The understandings between Israel and Egypt on the gas deal do not include an Egyptian commitment to withdraw prohibited forces from the Sinai Peninsula. Israel Hayom has learned that accompanying understandings include dialogue on mechanisms to address Egyptian violations. The US has promised to promote handling of the issue, but there is no clear commitment to rectify the situation.

In Israel, officials believe that once gas deliveries begin and Egypt becomes energy-dependent on Israeli gas, this dependence will serve as leverage to deter Cairo from violating the peace treaty. They also argue that had Israel not supplied Egypt with gas, its southern neighbor would have turned to Qatar. According to information gathered in recent years, Egypt has introduced forces into Sinai far beyond what is permitted under the security annex of the peace treaty. It has also built tunnels deep inside Sinai for storing weapons and has suspiciously extended runways at airfields.

A security achievement

As far as is currently known, none of these problems has been fully resolved. The excess Egyptian forces will remain in Sinai, but Egypt has given commitments to limit their activity. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinted that Israel achieved several gains on the security front.

Despite the agreement, efforts to politically warm relations with Egypt have so far failed because of the war in Gaza, which has yet to end, and the tense atmosphere between the presidential palace in Cairo and the Prime Minister's Office in Jerusalem. The Americans examined the possibility of holding a summit meeting between Netanyahu and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, with US President Donald Trump participating, but the Egyptians rejected the idea.

Alongside these issues, the gas agreement enables Israel to achieve several strategic objectives. The first is Egypt's dependence on Israeli gas, which it uses both for domestic energy needs and for liquefaction and export to Europe, a vital source of foreign currency without which Egypt's economy would collapse. Egypt has gas fields of its own, but they are insufficient for these purposes. This dependence constitutes Israeli diplomatic and security leverage over its southern neighbor, though its impact is limited to major strategic issues, chiefly reducing or even eliminating concerns that Egypt might cancel its peace treaty with Israel.

An energy powerhouse?

Israel is consolidating its status as a regional power in the energy sector. It supplies gas to Egypt and also to Jordan, which uses it for a significant portion of its energy consumption. The agreement with Israel comes at Qatar's expense. Doha had been in talks with el-Sisi on building a new gas pipeline from Qatar's giant gas fields to Egypt. Laying such a pipeline would take years, and Egypt did not have the time to wait.

The agreement opens the door to additional energy projects in cooperation with Gulf states, projects that have been on the table for a long time and are expected to advance once an agreement is reached to bring Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords, likely not before elections and the formation of a new government in Israel.

In the energy sphere, under the agreement Israel will build an additional gas pipeline between Ramat Hovav and Nitzana, enabling further increases in exports to Egypt. The deal is expected to restart tenders for exploration of new gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean, and the Energy Ministry is set to renew preparations for those exploration bids.

Another reason for the delay in the agreement with Egypt was the Energy Ministry's demand that remaining reserves in existing fields be sufficient for Israeli domestic consumption and remain priced at the current low levels. According to the Energy Ministry, these demands were fully met.

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In a recorded statement, Netanyahu said the total value of the deal was estimated at about 112 billion shekels, roughly $34 billion, with 58 billion shekels, about $18 billion, expected to flow into state coffers.

At the same time as Netanyahu's announcement, NewMed Energy reported to the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange that it had received approval to export natural gas to Egypt. The authorization, granted by the Energy Ministry, allows the implementation of the export agreement signed in August, which is valued at approximately $35 billion.

As part of the approval, assurances were given that Israel would maintain attractive domestic natural gas prices and that gas supplies to the local market would be secured. The decision also paves the way for a final investment decision on the expansion of the Leviathan gas field, a move expected to significantly increase production capacity from the reservoir.

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According to him, "Honestly, this is a strange and thoughtless decision. If Netanyahu had agreed at the beginning to open the crossing according to the agreement, he would have achieved the following things – respect from the international community, embarrassment for Egypt, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians would have left, only a few hundred would have entered, and the US would have received this as a gift. This is a diplomatic failure."

Nevertheless, Israel views this as an appropriate sanction for the ongoing delay in delivering all deceased hostages.

That is, first a Palestinian police force would be deployed, then a technocratic government would be established, and the PA would return to managing the Strip, and only at the end would the disarmament process begin. According to this proposal, the weapons would pass to the custody of the Palestinian Authority, which would oversee their storage, and its role would be to prevent terrorists from accessing them. It has also been reported that Doha and Ankara are proposing an alternative to the PA: "international supervision."

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The landmark deal centers on gas supplies from the Leviathan gas field to Egypt through 2040, valued at $35 billion. Until now, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Energy Minister Eli Cohen, whose signatures are essential for ratifying the agreement, have delayed its ratification to resolve related complications. According to sources, the chances of the deal being signed are now growing.

On the political-security front, Israel has demanded that Egypt cease violations of the peace treaty, primarily the introduction of military forces into Sinai. Additionally, Egypt has constructed tunnels in the peninsula and extended airfield runways. According to information received by Israel Hayom, there is no Egyptian commitment to roll back forces west of the Suez Canal or to refrain from future violations.

Sources say there is a principled American statement that it guarantees the peace agreement, but no concrete Egyptian steps will accompany the implementation of the gas deal. This difficult problem will be resolved over time through diplomatic means, they say. They note that Egypt's dependence on gas supplies from Israel will position Israel in a much stronger position to make demands of Cairo.

The United States has pressed Israel heavily to advance the agreement, primarily because of Chevron's stake in the Leviathan partnership. Netanyahu and Cohen have resisted the pressure for an extended period, but now the agreement appears to be moving toward signing. One possibility is a meeting between Netanyahu and Egyptian President el-Sisi as part of the concessions for Israeli flexibility. However, there is no certainty that such a meeting will take place, nor is it clear whether it would occur in the United States as a trilateral summit with Trump or bilaterally in the region.

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Kushner told an Israeli official about his work against the backdrop of significant challenges in the existing framework around Hamas disarmament and which nation would risk deploying its troops in direct military combat with Hamas terrorists. No country has yet indicated willingness to take on this role.

Egypt has trained a 5,000-strong Gazan force with American and Israeli approval to fight Hamas, though their willingness to engage in combat remains uncertain. Furthermore, as we reported Tuesday, Kushner explained that western Gaza will not undergo rehabilitation until the Strip is demilitarized and Hamas surrenders its weapons. Kushner recognizes achieving these objectives presents formidable challenges, which explains his parallel work on alternatives.

Concurrently, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir told the recent Diplomatic-Security Cabinet meeting that the military is developing a contingency plan if American efforts fail. Zamir said the alternative approach will be briefed to ministers shortly.

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Hamas' military wing made clear early this week that fighter surrender or weapons abandonment remain off the table. Mohammad Nazzal, a senior Hamas official abroad, rejected exile outside Gaza and urged mediators to intervene.

Turkey wasted no time seizing this as another diplomatic opportunity, with sources saying it is "working to ensure safe passage for approximately 200 'Gazan civilians' trapped in Rafah tunnels" – as if 200 civilians simply got stuck in underground passages.

The deteriorating relationship between Ankara and Jerusalem, sparked by Turkish arrest warrants and Israel's response, combined with Israeli opposition to Turkish participation in Gaza's multinational force, will feature in Jared Kushner's discussions with Netanyahu, though not as the central focus.

Washington's primary objective is stabilizing the ceasefire. Meeting this goal requires advancing to stage two of the Trump plan and generating implementation momentum. With everyone occupied by processes and mechanisms, reality on the ground will shift toward non-combat, enabling Trump to pursue his broader diplomatic ambitions.

From Israel's perspective, however, the ceasefire is not the end goal. Particularly not now, after recovering living hostages and most deceased remains. Eliminating enemy capabilities and removing weapons from the territory remain Israel's core objectives, which cannot be sacrificed to ceasefire demands or satisfied through cosmetic arrangements.

Furthermore, Israel's approach in Gaza will directly impact Hezbollah arrangements (and the reverse), leaving no room for creative half-measures that sound good but deliver nothing.

Even without this consideration, regional discourse is already showing such formulas emerging. Examples include attempts to limit disarmament definitions to offensive weapons only – excluding tunnels, personal arms, and other capabilities from discussion. Another involves establishing an "administrative committee" for civilian Gaza governance, supposedly without Hamas participation, when the terror group already influences personnel selection and will clearly control such governance as the Strip's dominant force.

Returning to the besieged in Rafah – their number remains unclear. Media reports citing Israeli sources estimate 150 to 200. Foreign press mentioned lower figures, while Hamas websites simply stated the military wing withholds information due to sensitivity, describing them as "Qassam elite" facing high risk "while contending with medical supply shortages, electricity deficits, and the need to secure tunnels after extensive war damage."

Hamas spokesmen have raised no claims about broken commitments on this matter. They frame the connection to recovering IDF soldier Hadar Goldin's remains through humanitarian considerations and stability interests.

Given these circumstances, Israel possesses every advantage to transform this incident into a powerful symbol of its Hamas dismantlement commitment. Time favors us here, and provided our forces can block attacks from the besieged or other directions, no rush exists. Regardless, this event's conclusion must be decisive – mass surrender, detention or terrorist deaths. Images and publicity carry value. This is how regimes fall. Exile, as some mediators suggest, while not inherently rejected, should only acceptable as a post-surrender, post-arrest step, never as a replacement.

A Al-Resalah Hamas website editorial characterized the besieged issue as testing Hamas' capacity for post-war challenges. "It combines military, diplomatic, and humanitarian aspects and conveys an important message to the Palestinian public and the world regarding Hamas's ability to protect its people and manage humanitarian crises, in an extremely complex environment and under international supervision." This equally tests Israeli determination, providing further reason Israel cannot accept any solution Hamas would claim as an achievement.

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Article 7, the most critical from Israel's perspective, details for the first time the procedure for disarming Hamas and how this will be carried out. According to the text, the work will be done by Palestinian forces in coordination with Israel and Egypt, together with the ISF.

"The International Stabilization Force (ISF) will work with Israel and Egypt, without prejudice to existing agreements between them, alongside the recently trained and vetted Palestinian police force, to assist in securing border areas; to stabilize the security environment in Gaza by ensuring the disarmament of the Gaza Strip, including the destruction of military, terrorist and offensive infrastructure and preventing rehabilitation, as well as permanent disarmament of non-state armed groups," it said.

Article 6 of the resolution emphasizes that Palestinian governance will be established in Gaza but will not include national or political components. "Establishment of transitional governance, including oversight and support of a non-political technocratic Palestinian committee of qualified Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, under the auspices of the Arab League, responsible for the day-to-day operation of civil service and administration in Gaza."

The resolution dedicates several articles to international support for Gaza and even calls on world nations to support the Strip's rehabilitation financially. However, UNRWA is not included among the organizations meant to rehabilitate Gaza, and the resolution makes clear that any organization whose personnel cooperate with terrorism will be removed.

"In cooperation with the Peace Council, through cooperating organizations, including the United Nations, the International Committee of the Red Cross and Red Crescent... such assistance shall be used solely for peaceful purposes and not diverted by armed groups, with any organization found to have misused it deemed ineligible to assist, whether now or in the future," Article 3 states.

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The decisions were made at an emergency meeting on Wednesday about the drone threat on the Israel–Egypt border. Participants included Defense Ministry Director-General Maj. Gen. (res.) Amir Baram, Deputy Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Tamir Yadai and representatives of the Defense Ministry, the Israel Defense Forces, the Shin Bet security agency, the National Security Council and the Israel Police.

At the end of the meeting Katz instructed the IDF to convert the strip of land along the border into a restricted military zone and to adjust rules of engagement to attack any unauthorized element who enters the area, in order to stop drone operators and other smuggling operations.

It was also agreed that DDR&D at the Defense Ministry will promote technological solutions in cooperation with the Israeli Air Force, and that the National Security Council will assist on issues including mandatory licensing and legislative amendments addressing the use, purchase and possession of drones.

Katz said, "I convened you here to declare war on the smuggling of drones on the Israel–Egypt border. In war, as in war, the current situation is dangerous to the state's security and cannot continue. The smuggling of weapons by drones is part of the war in Gaza and is intended to arm our enemies. All measures must be taken to stop it.

"As we created deterrence with Hezbollah in Lebanon regarding unmanned aerial systems and attacks on communities, here too we must create deterrence and make clear to those involved in smuggling that the rules of the game are changing. They will pay a very heavy price if they do not stop."

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American officials explained to Arab state representatives that if they don't accept the proposal the Trump administration is pushing, the alternative would be Israel restarting its Gaza war. "Choose between this text and [hard right minister] Bezalel Smotrich," officials said. Still, sources familiar with the details believe there may be minor adjustments to the resolution language.

The International Stabilization Force (ISF) is intended to serve as Gaza's sole military force under the Trump plan, tasked with dismantling terror infrastructure and demilitarizing the Strip. The comprehensive plan for ending the Gaza conflict rests on the "The Trump Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity," more commonly known as the "20-point plan."

The plan centers on rehabilitating the Gaza Strip and securing regional stability, while attempting to build broad international backing for a new civilian and security apparatus to be created in the Strip.

Israel Hayom published the key elements of the anticipated resolution and the projected Security Council vote timing, roughly a week and a half to two weeks away. Currently, despite agreeing to the UN Security Council resolution, most Arab nations expected to contribute soldiers to the multinational force remain unwilling to do so.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are making Hamas disarmament a precondition before deploying soldiers, while Egypt fears confrontations with Hamas operatives on one hand and the IDF on the other. Which leaves Israel with the Azeris and the Indonesians.

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The UN Security Council has advanced preparations for a resolution on Gaza's future implementing President Donald Trump's comprehensive peace framework, responding to Indonesian and Azerbaijani demands for Security Council authorization before deploying troops as the primary component of an international stabilization force in the Strip.

The ISF is designed to be the sole military force in Gaza under Trump's framework, with responsibility for dismantling terror infrastructure and demilitarizing the Strip.

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