The emerging outlines of what is being referred to in some circles as a "Trump deal" to end the war reveal that some of the thorniest issues will likely be deferred or phrased ambiguously – especially demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, the dismantling of Hamas' military capabilities, and a renewed non-aggression pact. Such agreements historically place obligations on Israel while leaving the terrorist group free to rearm, as demonstrated in the events of October 7.

Negotiators discussed the list of terrorists to be released in exchange for hostages, a list that includes some of the most dangerous individuals – figures who could form Hamas' next leadership echelon, reminiscent of the 2011 Shalit deal.

A heavy price

Once again, officials in Jerusalem are convinced that the emotional impact of hostages reuniting with their families will soften public scrutiny of the steep national cost. That cost includes the long-term damage of signaling to terrorist organizations that kidnappings are an effective strategy – and that Israeli prisons are a temporary stop on the way back to leading roles in such groups.

That is why nearly all parties involved in the talks, including Arab leaders attending the summit in Egypt, are pressuring Hamas to first release its "strategic assets" – the hostages – before beginning to haggle over Israel's ongoing payments, two years after the October 7 massacre.

For IDF troops on the ground, glimpses of what lies ahead are visible daily. Yesterday, Hamas terrorists ambushed a fortified IDF position while Israeli soldiers, under strict instructions to hold fire and remain on the defensive throughout the negotiations, were unable to respond.

As before October 7, deals with the terrorist organization obligate only Israel and its military. Hamas, meanwhile, continues to extract concessions without being held accountable. Once again, the low expectations are entirely Israel's burden, which is why soldiers have been ordered to maintain the highest level of readiness even during the talks.

Hamas operatives and leaders now understand the strategic potential of conducting talks under tight American oversight. They expect that once Israel receives the hostages, it will be forced to fully commit to Gaza's rehabilitation, accept Hamas' continued presence in the background, and brace for the next round of fighting.

Meanwhile, in Sderot, the army removed armored train cars that had been stationed along the northern railway line – a symbolic signal that the military operation in Beit Hanoun was complete and the threat of direct rocket fire had been reduced. But shortly after the cars were put in place, someone spray-painted graffiti on one of them: "We learned nothing." It was a pointed reminder of the local fear that Israel's government has not absorbed the most important lesson of the October 7 massacre – that buying time or granting what could be perceived as a victory to a terrorist group may only lead to the next disaster.

Secrecy even among ministers

The information blackout around the current negotiations is not limited to the press. Even members of Israel's security cabinet have been kept out of the loop. The green light given by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich for holding talks will be judged solely by one metric: whether or not hostages return home in the coming days come with the heavy cost of freeing terrorists.

If Israel's negotiating team, led by Minister Ron Dermer, who arrived in Egypt, succeeds in delivering on that goal – and if Hamas indeed returns hostages rather than stalling with more excuses – then the cabinet will begin deliberations on the broader terms of the deal and its implications. But most signs suggest that, at this point, the train has already left the station.

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The protocol for receiving them will follow the model used in prior returns, including the creation of a dedicated area where hostages can shower and freshen up before reuniting with their families in an adjacent space.

Following the family reunions, the hostages will be flown to hospitals across the country. These medical centers have already cleared dedicated departments and are preparing with cautious optimism to receive the hostages.

At the same time, senior officials in Jerusalem expressed optimism about the imminent signing of Phase One of the Trump Plan, which they described as "a significant Israeli achievement." The hostages' release is reportedly part of this agreement, and the IDF is realigning its forces in the Gaza Strip accordingly. Officials believe that remaining points of contention are resolvable, and that a deal could be signed by the end of the week. If that timeline holds, the release could take place during the holiday.

In parallel, the Prime Minister's Office has begun drafting the necessary cabinet decision that would allow for the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails as part of the first phase of the deal: the release of hostages in exchange for the release of terrorists.

If the deal goes through, hospitals that have previously treated survivors of captivity are expected to once again receive the hostages and apply the experience and expertise they have accumulated. For instance, Soroka Medical Center has confirmed that its medical teams are on standby to receive and treat hostages in accordance with Health Ministry protocols. As with past releases, Soroka is preparing to handle complex medical and psychological cases.

Medical sources at hospitals that were involved in past releases told Israel Hayom that while they could not comment directly on current preparations, they stressed that the institutions had gained substantial experience and knowledge that would be applied this time as well.

However, they added that given the early stage of the process, no further details could be shared at this time.

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Al-Nunu said mediators were working intensively to remove every remaining hurdle to a ceasefire, describing an "optimistic atmosphere" among all parties involved.

Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer also arrived in Egypt, as senior officials in Jerusalem described a cautiously optimistic mood in response to recent messages from the Egyptian mediation team.

According to Al Arabiya, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said he had heard "very encouraging things from the talks to end the war in Gaza" and invited Trump to take part in the signing of the deal, if and when it is reached.

The Hamas spokesperson added that the talks had focused on the mechanisms for ending the war, the withdrawal of IDF troops from the Gaza Strip, and the issue of a hostage deal. He also said the sides had exchanged lists of prisoners for release, in accordance with agreed upon criteria and numbers.

Qatari outlet Al-Araby reported that Israel remains unwilling to include any Israeli citizens serving life sentences for terrorism offenses in a potential deal.

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Netanyahu made the comments with families of the Forum of Heroism, which comprises families who lost loved ones in the October 7 massacre and the Iron Swords war.

During the meeting, the prime minister clarified that "we will not proceed to any of the 21 clauses of the Trump plan until the first clause – the release of all the hostages, living and deceased, until the last of the hostages, every single one of them, has crossed into Israeli territory – we will not proceed to any other clause." Netanyahu also stated that "the Palestinian Authority will not govern Gaza the day after. No representative of Hamas and no representative of the Palestinian Authority will be involved in controlling the Gaza Strip," and that "Israel will be responsible for and involved in the demilitarization of weapons in the Strip."

Netanyahu also conveyed during the meeting that "if the hostages are not released by the deadline that President Donald Trump set – Israel will return to fighting with the full support of all the involved countries." Netanyahu further noted that "in the most recent operation, we succeeded in changing the situation from one in which Israel was isolated to one in which Hamas is isolated."

A member of the Forum of Heroism management, bereaved father Itzik Bunzel, noted: "I left the prime minister with a full understanding, and I received clear answers to my questions. I understood that the prime minister is resolute that the first clause – the release of all the hostages – is the sole gateway for continuing the implementation of the other clauses. I was convinced that until the last of the hostages returns home, the prime minister does not plan to advance any part from the remaining clauses. And he intends, should this not occur, to continue intense fighting until the collapse of Hamas and the return of the hostages ourselves. The prime minister also hopes and expects that the first condition will be met, but if it is not, Israel will return to intense fighting in Gaza City and will topple Hamas, so the goals of the war have not been altered and the prime minister stands by their execution."

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"The claims regarding the mistreatment of Greta Thunberg and other detainees from the Hamas–Sumud flotilla are brazen lies. All the detainees' legal rights are fully upheld. Interestingly enough, Greta herself and other detainees refused to expedite their deportation and insisted on prolonging their stay in custody. Greta also did not complain to the Israeli authorities about any of these ludicrous and baseless allegations – because they never occurred."

Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, who filmed himself calling the flotilla participants terrorists after they were transferred to Israel, also addressed the matter.

"I came to visit Ketziot Prison, and I was proud that we are treating the 'flotilla activists' as supporters of terror," he said. "Anyone who is a supporter of terror is a terrorist, and they are entitled to the conditions of terrorists. If any of them believed they would arrive here and receive a red carpet and fanfare – they were mistaken. It would be advisable for them to deeply feel the conditions in Ketziot Prison, and to think twice before approaching Israel again. That is the operating procedure." Israel Hayom has previously reported on a proposal by Ben-Gvir to detain her as a terrorist, although it is unclear if plan was ever adopted.

The Israeli Navy intercepted the 42 boats in the flotilla carrying hundreds of activists last week, including Thunberg, who tried to breach Israel's maritime blockade on the Gaza Strip during Yom Kippur. The vessels were diverted to Ashdod Port, where passengers were handed over to Israeli Police.

The operation, dubbed Shield of the Horizon. According to the military, within 12 hours naval forces gained operational control over the flotilla, preventing what was described as a coordinated attempt to violate Israel's legal blockade on Gaza.

Activists imprisoned after a Gaza-bound flotilla was intercepted on Yom Kippur have accused Israeli authorities of serious mistreatment, with their lawyer Sena Eliküčük preparing to submit a complaint to UN human rights bodies, the Swedish outlet Aftonbladet reports. Eliküčük told the the local press, "I intend to report these violations of human rights to the relevant UN authorities."

Sweden's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which urged Israel to provide adequate care, informed Thunberg's family she had a suspected bed bug bite during detention – a message Eliküčük also received. "They are definitely treated badly," she told TT, and may file a joint ICC complaint.

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Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who was summoned along with Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir to a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, tweeted: "The prime minister's decision to stop the assault in Gaza and, for the first time, conduct negotiations not under fire is a serious mistake and a sure recipe for Hamas to buy time and for the progressive erosion of Israel's position, both regarding the release of the hostages in a single tranche within 72 hours and regarding the war's central goal of destroying Hamas and fully demilitarizing Gaza."

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said: "If after the release of all the hostages Hamas continues to exist, we will not be part of the government. Alongside the important goal of freeing the hostages, the central objective of the war, which stems from the October 7 massacre carried out by the monsters of Hamas, is that the terrorist organization Hamas cannot be allowed to remain. It must be destroyed.

"Therefore, in light of the recent developments, I and the Otzma Yehudit party have made clear to the prime minister: if after the release of all the hostages of Hamas remains, Otzma Yehudit will no longer be part of the government. We will not be part of a national defeat that would be a nightmare and would become a ticking timebomb for the next massacre.

"There is no doubt that, like everyone else, we will be glad to see all the hostages return to us. At the same time, we will under no circumstances agree to a scenario in which the terrorist organization that brought the greatest calamity on the State of Israel is allowed to revive. We will not be partners in that in any way."

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A Likud official explained even before the plan was published that Netanyahu's problem was not Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, who would never accept a Palestinian state. The challenge now, with the release of an ambiguous formula, is convincing ministers that this is nothing more than rhetoric. As he put it, for decades Palestinians have failed to abandon their dream of driving the Jews into the sea. What's different this time is that the goal is simply to buy time, a political maneuver.

During his meetings in the US, Netanyahu was careful to present himself as a statesman balancing domestic political pressures with the growing international isolation caused by the length of the war. Israel, he stressed, cannot afford to alienate its strongest — and at this point only significant — ally. This need for maneuvering was something he explained to settler leaders as well, comparing it to a military tactic. Just as he withstood pressure from former US president Barack Obama while settlement activity flourished, Netanyahu told them, the current struggle should be viewed as another necessary stage in a long campaign.

The only firm promise the settler leaders left with was that no Palestinian state would be created. When asked what the alternative would be, they offered no answer.

"[The prime minister] is making enormous efforts and coming with a lot of goodwill to his meetings with the president," Netanyahu's entourage said Monday night, adding that the more decisive day had actually been Sunday, during his meetings with billionaire Andy Vitek and presidential adviser Jared Kushner. That day, the initial framework presented by US President Donald Trump was adjusted in line with Israeli requests, and as meetings continued the two sides drew closer. The tension that had marked Netanyahu's first days in the US gave way to another kind of pressure: the constant effort to bring the sides closer so that Trump would be satisfied while Israel did not lose out.

Qatari involvement in the run-up to the deal was evident all week, a senior Israeli official admitted Monday, despite Netanyahu's repeated denials. The White House, for its part, made no effort to hide the close coordination, highlighting frequent calls between Trump and Qatar's emir both before and after the Netanyahu meeting. "Netanyahu understands this and therefore has been very cautious in his statements regarding Qatar," the official added. When Netanyahu was later pressed to issue an apology to the emir, his aides described it as another necessary maneuver to advance the deal and keep Trump on his side.

What left a bitter taste was the sight of the Israeli prime minister apologizing, however reluctantly, to Hamas' main sponsor: Qatar. Yet the real cost will be far higher than rhetoric from any politician. If Hamas accepts the deal, Israel will regain its hostages quickly, but at the heavy price of releasing hundreds of convicted murderers serving life sentences, along with hundreds of other terrorists who would return to the field. Hamas would gain a major boost, both from its fighters and from those indebted to it for their freedom. As Israeli security officials have warned, releasing them into the West Bank and Jerusalem could ignite violence that the defense establishment would need to prepare for.

The questions of Israel's military control over Gaza and the demilitarization of the Strip were left vague in the published framework. For residents of the Gaza border area, these two lines were deeply disappointing. They had hoped for a different outcome this time, not just another round of fighting followed by temporary calm.

Still, Trump's stated commitment to taking Gaza on as his own project and enabling the emigration of its residents abroad was described by some as the fulfillment of a long-held Israeli dream, if it could indeed be achieved. Could Gaza stop producing terrorism and start exporting high-tech?

The memory of the 2005 disengagement has not faded, and the new formula recalls the late Shimon Peres' visions of a "Singapore of the Middle East." Will Palestinians truly change course for a better future? Optimism cannot be a policy plan.

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The proposal's likelihood of achievement remains uncertain; however, multiple elements, particularly the conflict's length and the fatigue of all parties, especially Hamas', could result in its approval and, at the very least, initiate its execution. Hamas initially constituted the primary undermining element of earlier suggestions for truces and concluding the conflict through introducing requirements that signified for Israel maintaining its security vulnerability in immediate and extended periods. Israel additionally contributes to the absence of advancement, whether due to political/security considerations, yet whenever an opportunity existed for a settlement, Hamas blocked finalization.

Now it faces a real dilemma – on one hand, its forces in the field are exhausted, every day the IDF eliminates dozens of terrorists, including commanders at various levels, and in some cases, their family members are also killed. Its people try to tail IDF soldiers and record isolated successes, without affecting forces' advancement in Gaza City.

The unrest against Hamas is intensifying. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed that not only the al-Shabab clan is fighting Hamas but also other groups, and Israel encourages this.

The plan is divided into two parts: the ceasefire conditions and post-war Gaza. Under the ceasefire, Israel is supposed to receive all hostages, living and deceased, already at the beginning, despite Hamas' demand for gradual release, and in return, it ceases fire, begins a gradual withdrawal process, and allows aid entry freely. Contrary to what was reported in several places, there's no agreement to close the GHF aid fund, which distributes enormous quantities of food daily quite effectively. The disputes are about the gradualness of withdrawal and Hamas' disarmament.

Israel demands a long-term presence in the Philadelphi Corridor and perimeter, where it has already established permanent positions. Hamas and Qatar demand setting a near date for complete withdrawal, and only then releasing all hostages. The issue of Hamas' weapons has no practical solution currently. The latest formulation speaks of demilitarizing the Strip, but there was no agreement on an explicit formulation that Hamas must surrender all its weapons. Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and the PA side with the Israeli position that Hamas must surrender "all" weapons.

In the plan's second part – real expansion regarding the Strip's rehabilitation and its management by a multinational body with Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Egypt setting the tone, but the Palestinian Authority also has a part, albeit symbolic. The Authority, which, according to international law, is still the sovereign responsible for Gaza, is supposed to "invite" the multinational forces and give them control and rehabilitation powers.

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In his United Nations address on Friday, Netanyahu laid out Israel's achievements in the war forced upon it since the October 7 Hamas massacre. Comparing a map of threats from a year ago to the current reality, Netanyahu highlighted how Israel's position has shifted across the region.

The question of "how"

The UN speech was aimed at countering days of international defamation against Israel and calls for a Palestinian state, except from the likes of Indonesia's president. But the fateful decisions will come in Netanyahu's meeting with Trump. The American president appears to be laying groundwork for a deal to end the war under terms acceptable to Israel, though Hamas has rejected them outright.

In a 21-point document released over the weekend, Trump proposed the release of all hostages in exchange for thousands of imprisoned terrorists, the disarmament of the Gaza Strip, an immediate end to the war, a commitment to block Israeli sovereignty, maintenance of a security perimeter, and a gradual withdrawal in favor of Arab administration.

For Netanyahu, Gaza is only one part of the discussion. He intends to push four key issues: a security agreement with Syria, future operational coordination against Iran, sovereignty in Judea and Samaria, and the terms for ending the war. Netanyahu will ask Trump to condition future US aid to Syria on an agreement with Israel. This appears feasible after Trump's envoy Tom Barrack laid initial groundwork.

Netanyahu also wants to coordinate with Trump on operational action against Iran, which according to foreign reports is seeking to rebuild damaged nuclear facilities. The prime minister will push for an understanding to ensure Iran cannot quickly restore its capabilities.

Limited sovereignty

On sovereignty, Trump appeared to present his stance before Netanyahu even set foot in the White House, saying over the weekend that it was "not on the table." Still, Netanyahu seeks a diplomatic response to any unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state and may push for a formula such as limited sovereignty in the Jordan Valley.

Regarding Gaza, senior Israeli officials remain skeptical about the prospects of reaching an end to the war under terms acceptable to both Trump and Netanyahu. Hamas has already rejected the formula, and it is unclear how the capture of Gaza City or assassination attempts against Hamas leaders in Qatar will affect the group's position.

Netanyahu is determined not to be seen as the one blocking a deal in his meeting with Trump. Instead, he is expected to maximize potential achievements in other areas beyond the reach of fundamentalist murderers who, as Netanyahu's allies noted, were effectively handed a state this week on "a silver platter of Jewish blood" by French President Emmanuel Macron and others.

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Video: Public diplomacy campaign in New York highlighting the atrocities committed by Hamas

The Prime Minister's Office and its spokesperson's unit launched the campaign across dozens of massive billboards and trucks surrounding the UN headquarters and Times Square. The signs, written in English, read "Remember October 7" and feature a QR code that leads to a website displaying the atrocities committed by Hamas during its attack on Israel.

According to the Prime Minister's Office, the goal of the campaign is to remind world leaders and the American public of the brutality of Hamas, which still holds 48 hostages captive in Gaza.

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