Israel is set to launch a contentious pilot program for governing postwar Gaza, according to a report by the Financial Times. The plan involves creating a series of "humanitarian enclaves" or "bubbles" designed to be free from Hamas control but has been met with widespread skepticism from those briefed on the details.

The experimental model is slated to begin soon in the northern Gaza neighborhoods of Atatra, Beit Hanoun, and Beit Lahia, as reported by the Financial Times, citing six sources familiar with the plan. Under this scheme, the Israeli military would channel aid from the nearby  Erez crossing to vetted local Palestinians, who would distribute it and gradually assume civilian governance responsibilities. Israeli forces would initially ensure security in these areas.

However, the viability of this plan faces significant challenges. One person with knowledge of the proposal described it to the Financial Times as a "fantasy" project, citing violent opposition from Hamas, infighting within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, and lukewarm support from Arab states.

The initiative comes after months of international pressure on Netanyahu's government to formulate a credible alternative for postwar Gaza governance. However, two individuals briefed on the plan told the Financial Times that it appears to be a rehash of previous unsuccessful attempts.

"We already tried this in three different parts of central and north Gaza, including with local clans. They were all either beaten up or killed by Hamas," a former senior Israeli official familiar with postwar planning told the Financial Times.

Recent events underscore the dangers faced by those perceived as cooperating with Israel. Last week, deadly clashes erupted between Hamas security personnel and a prominent clan in central Gaza after Hamas executed the head of the Abu Amra family over alleged "receptivity" to Israeli overtures, according to a Gaza security source.

Hamas has vehemently rejected any external interference in Gaza's future. In a statement last Tuesday, the group declared it would "sever any hand of the [Israeli] occupation trying to tamper with the destiny and future of our people."

The plan faces additional hurdles due to Netanyahu's consistent rejection of any role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and his refusal to consider a pathway to Palestinian statehood. Despite this stance, Netanyahu and his senior aides continue to insist that Arab governments will play a major role in postwar arrangements.

Tzachi Hanegbi, Israel's national security advisor, called for "top-down leadership" from moderate Arab countries, along with the US, EU, and UN, to create an "alternative to Hamas" in combination with local Palestinian leadership.

However, Arab officials have rebuffed such proposals without the involvement of the Palestinian Authority and concrete progress towards a Palestinian state. "Arab states will not support reconstruction in Gaza or postwar plans unless Israel takes concrete steps towards the establishment of a Palestinian state," an Arab diplomat told the Financial Times.

The "humanitarian bubbles" concept is part of a broader three-tier postwar plan championed by the Israeli security establishment and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. This larger scheme envisions an international coalition providing diplomatic and financial support, with Palestinian Authority officials and local leaders managing a new regime and the "bubbles" being run by representatives from various stakeholders.

Plans are also underway to train a local Palestinian security force from within Gaza, with candidates being vetted by Majed Faraj, the Palestinian Authority's intelligence chief. However, resistance from top levels of the Netanyahu government has stalled progress on the comprehensive plan.

As Israel prepares to test this experimental model, many observers remain doubtful of its success. "If you try to experiment just on the lower level, it won't work. Nobody will put money into this without a long-term comprehensive plan. There are no buyers," the former senior Israeli official told the Financial Times.

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Over the past decade, for the first time in its history, Israel developed a strong diplomatic posture in the region and worldwide. Israel developed strategic ties with Arab states, and the states of the eastern Mediterranean. It has built close ties with the EU's Visegrád Group of central European states Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic as well as Austria and Italy. Israel upgraded its diplomatic and trade relations with the states of Africa and Central and South America, as well as with India, Japan and South Korea.

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Unfortunately, it is likely that all Israel achieved through painstaking effort may be lost after the new governing coalition led by Yair Lapid takes power next week. This is the case for three reasons.
First, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the author of Israel's diplomatic triumphs. They are predicated on his foreign policy vision that diplomatic ties are built on common interests even more than ideology and that Israel has much to offer the nations of the world.

There are many things that divide the members of the incoming governing coalition. But they agree on one thing – they all hate Netanyahu. So, the first reason Israel may soon abandon its diplomatic achievements is because Lapid and most of his partners in the coalition want to erase Netanyahu's accomplishments.

The second reason Israel's diplomatic position is likely to soon crash is that Lapid and Defense Minister Benny Gantz along with most of their partners do not share Netanyahu's diplomatic vision. Lapid is set to become foreign minister. Lapid, Gantz and the rest of the members of the incoming coalition are members of Israel's elite class. Israel's elite encompasses the political left, the media, the senior brass of the security establishment and the senior leadership of the foreign and justice ministries and right-wingers who prefer their company and plaudits to those of members of their own camp. Israel's elites, almost to the man believe Israel's diplomatic position is exclusively a function of its relations with the Beltway establishment. The closer Israel is to the American ruling class, the stronger it is internationally. The weaker Israel's relations with the American elite, the weaker its international posture.

The third reason Israel's decade of diplomatic achievements is likely to end in short order is that as America-obsessed elitists, Lapid, Gantz and their ilk don't understand the importance or potential of what Netanyahu has accomplished. They will not dedicate the necessary resources to maintain the ties he forged with the likes of Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz or Brazil's President Javier Bolsonaro, because they don't value those ties. So the ties will wither.

This then brings us to Washington, the only place that matters for the incoming cabinet ministers.
On Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken testified before House and Senate committees. His remarks showed that just as Lapid and his colleagues are set to tear down Netanyahu's legacy, US President Joe Biden, Blinken and their advisors have taken an industrial-sized eraser to Donald Trump's policies and achievements in the Middle East.

Take the Golan Heights. In 2019, Trump recognized Israel's sovereignty over the strategic enclave along its borders with Syria and Jordan. When asked whether the Biden administration also recognizes Israel's sovereignty, Blinken responded, "As a practical matter, Israel has control of the Golan Heights, irrespective of its legal status, and that will have to remain unless and until things get to a point where Syria and everything operating out of Syria no longer poses a threat to Israel, and we are not anywhere near that."
Or the shorter answer: No.

Then there's Iran. Democrat senators on Monday joined their Republican colleagues in demanding clarifications about the administration's nuclear diplomacy with Iran. The 2015 nuclear deal, to which the administration is committed placed temporary restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities and in exchange, gave Iran an open road to a military nuclear capability by 2030 and $150 billion in sanctions relief. Trump abandoned the deal in 2018 because Iran was breaching the deal's restrictions on its nuclear actions and reinstated US economic sanctions that the Obama administration lifted.

The Democrat and Republican lawmakers asked how canceling US economic sanctions on Iran would achieve the goal of limiting Iran's nuclear activities given that Tehran had been breaching the deal's limitations on its nuclear activities all along. They wanted to understand why Iran would agree to longer and stronger restrictions on its nuclear work in the future, as Blinken promises if the 2015 deal gives them an open path to the bomb. And they wanted to know if Blinken could guarantee that money from sanctions relief wouldn't end up in the coffers of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Blinken responded to all of the questions with a non-sequitur.

"Its [Iran's nuclear] program is galloping forward…The longer this goes on, the more the breakout time gets down…It's now down, by public reports, to a few months at best. And if this continues, it will get down to a matter of weeks."

Blinken's alarmist view wasn't a preamble to a call for military strikes against Iran's nuclear installations or even for an announcement of a new strategy of maximum economic pressure aimed at collapsing the regime.
To the contrary, Blinken said that in light of the dimensions and urgency of the threat, the US needs to immediately return to the 2015 deal, that is, give Iran billions of dollars in sanctions relief, to "put the nuclear problem in a box."

In plain English, Blinken said that the senators' concerns were irrelevant. The administration's policy goal is not to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power and a regional hegemon. The administration's goal is to be Iran's friend.

Just days before Blinken renounced US recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and said the goal of US policy towards Iran is to be the ayatollahs' friend even if that means letting Iran become a nuclear-armed regional hegemon, he met his "friend" Benny Gantz at the State Department. Clearly, the meeting made no impression on Blinken. If Gantz had hoped that "good chemistry" with the Biden crowd would make it possible for him to influence them, he was doubtlessly disappointed.

Sometime in 2014, Netanyahu realized that then-president Barack Obama and his team – which is now Biden's team – had no intention of preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed hegemonic power. He reacted to this realization by spending the last eight years developing an interest-based alliance with the Arab Gulf states who are also threatened by Iran.

The Trump administration welcomed this alliance. The Biden administration is so hostile to it that Biden opened an offensive against Saudi Arabia immediately after he entered office. The administration refuses to call the Abraham Accords by their name. And during Hamas' recent mini-war against Israel, the administration reportedly pressured Abraham Accords member states the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco to condemn Israel's efforts to destroy Hamas's missile capabilities. There is no doubt that Netanyahu spent long hours working to ensure that no such condemnations were made.

Facing the administration's visceral hostility to Israel's ties with the Sunni Arab states, Lapid, Gantz and their colleagues be far less likely to move heaven and earth to maintain them.

Then there's Jerusalem. On Monday, 16 Republican senators signed a letter to Biden expressing their opposition to the administration's plan to open a consulate in Jerusalem for the Palestinian Authority and to reopen the PLO's representative office in Washington. The explained that Trump closed the consulate as required by the Jerusalem Embassy Act. He closed the PLO office in DC because it operated in breach of the Promoting Justice and Security for Victims of Terrorism Act, otherwise known as the Taylor Force act. Opening a consulate in Jerusalem and reopening the PLO office in Washington would both be contrary to US law, they noted.

While the senators were doubtlessly right, the administration is committed to following through on its plan. The only way Biden and his advisors may feel compelled to change course is if their efforts are beset with trenchant opposition.

It won't get any from Lapid's coalition. Labor leader and incoming transportation minister Merav Michaeli said this week she intends to cancel 1.5 billion shekels ($462 million) now budgeted for improving roads in Judea and Samaria. Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas is ideologically aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood. Not only will he not oppose opening a consulate to the Palestinian Authority in Jerusalem, he might attend the opening of a US diplomatic mission in Israel's capital that is dedicated to serving Israel's Palestinian enemies.

One of Israel's greatest diplomatic assets in recent years has been the close ties it cultivated with EU member states led by nationalist leaders. Time after time, these leaders blocked efforts by the EU leadership in Brussels to condemn Israel.

The leader who has done the most to block EU condemnations of Israel has been Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

The most outspoken critic of ties between Jerusalem and Budapest has been Lapid. When Orbán came to Israel on an official visit, Lapid referred to event as a "national disgrace," because Orbán has expressed admiration for Hungary's wartime leader and Nazi collaborator Admiral Horthy. Like the heads of the US Jewish community with whom he is closely allied, Lapid is deeply hostile to European nationalist leaders despite their enthusiastic support for Israel. As foreign minister, Lapid is likely to harpoon Israel's ties to the Visegrád Group and so destroy Israel's ability to prevent EU condemnations of Israel.

What about Naftali Bennett? Where will the prime minister-designate be in all of this? Even in the unlikely event that Bennett will want to maintain Netanyahu's policies, he won't have the power to do so. Although in theory the government is supposed to give equal weight to its right and left-wing members, it is hard to see how this will manifest itself in practice. Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu party is still considered a right-wing party. But Lieberman has adopted the left's positions on nearly every issue. It is hard to imagine that he would side with Bennett on anything controversial, particularly if it involves maintaining Netanyahu's legacy. And even if Liberman sides with Bennett, they won't have the power to force Lapid to do anything he doesn't want to do. At best, they will be able to block him from doing some things that they don't want him to do.

If Bennett decides to act independently as prime minister on behalf of Jerusalem, or the Golan Heights, or blocking Iran from getting the bomb or anything at all that Lapid and the Left oppose, he will find himself raked over the coals by his coalition partners and the media. Without a political base, Bennett – like his fellow right-winger New Hope Party leader Gideon Sa'ar – will quickly be presented with two options. He can either adopt the ideological positions of the left, as Ehud Olmert, Tzipi Livni and Ariel Sharon did before him, or he can bring down the government and leave public life.

It has taken the Biden administration less than six months to unravel Trump's achievements in Israel and the wider Middle East. We can expect the incoming government to unravel Israel's diplomatic position on their first day in power.

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Like in a good Hollywood thriller, hints about the end appeared in the first scene.

"My first experiences was the trip with President Trump to Saudi Arabia, and from there to Israel at the start of the administration's term. As a Jew visiting Saudi Arabia for the first time, it was very exciting for me," US President Donald Trump's advisor on international affairs Avi Berkowitz recalls.

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"From Saudi Arabia, we flew straight to Israel – it was the first time that a flight like that had taken place publicly, even if it was a government flight. I remember taking pictures of the flight route from the plane. Already then, it showed us that things didn't have to stay the way they had been. The privilege I had later on of working on the Abraham Accords proved that," Berkowitz says.

Four years later, not only are Israeli flights crossing Saudi air space daily, but this week Berkowitz and his boss Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and advisor, inaugurated a new flight route between Israel and another Arab country – Morocco. On Monday, they met in Israel with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz, and Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi. The next day, they flew to Rabat with a high-ranking Israeli delegation led by National Security Council head Meir Ben-Shabbat. Ben-Shabbat, the son of Moroccan immigrants, greeting King Mohammad VI with a blessing reserved for kings: "Blessed is the One Who has given of His glory to human beings."

Later, Ben-Shabbat gave a moving speech in the local language. "Like me, many second and third-generation Moroccans in Israel remain loyal to their ancestors' heritage. Many traditions born here in Morocco are upheld in many homes in Israel. Moroccan Jewry has left its mark on Israeli society. Relations between us and the royal family are the base on which peace will be built," he said.

Ben-Shabbat repeated the speech in Hebrew. Kushner and Berkowitz, even if they didn't understand every word, didn't need any translation. It was another high point of the Middle East peace process.

Although no one said so explicitly, and even though – as Berkowitz put it – the peace process team is working "until the last second," there is a sense that something is coming to a close.

Berkowitz, only 32, and Kushner – architect of the regional peace and not yet 40 – have done in the last four years what hasn't happened in the last 26. Because they are Trump's people, the international peace camp can't allow a good word to be said about them, but Israel knew to give the team the respect it deserved.

Kushner participated in a tree-planting ceremony in the JNF's Grove of Nations in Jerusalem, and the prime minister was there. That same evening, Netanyahu presented him with a gift, a sort of framed citation of merit from the State of Israel for his part in the peace process. At the US Embassy in Jerusalem, Ambassador David Friedman hung a sign naming the embassy's huge courtyard after Kushner.

"We were a real estate developer and lawyer form New York," Friedman said at the modest ceremony.

"We found ourselves playing a key role in shaping US foreign policy in the Middle East. We might not have had diplomatic experience, but we had values and a shared goal," the ambassador said.

Kushner, Friedman, Berkowitz, and Friedman's advisor Aryeh Lightstone appeared calm and at ease, as if a burden had been removed. The atmosphere remained the same the next day on board El Al Flight 555 to Morocco.

The first flight to the Emirates

In the ceremonies marking the historic flight at Ben-Gurion International Airport and in Rabat, as well as in an interview to Israel Hayom, it appeared as if Kushner and Berkowitz wanted to leave a legacy and explain what they had done right, unlike so many peace brokers that came before them. Due to a busy schedule, Israel Hayom talked to them separately.

Q: Out of all the experiences, actions and decisions – including domestic issues -- you have led and dealt with since President Trump entered politics six years ago, which are the three most significant moments you will carry with you for the rest of your life? 

Kushner: "I've really enjoyed working on behalf of the American people these past four years. It's hard to specify three, but as a grouping the three projects I most enjoyed working on are the Abraham Accords, which saw four peace deals between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco; the USMCA trade deal which replaced NAFTA; and the First Step Act, which is the criminal justice reform legislation that has improved the lives of tens of thousands of American families."

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Berkowitz discusses the first flight to Israel from Saudi Arabia in 2017, the first flight from Israel to the United Arab Emirates in which he took part this past summer, and the flight that took them to Rabat this week.

Berkowitz: "I'm talking to you from Morocco, so I can't not think about everything that happened here. His Royal Highness King Mohammad VI is talking to Israel's national security council head, Meir Ben-Shabbat.

"From the administration's first day in office, leaders of Arab states were saying they wanted to make peace, but the difficulty was bringing what we heard behind the scenes out into the open. So hearing and seeing with my own eyes now what I knew for years was an amazing moment that will influence millions of Israelis. So even though my time in the administration is coming to an end, I feel good that the [different] peoples are coming closer and getting to know each other, that new kosher restaurants will open in Morocco, and it will continue long after I'm not in the administration anymore."

Q: And a moment not necessarily related to Israel or the Middle East?

Berkowitz: "I don't want to talk about a specific event, but rather about something that people usually don't get to see but which I was lucky enough to experience. My office at the White House is close to the door of the president's work room, so for four important years I had the privilege of seeing the president work. Being so close to the president of the US is a huge thing that taught me a lot and which I will always appreciate."

The battle to move the embassy

The Israeli Right is fingering Jared Kushner, who grew up in the New York Democratic elite, as a leftist who torpedoed plans to declare Israeli sovereignty in the Jordan Valley and Israeli settlements in Judea and Samaria. But that is a description that wrongs the man who anchored the Trump golden era of American-Israeli relations. A close inspection reveals that Kushner is neither Right nor Left, and that for him, Israel – and cold reason – comes before everything.

Speaking at the US Embassy, Kushner called the last four years "an unexpected chapter" in his life. With a sly smile, he turned to Friedman and told him, "People said that because you were 'too pro-Israeli,' your appointment was problematic. That wasn't a logical claim, either." And Kushner tries to throw off anything that is illogical.

Kushner said that the move to relocate the US Embassy to Jerusalem was "a big battle" the administration fought, noting that it sparked the opposition of many people, without a good reason other than fear of the unknown. However, he said, the move showed that in diplomacy – when the "right thing" is done strongly, when what is "accepted but illogical" is challenged, breakthroughs can be made "that other people thought were impossible."

Berkowitz: "The decision about Jerusalem was unusually important, and not only because of its essence. Before the decision was made, it was said that we – as people lacking experience – needed to know that it would send the region down a path of violence from which it wouldn't be able to return. But if we look at all the possibilities, and do it carefully with taking into account all the risks, important things can be done.

"It was an important lesson, because it showed the entire world that more things that are seen as impossible can be done, things that will influence the entire region. Like Jared told the prime minister this week. Recognizing Jerusalem [as Israel's capital] did lead to an explosion, but it was an explosion of peace," he adds.

Q: So, in your opinion, the president's recognition of Jerusalem led to peace, rather than war, like people warned you it would?

Berkowitz: "That's what I believe."

Kushner: "Recognizing Jerusalem and moving the embassy were a symbol of new American thinking. Together with Prime Minister Netanyahu, we addressed problems that were seen as unsolvable with free eyes. We recognized previous approaches, but we used a lot of common sense in facing the challenges. With creative thinking, we created opportunities, and every day you hear good news from the region – something that hasn't happened for many years."

Q: As people who came from outside politics and succeeded where others failed, what lesson have you learned in these past few years that you recommend that others adopt?

Kushner: "Experts were busy with theoretical questions rather than focusing on the question of what the people want, and whether there are common goals around which they could come together. To achieve peace, you need to create a situation in which all the people can enjoy security, economic growth, and freedom of religion. These things are obvious, but when the administration started out, even they were grounds for dispute.

"After more than four years, I feel that's the key to our success. We were the most pro-Israel administration that I can think of, but we were also the most pro-Arab/Muslim. We built trust by standing with our allies and partners. President Trump earned the trust of the people in the region and that gave us the credibility to advance our initiatives."

Berkowitz: "You learn a lot, but one of the most important lessons I'm taking with me is patience. When you start a job, there's a desire to do a lot in the time you have. But building relationships takes time, and demands patience. As time went by, I learned to feel comfortable with being uncomfortable, that is, that things I wanted to happen still hadn't happened, but would. And that's what it was. We were patient for three years, and in the fourth year we saw it bear fruit. I know that from the outside, it looks to people as if the peace deals appeared suddenly. The truth is that they took years of hard work and cooperation so that things would happen at the right time. And when I'm talking to you from Morocco, I can just feel it."

'Don't rush into a bad deal'

Q: The 'plan of the century' that the administration rolled out in January didn't materialize, and in effect you stopped promoting it. On the other hand, you brought us historic peace accords. What is the connection between the peace deals and the plan of the century? Would the deals exist without the Trump peace plan?

Kushner: "The plan is the most detailed and realistic opportunity to resolve the [Israeli-Palestinian] conflict in decades. In my opinion, it's the only viable plan that actually could improve the lives of the Palestinian people. I think in time people will review the plan and appreciate its merits. But it also was extremely helpful to advance the Abraham Accords. By putting out a fair plan that Israel was willing to negotiate on, a lot of leaders in the Arab world saw that it's not Israel that is unwilling to compromise for peace. That helped break the logjam and start substantive conversations on normalization with numerous Arab countries."

Berkowitz: Presenting the plan created momentum. Israel said it was willing to discuss it, and that's all we asked at that stage, whereas the Palestinians rejected it entirely and didn't even read what it said. Arab states saw that Israel was willing to promote peace but they were also upset because they were afraid that the sovereignty plan would go ahead. They were afraid that if there was American recognition of Israeli sovereignty in those areas, it would be a lot more complicated for them to begin normalization with Israel. So the Emirati ambassador, Yousef al-Otaiba, proposed postponing Israeli sovereignty in exchange for his country making peace with Israel. That proposal didn't convince everyone."

Q: As for the plan of the century, what exactly happened with the issue of sovereignty? First the administration – including the president – said it would be implemented immediately. Then you delayed the move. What happened that day?

Kushner: "Ultimately, it was something we were willing to do and are not against. We are very proud of the plan laid out by President Trump. That being said, the opportunity to normalize Israel with numerous Arab countries was too large to overlook. So we suspended that plan in favor of four peace deals, and have been in contact with additional Arab and Muslim countries."

Q: Conspiracy theorists might suggest that the entire sovereignty plan was designed to be canceled in order to lead to a breakthrough with the Emirates.

Berkowitz: "That's wrong. Our intentions [regarding Israeli sovereignty] were pure and still are. The president did enough to prove where his heart is when it comes to Israel."

Q: The Biden administration is currently formulating its policy towards Iran. What is the main advice you would give them on this subject?

Kushner: "The Middle East is in a much safer place than the one we inherited. That's because President Trump stood with our allies in the region. It's important to be patient when negotiating and not rush in towards a bad deal. America has a lot of priorities in the world, Iran will call if and when they are ready to do a real deal." 

Q: A word about American politics – is there any chance of changing the election results, as they stand now?

Berkowitz: "The matter is under legal review, I prefer not to comment." Kushner also declined to answer questions about the election results.

Q: To finish: Avi, you're still single, and I've heard that a lot of girls in Israel and the Jewish community in the US are waiting for you to free up on Jan. 21.

"If I finish my job on Jan. 21, the first thing I'll do will be to get some normalcy back in my life after four years. As far as shidduchim – are you a matchmaker?"

Q: Not a very good one.

"Well, I at least introduced my brother to his wife. I have a third of a place in heaven."

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