Premier Danielle Smith (the 19th premier of Alberta and leader of the United Conservative Party (UCP) has stated that Alberta will respect the democratic process if a citizen-led petition gathers enough support to trigger a referendum on separation in 2026. While she doesn't support secession, she's opened the door to public debate.

Many Albertans feel economically disadvantaged by federal policies, particularly those affecting the oil and gas sector. The province contributes heavily to Canada's economy but often feels underrepresented in Ottawa. This movement seems more like a pressure tactic than a serious roadmap to secession. Still, it's a fascinating case of regional identity, economic grievance, and political theater.

Recent Polling Insights on Alberta Secession Sentiment

Here's a snapshot of how Albertans are currently feeling about the idea of separating from Canada, based on multiple polls conducted in 2025:

• Support for Separation: Roughly 30% of Albertans say they would vote to separate from Canada if a referendum were held today. However, only 17–19% say they'd "definitely" vote yes, suggesting that strong support remains a minority view.
• Opposition to Separation: About 67% of Albertans would vote against separation, showing a clear majority still favor staying within Canada.
• Attachment to Identity: 44% identify primarily as Canadian, while 21% identify primarily as Albertan, and 32% say both equally.
• Interestingly, the number of Albertans who feel more attached to Canada than Alberta has grown from 20% to 34% over the past five years.
• Joining the U.S.? Only 17% support Alberta becoming a U.S. state, and 22% say they'd vote yes in a referendum to join the United States.
• Regional Grievances: Just 24% of Albertans feel their province is respected by the rest of Canada, well below the national average of 52%.
• Many Albertans cite federal policies—especially around oil and gas—as a source of frustration and alienation.
• Political Divide: Among United Conservative Party (UCP) supporters, 54% say they'd vote for separation, while Alberta NDP supporters are overwhelmingly opposed.
• Premier Danielle Smith faces a split voter base, making it tricky to navigate the issue politically.

The Potential Influence of Donald Trump on Alberta's Separation Movement

As Alberta's relationship with Ottawa continues to face challenges—particularly regarding resource policy and feelings of Western alienation—the potential influence of external political figures, such as President Donald Trump, becomes an intriguing factor. Accordingly, President Trump's Potential Influence Key Vectors are:

1. Amplifying Alienation and Populist Rhetoric

Donald Trump is well known for his ability to tap into and magnify feelings of grievance and alienation. If Trump, whether as a U.S. president, media personality, or influential figure, were to support Alberta's complaints against the Canadian federal government publicly, his endorsement could significantly embolden separatist sympathies, especially among UCP supporters already inclined in that direction. Trump's populist messaging could reinforce narratives of "elite" versus "ordinary people," paralleling some Albertan frustrations with Ottawa.

2. Economic Arguments: Oil, Gas, and Trade

Given that Alberta's economy is heavily tied to the oil and gas industries that Trump has vocally supported, his argument that Alberta's interests align better with an energy-friendly U.S. administration could be compelling. Trump might promise enhanced trade, investment, or regulatory support if Alberta were to seek closer economic ties with the U.S., potentially fueling arguments for greater autonomy or even separation. This could resonate with Albertans disillusioned by federal policies perceived as hostile to the province's industries.

3. Media Attention and Polarization

If Trump were to comment on Alberta's situation via social media or in major speeches, it could draw international attention to the province's grievances. This spotlight may polarize discourse within Alberta, invigorating separatist sentiment among some and hardening opposition among others, similar to the dynamics seen in U.S. politics under Trump's leadership.

4. Cross-Border Conservative Networks

Trump's political movement has energized conservative activists across North America. If he encouraged U.S. conservative groups to support Alberta's cause via donations, events, or messaging, it might provide organizational resources and amplify separatist voices within the province.

Donald Trump's influence could amplify separatist sentiment among a segment of the Alberta population, particularly those already feeling alienated by Ottawa and aligned with UCP-style conservatism. However, polling suggests most Albertans do not currently support separation, and there is little appetite for joining the United States. While Trump could inject energy and attention into the debate, significant structural, legal, and cultural barriers would remain. Ultimately, Alberta's future is likely to be shaped more by domestic politics and economic realities than by the words or actions of any foreign political figure.

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Donald Trump's Chances of Winning

The current opinion polls support the expectation that Trump will likely be chosen as the next President of the United States. According to a CNN opinion poll conducted among registered voters in early February, 49% of respondents said they would vote for Trump, compared to 45% who chose Biden, showing a 4%p lead for Trump. Moreover, Biden's physical and mental fitness could be a game-changer that would benefit Trump as well.

Additionally, the economy is traditionally the most critical issue determining voters' preferences in U.S. presidential elections. The prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Hamas war, coupled with the ongoing economic downturn in the United States, would work favorably for Trump. It is difficult to deny that the current situation favors Trump, considering the backdrop of Obama's victory over John McCain, who had the most significant margin in history in the 2008 presidential election. This victory was fueled by voter criticism of the worsening economic indicators under the Bush administration and the prolonged Iraq war.

However, the revised election laws seem to provide a huge advantage for Trump. In the United States, election laws are determined by state legislatures. However, recently, states expected to serve as battlegrounds in the 2024 presidential election have strengthened regulations regarding identification and vote-by-mail processes. For example, Georgia, a swing state in the presidential election, decided not to permit mail-in voting, which processes all the procedures electronically for the 2024 presidential election instead of 2022.

Regarding North Carolina, another swing state, while photo identification for mail-in voting was not mandatory in the 2020 election, it will be required for the upcoming election. In the United States, where activities such as taking photographs, obtaining and maintaining identification cards, and visiting polling stations are not as simple and easy as they are in Korea, such changes could pose significant challenges to voter turnout, particularly among the main support base of the Democratic Party, who are in the low-income group, particularly communities of color where the proportion of low-income individuals is relatively high.

Joe Biden's Chances of Re-election

It is a well-known fact that voters tend to prefer maintaining somewhat unsatisfactory current conditions over uncertain changes. Moreover, if the outlook of the U.S. economy improves from the second half of the year and a potential decrease in interest rates becomes a reality, it could lead to favorable developments for Biden's victory. Additionally, it could serve as an opportunity for a turnaround for Biden, who is grappling with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. A prolonged, 'sluggish' war tends to act unfavorably to the ruling party and the President during an election. However, the outbreak, temporary escalation, or resolution of wars can stimulate patriotism or be recognized as achievements of the incumbent government, thereby favorably influencing re-election. Therefore, it is difficult to rule out scenarios where the Biden administration seeks to demonstrate America's position and strength as a global leader and garner national support by temporarily escalating wars or actively ending wars this year because there is quite some time left until Election Day.

Factors that make it difficult to easily anticipate Trump's re-election include ongoing legal battles surrounding the Jan. 6 riot, sexual harassment, fraud, tampering with and forgery of corporate documents. Some analysts suggest that these legal challenges could instead galvanize Trump supporters. However, over three-quarters of Americans still believe that democracy based on the rule of law and the people's will is the best form of government and political systems.

It remains uncertain whether these Americans will continue to ignore the true colors of American democracy through Trump's legal cases during the presidential campaign. Nikki Haley's emergence supports such predictions. The emergence of Haley indicates significant discontent among Republican supporters towards extreme and exclusive thinking and unethical politicians. Hence, it is difficult to exclude the possibility of these individuals opting for a moderate American-first approach represented by Biden rather than the extreme conservatism of Trump, who may have issues with legal and moral qualifications. Considering the recent close margins of victory in swing states during the last U.S. presidential election, where a 1-2%p difference determined victory, it would be difficult for Trump to secure a win if he neglects the issue of defection of moderate Republican voters.

Trump might not win, but Biden Could Lose.

The Wall Street Journal's pollsters matched President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in the seven key swing states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. 

Trump is ahead in each of those swing states but Wisconsin, where he and Biden are tied. In swing state polls, the former President has nearly equaled his performance in the 2020 general election. Trump lost every one of these states except for North Carolina, which was achingly close for Democrats. However, he is starting right where he left off.

Here, it is more useful not to use one poll but to turn to averages. In the Decision Desk HQ averages for the seven states, Trump is underperforming his 2020 vote share by 1 point. Biden is lagging by 5.9 points.

For example, in Nevada, Trump enjoys a 3.8-point lead on average: 45.9 percent, compared to Biden's 42.1 percent. Biden won there in 2020 by 2.4 points, 50.1 percent to Trump's 47.7 percent. Trump is lagging his past performance by a not insignificant 1.8 points, but Biden is sucking wind with an 8-point underperformance. This suggests not that Trump is taking votes from Biden but that Biden's 2020 supporters have not returned to him.

The trend holds across the swing states, but the Michigan average is the purest version. Trump currently leads by 4.5 points, 47.2 points to 42.7 points. In 2020, Biden won by 2.3 points, 50.6 points to Trump's 47.8 points. Trump is only off his 2020 game by a little more than half a point, while Biden is lagging with almost 8 points.

In Georgia, Trump was ahead by 3.8 points and hit his 2020 performance within a tenth of a point, while Biden was 4 points behind his own pace.

In Arizona, Trump leads by 4.2 points but lags behind his 2020 result by 3.9 points, while Biden is 8.4 points in arrears.

North Carolina is much the same: Trump leads by 5.1 points, only 1.1 points off his 2020 showing, while Biden is underperforming by 4.9 points. The same goes for Wisconsin: Trump is up 1.5 points and 3.1 points ahead of his 2020 performance, while Biden is 5.3 points worse off than 2020.

In Pennsylvania, Biden leads by .6 points on average, with 46.5 percent support compared to 45.9 percent for Trump. It is his only lead in any of the averages we have explored.  Trump is 2.8 points behind his 2020 performance, while Biden misses by 3.4 points. Biden's best state is also his least lousy state. It may sound tautological, but it points to a critical dynamic under the surface of this election.

In those Wall Street Journal surveys, pollsters asked respondents to rate the economy's strength in their state and the nation. Unsurprisingly, voters had miserable things to say about things nationally, but with some crucial differences. The two states with the lowest ratings for "not so good/poor" on the national economy were Wisconsin (57 percent) and Pennsylvania (60 percent). We can safely assume that those states have less economic pessimism than the other five.

This is where the weirdness of a repeat election comes in. If Trump were winning in these states, we would see him over-performing his 2020 numbers as he took votes away from Biden. However, to an uncanny degree, Trump has settled back into his old groove. Nevertheless, we see Biden losing, dramatically underperforming his priors but without the corresponding boost for Trump. These missing Biden voters are floating.  The economic numbers in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania suggest that as voter sentiment about the economy improves, Biden may bring a good chunk of those folks back into the fold.

It is tempting to focus on the weaknesses in both candidates' bases, but as these swing state averages show, Biden's hopes rest primarily on whether the next few months bring rising hopes about the economy or deepening pessimism. Trump, who has always had a high floor but a low ceiling, looks almost topped out to me. Biden could lose if those swing state voters do not feel the lift, but if they do, the incumbent has the most room to grow.

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In the early days of the war, U.S. President Joe Biden averred that "there is no going back to the status quo as it stood on October the 6th." Biden then spelled out what he meant: a new post-conflict Gaza where Hamas cannot terrorize Israel and an effort by all parties to work toward a two-state solution. U.S. President Joe Biden called for "a revitalized Palestinian Authority." Accordingly, U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby responded to the plan, saying that "the Palestinian people should have a voice and a vote through a revitalized Palestinian Authority. However, the possibility of a brighter future for Gaza hinges on an intelligent plan to empower Gazans who share the will to reach for it.

Rumors reported that there is an extensive effort in the Middle East to transform Hamas into a political party in exile, and the most apparent scenario will be an entire Israeli military government" and then "the newly formed government. The most likely scenarios are as follows:

The Palestinian Authority (PA), which was created in the wake of the Oslo peace process in the mid-1990s, is eager to rule Gaza after Hamas was removed after running the Gaza Strip since 2007. However, this is not a tremendous best-case scenario.

The PA was ousted from Gaza by Hamas in 2007 and is unlikely to embrace the idea of returning in the wake of an Israeli military campaign to unseat its rival. Moreover, the PA has not held a presidential election since 2005, when the now 87-year-old Mahmoud Abbas was first elected. An overwhelming majority of Palestinians see the PA as corrupt and inefficient (a recent poll found that 80% of Palestinians are calling for its leader, Mahmoud Abbas, to resign). For the Palestinian government to have any authority, it would take new elections, significant resources, and support from the Arabic countries and donors.

The second alternative scheme is Mohammed Dahlan, a Gazan politician in exile, who was Mr. Abbas's national security adviser before Hamas took over Gaza in 2007 and who advises the United Arab Emirates. It has close ties to Egypt's president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Public insights into what Arab governments privately plan for the battered enclave after the war ends. Mr. Dahlan is foreseen as a new Palestinian leader of Gaza ruling with Arab state support, such as Saudis and Emiratis, who will help build "an independent economy, a normal education, normal housing, and a civil society."

Mr. Dahlan outlined it as one under which Israel and Hamas would hand power to a new and independent Palestinian leader who could rebuild Gaza under the protection of an Arab peacekeeping force. He coordinates regularly with other Palestinian opposition leaders in a loose network and a vast network of support in Gaza, seeking to unseat Mr. Abbas. Mr. Dahlan will most likely be the new Palestinian leader who would assume responsibility for Gaza and the parts of the West Bank currently administered by the Palestinian Authority, replacing Mahmoud Abbas, the authority's 88-year-old president, who would retain a ceremonial role.

In the third scenario, a Gazan leader from the premise of anti-Hamas sentiments who suffered from the war tactics of Hamas sacrifices civilians using them as human shields for public relations purposes, leaving Gazan civilians hungry, homeless, injured, and dead, Hamas bases troops and missiles in mosques, churches, schools, hospitals, and private homes. Accordingly, the clans in each of Gaza's five districts could start ruling their cities alone.

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy conducted a poll of Gazans in July 2023 that shows a good percentage of Gazans are looking for a change under different leadership and a better life away from wars and conflicts. Its findings include:

• Forty percent of Gazans view Hamas negatively.
• Forty-two percent hope that "someday we can be friends with Israelis since we are all human beings after all."
• Forty-seven percent say the Abraham Accords have had a positive impact.
• Forty-seven percent say, "It would be better for us if we were part of Israel than in PA or Hamas-ruled lands."
• Fifty-two percent view the Muslim Brotherhood negatively.
• Sixty-one percent wish more Israeli jobs were offered in Gaza and the West Bank.
• Sixty-three percent seek direct personal contact and dialogue with Israelis.
• Seventy-two percent concur that "Hamas has been unable to improve the lives of Palestinians in Gaza."
• Seventy-nine percent believe that "Internal political and economic reform is more important for us than any foreign policy issue."
• Eighty-two percent agree that "Palestinians should push harder to replace their political leaders with more effective and less corrupt ones."

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The Ben-Gurion Canal project is an ambitious proposal by Israel to construct a massive canal connecting the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. This 160-mile (257 km) canal would traverse the Negev Desert and the southern end of the Gulf of Aqaba, bypassing the Suez Canal and challenging Egypt's long-standing monopoly on the crucial shipping route between Europe and Asia.

The proposed canal would originate from the Israeli port city of Eilat on the Red Sea, cross the Jordanian border, flow through the Arabah Valley, enter the Dead Sea, and then head northward around the Gaza Strip before reaching the Mediterranean. The estimated cost of this colossal undertaking is a staggering USD 100 billion, with significant security concerns arising from the constant military threat in the region.

Speculations abound that Israel's desire to control Gaza and eliminate the influential Hamas organization is inextricably linked to unlocking the immense economic opportunities presented by the Ben-Gurion Canal. The potential economic gains from this project are projected to far outweigh the astronomical construction costs, with the canal expected to become highly profitable within a short period. By sharing the financial burden with co-developers, the canal's construction would become more affordable and manageable.

Proponents of the project envision the canal generating an annual revenue of USD 10 billion as international trade between the East and West continues to soar. This strategic waterway would not only create a direct and cost-effective alternative to the Suez Canal but also serve as a potent tool in restraining China's burgeoning economic might and its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative.

The Ben-Gurion Canal would boast remarkable engineering specifications, with each of its two branches designed to be 50 meters deep and approximately 200 meters wide. These dimensions would surpass the Suez Canal's depth by 10 meters, allowing for the seamless passage of the world's largest ships measuring up to 300 meters in length and 110 meters in width. Additionally, the canal's rocky walls would require minimal maintenance compared to the sandy shores of the Suez Canal.

Beyond its economic and strategic significance, the Ben-Gurion Canal could also serve as a catalyst for regional cooperation and peace. In an optimistic scenario where Israel and Palestine reach a mutually agreeable solution, such as a two-state model or a union of independent states, the canal could traverse both territories, fostering economic interdependence and serving as a symbolic bridge between the two peoples.

While the Ben-Gurion Canal faces numerous challenges, including immense costs, security risks, and potential environmental concerns, its proponents argue that the potential rewards far outweigh the risks. As the global economy continues to evolve and power dynamics shift, the Ben-Gurion Canal could emerge as a game-changer, reshaping trade routes, bolstering regional economies, and potentially redefining geopolitical alliances in the Middle East and beyond.

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On Aug. 2, 2023, The Financial Times published a report on the future of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, President Joe Biden's administration's pressure for normalization between the two countries. On Aug. 9, 2023, The Wall Street Journal published an article illustrating that Saudis Agree with the US on the Path to Normalizing the Kingdom's Ties with Israel, and officials of the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia are negotiating details of the agreement they hope to cement within nine-to-12 months willing to make Saudi Arabia the uncontested leader of the Middle East backed with soft power and vast, oil-generated coffers.

The general principles of the primary memorandum are that Saudi Arabia will recognize the state of Israel, and in return, Israel's right-wing government will make concessions to the Palestinians. Also, according to the same agreement, the United States would provide Saudi Arabia with security guarantees and share technical knowledge about nuclear energy.

The Saudis want significant concessions from Israel, which would support the creation of a separate Palestinian state. At the same time, the US is pressuring Saudi Arabia to limit its relations with China. For example, the United States wants assurances that the Kingdom will not allow China to build military bases on Saudi Arabian soil. The US also wants to restrict the use of Huawei technology and that the Saudis continue to use US dollars, not Chinese money, for oil sales. Accordingly, US President Joe Biden sent one of his closest advisers to the Saudi capital to discuss the issue, but Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said that "there is still a long way to go" to establish relations between the two countries.

Biden's efforts come as the US presidential elections approach this year, and the US president said, during a meeting with donors for his campaign, that "convergence may be close."  Israeli Chancellor Hanegbi revealed in an interview with the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation that the entire agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel is not under discussion, but there was a "positive surprise a few months ago when the White House said that it was making efforts to reach an agreement with the Saudis."

Diplomats say Saudi Arabia is seeking concessions from the United States, including security guarantees, support for a civilian nuclear program, and access to weapons, in return for normalizing relations with Israel. Saudi officials said the Kingdom would also need a significant positive step from Israel toward the Palestinians. Saudi demands of Israel could include a halt to settlement expansion and a pledge not to annex the West Bank, which the Palestinians want as the heart of a future state.

Saudi Arabia considers itself a leader in the Muslim world, so it has more significant obligations than other Arab countries that have already signed Accords with Israel. The Kingdom put forward an Arab peace initiative to Israel in 2002, which included Saudi recognition of the existence of Israel in exchange for allowing the establishment of a Palestinian state, and Saudi leaders publicly affirmed their adherence to this position.

How the mechanism of peace works

In General, for any peace initiative to succeed, it should consider the Geopolitics of the area of interest, Political Communications and Media coverage, International Law guidelines, Economics, Business, Science, Technology, Arts, and Culture dimensions. Accordingly, the mechanism of application will be as follows:

1- Raising awareness and advocating for issues relating to peace.

2- Produce training materials considering the regional area's culture and languages. This is a critical point to consider. For Example, The region was abuzz with slogans for the new deal (Peace for Prosperity), but nothing captured what was happening and 'the deal of the century,' a phrase coined by Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi and extensively adopted by Arab media destroyed the Peace plan.

3- Support peace initiatives and integrate them into the regional cultures.

4- Creating culturally and geographically specific research on issues related to peacebuilding and allowing for essential follow-up and long-term support.

5- Supporting the social role in peacebuilding and supporting NGOs.

Accordingly, the Saudi approach is based on most of the points mentioned above and illustrated as follows:

1-  Request from the United States to settle the arms deals that the Biden administration suspended and conduct a defense alliance, including establishing an entire nuclear program.

2- The Palestinian cause. Riyadh called Israel to start a peace process based on the two-state solution principle. Despite the clear cozying up, the Saudis still say the Israelis will have to offer the Palestinians a deal, or a variation of that, something the Saudis can build upon. The starting position should be Israeli acceptance of the Arab Peace Initiative, promoted by the late King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia in 2002. The plan calls for the establishment of a Palestinian state on the borders of 1967.

3- Limiting threats:  Saudi Arabia has made the shift to limit the threats it faces to no more than two enemies: Iran and Sunni Islamist political opposition. These happen to be seen as the two threats facing Israel as well, which brought both countries to an unlikely alliance. Iran and Saudi Arabia are already engaged in a cold war across the Middle East. Israel is rattled at the prospect of a nuclear Iran. Saudi Arabia sees combating organized Islamist opposition as a priority, especially after their Arab Spring successes. Israel shares the same concerns as the country fears a repeat of the Arab Spring could lead to Islamist governments taking over from current unpopular regimes and later gaining control of vast military resources.

4- Internal Challenges: Warming relations with Israel have also been a recognized approach for Arab regimes whenever they face internal challenges, to drum up American and Western support against local opposition by appearing 'moderate,' 'open,' and 'tolerant' – three words now highly valued by Arab regimes facing survival issues.

5- The Game changer: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is the biggest game changer. He is keen to make a foreign policy mark to eclipse local and international doubts about his youth, governing ability, and statesmanship. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is surrounded by advisors known for sympathetic positions towards Israel and hostility to Islamist groups such as Hamas.

6- Economic opportunities: To ease the deal's wheels, the Saudis tout economic opportunities with the wealthy, oil-rich countries of the Gulf. Perks will include direct telecommunication, Israeli airlines flying over the airspace of the Gulf States, and no trade restrictions with Israeli companies. Israeli officials themselves estimate immediate benefits upwards of $45bn.

The Future of the Middle East Energy Trade Following the Abraham Accord

The historical peace agreement and full normalization of relations between Israel and the Gulf States could lead to more substantial economic, political, technological, health care, education, tourism, and cultural ties between the countries' governments and their people. Moreover, the Accord is the foundation for expanding energy trade from the Gulf States through Israel to supply the world. Abraham Accord is a lucrative opportunity to carry natural Gas across Saudi Arabia to the Trans-Israel Pipeline and Europe. The Pipe is used to pump the unloaded oil in Ashkelon from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to tankers in the Gulf of Aqaba for transport to China and South Korea.

Qatar plans to increase its annual liquefied natural Gas by 64% to reach 126 million tons by 2027.  A Saudi gas deal with Qatar will help the Saudi Kingdom solve the shortage in its gas supply. It will replace the 900,000 b/d of liquid fuels that the Kingdom used for industrial and power generation, generating more than $10 billion of additional export revenue.

In October 2020, MED-RED Land Bridge, an Emirati/Israeli-owned company, and EAPC, the Israeli-owned pipeline company, signed a memorandum of understanding to make Israel a transshipment hub by storing and transporting oil from the UAE to Europe using the Trans-Israel Pipeline. The UAE has a 4 million Bbl /d production capacity, sells most of its oil to Asia, and sells refined products to Europe via tankers traversing the Red Sea. Other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are likely to follow, most likely Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

The UAE oil will connect the Shaybah Abqaiq pipeline to the East-West pipeline. The Qatari Gas will connect to the East-West pipeline, which transports the Saudi raw materials from Ras Tannurah on the country's East to Yanbu's western port at the Red Sea. The East-West pipeline is about 1170 km and 5 million Bbl. /day (planned to increase it to 6.5 Bbl. /day) capacity and its parallel gas pipeline has a capacity of 290 thousand barrels daily. Connecting the East-West pipeline with the Trans-Israel Pipeline will be the deal of the century.

The oil / Gas deal between the Gulf States and Israel will benefit all parties. First, the Gulf States will no longer worry about Iran's piracy and sabotaging the oil tankers. Second, using the Trans-Israel Pipeline offers an advantage over the Suez Canal, especially since the Canal cannot accommodate the giant supertankers. The Gulf States charter two small tankers through the Canal instead of one supertanker and pay $300,000-$400,000 / one way for each tanker. Using the Trans-Israel Pipeline will be significantly cheaper than using the Suez Canal.

Expanding the East-West Pipeline will provide more flexibility in exporting oil for Saudi Arabia and rerouting the 2.5 million Bbl. /day that the Saudi export through the Strait of Hormuz to Yanbu at the Red Sea in scenarios where the Strait of Hormuz is closed or partially blocked due to aggression from the Saudi rival, Iran, or due to any clashes between Iran and the Saudi allies USA and Israel. Accordingly, connecting the East-West Pipeline to the Trans-Israel Pipeline will create a safe alternative for exporting oil to the Gulf States.

The New World Order is a Geo-economical Regional Order

The Russian-Ukrainian war is the turning point from a bipolar to an emerging multipolar world order. The collapse of the Soviet center of power was followed by the triumph of a West that aspired for global control, tried to impose its model as a universal solution upon the diverse world, and overestimated its strength politically, economically, and culturally, forfeiting much of what they could otherwise have achieved.

Accordingly, the growing influence of non-Western states started growing and rising, ending the economic colonization and became an undeniable and inevitable trend centered in four regions: the East Mediterranean, South America, Russia's hemisphere, and China's hemisphere; represented by China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Turkey, and Israel.

The emerged markets represented by the four trends start seeking non-interference in their internal affairs, diversification of economies and social systems, full sovereignty of their natural resources, fair prices of their raw materials, and freedom to industrialize their nations with appropriate techniques and technologies, reforming of the international monetary system to line with development needs, international exchange of ideas, expertise, and assistance, and better participation and involvement in international trade.

The primary and significant turning point in the new Geo-economical regional order was The Abraham Accord, An Accord that concentrated on creating an exemplary model of tolerance, coexistence, and pluralism in the Middle East; the Accord opened the doors for many prosperous regional Geo-economical agreements that reinstate the East Mediterranean region to stand again to connect the East and West economically utilizing an existed coined trade agreement and coining new ones as needed.

In November 2020, 20 countries from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five regional partners signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), forming the most significant free trade agreement in history to stimulate intra-East Asian integration around China and Japan, and linking technology, manufacturing, agriculture, and natural resources of North and Southeast Asia with the world.

The aftermath of the RCEP and Abraham Accord motivated every growing economy and many countries from the West to look for a seat in any emerging super economy to keep a slice of the cake. Accordingly, On February 1, 2021, the United Kingdom formally applied to join the CPTPP. The East Mediterranean region, mainly and foremost, is an area with many growing economies, rich in natural resources, lived many conflicts caused by the superpowers for decades, and was the fastest movers through bilateral economic and trade deals recently.

In April 2022, the United Arab Emirates launched an online service providing detailed information on the UAE-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) as a part of the major trade deal signed in February 2022 and entered into force on May 1, 2022. In May 2022, Israel and the United Arab Emirates penned a multi-billion dollar free trade agreement, with a stated target of increasing annual bilateral trade to more than $10 billion over the next five years; the trade agreement is the largest ever between Israel and any Arab country.

In July 2022, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates signed a free trade agreement, strengthening economic ties between Southeast Asia's largest economy and the significant oil-producing Gulf state. The UAE agreements kept flowing. In July 2022, India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the United States had their first leaders meeting of the group intending to tackle the most significant challenges confronting the world with a particular focus on joint investments and new initiatives in water, energy, transportation, space, health, and food security.

The UAE has engaged in talks about establishing similar arrangements, whether as part of the GCC, with the European Union, Japan, Australia, South Korea, India, Brazil, China, Argentina, Malaysia, Pakistan, Paraguay, Turkey, and Uruguay. In October 2021, Turkish and African leaders signed a Cooperation Framework Arrangement to promote investment and trade under AfCFTA to $50B annual trade between Turkey and Africa.

In November 2021, Malaysia and Turkey finalized an agreement package to expand FTA by the Middle of 2022 to cover trade in services, investment, and electronic commerce. Turkey signed similar expansion trade agreements with Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, Korea, Pakistan, and England. In May 2022, Turkey and the UAE signed comprehensive trade agreements to boost their cooperation in a wide range of fields from $8 billion to $10 billion target shortly, by increasing mutual investment opportunities, including but not limited to the transportation projects that will connect the Gulf region with Europe through Iraq.

To reshape the economics of the East Mediterranean, reshaping the political order became necessary. Accordingly, in February 2022, Turkey reshaped and healed its relationship with the United Arab Emirates and welcomed Israeli President Isaac Herzog in March. The last step of reshaping the area was consolidating the strained relations with Saudi Arabia. Let's suppose the four emerging regional powers, Turkey, Israel, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, can work for their respective causes less aggressively. In that case, a new super economy will emerge in the East Mediterranean region after the fall of the unipolar economy.

Energy is the Key Player in the New East Mediterranean Geo-Economical Order

The world reached the end of the world order that has strengthened the position of the dollar and the United States for decades. It is a matter of time before the global recession becomes official, and severe crises will erupt in the Western stock markets, leading to stagflation. The only reason the global economy is still holding is the fear of a destructive new world war as a solution to fix the problem, which is escalating daily due to the shortages of energy supplies, which will further exacerbate the inflation crisis.

Turkey's unique location, robust market economy, well-established tradition of co-operating with the West, and large armed forces, second in size after the US in NATO, controlling the Straits and stabilizing the Black Sea region, balancing the Caucasus region, an energy bridge between the rich natural resources of the Caspian basin and Central Asia, East Mediterranean basin, and the Western world provides geo-strategic and leverages for international influence affairs. The geographic location entitles Turkey to be a critical Geo-economical player as well.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine pushed Europe to scramble to secure alternatives to energy imports from Moscow, adding an urgent desire to take advantage of the region's sizeable offshore gas reserves, making Israeli Gas the most viable choice. However, the tensions have been escalating between Greece and Turkey for several decades over the political settlement on Cyprus, the demarcation of the maritime borders of the disputed exclusive economic zones in the eastern Mediterranean, and Ankara's unease over the militarization of Turkish islands in the Aegean, in violation of international treaties. The tension between Turkey and Greece was exacerbated by the discovery of large gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean, which compounded the problem of overlapping maritime areas.

Building the pipeline connecting Cypriot and Israeli Gas to Turkey to transfer it to European markets via the existing natural gas pipeline that crosses Anatolia is a comprehensive settlement deal that will glorify the area and avoid a military confrontation between Greece and Turkey. Discussing ways to include Turkey in regional hydrocarbon development partnerships such as the East Mediterranean Gas Forum would be a goodwill gesture; it means that all sides will be able to save face and give Turkey a chance to demonstrate its commitment to dialogue.

While there is reluctance among European leaders to engage with Turkey, priority must be given to focusing on results. Russia's unnecessary war against Ukraine has suddenly changed the energy outlook for Europe. With the four countries, Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Turkey, heading into a highly competitive election year, preserving the fragile status quo may seem the best bet. However, containing the outbreak of any future conflict is not a satisfactory long-term solution, and the focus must be on bold and creative solutions. In any election cycle, a crisis's risk is escalating and highly costly.

The Need for a Rapid Transit Infrastructure

The Israeli Express train, which Israel intends to launch to link the Red and Mediterranean seas to compete with the Suez Canal, will also be a game changer. The electric train will be built to revive crowded neighborhoods and streets, establish educational institutions, and build commercial buildings, luxury housing, and entertainment venues.

The Israeli government is investing heavily in transportation infrastructure, and the results will be evident in the coming decades. These plans will realize available and reliable public transportation throughout Israel and the Middle East, providing advanced transportation solutions in urban areas and integrating advanced technology.

The electric train will also allow a continuous train trip from the Emirates to the cities of Israel, and the railway line to Jordan, Egypt, the Emirates, and Saudi Arabia will contribute to improving relations between Israel and these countries. It will allow tourists, business people, and goods to reach these destinations easily and quickly.

The Economic Implications

As part of broader engagements under the Abraham Accords, the potential normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia heralds a significant shift towards economic integration and cooperation that could redefine the Middle Eastern economic landscape. This move aligns with Saudi Arabia's ambitious Vision 2030, aiming to diversify and modernize its economy away from oil dependency. The inclusion of Israel, known for its tech-savvy and innovative economy, presents vast economic potential for mutual growth and development​​.

While energy and infrastructure developments are pivotal and already underway, the emergence of open, friendly relations between Israel and Gulf Arab states, including the UAE and Bahrain, has established a new dynamic in the region. These relationships, fostered on shared strategic imperatives and economic interests, are poised to expand into numerous sectors such as technology, health tech, agriculture, climate innovation, cybersecurity, and financial services. The groundbreaking normalization agreements, symbolized by the Abraham Accords, have paved the way for direct investment and bilateral trade and spurred discussions on joint investments in third countries, enhancing regional economic integration and cooperation.

Two other Arab states, Bahrain and Morocco, followed the Emirati example and signed on to the Abraham Accords. The Accords have unlocked numerous opportunities across various domains, including trade and tourism. The UAE has welcomed over a million Israeli visitors since formalizing bilateral relations.

Today, the UAE-Israel economic and trade ties are a testament to the accords' success, showcasing the vast potential for regional economic integration. Post-accords, UAE-Israel bilateral trade surged from merely tens of millions of dollars before 2020 to an estimated $3 billion in 2023, with Emirati officials predicting it could exceed $1 trillion over the next decade. The focus on Israeli technology and innovation, coupled with the UAE's project management and logistics expertise, aims to foster multilateral deals with Israel in third countries, underlining the strategic shift towards a knowledge-based economy and high-tech investments​​.

Region's concerted efforts to diversify economies away from oil dependency:

We can see a shift towards the Middle East as a region of strategic importance and influence in global affairs for the following reasons:

1. Economic Growth and Diversification
2. Geopolitical Influence
3. Advancements in Technology and Innovation
4. Financial Power and Investment
5. Sustainable Energy Initiatives
6. Cultural and Tourism Development
7. Strategic Trade Agreements and Partnerships

As of January 2024, six countries, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran, joined BRICS. In the current global landscape, characterized by a shift towards multipolarity, the expansion of the BRICS bloc – comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – reflects a strategic realignment in international relations. This adjustment is particularly relevant to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, signaling a potentially transformative phase in the global order.

The recent expansion of BRICS underscores the group's intention to diversify its geopolitical and economic alliances. Pivotal players in the MENA region, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, view their prospective BRICS membership as an opportunity to augment their global influence and diversify their international partnerships. This move is seen as a strategic endeavor to balance their established relationships with Western powers, particularly the United States, with emerging ties to other influential nations, notably China. Furthermore, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE in BRICS could have profound implications for global energy policies and trade dynamics, given their status as major oil producers. It symbolizes the desire of these countries to navigate the complexities of international relations while pursuing strategic objectives that resonate with their national interests and global aspirations.

Saudi Vision 2030: A Transformative Agenda supporting economic diversification

2030 will commemorate 100 years since the unification into the single nation of Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 represents a fundamental shift in the country's approach to economic diversification, social reform, and global engagement. Launched in 2016 by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Vision 2030 seeks to reduce Saudi Arabia's dependence on oil, diversify its economy, and develop public service sectors. This strategic framework aims to cultivate an environment conducive to sustainable economic growth, innovation, and a more inclusive society.

Tourism is increasingly recognized as a pivotal driver of economic growth in Saudi Arabia and a key pillar in the Saudi Vision 2030. The Kingdom is strategically investing in a wide array of mega-projects, notably the $500 billion Neom project along the Red Sea coast, aiming to redefine the concept of urban living while attracting tourists from around the globe. These initiatives are part of Saudi Arabia's ambitious Vision 2030, which seeks to diversify the economy away from oil by developing sectors such as tourism, entertainment, and sports.

The UAE and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are on a mission to become leading global tourist destinations. This vision is supported by their efforts to host major global sports events, which serve as a magnet for international visitors and as a catalyst for regional tourism and infrastructure development.

For instance, the announcement that the FIFA World Cup 2034 will take place in KSA, following Qatar's hosting of the 2022 edition, marks a significant milestone in the region's sports tourism sector. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia's potential investment in the Indian Premier League (IPL) signifies a strategic move to align with globally recognized sports franchises, potentially transforming the sports entertainment landscape in the region.

The expansion of Formula 1 (F1) to include a second circuit in KSA, alongside existing Grand Prix (G.P.) events in the UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar, highlights the Gulf region's growing prominence in the global sports arena. Additionally, the Public Investment Fund (PIF)-backed LIV Tour with the Professional Golfers' Association (PGA) merger is poised to elevate the golfing experience, attracting enthusiasts and professionals alike to the region.

Qatar Sports Investments (QSI), the owner of the renowned Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) football club, plans to merge its padel competition circuit with the rival World Padel Tour. This initiative aims to create a global professional tour for the sport, further enriching the region's sports tourism offerings.

These ambitious projects and investments underscore the Gulf region's commitment to diversifying its economic base through tourism, sports, and entertainment. By hosting prestigious international events and developing world-class facilities, the UAE and KSA are enhancing their global tourist destination status and fostering economic growth, cultural exchange, and international cooperation.

The Gulf's Economic Resilience as Dealmaking Stays Strong

Gulf dealmaking still enjoys strong tailwinds despite geopolitical and global economic uncertainties. That was evident during Saudi Arabia's flagship investment forum, Davos in the Desert, and other high-profile investment-related events in the second part of 2023 and early 2024.

Saudi dealmaking has continued, such as the Kingdom's ACWA Power signing an agreement to develop a $4 billion green hydrogen project in Egypt on December 20. Meanwhile, November also saw Middle Eastern airlines in full force during the Dubai Airshow, when Emirates inked a Boeing deal valued at $52 billion. The threat of war also hasn't dampened investor appetite for Gulf IPOs: Dubai Taxi Company's late November listing received over $41 billion in investor orders for a $315 million public offering – record demand for a Dubai IPO.

The GCC region has seen a flurry of IPOs driven by strong investor demand despite a global economic downturn that is expected to continue. In 2023, IPOs in the Middle East accounted for 45% of EMEA volumes, making it the 3^rd best year since 2007

The region's private equity (P.E.) landscape is also flourishing, with Saudi Arabia's Jadwa Investments acquiring the company behind Allo Beirut, signaling intentions to expand beyond the UAE. Furthermore, the announcement of raising 2 billion riyals ($530 million) for a new Middle East-focused fund highlights the appetite for regional investments and the potential for significant economic impacts.

On the sovereign investment side, the transformation of the Kingdom's primary investment vehicle, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), from a small holding company to an international dealmaker and manager of mega projects has been one of the biggest successes of the diversification strategy. PIF disclosed that 23% of its AUM were international investments, 68% were local investments, and the remainder were treasury. With the $31.5 billion spent in 2023, the fund accounted for about a quarter of the almost $124 billion spent by sovereign wealth funds worldwide.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Jared Kushner has raised USD 2 billion from the Saudi sovereign wealth fund to invest in Israeli tech companies. The amount is part of a USD 3 billion private equity fund. Any deal would mark the first instance that Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund has invested in Israeli businesses, demonstrating another move into normalizing relations with Israel and capitalizing on the flourishing startup scene there.

Investment in Innovation and Technology

Israel, often dubbed the "Startup Nation," boasts one of the world's highest concentrations of startups per capita. According to the Startup Nation Central Finder, in 2022, Israeli tech companies raised $25.4 billion in funding, underscoring the country's attractiveness to global investors and its role in the international market​​. Furthermore, Israel's tech exports constitute a substantial portion of its total exports, exemplifying the sector's critical role in its economy. The Israel Export and International Cooperation Institute reported that in 2021, high-tech exports accounted for 54% of Israel's total exports.

With Dubai as a leading city, the UAE has established itself as a vibrant tech hub, attracting startups and global technology firms with its ambitious initiatives like the Dubai Blockchain Strategy and the establishment of Hub71, aiming to position the Emirates as a leading technology-driven economy. Similarly, Saudi Arabia fosters a culture of innovation, evident in projects such as Neom, a planned smart city that epitomizes the Kingdom's push toward becoming a global technology leader.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia have made substantial investments in technology and innovation. The UAE announced the National Innovation Strategy to become one of the most innovative nations in the world, focusing on renewable energy, transport, education, health, technology, water, and space. Saudi Arabia's PIF has invested billions in tech firms globally and is a significant investor in Softbank's Vision Fund, which funds technology companies across various sectors.

Conclusion

In a dynamic geopolitical landscape, the potential normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, heralded by the Abraham Accords, marks a pivotal moment poised to reshape the Middle Eastern economic and political fabric. This anticipated rapprochement, underpinned by the United States' diplomatic efforts, seeks to fortify Saudi Arabia's stature as a regional pacemaker, leveraging its economic prowess and strategic positioning. At the core of these discussions are fundamental concessions aimed at fostering a peaceful resolution to the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with Saudi Arabia championing significant steps toward the creation of a Palestinian state.

In light of these developments, the UAE continues to advocate for peace and stability in the Middle East, emphasizing the role of diplomacy in navigating the multifaceted landscape of regional politics. Through these efforts, the UAE aims to contribute to a future where cooperation and understanding prevail, enhancing the well-being and security of the region's people. This forward-looking stance reinforces the UAE's position as a key player in shaping the region's future and highlights the potential for transformative change through collaboration and mutual respect. As the Abraham Accords evolve, the promise of a new chapter in Middle Eastern diplomacy offers hope for lasting peace and prosperity.

Concurrently, this normalization drive intersects with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, an ambitious blueprint for economic diversification and innovation, minimizing oil dependency. Given its technological and entrepreneurial leadership, Israel's incorporation into this framework promises mutual benefits across sectors, including technology, health tech, and energy. These initiatives aim to enhance bilateral and regional economic integration and solidify a cooperative stance on shared geopolitical concerns, notably the threats posed by Iran and various regional insurgencies.

Moreover, this evolving alliance is expected to catalyze a broad spectrum of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements, enhancing tourism and fostering peace and prosperity. Initiatives like the proposed Israeli Express train and the development of an integrated Middle East to Europe economic corridor signify a strategic pivot towards infrastructural modernization and interconnectivity, promising to bridge divides and knit the region closer together.

The anticipated normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia is a testament to the shifting paradigms of Middle Eastern diplomacy and economic strategy. It encapsulates a collective aspiration for a stable, prosperous, and integrated region anchored in mutual respect, economic synergy, and a shared vision for a peaceful future. This transformative period heralds an era of potential peacebuilding, economic prosperity, and technological collaboration, setting a new course for the Middle East's role in the global geopolitical arena.

Dr. Raphael Nagel

Chairman at Tactical Management, focusing on carve-outs and companies in special situations. M&A and Corporate Law Consultant at Nagel & Partners. Chairman at The Abrahamic Business Circle.

Dr. Frank Musmar

Faculty| Academic Researcher | Middle East Politics Expert | Best Selling Writer | Advisory Board President | Dissertation and Proofreading specialist | Journalist ( Member of the International Federation of Journalists)

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Two years passed since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which brought death, suffering, and destruction to tens of millions of people, changed the face of Europe, rattled and shifted global politics. The West is taking a stand, supplying Ukraine with weapons and resources, trying hard to drain the Russian war machine of its revenue sources and essential goods and technology.

On February 23, the EU adopted the 13th package of sanctions against Russia. It focuses on further limiting Russia's access to military technologies, such as drones, and on listing additional companies and individuals involved in Russia's war effort. With this new package, the number of individual listings has reached over 2000, dealing a massive blow to those who enable Russia's illegal war against Ukraine.

Previous sanctions have significantly impacted Russia's foreign revenues and ruptured Russia's supply chains, limiting its access to Western technologies in critical industrial sectors. The focus now is on enforcement, particularly against circumvention of EU sanctions via third countries. This time, sanctions also target individuals and companies in China, Kazakhstan, India, Serbia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and Türkiye.

Notably, on the same day, February 23, the United States updated sanction lists against Russia, including approximately 600 individuals and entities from 11 countries that "facilitate evasion of sanctions against Russia."

It is not the first time that the EU and the US have targeted those who help Russia circumvent sanctions. But one country always manages to assist Moscow's aggression with total impunity. This country is Armenia, which has long played a game of words that contradict actions.

The EU publication on adopting the 13th package of sanctions states that the Union "constantly assesses the effectiveness of existing measures... identifies and eliminates any potential loopholes." However, during more than 700 days of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Armenian collaboration with the Kremlin's war machine has not only not been stopped but seems to be deliberately ignored.

There is enough evidence that Armenia is the primary channel for Russia to bypass sanctions. Primarily, economic data attests to this: in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, Armenia's exports to Russia increased by an unprecedented 187%. At that time, Armenia's finance minister, Ovannisyan, admitted that "a significant part consists of re-exportation. In the first nine months of 2023, the export of goods from Armenia to Russia increased by 85%, of which 80% is re-export.

The list of Armenia's top 10 most significant trading partners continues to be led by Russia:

In 2023, the trade turnover with Russia increased to over 7 billion dollars; it is not new or unknown to the public. In 2022, Armenia, a small nation with a population of 3 million, witnessed an extraordinary economic growth of 14.2%. The British Telegraph emphasized this notable progress, stating, "But the most remarkable is Armenia, with its 13% economic expansion in just 12 months, making it a contender for the third-fastest growing economy in the world."

The US Jamestown Foundation noted that Armenia's foreign trade turnover grew by 69% after the start of the war in Ukraine, attributing this growth to the re-export from Armenia to Russia. A collaborative statement by the US Department of Justice, the Department of Commerce, and the US Treasury categorizes Armenia as a hub for third-party intermediaries or transshipment points to circumvent sanctions and export controls related to Russia and Belarus. According to a European Bank for Reconstruction and Development report, new supply chains were quickly established through Armenia in response to sanctions, with subsequent expansion taking several months.

What is the reason for this "selective blindness" of the Western community? Why is there almost no attention paid to the fact that Yerevan is promptly turning into Tehran's ally?

Last September, Israel's Alma, an institute focused on threats to Israel, released a report elaborating on how Armenia functions as a transit point in the Islamic Republic's air corridor route to Syria and Lebanon.
The report said Iran exploits Armenia not only to subvert Azerbaijan – an ally of Israel – but also to facilitate the Islamic Republic's delivery of military equipment to Syria and then to Lebanon, underlining that "the Iranian effort in both arenas works against Israel."
The institute pointed out that Iran supports Armenia in the conflict with Azerbaijan and that Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) operates in the area while tensions are high and may flare up again shortly. "Iran is acting against Azerbaijan on multiple fronts, with the IRGC's Quds Force conducting operations in asymmetric warfare, information warfare, and transferring weapons and military equipment to Armenia."

Iran became Yerevan's leading partner in this process in all areas – economic, military, and political, the Israeli "Begin Sadat Center" think tank points out.

Another Israeli think tank – JISS, asserts that Armenia is a hub for Iranian weapons smuggling. It notes that recently, the Armenian Minister of Internal Affairs publicly acknowledged the fact that they have «lost 17 thousand assault rifles». The experts are sure that they were sold to Iran, and Armenian officials are concerned that if Iranian proxies use these rifles, the origin of the weapons will come to light, harming Armenia's reputation.

According to the Polish magazine New Eastern Europe, Yerevan aided Moscow in evading sanctions by facilitating the transit of Iranian drones and missiles. Operational data from the magazine reveals flights from Yerevan's Zvartnots International Airport, where Soviet Ilyushin-76MD aircraft allegedly transported Iranian drones to Russia. Iran Air Cargo, sanctioned by the US, was observed operating flights through Yerevan airport to and from Moscow, along with other Iranian entities implicated in delivering Iranian drones to Russia via Armenian airports.
Iranian influence also might be the reason behind the rise of antisemitism in Armenia, the US and Israeli experts claim. According to the Israeli Ministry of the Diaspora Affairs' latest report on world antisemitism, the only synagogue in Yerevan has been recently attacked several times by a group calling to kill Jews and Israelis abroad.

"Israel-Azerbaijan relations and the Israeli security exports to Azerbaijan largely influence the antisemitic discourse in Armenia. These ties arouse a great deal of anger in Armenian society in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh war raging between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, the fact that Armenia chose to focus on Israel in particular and not necessarily on other countries supporting Azerbaijan goes to show that the antisemitic attitude in Armenia is deeply rooted and may even be influenced by outside factors."
The comprehensive report further states that "Armenian social networks were quick to respond positively to the Hamas attack (on October 7) and share mass propaganda produced by Hamas. This action was accompanied by harsh criticism of Israel, explicit demands to support Hamas, and comparisons between Israel, Azerbaijan, and Nazi Germany."
Additionally, the report mentioned that "Vladimir Poghosyan, a prominent anti-Israel political commentator and previous holder of official security positions, who is known for his harsh antisemitic leanings, has openly threatened the Jews and Israel, repeatedly calling for attacks on Jews. As a result of this violent rhetoric, the small Jewish community in Armenia has often been victim to antisemitic harassment, which culminated in two attempts to burn down the only synagogue in the country."

On January 1, 2024, a group of Armenian neo-Nazis marched through the streets of the Armenia capital of Yerevan with stylized Nazi flags.  They commemorated the birthday of Garegin Nzhdeh, an Armenian national hero convicted of collaborating with Nazi Germany during World War II. The participants marched through the streets chanting the "Sieg Heil" slogan.

The perception of impunity is one of the most severe factors leading to more dangerous actions. There is a definite need to make it clear to Armenia that aiding and abetting Russia, alliance with Iran, antisemitic crimes, and Nazi parades turns it into a rouge state. Perhaps Israel should clarify such a position to the forces of common sense in the US and the EU.

Dr. Frank Musmar is a Faculty, Academic Researcher, Middle East geopolitics expert, Bestselling writer, Advisory Board President, Dissertations and proofreading specialist, and Journalist

Dr. Musmar holds two master's degrees from George Washington University in Political Science and Government and the University of Maryland in Biotechnology Management. Moreover, Dr. Musmar holds two doctorate degrees in business administration from Walden University and one in biological management from the University of Texas. 

Dr. Musmar wrote and published 10 Books on business and economy and many articles concerning Middle East Politics at BESA, Jerusalem Post, The Euro-Gulf Information Centre, Foreign Policy, The Algemeiner, Fikir Academy for Strategic Studies,  and many others. Moreover, Dr. Musmar is a frequent attending analyst at Al-Hurrah (MBN), TPV World, and Radio Sawa from Washington.

Dr. Musmar is an Executive Advisory Board President for the University of Maryland Global Campus, An Advisory member at the Abrahamic Accord Business Circle, a Board Member at Paris Metropolitan University, the founder and the Lead Dissertations Consultant at Editors Dissertations and Thesis, A professor of Business Administration and Geopolitics at GAIA College and working with many universities at several educational faculty levels, including but not limited to the University of Maryland Global Campus (UMGC), Walden, Arizona, Concordia University, Grand Canyon University, University of Central Paris, and Southern New Hampshire University. 

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