Israel is set to launch a contentious pilot program for governing postwar Gaza, according to a report by the Financial Times. The plan involves creating a series of "humanitarian enclaves" or "bubbles" designed to be free from Hamas control but has been met with widespread skepticism from those briefed on the details.
The experimental model is slated to begin soon in the northern Gaza neighborhoods of Atatra, Beit Hanoun, and Beit Lahia, as reported by the Financial Times, citing six sources familiar with the plan. Under this scheme, the Israeli military would channel aid from the nearby Erez crossing to vetted local Palestinians, who would distribute it and gradually assume civilian governance responsibilities. Israeli forces would initially ensure security in these areas.
However, the viability of this plan faces significant challenges. One person with knowledge of the proposal described it to the Financial Times as a "fantasy" project, citing violent opposition from Hamas, infighting within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, and lukewarm support from Arab states.
The initiative comes after months of international pressure on Netanyahu's government to formulate a credible alternative for postwar Gaza governance. However, two individuals briefed on the plan told the Financial Times that it appears to be a rehash of previous unsuccessful attempts.
"We already tried this in three different parts of central and north Gaza, including with local clans. They were all either beaten up or killed by Hamas," a former senior Israeli official familiar with postwar planning told the Financial Times.
Recent events underscore the dangers faced by those perceived as cooperating with Israel. Last week, deadly clashes erupted between Hamas security personnel and a prominent clan in central Gaza after Hamas executed the head of the Abu Amra family over alleged "receptivity" to Israeli overtures, according to a Gaza security source.
Hamas has vehemently rejected any external interference in Gaza's future. In a statement last Tuesday, the group declared it would "sever any hand of the [Israeli] occupation trying to tamper with the destiny and future of our people."
The plan faces additional hurdles due to Netanyahu's consistent rejection of any role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and his refusal to consider a pathway to Palestinian statehood. Despite this stance, Netanyahu and his senior aides continue to insist that Arab governments will play a major role in postwar arrangements.
Tzachi Hanegbi, Israel's national security advisor, called for "top-down leadership" from moderate Arab countries, along with the US, EU, and UN, to create an "alternative to Hamas" in combination with local Palestinian leadership.
However, Arab officials have rebuffed such proposals without the involvement of the Palestinian Authority and concrete progress towards a Palestinian state. "Arab states will not support reconstruction in Gaza or postwar plans unless Israel takes concrete steps towards the establishment of a Palestinian state," an Arab diplomat told the Financial Times.
The "humanitarian bubbles" concept is part of a broader three-tier postwar plan championed by the Israeli security establishment and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. This larger scheme envisions an international coalition providing diplomatic and financial support, with Palestinian Authority officials and local leaders managing a new regime and the "bubbles" being run by representatives from various stakeholders.
Plans are also underway to train a local Palestinian security force from within Gaza, with candidates being vetted by Majed Faraj, the Palestinian Authority's intelligence chief. However, resistance from top levels of the Netanyahu government has stalled progress on the comprehensive plan.
As Israel prepares to test this experimental model, many observers remain doubtful of its success. "If you try to experiment just on the lower level, it won't work. Nobody will put money into this without a long-term comprehensive plan. There are no buyers," the former senior Israeli official told the Financial Times.
