The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza Strip and its accompanying medium-intensity conflict with Hezbollah carries the risk of becoming a regional war involving Hezbollah and its Iranian sponsor, according to a former head of the Military Intelligence Directorate.

"I think by now everybody understands the problem is not Gaza. The problem is Iran. Iran is behind all of this," said Maj. Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin last week.

"Iran is enjoying the fact that Israel was diverted toward a front in Gaza. Most of the world is ignoring the fact that Iran continues to advance to a nuclear weapon," said Yadlin, also a former deputy commander of the Israel Air Force and currently president and founder of MIND Israel, a nonprofit consulting team.

Speaking during an April 4 event organized by Media Central, a media liaison center based in Jerusalem, Yadlin said that Israel currently stands at a critical juncture.

"I want to go to the strategic level and to speak about the fact that today, maybe tomorrow, maybe next week, we can go to two different, different directions of this war," he said.

One of these scenarios is the escalation of the conflict to a regional war "because of Iran, because of Hezbollah," he continued. "It will move from Gaza to the north, from a limited war in Gaza to a regional war."

Alternatively, the conflict could head "toward a process that will fix, [that] will de-escalate the war and will fix some of the problems. And we really are facing crucial days, maybe a week," said Yadlin.

"Iran is threatening to attack Israel. Everyone in their leadership vowed revenge" for the killing on April 1 of Brig. Gen. Mohammad Zahedi, a top commander in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps' Quds Force responsible for Syria and Lebanon, in a strike on a building adjacent to the Iranian embassy in Damascus.

"The alleged [Israeli] strike in Damascus – Israel never took responsibility, but the Iranians blame Israel for the killing of [Mohammad Reza] Zahevi," said Yadlin.

"He was the chief general of the Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon. Twenty years in this business of building Hezbollah and other forces that serve Iran in Lebanon and Syria. He was a member of the Hezbollah Shura [Council, the terror group's central decision-making forum]. And he and some of his deputies and some of his officers were targeted in Damascus, not in the Iranian embassy, not in the Iranian consulate, but in areas that belong to Iran in Damascus," he continued.

Following Hamas's Oct. 7 massacre, and since Hezbollah began firing on northern Israel, Israel "took off the gloves" regarding the Lebanese terrorist group. While Israel has spent years combating Iranian efforts to transfer weapons to Hezbollah and entrench itself in Syria, prior to Oct. 7 it was careful not to target Iranians, said Yadlin. However, when "Iran launched its proxies against Israel from Lebanon, from Syria, from Yemen, from Iraq, Israel changed the policy," he added. "And in this case, it seems like a big hit to Iran. So the Iranians are thinking about revenging or deterring Israel."

While he noted that Iran has attacked Israeli embassies in the past, in Buenos Aires, New Delhi and Azerbaijan, he assessed that the likelihood of Iran retaliating in this way was low.

"If you're listening to the Iranian music, they are looking for a more impressive attack," he said. "And anyway, dealing with embassies [all] over the globe requires time," he said. An additional complication is that if they carry out such an attack, "They will be violating the sovereignty of a third country. So the chances that this will be the Iranian move is not so high," he said.

Iran could seek retaliation via Hezbollah, but that scenario too, he said. was not likely.

The Lebanese terrorist group has been "very careful not to escalate to a full-scale war," over the past six months, he said. "Some of it may be because the Iranians don't want to go to a full-scale war. But if Iran were to ask Hezbollah to take it up a notch, I guess that it would be answered with 'Why destroy Lebanon? It [the April 1 strike on Zahedi] was done. What happened, happened in Damascus, on Iranian soil. Maybe you [Iran] should take a step towards Israel.'"

As a result, Yadlin estimated that the most likely scenario is a direct Iranian attack on Israel, which carries the risk of escalation. He noted Iranian ballistic missile attacks on Pakistan and Islamic State in recent months, saying, "So if they can attack Pakistan with ballistic missiles, why not Israel? But not only ballistic missiles. In the Saudi case, they use cruise missiles and drones, the same drones that are attacking Ukraine in the last year."

Yadlin stressed however that Israel has a highly advanced air defense system, which has already proven itself over the past six months.

"Don't panic, don't run to the shelters. Israel has a very, very good air defense, missile defense, and rocket defense. It was one of the systems that has worked excellently in the last six months. Israel is attacked on a daily basis, from Lebanon, from Gaza, from Iraq, from Syria, from Yemen. And it's not hermetic, but it's [got] 95, 96, 97% [interception rates]," he said.

With regard to the second scenario, Yadlin said, "If the north is not going to explode," this means de-escalation. "And this all has to do with the hostage deal," he added.

"As we speak," he said, negotiations are ongoing. "We are waiting for Hamas's reply to new Israeli or Egyptian, Qatari and U.S. offers. If there is a hostage deal, then we have at least six weeks of ceasefire in the south, then ceasefire in the north, then maybe [implementing United Nations Security Council] 1701, remove Hezbollah from the border, a new 1701 that will be brokered by [U.S.] President [Joe] Biden," he said. That scenario could be followed by normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, he continued.

Six months into the war, Israel has to examine the question of whether its war goals need to be updated while sticking to the goal of ensuring that Hamas can never relaunch a devastating attack from Gaza again, he said.

In the north, he continued, "Hezbollah was beaten, but not enough. And the people will not go back without getting guarantees from diplomatic [elements] or [a] military move that Nasrallah cannot duplicate what Sinwar has done in the south."

With regard to Hamas in Gaza, he said, "We have to tell the truth. You cannot change their hearts and minds. You cannot change their views. The population of Gaza is supporting them, but Hamas will be much weaker [after the war]. And who is there to control Hamas?"

Brig. Gen. (ret.) Ram Yavne, former head of the Strategic Division in the Planning Directorate of the IDF General Staff and a former senior intelligence officer in the IDF's Northern Command, said that after a half of a year of war, Hamas no longer rules the Gaza Strip and its military capabilities have been severely damaged.

"Hamas is not the ruler anymore. It's the ruler in specific points…where the IDF hasn't operated. But in all the other areas, Hamas has been weakened dramatically and is not the ruler anymore," he said.

Yavne, today a senior advisor at MIND Israel, said that Israel has reestablished some of its deterrence via the determination and capabilities it has displayed fighting against Hamas. By doing so, he said Israel has proven its abilities to take apart massive terror armies in urban areas.

This could have "some implications when speaking about deterrence in this region. But it's something that we'll have to see [in terms of what happens next]," he added.

"Another achievement, which is relative, of course, that we've made so far, is the release of some of the hostages. Until now, though, we are in a big challenge with respect to the others," he added.

All members of Hamas's leadership, even Sinwar, understand that it has been "hit severely," said Yavne. "But still they have some assets, let's put it that way. The first asset that they have, of course, is the hostages themselves, which enable them [Hamas] to demand various things," including an Israeli ceasefire and withdrawal from Gaza," he said.

Hamas still has " some military capabilities in Gaza Strip and of course they're trying [to build up capabilities] in other areas such as, such as the West Bank," he added. Polls show that there is a relatively wide support for Hamas among Palestinians despite the devastation that it has brought to Gaza, he noted.

Yavne outlined four scenarios for the future of Gaza: Israeli military control, chaos, the return of a weakened Hamas and the establishment of a new ruling regime, which he argued would be the Palestinian Authority.

Regarding Rafah, Yavne said the future operation by Israel in the last Hamas stronghold would be designed to take apart Hamas's four battalions in the area, and to stop the smuggling of weapons from Egypt into Gaza in the future.

If this "isn't handled," he cautioned, "there is a good chance that Hamas would do every effort to build up its power back."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

The post 6 months into war, Gaza could become secondary arena appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

A little over a year ago, on April 7, 2022, a Palestinian gunman who infiltrated Israel from Jenin shot and killed three Israeli civilians on Tel Aviv's bustling Dizengoff Street, before being shot dead by police in Jaffa hours later. In an eerily similar terrorist atrocity committed on March 9, a Palestinian terrorist who infiltrated Israel from Nil'in in Judea and Samaria, commonly known as the West Bank, committed another atrocity on Tel Aviv's Dizengoff Street, shooting and wounding three Israeli civilians, one critically.

Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram

Yet in between these two events was a rolling Israel Defense Forces security operation called "Operation Breakwater," which has made significant achievements in fighting terrorism in Judea and Samaria, but has not extinguished the wave of violence, as the latest attack demonstrates.

On March 12, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi and the Commanding Officer of IDF Central Command, Maj. Gen. Yehuda Fox, who is responsible for Judea and Samaria, spoke at an event honoring the forces participating in the ongoing operation.

"The IDF is carrying out 'Operation Breakwater with the assistance of a large and high-quality reserve force that works alongside active-duty forces. Fifty-six reserve battalions were summoned and arrived to carry out the terrorism-fighting mission," said Halevi.

Maj. Nir Dinar, head of the IDF's International Press Department, told JNS in recent days that the operation had a number of main focuses. The first, he said, is boosting the number of reinforcements and battalions operating in Judea and Samaria. The second is increasing the number of arrest operations, primarily in the Nablus and Jenin areas, where the Palestinian Authority has largely lost control.

For roughly six months prior to the outbreak of the terror wave last March, the IDF almost totally refrained from entering those areas, in an attempt to allow the PA to take control. The result, however, was a series of deadly attacks in Israeli cities, prompting the IDF to work tirelessly in Jenin and Nablus to track down, pursue and reach the terrorists.

"Our first duty is to our citizens. Security operations are occurring almost every day," said Dinar.

In 2022, 33 Israelis lost their lives in terrorist attacks, while so far this year, after just three and a half months, the Israeli casualty number already stands at 14. Nevertheless, Dinar stressed, "Hundreds of people – civilians and IDF soldiers – have been saved as a result of these security operations."

Some 70 Palestinians – most of them armed terrorists but also a minority of civilians – have been killed in firefights between the IDF and Palestinian gunmen during Judea and Samaria security operations in 2023 so far. Last year, the number of Palestinian casualties stood at over 140, according to media reports – the highest since 2004.

"Operation Breakwater" is fueled by intelligence, Dinar said. "So long as there is intelligence of terrorist plots, there will be counter-terrorist operations," he added.

However, the operation has taken a significant toll on the IDF's readiness with regard to other arenas. The sending of dozens of back-up battalions to Judea and Samaria, including reserves who joined conscripted units, has come at the expense of training and preparedness to combat enemies like Hezbollah.

Dinar acknowledged that there have been fewer drills this past year, as ground forces deal with counter-terrorism and policing operations instead.

One of the vulnerabilities exposed during the start of last year's terror wave was the fact that the Judea and Samaria security barrier was filled with gaps.

On March 2, the IDF announced that 12 kilometers of a new security fence were completed as part of "Operation Breakwater." Led by the IDF's Judea Brigade, the construction effort "has led to a substantial decrease in the number of illegal infiltrations into Israel. In the past few weeks alone, security forces have turned away over 150 vehicles and apprehended over 600 suspects attempting to infiltrate into Israeli territory illegally," said the IDF.

"As part of the operation, Combat Engineering Corps battalions and the Heavy Machinery Unit operated over 60 dedicated tools. Additionally, two military posts were established and security forces were stationed permanently in the area in order to prevent illegal crossings and strengthen the defense of the State of Israel. The Central Command's Engineering Array continues to operate in the area to improve and strengthen the security fence," it stated.

Brig. Gen. Avi Bluth, commanding officer of the Judea and Samaria Division, said that his division "has undergone a transformation since the beginning of Operation Breakwater. The construction of the security fence, the expansion of freedom of action and the significant thwarting [of terrorist attacks] – these provide protection. We transformed the reality in Judea and Samaria. We reduced the number of infiltrators who illegally entered the State of Israel from hundreds to just a few per day and reduced the scope of terrorism and crime in the area."

Further north, the Israeli Defense Ministry and IDF Central Command are constructing a new 45 kilometer-long security barrier separating the State of Israel from northern Samaria.

Dedicated battalions have been in position along the barrier to prevent infiltrations.

"We can say that the number of infiltrations has decreased by hundreds of percent," said Dinar said, "from tens of thousands per month down to tens."

"Turning the fence into a wall is a part of this initiative, similar to the Gaza barrier," he added.

Looking ahead, the Israeli defense establishment has identified some willingness by the PA to try and regain control in Nablus, although this willingness is tempered by the ongoing chaotic and unstable reality that has sapped the motivation of the PA's security forces at this time.

The Israeli defense establishment continues to assess that a strong PA on the ground is a core Israeli security interest, as this saves the IDF resources and prevents it from having to directly police and manage Palestinian cities.

Beyond the terrorist hornet's nests of Jenin and Nablus, the PA is still in control of much of its territory at this time – a situation the Israeli defense establishment is interested in preserving.

Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!

Still, the horizon is filled with dark storm clouds. With Ramadan, a highly combustible period, around the corner, radical incitement to terrorism and violence flooding Palestinian social media, largely fueled by Hamas, tensions high in Jerusalem and the Temple Mount flash point, the PA's continued weakness, and this month's terrorist shooting in Tel Aviv, the Palestinian arena looks to be on the verge of another escalation.

The February 26 riot by Israeli youths in Huwara, in which they set conducted arson attacks on Palestinian homes in revenge for the murder of Israeli brothers Hallel Menachem and Yagal Yaakov Yaniv, aged 21 and 19, as they drove through the village, has also called into question the IDF's ability to deal with and manage such incidents.

Two Israeli suspects remain in administrative detention in connection with the Huwara riot. The Israel Police has, meanwhile, launched an investigation into the shooting death of a Palestinian man in the nearby village of Za'atra that same night.

Communal friction between Jews and Palestinians in Area C of Judea and Samaria is another trigger point that threatens to contribute to the escalation.

The coming year will see the IDF working hard to contain Palestinian terrorism, and to try and prevent further destabilization of the area.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

The post 'IDF anti-terrorism operation has saved hundreds of Israeli lives' appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

A decision by the FBI to investigate the Israel Defense Forces over the May 11 death of Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh in Jenin undermines the official positions of the Pentagon and the United States State Department, both of which welcomed the IDF's own investigation into the matter, an Israeli expert on US-Israeli relations told JNS.

Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram

Professor Eytan Gilboa of Bar-Ilan University described the decision to launch the investigation as scandalous.

"Not only is it a vote of no confidence in the IDF's investigation, but also in the Pentagon, since the US Coordinator for Israel and the Palestinian Authority, Lt. Gen. Michael R. Fenzel, himself welcomed the IDF's investigation. So, this activity by the FBI is undercutting the US's own position," he said.

Gilboa, who is also a Senior Fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, noted that the IDF investigation had concluded that while an Israeli soldier likely fired the shot that killed Abu Akleh, the shooting was unintentional.

"If it was Israeli fire, it's clear that it was an accident. The decision therefore to investigate is unprecedented," said Gilboa. While the United States and Israel have cooperated in past investigations, such as the investigation into the Jonathan Pollard affair, such collaboration was justified, unlike this case, said Gilboa.

Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz on Tuesday called the US Justice Ministry's decision to investigate Abu Akleh's death "a serious mistake," adding that Israel would not cooperate with it.

Outgoing Prime Minister Yair Lapid insisted in a statement that Israeli troops "will not be investigated by the FBI or by any other foreign country or entity, however friendly it may be." Israel had conveyed its "strong protest" against the move to Washington, he said.

According to Gilboa, the FBI's decision harms American interests, too, by creating problematic precedents regarding unintentional deaths during armed conflicts.

"According to a study by Brown University published in September 2021, during the campaign known as the global war on terror, since 2021, 680 journalists were killed. A body known as the Committee to Protect Journalists found that 13 journalists were definitely killed by the US military in Iraq. Washington said that its soldiers did not violate regulations in any of these cases," noted Gilboa.

"In 2011, a Spanish court accused three American soldiers of killing a Spanish photojournalist, Jose Cuoso, in Baghdad, during the 2003 shelling of the Palestine Hotel. A Wikileaks document later revealed that the proceedings were dropped after diplomatic pressure was applied on Madrid by Washington," he said.

"In 2007, US Apache helicopters killed noncombatants, including two Reuters journalists. The US can't demand of us what it does not demand of itself," he argued.

Gilboa described Gantz's response as correct, saying that any cooperation with an FBI investigation would create a precedent.

"Israel has to stop this quietly, at a high level. Someone in the FBI took a decision to do this, and I'm not sure whether Attorney General Merrick Garland knew about this," he said. "Clearly, the FBI has no authority in Israel and can't investigate any [Israeli] soldier. The entire issue has [already] been examined in any case.

Even if one assumes that it was indeed an Israeli bullet that killed Abu Akleh, it's obvious that her death was an accident, he said, adding, "so what is there to investigate?"

Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!

In any combat situation, he insisted, "There are instances of friendly fire, where soldiers mistakenly kill their own, and operational mistakes are bound to happen when fighting terrorists who dress like civilians."

Some have speculated that the investigation is a warning to the incoming Israeli government of Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu, but Gilboa said this scenario was unlikely.

"The United States has the right to say it won't work with [Netanyahu coalition partner MK Itamar] Ben-Gvir due to his previous ties to [outlawed Israeli-American rabbi and politician Meir] Kahane, each side has the right to determine its level of cooperation. But beyond that, I doubt the FBI investigation is about this. Most likely, this was a decision taken at the intermediate level in the organization," he assessed.

Gantz and his US counterpart, US Gen. (ret.) Lloyd Austin, are "the best that has existed between American and Israeli defense ministers, because these are two generals speaking the same language," said Gilboa. "Gantz should seek Austin's help to deal with the FBI."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

The post FBI investigation of IDF 'undermines the Pentagon's own conclusions' appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

The "Lightning Shield" international exercise involving F-35s from the Israeli and Italian air forces, held in late July in Israel, marked a significant moment in Israel's military cooperation with partners, an IAF source has said.

Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram

The exercise took off on July 24, when four Italian F-35 fighter aircraft entered Israeli air space and two Israeli F-35s accompanied them to Nevatim airbase in southern Israel.

It involved F-35 jets from the IAF's 116th and 140th squadrons, the Italian 13th Squadron, and the IAF's Nachson 122nd squadron, which flies special mission aircraft with advanced intelligence-gathering and mission-planning capabilities onboard.

The drill helped boost the operational readiness of the IAF's F-35 squadrons, as well as broaden its capabilities for what the IAF describes as "potential operational scenarios."

The IAF, like the US Air Force, is currently testing all F-35s in its inventory for a potential seat-ejection issue, though that is expected to be complete within days.

Capt. N., the exercise leader from the 116th Squadron, said in recent days that hosting an international drill of this nature in Israel places the IAF "at the forefront of F-35 operators, globally."

"It is an opportunity to reflect our strengths together with a chance to get to know and learn about our partners in the international arena," he stated.

The joint exercise and its complex missions are a testament to the strong Israeli-Italian military relationship, which is continuing to grow stronger, said Capt. N.

Israel's role in such an international coalition ultimately strengthens national security, he added.

In the first flight of the exercise, he recounted that "we drilled war scenarios in which an array of international planes flies into the depth of enemy territory in order to conduct a complex mission."

On the second flight, the aircrews held a "fundamentals" exercise, which is less familiar to the Italian pilots. This involved low-altitude flights, attack sorties and close air combat.

Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!

The exercise featured full Israeli-Italian cooperation – from joint pre-flight briefings, integrated flight formations made up of Israeli and Italian pilots, and joint debriefs.

"The joint learning found expression in all of these stages. Every side expressed its perspective on the mission implementation, and together as a group, we moved forward throughout this week," said the IAF officer.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

The post Israeli-Italian F-35 drill 'a milestone in IAF's international cooperation' appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

Since being launched by the Israel Defense Forces in March this year, Operation Breakwater, aimed at stopping a wave of deadly Palestinian terror attacks against Israelis, has significantly dented the motivation and intent of terrorists in the West Bank to act.

Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram

The latest signs of this trend appeared early on Tuesday when the Israeli military launched an operation that resulted in the arrest of Bassam Saadi, the leader of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in the West Bank, who is suspected of constructing terror cells in the region.

The Israeli forces that entered Jenin were met with gunfire, and a battle ensued. At least one gunman, later claimed by PIJ as one of its members, was killed, and others were injured.

The Israeli forces did not suffer any casualties while seizing weapons, ammunition and cash. A total of 12 terror suspects were arrested that night, and more than 50 were captured in recent days on suspicion of involvement in terrorist activity.

The northern West Bank represents an epicenter of growth in terror activity over the past year, particularly in the cities of Jenin and Nablus.

Even before the wave of terror erupted in March and April, leading to the murder of 19 people, the IDF's Central Command already identified back in December 2021 that a challenging period was coming up on the horizon.

After the May armed conflict between Hamas and Israel, which erupted during the Ramadan period of 2021, the Israeli defense establishment identified the upcoming Passover and Ramadan period of 2022 as a flashpoint.

As a result of this assessment, the territorial brigades of the IDF that operate across the West Bank began preparing for a range of scenarios. Preparations were also made on the ground.

The terrorist attack that stuck Beersheba on March 22 was conducted by a terrorist acting on ISIS ideology, while two terrorist gunmen who went on a deadly shooting spree in Hadera on March 27 were also motivated by ISIS ideology. Unlike expectations for the West Bank to be the scene of the major violence, Arab terrorists had struck from within Israel. Two days later, however, the wave shifted, as a terrorist from Ya'bad, near Jenin, launched a deadly shooting attack in Bnei Brak.

By that time, the IDF's Central Command was dealing with intelligence alerts of multiple shooting terror cells plotting attacks from the West Bank, against Israeli targets on both sides of the Green Line. Shooting attacks had become the central modus operandi of the terrorists, most of whom were locally organized or acted on their own, though they were fueled by massive incitement to violence, particularly on social media, by Hamas and other terror elements.

The escalation had arrived, and the IDF's brigades in the West Bank went into action. Several gunmen were shot dead in seconds after launching their attacks – a response time enabled due to prior preparedness measures. This was accomplished without changes to the IDF's rules of engagement.

Then the number of attacks inside Israel dropped drastically, as "Operation Breakwater" gained momentum, and nightly raids were conducted by the IDF in the heart of terrorist hornet's nests, like the Jenin Refugee Camp. A growing number of cells planning attacks on civilians were foiled at the planning stage, with Israeli security forces reaching them in their homes in the dead of night and surprising them.

Meanwhile, Central Command deployed large forces to gaps in the security fence used by terrorists to infiltrate Israel, and the Israeli Ministry of Defense fast-tracked a large-scale program to build a barrier in the high-risk areas.

The result was a plummet in the number of attacks within Israel and a significant drop in terrorism in the West Bank as well.

While the operation also extend south into the Judea area, most of the terrorists and cells remained focused in the northern Samaria section.

The number of terrorists captured and cells thwarted has led to a significant drop in their motivation and intent to act, although the risk has, of course, not vanished.

As the IDF focused its raids on northern West Bank cities, it increasingly ran into informal "battalions" made up of gunmen who are affiliated with terror organizations like Hamas and PIJ. Such gunmen often pose in the streets with their firearms but do not launch frontal assaults on IDF units taking part in security raids; rather, they fire when they see an IDF operation in progress and flee.

Many have been hit by IDF return fire despite the hit-and-run tactics. Such gunmen have not recently conducted frequent shooting attacks on roads used by Israeli drivers in the area or on Israeli communities in the West Bank, though there have been sporadic incidents of that nature.

Meanwhile, after a spike in attempts by Hamas and PIJ to orchestrate terrorism in the West Bank from their headquarters in Gaza and in Lebanon, such attempts have returned to more "normal" levels recently. These remote orchestration efforts, in which local terrorists are often recruited over the Internet and receive money to begin purchasing firearms (and recruit additional members), as well as instructions, are also focused in the northern West Bank.

The Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) disrupts hundreds of such plots every year.

Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!

Throughout this period, security coordination between the IDF and the Palestinian Authority's security forces has remained at an overall high level, irrespective of the diplomatic clashes between Israel and the PA

Forged by a common interest in repressing Hamas and PIJ in the West Bank, the PA has not resisted the IDF's stepped-up counter-terror raids in the West Bank at all, after its own forces struggled greatly in places like Jenin.

Meanwhile, the number of Palestinians illegally crossing from the northern West Bank into Israel has dropped from thousands to tens per day, and as the security barrier begins to approach completion, those who will cross to work in Israel for weeks at a time may find themselves unable to return home.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

The post Operation Breakwater reins in terrorism in Judea and Samaria appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

The latest reminder of Israel's shadow war in Syria aimed at preventing Iran from installing advanced weapons and military bases in Syria or transferring them to the Hezbollah terror organization steeped in Lebanon came on July 22 when Syrian state media reported that three regime soldiers associated with the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad were killed in an Israeli airstrike that hit targets in the Sayyidah Zaynab area south of Damascus.

Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram

The Syrian report outlined an Israeli modus operandi that has appeared in previous reports as well: Missiles fired from the direction of the Israeli Golan (it is unclear whether they were fired by an aircraft or from the ground), striking a number of positions in and around the country's capital.

According to the Alma Center, an Israeli defense research center, the strikes may have targeted a shipment of precision-guided missile components intended for Hezbollah's precision-guided missile program, and for Hezbollah's independent production of unmanned aerial vehicles.

Since it began in 2013 in the midst of Syria's civil war, Israel's shadow campaign – dubbed the campaign between the wars in the defense establishment – has seen thousands of munitions fired at targets in Syria and turned Israel into the only state in the world consistently directing its firepower at Iranian entrenchment efforts in the Middle East.

Iran, for its part, seems determined to continue its entrenchment activities with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hossein Salami reportedly paying a visit to Syria last week, possibly to plan out the next stages of Iran in Syria.

"The campaign between the wars is a strategy, not a tactical event," Lt. Col. (ret.) Orna Mizrahi, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said.

"It developed over time; adjustments were made in line with changing conditions. Strategically, its main purpose is to delay the next war, while also reducing enemy military capabilities, and creating deterrence while also creating more comfortable conditions for Israel at the start of any potential future war," said Mizrahi, a former Deputy National Security Adviser for Foreign Policy at the National Security Council.

Advanced weapons are most likely to attract Israeli airstrikes, as are attempts to build terrorist or military bases by the Iranian-led axis close to the Israeli border. Weapons warehouses containing arms destined for enemies of Israel – whether Hezbollah or Iranian-backed militias in Syria – appear to have formed many of the targets over the years.

Still, noted Mizrahi, Israel attempts to act with precision, avoiding noncombatants as much as possible.

'Deterrence equation in place'

Meanwhile, Hezbollah has threatened to retaliate if its members are killed in Syria by Israeli strikes.

Mizrahi, who also served as a former intelligence analyst in the Israel Defense Force's Military Intelligence Research Division, said some who had high hopes that Israel's campaign would neutralize the Iranian presence in Syria or stop all weapons transfers have been in for a disappointment.

"The main issue with the IDF's campaign is that it delivers relatively partial results. It's not an ultimate solution. It can' bring a total change. But that does not mean it has no achievements," she explained. "While these achievements are limited, there is no doubt it pushed away problematic elements from the Syrian Golan near Israel and damaged Iranian entrenchment abilities in Syria. It reduced the arms flow to Hezbollah and forced the Iranian-Hezbollah axis to change working methods. Still, this is not a fundamental change to the situation."

The question of how long Israel's campaign between the wars can continue – and the extent of the influence it has on the ground – is a fixed dilemma for the defense establishment, said Mizrahi.

"The conditions of the Syrian civil war allowed the IDF to operate in the Syrian arena mainly, but this campaign is not active in a similar way in Lebanon because of the [mutual] deterrence equation in place between Israel and Hezbollah," she assessed, adding that "there's always a debate over how much it has an influence, how much it can harm enemy capabilities, and the extent of the deterrence it generates."

Multiple actors in Syria could, in theory, alter their response to Israel's campaign and affect the cost-benefit calculations in Israel. "Decisions by Syria, Iran or Russia could change," noted Mizrahi.

'The balance could change'

On May 13, international media reports said that amid rising tensions between Jerusalem and Moscow over the war in Ukraine, a Russian-made S-300 surface-to-air missile battery stationed in northern Syria fired at Israeli Air Force jets for the first time.

"Israel has tried to walk a fine line, preserving relations with Russia as a great power," said Mizrahi. "In the past, the assessment here in Israel was that Russia permitted Israeli strikes because of the tension that exists between Russia and Iran over who controls Syria. In this context, it was very comfortable for Russia that Israel worked against Iran, thereby boosting Russian influence in Syria and making it more significant than Iranian influence."

That, however, could change due to the Russian war on Ukraine, which has pushed Russian President Vladimir Putin into a closer relationship with the Iranian regime.

"The balance could change," stated Mizrachi. "Still, I think that Russia has no interest in creating friction with Israel when it is so heavily engaged in Ukraine. Russia's air base and naval base in Syria are very important to it. Russia views Israel as a regional military power that has to be taken into consideration, and which can harm it. Hence, they hint that Israel should act differently in Syria, but they do not take significant military or diplomatic steps to make Israel stop its campaign,"

Although a number of observers have already eulogized the campaign in Syria or claimed that its time is up, the fact is that Israel continues with it, she noted.

Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!

"Even if less comfortable conditions arise, the campaign can still continue. But I won't say it can continue forever. Circumstances can change enough to force Israel to reconsider, whether that is a Russian decision to activate air-defense systems, or to allow Syria to do so," cautioned Mizrahi.

Syria is in possession of Russian-made S-300 batteries.

"At the moment, the Israeli campaign continues, and so it should. It should go on as long as possible," she affirmed. "It has achievements, even if they are limited and partial."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

The post Israel's shadow campaign in Syria 'a strategy that delivers partial results' appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

The Israel Defense Forces is usually focused on protecting the State of Israel against its enemies, but in recent months, it has increasingly been engaged in protecting the environment.

Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram

Lt. Col. Moteea Dagash, head of the Construction Branch in the Technology and Logistics Directorate, told JNS recently that the IDF has taken a decision to boost its involvement in environmental issues wherever it can.

This means taking measures to protect the environment at IDF bases, camps and other facilities, and adapting itself to trends in the civilian market, said Dagash. The IDF remains the largest organization in the State of Israel.

"Nationally, we are an inseparable part of environmental organizations' activities," he stated. "We set ourselves as a safeguard of the environment and to help maintain a good standard of life for soldiers. From this, we created a working plan that has many aspects."

One example of this is the intensified IDF effort over the past year to deal with waste in new ways, both to clear it from IDF camps quickly and to recycle greater quantities of garbage.

This, said Dagash, is being done with greater cooperation from the civilian sector. Ridding IDF camps of waste quickly produces a better standard of service for IDF soldiers, enabling them to reside and train in a cleaner environment, he said.

The IDF has recently installed sensors in garbage containers, too. "This lets us conduct real-time tracking of the volume of existing waste. Instead of losing time and using personnel inefficiently by sending them to collect waste according to a set schedule, we operate now according to an accurate indication and send out collectors when the sensors indicate that the containers reached 90% capacity. This is a far more precise way of using personnel," he explained.

'A very positive trend'

Meanwhile, recycling is increasing as time goes by, and the IDF has turned to professionals in the waste industry to chart new courses in this sector.

"What is recycled? Anything that we can, we recycle. This includes all metals, which we put aside for recycling. We want to reach a stage where the big percentage of our waste is recycled, and the minority goes to a landfill," he said.

The IDF's target is to recycle 70% of its waste, said Dagash. Cardboards are also heading for waste bins rather than landfills.

The Israeli military is also learning from the civilian world how to convert local waste into energy.

To that end, it has employed a civilian company to take its organic waste from IDF kitchens and convert it into biogas—defined as gaseous fuel, especially methane, produced by the fermentation of organic matter—it can then use for the kitchen's heating needs and for powering dishwashers.

"We have decreased the use of disposable cutlery by 20%," said Dagash. "This is a very positive trend."

Dagash's branch has selected representatives throughout the entire IDF to communicate and monitor decisions pertaining to environmental protection. The representatives are active "from the smallest to the largest military camp," he said.

"We are cooperating with the Israel Energy Authority in the Energy Ministry, and, of course, with the Environmental Protection Ministry," he added.

Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!

At the same time, the IDF is seeking to merge its existing gas stations and decrease those numbers in general, leaving only what is truly needed in order to play its part in decreasing pollution.

"We are mindful of the environment, and its effect on soldiers and civilians," affirmed Dagash. "This area of activity will be dominant in our future discussions and activities."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

The post IDF sets sights on new objective: Environmental protection appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

A recent report that Hamas and Syria have reestablished relations after a decade of rupture between them is a source of concern for Israel, Michael Barak, a senior researcher at the Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Herzliya, told Jewish News Syndicate.

Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram

The Palestinian terrorist group has "decided to restore ties with Syria 10 years after its leadership shunned Damascus over opposition to President Bashar Assad's crackdown on a revolt against his rule," according to Reuters, citing two Hamas members.

The terrorist group, which rules the Gaza Strip, had to vacate its Damascus headquarters in 2012 after it came down on the side of Sunni rebels who were fighting to topple the minority Alawite Assad regime from power that year. Palestinian Islamic Jihad – the second-largest armed terror faction in Gaza – has remained in Damascus.

Hamas' position on the Syrian war also harmed its ties with Iran for several years until those relations were restored in 2017, and Iranian financial and operational assistance to Hamas resumed.

'Hezbollah in Lebanon was involved'

According to Barak, the reports of a new breakthrough in ties between Damascus and Hamas appear credible.

"Hezbollah in Lebanon was involved in this reconciliation," he said. "The efforts led to a green light from Hamas and the Syrian regime. Why did it happen now? It took time for Hezbollah to mediate and for relations to thaw."

"This is a source of concern for Israel because we know that Hamas is building up its presence in the north of Lebanon. If Hamas opens a headquarters in Syria, it can start building capabilities in Syria, too," cautioned Barak.

With much of Syria under Iranian control, Hamas has a new opportunity to receive access to weapons from Iranian-backed forces in the area, such as Hezbollah and pro-Iranian Shiite militias.

"This is an arena that can develop in Syria," Barak assessed.

Noting the changes that have occurred since 2012 that have facilitated the reconciliation, Barak said: "We should remember that the geostrategic conditions have changed. In 2012, [then-Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood President] Mohammad Morsi rose to power and this led Hamas to cancel relations with Syria, which was butchering its Sunni population. Hamas also reduced ties with Iran to minimal relations. But since then, the Assad regime has grown stronger; Iran is advancing in its nuclear program; Morsi is gone; and Hamas has been left isolated in the region."

He explained that "Hamas concluded that it is correct to first improve relations with Iran through the involvement of Hezbollah. Now, Hezbollah has helped secure reconciliation between Hamas and Syria; this is part of an Iranian strategic calculation to turn Syria into another zone of activity for Palestinian terror organizations."

Looking ahead, Barak posited a scenario in which Hamas could act as the arrowhead of Palestinian terrorist factions in Syria with the blessing of Hezbollah and Iran.

On June 23, Hamas' Political Bureau Head Ismail Haniyeh met with Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut in their first meeting in a year.

The two discussed their "axis of resistance" against Israel, according to Hezbollah media outlet Al-Manar.

Also in Beirut recently, Hezbollah has held a series of meetings with other Palestinian factions, such as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and PIJ.

Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!

"The goal is to find a way to unite ranks and to discuss how to strengthen the Palestinian 'bloc' in the resistance axis," Barak said.

"Hamas is trying to create a command and control mechanism with other Palestinian factions in Lebanon so that it can operate in a more efficient manner from Lebanon, and now, Syria's door is open, too. This is a force multiplier," he stated.

Jordan could be less than thrilled to find Hamas cells operating near its border, according to Barak.

Egypt, also concerned by Iranian hegemonic aspirations in the Middle East, will take a dim view of the increasing amalgamation of Hamas with the Iranian axis, he added. "It makes Hamas look worse in Egyptian eyes," he said, "like it is getting closer to the Iranian-Shiite crescent."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

The post Hamas reconciliation with Syria 'source of concern' for Israel appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

In recent days, Hezbollah has stepped up threats to attack Israel's offshore gas-drilling activities in the Karish gas field, off the coast of Haifa, due to an unresolved maritime border dispute between Israel.

Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram

Israel maintains that Karish is in its exclusive economic zone in the Mediterranean Sea, while Lebanon claims that the field is located in disputed waters. Israel has repeatedly called for United States-mediated negotiations to resolve the border issue. Talks began in 2020 but ended in 2021 after Lebanon refused to compromise its claim that its part of the border includes 1,400 square kilometers (540 square miles) of additional sea territory, which includes the Karish field.

On June 6, Hezbollah warned that it was ready to take military action against Israeli gas-production operations after the Greek-British Energean company sent a gas production ship to the area ahead of expected extraction work.

"When the Lebanese state says that the Israelis are assaulting our waters and our oil, then we are ready to do our part in terms of pressure, deterrence and use of appropriate means, including force," said Hezbollah deputy secretary-general Sheikh Naim Qassem.

"The issue requires a decisive decision from the Lebanese state," he added, saying that Hezbollah "urged the government to hurry up to set a deadline for itself."

Qassem said the Iran-backed group would act "no matter the response," even if it led to a broader conflict, according to the report.

On June 9, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah called Israeli gas activities in the area "provocations."

Nasrallah said Israel should wait for the results of the negotiations and that any drilling that takes place before an agreement will be considered a direct assault on Lebanon, according to the Associated Press.

"All options are on the table," he warned.

Yet on June 14, Lebanese officials told Reuters that Beirut is "preparing to offer a compromise to U.S. energy envoy Amos Hochstein" to resolve the dispute.

Hochstein landed in Beirut on June 13 at the invitation of the Lebanese government, marking new attempts to reach a diplomatic solution.

Professor Boaz Ganor, founder and executive director of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Herzliya, told JNS that two key variables need to be examined to ascertain the severity of Hezbollah's threats: capability and intentions.

"Does Hezbollah have the ability to implement its threat and could the organization have the motivation and determination to hit the rig? The answer to the first question is apparently affirmative. Hezbollah has the proven ability to fire advanced shore-to-sea missiles to strike the rig. But the question of motivation is more complex," said Ganor.

"I assess that Hezbollah understands that any strike on the Karish gas rig will lead to no less than war, including between Israel and Hezbollah, and the state that grants Hezbollah cover. Israel cannot contain such an attack and would extract a heavy price from Hezbollah. Hezbollah, in turn, cannot contain the Israeli reaction, and from here, the distance to full war is short," he stated.

Such a war would cause Israel substantial damage, but it would be "catastrophic for Lebanon," said Ganor. "It will also neutralize Hezbollah's military arsenal that was built by Iran as a strategic deterrent against Israel. This is a price Iran would be unwilling to pay. Hence, I assess that Hezbollah will be very careful to avoid rolling a snowball down the mountain that it can very quickly lost control of."

According to a report by Walla, the Israel Defense Forces in recent days have sounded the alert on the risk of Hezbollah "protesting" Israel's decision to begin drilling for gas in the region, but cited military sources as assessing that "Hezbollah won't go far at the start. We are ready for provocations."

The sources said they are preparing for various scenarios – from incidents of small arms fire in the air, an approach by a threatening vessel, to attempts to sabotage the drilling. The IDF is gathering precise intelligence and increasing its unmanned aerial vehicle patrols, as well as continuous patrols to provide early alerts and thwart threats in time, said the report.

'The economic benefit of the gas'

Maj. (res.) Tal Beeri, head of the research department at the Alma Center, a defense research center in northern Israel, said that in theory that Hezbollah has no interest in escalating the military situation with Israel at this time.

"What is holding it back? Its involvement in the Lebanese political-government system, especially during this sensitive post-elections period. Hezbollah is trying to shape next government and wants this government to be something it can 'bless,' " said Beeri.

The Iranian-backed terror organization also does not want to be perceived as the entity that pushed away lucrative gas resources from Lebanon's reach, he added, further harming Lebanon's battered economy.

"As a result, Hezbollah is constantly emphasizing that it is subordinate to Lebanese government decisions on this matter. It recognized the economic benefit of the gas, and more importantly, it is interested in how this gas can help Hezbollah's state within a state inside Lebanon," noted Beeri.

On the other hand, Hezbollah markets itself as the defender of Lebanon, and it recently took a decision to portray the maritime dispute as being on the same level as Hezbollah's war to push Israel out of Southern Lebanon throughout the 1980s and 1990s, he cautioned.

Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!

"On June 9, Nasrallah gave a speech that is relatively combative and not part of a trend of moderation," said Beeri. "Raising the maritime dispute to the level of 'liberating' Southern Lebanon from Israel is very powerful messaging."

"The big question is: Did Nasrallah paint himself into a corner with this rhetoric? Or is he only doing this for internal consumption? In all likelihood, Nasrallah expects that there will be a negotiated arrangement to this issue. Lebanon won't get all it wants, but at least it will earn some revenue, and he will be able to say that 'only because I threatened Israel and defended Lebanon was Beirut able to reach these objectives,' " he concluded.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

The post Hezbollah heats up rhetoric over Israel-Lebanon maritime dispute appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

The Syrian regime led by President Bashar Assad risks losing its Damascus International Airport if Iran continues to use the site to smuggle advanced weapons to Hezbollah, the head of research at an Israeli defense research center has warned.

Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram

Speaking just days after international media reports said Israel struck its latest blow against Damascus International, Maj. (res.) Tal Beeri, head of the research department at the Alma Center, said, "The message is clear. So long as Iran's air corridor for smuggling weapons from Iran to Syria and Lebanon continues, the Syrian state will be seen as responsible by the attacking party. So long as Syria won't act, the airport will continue to be a target."

Future attacks could include a "roof knock" – dropping empty munitions to serve as a warning – on the airport's control tower and destroying it after it is evacuated, assessed Beeri, or strikes on the airport's radars.

"If the message isn't received, attacks could escalate further, to the point that serious damage is caused to the airport, and it will take more than a few days to repair," he said. "The messaging is not aimed at Iran – that is a lost cause. It is determined to continue trafficking arms to Hezbollah. It is aimed at Syria."

Such strikes place Damascus in a dilemma and force it to conduct a cost-benefit analysis, he argued. Iran's stepped-up weapons smuggling is also enabled by the fact that Russia's attention is focused on its war on Ukraine and less on Syria these days.

Until the start of the war in Ukraine on Feb. 24, Russia had begun challenging some of Iran's areas of control in Syria, said Be'eri, and it would likely have demanded that Iran stops using Damascus International Airport as a trafficking hub for rockets, missiles and precision components for projectiles that Israel has warned cross a red line for proliferation by the radical Iranian-led axis.

"In the end, the Syrians are in a trap," said Beeri. "They invited the Iranians to assist them in the civil war. That has a cost, which is heavy because they ended up with a foreign entity on their soil that operates almost with full independence to pursue Iranian interests and goals, not Syrian ones."

Iran is pursuing a long-term military entrenchment program in Syria while using it as a transit zone for moving weapons to Hezbollah warehouses in neighboring Lebanon. Beeri recalled that in addition to the air corridor, Iran has attempted to traffic arms via the sea, through Syria's Latakia port, and uses a ground corridor as well via Iraq. All three have reportedly been disrupted by Israel's "campaign between the wars" to dent adversary force build-up, and to sabotage Iran's goal of encircling Israel with rocket and missile bases.

"The aerial corridors have been very, very active," said Beeri. "Iran took advantage of 'innocent' passenger flights from Iran to Syria and injected cargo planes into this route carrying weapons."

This cuts down the 1,800-kilometer (1,118-mile) trip time-wise – from a day of nonstop driving to a two-and-a-half-hour flight, skipping over challenging, unsecure terrain, said Beeri.

"Hence, they amplified this corridor," he stated.

The Damascus airport is divided into a southern military zone and a northern civilian zone. Iran's cargo planes can use both types of runways, and the Islamic Republic has built a ring of infrastructure within and around the airport for storing weapons that land there, and moving them by vehicle to eastern Lebanon's Beka'a Valley, which is Hezbollah's logistical heartland, according to Beeri.

"The airport has a full buffer zone, and storage and security systems to facilitate this movement of weapons from Damascus to the Lebanese border," he said.

Professor Eyal Zisser, chair of Tel Aviv University's Contemporary History of the Middle East, said he believed Iran would explore alternative routes in light of the increased pressure on Damascus airport.

"There are many other airports in Syria," he said. "If small equipment is being smuggled, as reports in Israel have said, they could also try to smuggle them through direct flight to Beirut or overland through Iraq," he assessed. "I don't believe they will give up easily on what they view as a strategic maneuver."

Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!

Beeri said that while using Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport was a possibility for Iran's Quds Force, which is responsible for clandestine overseas support for terror organizations, the working environment at Lebanon's national gateway is less comfortable than that of Damascus.

"Despite the heavy presence of Hezbollah at Beirut's airport, they are worried about others making Iranian activities public there – and there is no shortage of Lebanese who would do that," said Beeri.

He recalled how in November, an Iranian national soccer team landed in Beirut for a game against Lebanon, and how quickly the Lebanese and Arab media reported the unusual number of suitcases carried by the players for a two-day visit.

"The media immediately made the connection to weapons," said Beeri. "This is the kind of limelight Iran and Hezbollah fear."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

The post 'If Syria continues to let Iranian weapon planes land, it risks losing airport' appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.