The world is struggling to define the situation currently unfolding in Eastern Europe. No one can read Russian President Vladimir Putin's mind so no one can really predict what he may do next.

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Judging his actions so far it seems that, barring a dramatic event, the Russian president will have the upper hand in the Ukrainian conflict, meaning he will have essentially defeated the United States and its allies – the same countries now allied with Kyiv. And even if somehow the West has the upper hand, Putin will not actually be defeated or humiliated.

This is the way of the rulers of Russia, the Tsars, from the beginning of time. And the present tsar is following suit.

The Russians are not giving up territory. Exactly eight years ago, Putin's Russia overran the Crimean peninsula citing the exact same pretext – Western sympathy. Ukraine has – and does – favor the West, meaning it is hostile to Russia in the east.

US sanctions did little to deter Putin in Crimea's case. Clearly, they are not a deterring factor in Ukraine's case, either.

There are periodic scholarly estimates that the United States superpower status in on the decline.

Some say: The empire is not what it used to be. The United States has twice in the past sent troops to bail out Europe when it was facing tyrants threatening to rip it apart, but now the US is on the brink of reaching another deal with Iran – a country that is widely believed to be developing a nuclear bomb and the means to launch them, all while the world is listening to this UN member-state as it threatens to destroy Israel.

Other say that Israel has failed to prevent the 2015 nuclear deal from being signed or introducing any major changes to it, and the same seems to be the case this time. Former PM Benjamin Netanyahu's rival say he is at fault for the former, while others think it is Prime Minister Naftali Bennett who is to blame.

Truth be told, only omniscience pundits can tell us how to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions, and for many Israelis, current events in Ukraine demonstrate the American flaccidness vis-à-vis Russia's aggression and Iran's belligerence.

There is also the matter of the hurried withdrawal from Afghanistan, of course, which allowed one of the most radical Islamic players to rise to power.

The vacuum created due to the weakness of one superpower is immediately filled with the plots of a rival power. As long as Putin does not intend to relent, Israel has only one choice: to walk the very fine line with respect to its position on the Ukraine crisis.

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US Joe Biden's status in the eyes of the American public is plummeting, and at a time when the Americans haven't decided how to respond if Russia and Ukraine go to war. Even at six months in office, support for Biden was down 20%. He is even losing support in his own party. According to the New York Times, only 29% of Democratic respondents told a survey that they were satisfied with the situation in the US. Even more interesting is this: support for the president is even down among Black Americans, the most consistent Democratic constituency.

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These numbers point to a failed first presidential year. One important reason for Biden's dropping poll numbers is his unimpressive TV persona. Another data point about what appears to be the president's failure comes from a Harvard-Harris poll that asked the public if Biden and former President Donald Trump ran for president right now, who they thought would win. Fifty-three percent of respondents said they thought Trump would win, compared to 47% who favored Biden.

These numbers are meaningful. The US is not dismissive of polls. They indicate public sentiment and influence political moves. And unfortunately, the numbers are coming out at a time when Biden needs to decide how to respond should Russia invade Ukraine, and the entire world is wondering what the US will do. It's very likely that the president's decision on this crucial matter will be made to a large extent based on his public standing.

And how could the American course of action affect Israel? First of all, Israel should stay quiet. Israel mustn't utter a peep in support of either side, because its good relations with Russia are an asset. Biden will also need to make decisions about the economy that will affect every American household. "It's the economy, stupid," as has already been said.

What will happen to the two parties in Congress? In the midterm elections, will the Democrats keep their majority in the House, or will the Republicans manage to break the even split in the Senate? The battle against COVID, foreign policy, appointments of judges, and legislation on every issue could all influence Senate decisions.

In my opinion, it would be better if the Republicans strike a blow at the current Democratic majority in the House. The trend toward the radical, socialist Left that has gained traction in the Democratic Party, is not supportive of Israel, in contrast to the old-guard Democratic leadership, such as Sen. Chuck Schumer. The old guard is consistent in its traditional support If only Israel policy in Congress would go back to being bilateral, like it used to me. Perhaps the process of radicalization on the Left will change, like the results of the polls.

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a statesman who can change his colors, and a few days ago he did it again when he flattered Israel by saying that President Isaac Herzog might soon pay a visit to Turkey. Before that, in a phone conversation, Erdogan expressed condolences to Herzog over the death of his mother. Do these remarks herald another honeymoon for Israel and Turkey, the latest in a series of "honeymoons" that have stopped and started for decades?

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The phone conversations with Herzog, or Erdogan's meeting with rabbis from Muslim countries, are signs that might warrant a closer look in Israel. The future will tell us whether they will turn into a Turkish U-turn when it comes to relations with Israel. For now, with no dates yet set for Herzog and Erdogan to visit each other's countries, Israel should scrutinize whether Erdogan's Turkey has changed its views on Israel and the Jewish public as a whole. For example, has Erdogan gotten over his frequent hints at antisemitism?

Relations with Turkey might be on hold, but trade relations continue and are even thriving. In my opinion, President Herzog is getting more involved in Israel's foreign policy, and that's a good thing. Unlike Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, the president gained a wealth of diplomatic experience over his career. He remains coolheaded, and does not get flustered when he hears staffers say, "Mr. President, Erdogan is on the line." And if his Turkish colleague calls his home, it's a sign he's in trouble.

In his meeting with the rabbis, Erdogan said that relations with Israel were vital to Turkey. But we should remember that Jerusalem is committed to protecting its alliance with two countries that have oppositional, not to say hateful, relations with Turkey. The Israel-Greece-Cyprus triangle is very beneficial to gas drilling in Israel's sovereign waters, and Erdogan is sorry to see it. He also wants to take part, and next time he phones from Ankara, President Herzog should have an answer ready.

I am not among those who think that the terms "national pride" and "patriotism" are no longer relevant. Acolytes of political correctness might feel that they are destined to vanish, but this is how President Herzog should respond if Erdogan hints again that he desires change: Herzog should make ties between Turkey and Israel conditional on the Turkish president taking back his past slanders about Israel and its leaders. The apology does not need to include a public speech. It would be enough for Erdogan to include, even indirectly, a note of reconciliation in his next interview and Israel will make due with that modest gesture.

When dealing with a rival nation, Israel should act in the spirit of national pride. The chance that Erdogan will implement the recommendation is a slim one. Israel tourists who visit the bazaar in Istanbul will be satisfied with a modest step that will "all inclusive" when it comes to changing relations with Turkey.

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It will take a few years before the memory of the Holocaust, of the 6 million, fades and is possibly erased. But reading the interview that director David Fisher gave to Haaretz's "Gallery" weekend section on Jan. 13, one fears he could be seen as helping Holocaust deniers.

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Tonight, Israeli cable channel HOT8 will screen Fisher's documentary film that casts doubt on how accurate the 6 million figure is. It's very possibly that Fisher's research led him to a conclusion that "only 5,050,000 Jews were murdered, not 6 million. Or that "only" 200,000 million were murdered. Would a different number do anything to reduce the horror of the terrible crime? I say to David Fisher that any figure that aspires to be exact, or one that drops (or raises!) the accepted count that is so symbolic will not be remembered or replace "6 million." That number has been imprinted on the global discussion ever since the end of World War II.

This was also the crux of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' doctorate at Moscow University. The PA leader is proud of his "finding," which helps other Holocaust deniers like himself. "Six million" is not a detail from the world of statistics, but the very heart of the most horrific crime in the history of humanity. Fisher's intention of challenging, or reaching a different conclusion about, the number of Jews killed reminds me of something the late historian Professor Yaakov Talmon said. Talmon mocked ridiculous aspects of the research into the facts of an event in Chronicles and gave the example, "It wasn't Moses who came down form Mount Sinai holding the tablets with the 10 Commandments, but rather his brother-in-law, whose name was also Moses."

Even when it first came into use, the accepted term "6 million" carried a kind of halo. No other number will take its place. How will we respond if a researcher pops up who after careful study informs us that Pharaoh wasn't afflicted by 10 plagues, as cited in the Passover Haggadah, but only eight? And the researcher might expand and say that the climate conditions in Egypt in the time of the pharaohs made it impossible for there to be 10 plagues and allowed for only eight of them. If so, wouldn't it be appropriate to be exact about the "10 plagues," as well?

According to the Fisher interview, Professor Yehuda Bauer – one of the most important Holocaust researchers – told the interviewer that "This matter, the 6 million number, isn't of absolute importance, and the questions Fisher raises are marginal. What is important is that the Holocaust was the most extreme genocide there has ever been."

After Fisher's film, "The Round Number," is screened tonight, there is room to worry that someone who was raised by parents who survived the Holocaust will be the one to supply Holocaust deniers with heavy ammunition. In aiming to do good, he has wound up doing evil, and indirectly – making a denial.

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Indeed, this hasn't been a very merry Christmas amid a surging pandemic that has roused concerns and growing isolation. And it's not just Christians who fear the pandemic, but Jews, Israelis, too, who have adorned their homes with Christmas decorations.

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It's worth noting the leaders of various Christian denominations have unreservedly called on their followers to get vaccinated in recent days. The leader of the Anglican Communion, the Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby, however, used the holiday to bless the members of his church, but also to admonish us, the Israelis. Welby was joined by the Archbishop of Jerusalem, Hosam Naoum, who warned in a recent article in the Sunday Times about a crisis of Christian survival "in the Holy Land."

They warned this crisis was being brought about through the desecration of churches and attacks, both physical and verbal, on priests, monks and worshipers by Jewish extremist groups. The Foreign Ministry said in response that Israel was committed to protecting freedom of worship and access to the holy sites.

These claims are not completely baseless. Let us not forget, for example, the arson attack at the Tabgha Church of the Loaves and Fish on the Sea of Galilee, or that priests have been spit on in the Old City of Jerusalem. With these acts of violence, Jewish extremists tarnish Israel's name in the eyes of the Christian world.

The state is responsible for safeguarding the most sacred religious sites in Christianity, aside from Bethlehem, which was transferred to the jurisdiction of the Palestinian Authority. Under Israel's jurisdiction are the Church of Nativity, Church of the Holy Sepulchre, Church Of Annunciation in Nazareth, and many more sites that gave birth to the Christian religion. It's not for nothing that the Archbishop of Canterbury is complaining about extremists in Israel, whose actions are expediting the process of a dwindling Christian population here.

We can, of course, remind the Anglican leaders that Palestinian Islamic extremists have played a much larger role in harming Christian institutions in Israel. The Christian population in Bethlehem, Jesus' birthplace, has shrunk due to the harassment perpetrated by Islamic extremists there.

The Vatican wants to amend its dismal history with the Jewish people, but it still has an important debt to pay: The Vatican must unreservedly open its doors for scientific and historical research to reveal the role of the "Silent Pope," Pius XII, during the Holocaust. The expansive reach and broad influence of the many denominational Church leaders means we must honor and respect this important population and its customs. However, the fragile coexistence will be exceedingly difficult to preserve if acts of Jewish extremism and violence persist.

Through her activities, Yisca Harani, an Israeli lecturer, adviser, researcher, and guide in the field of Christian history and pilgrimage, embodies coexistence, tolerance, and understanding with the Christians living here with us. Her lectures in her field of expertise are fascinating, yet mainly build bridges by filling in the knowledge gaps about this important religion, whose influence on the world stage must be appreciated. What is Christianity? What are Buddhism and Islam? These religions, along with others, should be taught in our educational system – not merely for the sake of expanding knowledge but to increase tolerance and curtail extremism.

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There are Israelis, descendants of families from Poland, who will never agree to step on Polish soil. Some of them had relatives murdered by Poles, who collaborated with the Nazi occupier. Poland is taking great pains these days to minimize, and preferably erase, any historical documentation of those Poles who helped the Nazis carry out their "Final Solution."

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The threat issued by Poland's Deputy Foreign Minister Pawel Jablonski, whereby his government will consider banning Israeli youths from attending March of the Living trips to the remnants of the Nazi death camps on Polish soil, is an important aspect of the effort to obscure the country's historic collaboration with the Nazi occupier. It's worth telling the Polish government in a clear voice: Indeed, even in Israel, the general consensus is that most of the extermination camps weren't erected by Poland, rather on its soil. These were not Polish camps. But we must ask, and the historians would answer: Why was Poland chosen by the Nazis as the place to establish their industry of death? Was it due to the country's massive Jewish population at the time? And perhaps other explanations exist as to why Polish soil was chosen to soak up the blood of those murdered in the Holocaust?

In his book Neighbors: The Destruction of the Jewish Community in Jedwabne, Poland, Polish-American historian Jan Tomasz Gross didn't make up the fact that some 1,600 Jews were burned by their neighbors in a barn in the town of Jedwabne. Polish journalist and author Anna Bikont collected eye-witness testimonies from Poles who recounted how their neighbors had murdered Jews. Their books have been translated to Hebrew. It's extremely sad and unfortunate, therefore, to see Israeli politicians, of all people, welcome the Polish threat to ban Israeli youths from visiting Auschwitz. Their reasoning: These trips engender nationalistic sentiments among the younger generation.

Mordechai Anielewicz was the leader of the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising and a member of the left-leaning Hashomer Hatzair movement, and the bunker from where he commanded the uprising should be visited by Israeli youths. Is it not appropriate to salute Paweł Frenkiel, of the right-wing Beitar movement, for his important role in helping to lead that rebellion against the Germans? Only a modest memorial in Warsaw will remind us of this hero. For these reasons, too, we should continue these March of the Living trips and fight the threat to cancel them. Auschwitz is not a fabrication. We must strengthen, for our own sake, the study of history and its lessons, without skipping over and without exaggerating the role that some Poles played in the annihilation of the Jews.

The following expression is perhaps tough to hear considering the subject matter at hand, but must be said, somewhat apologetically, regardless: In Poland, better is what he sees with his eyes. If the extermination camps were not bombed during the Second World War, they must be preserved. The presences of the thousands of students and tourists who visit these sites, from Israel and beyond, also contribute to this living testimony.

And, some here among us also argue that relations with Poland should be tempered regardless, as the current Polish government is working to fan the flames of nationalism. These same folks also want relations to be tempered, and even severed, with Hungary and other countries in Eastern Europe. However, diplomatic relations are not built on the foundations of ethical and moral principles. That these countries are members of the European Union is critical to Israel. Once the current exchange of diplomatic blows between Israel and Poland dissipates, despite their harsh nature, discreet channels of contact should be opened for the purpose of reconciliation. The odds are exceedingly slim. It is still worth trying.

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Deep, abysmal Israel hatred runs through a recent opinion piece that appeared in The New York Times, so much so that the author actually recommends Israel cease to exist as a Jewish state and in its place, one state for both the Jews and Palestinians be established.

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The Jewish American author of this piece, Peter Beinart, is one of the more prominent progressive intellectual Jews in the US and a member of the radical Left whose boundless criticism of Israel knows no limits.  At one point, he served as a senior commentator for Israel's Haaretz, although after writing only a few pieces for the newspaper, Beinart's ties with the left-wing outlet came to an end.

The Shin Bet security agency was also interested in Beinart's views when in 2018, security officials stopped Beinart and reportedly asked him about his ties to left-wing organizations as he was about to enter Israel at Ben-Gurion Airport. Beinart's detention at the airport was a serious glitch. Under then-Premier Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister's Office apologized for the incident, which it referred to as an "administrative mistake."

Over the years, Beinart's criticism of Israel, and the settlements, in particular, has become increasingly extreme. If only it ended there. Beinart has undermined the very structure of Israel's regime. He believes Israel should be a state in which Jews and Palestinians live together in full equality. It seems this is the reason he has called for Israel to open its gates and allow the Palestinians to realize their "right of return." Just recently, he has gone even further, in his Israel criticism, so much so that his recent opinion piece, titled "America Needs to Start Telling the Truth About Israel's Nukes" and published just a few days ago in The New York Times, could be seen as comparing Israel to Iran.

Honest Reporting, a US pro-Israel media watchdog group, was highly critical of Beinart's piece, the subject of which was Iranian and Israeli nuclear policy. In his piece, Beinart called for the US and Israel to begin to reveal the truth about Israel's alleged nuclear missiles. Beinart dwarfed the Iranian threat toward Israel, making no mention of the fact that it is Iran that is threatening to wipe out Israel and the country's leaders who consistently call for the destruction of the Jewish state.

Beinart claims his minimization of the severity of the threat is aimed at promoting the nuclear disarmament of the Middle East. The difficulty, he argues, lies in the fact that Israel is not a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, and unlike Iran, does not allow inspection of its facilities. The nuclear issue appears to be a recent addition to Beinart's Israel criticism. After all, Jewish American criticism of Israel tends to focus on the settlements as the source of all evil. For Beinart, Netanyahu's years in office provided a comfortable platform for him to write his criticism. The question is: Will the American Left Beinart represents soften its stance on Israel in the Naftali Bennett era or will it become even more radicalized?

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If Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid does become prime minister one day, one leftist American politicians seems to be eager to become his adviser. Several months ago Lapid accused Prime Minister Netanyahu of "knowing nothing of America," yet Democratic United States senator Elizabeth Warren is chomping at the bit to show off her knowledge of affairs in Israel.

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In a speech at the annual J Street conference, she interfered with Israeli politics by criticizing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and urged the "Anyone but Bibi" camp to unite in a quest to oust "the corrupt leader."

It is no wonder that such remarks were made at J Street. The conference of the left-wing group is the only place where a senator can publicly encourage ousting Netanyahu, the leader of a democratic state.

What was Warren's justification for Netanyahu's removal? It was a necessary step for the establishment of a Palestinian state, she said.

Also, according to Warren, if the anti-Netanyahu bloc continues to fight amongst themselves it will continue to "prop up a corrupt leader who puts his own interests ahead of his country."

Lapid has recently returned from a trip to the US, where he consulted with his adviser Mark Mellman. Did these consultations somehow result in Warren's speech? We cannot know.

What is clear, though, is that if there ever is a Lapid-Bennett government, we know exactly who they will work with in the US.

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On Holocaust Remembrance Day, the hours are filled with countless memories of deep sadness. On Wednesday night, we heard the speeches that all concluded with the same call: to remember.

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Yes, it is safe to assume we will remember. It is impossible to forget the loved ones that were murdered.

Dignitaries will be honored with reading the names of the relatives they lost in the Holocaust in the Knesset. Unfortunately, some of the 120 officials elected to the Knesset will harm and detract from the Holocaust and its memory out of a desire to stir controversy and quarrel with political rivals.

Those people whose history does not include the terrible genocide also harm the memory of the Holocaust. Not so with us. Many of us are very sad that the Holocaust, the most important event in human history, has become a verbal political game piece in the mouths of dignitaries in the Jewish state. We must not conceal or make light of the ugly phenomenon that desecrates – yes, desecrates – the memory of the Holocaust.

Calls to remember are diminished as soon as one of our nation's sweethearts or activists tries to score points in a petty quarrel. It doesn't matter whether the person doing the eroding is "just" a young ultra-Orthodox boy insulting the police and calling them "Nazis." How should we respond to a retired IDF general who intentionally compared the terrible day-to-day Nazi routine with processes that may already, in his defamatory opinion, be taking hold here in Israel? And there is no one to say enough is enough to the ongoing devaluation of the memory of the Holocaust.

It sometimes seems as if the desecration of the Holocaust is taken far more seriously overseas than it is here, where the attitude often seems to be one of indifference. One month ago, in Massachusetts, high-school football players and their coach used antisemitic language that included references to the Auschwitz death camp while making play calls in a game. The coach was immediately fired, and Massachusetts Senate President Karen Spilka submitted legislation that would make genocide education mandatory curriculum.

The Jewish state must emulate this kind of uncompromising attitude toward those who desecrate the memory of the Holocaust. The memory of the Holocaust should be purged of any sign of "Nazi" slander every single day, and not just on Holocaust Remembrance Day. Desecrators of the memory of the Holocaust should know they would be subject to severe punishment and even ostracism if they don't watch their tongues.

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The various parties will soon begin their procession of meetings with President Reuven Rivlin, before he decides who to task with trying to form the next government. In an ideal world, in which our government functioned on the basis of healthy logic and reason, the president would never even require such "consultations." He would only have to look at the election results. Netanyahu, as the leader of the largest party by a wide margin, should be the natural, not to mention logical candidate to form the next government.

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The pundits in the news studios, however, have uttered Gideon Sa'ar as a candidate to form the government. Yes, the same failure whose hopes of succeeding Netanyahu were diminished to six mandates. Sa'ar, not Netanyahu, whose Likud party is several times the size of the now-deflated New Hope party. Rivlin could very well struggle to come to terms with the realization, as of this writing, that he must tab Netanyahu, his bitter rival, with the task. This is simply a fact of the president's relationship with the prime minister. Some pundits have even noted Rivlin's anxiety ahead of the decision due to his aversion to Netanyahu and the job he has done. And the anxiety is only getting worse.

Netanyahu's haters are restless: They want to capitalize on the twilight of Rivlin's presidency. Some have intimated he should resign to avoid having to assign the task of forming the next government to Netanyahu if he secures enough recommendations. These pressures are part of a rather ugly campaign to politicize the office of the president. And if Rivlin grants the Netanyahu haters their wish, he will go down in history as having tarnished the office. All of this, of course, depends on Netanyahu's ability to secure a majority of recommendations from the other party leaders.

When Rivlin's tenure ends in July, will his successor also face pressure to appoint a candidate based on political considerations, rather than the number of recommendations he garners, as per his obligation? To the best of everyone's knowledge, Rivlin will reject the terrible advice to resign. Similar to the past, he will ask Netanyahu to form the government, if the reality calls for it. On his recent visit to Europe, Rivlin praised Netanyahu for his efforts against the coronavirus. Hence, it appears the president will not end his seven years in office with a controversial bang.

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