According to the official, Tehran faces only difficult choices because it risks a harsh Israeli counterattack and simply cannot absorb more military losses like those sustained during the 12-Day War. The official noted that despite this restraint, some voices within Iran still believe a response to Israel's actions is necessary, perhaps executed by the Houthis or through a terrorist attack targeting Jewish or Israeli interests in Europe or Latin America.

This cautious assessment stands in contrast to the combative statements coming from Tehran, even before the death of Hezbollah Chief of Staff Haytham 'Ali Tabataba'i, and earlier reports that Iran had largely replenished the surface-to-surface missile stockpile lost during Operation Rising Lion. For example, a report in The New York Times disclosed that Iran is enhancing its air defense network and planning for a massive launch capability of up to 2,000 simultaneous missiles should another conflict erupt. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps previously published a statement declaring, "The Axis of Resistance and Hezbollah have the right to respond at the appropriate time, and it will be a painful blow".

Esmaeil Baghaei, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, stated that Israel's behavior is worsening regional security and will result in serious consequences. Though Iran is working to rebuild its air defense capabilities – which were nearly destroyed in the war – and reportedly received aid from China, Israeli estimates suggest this will not significantly challenge Israel's absolute control of Iranian airspace.

The critical decision regarding a Hezbollah response rests with the ayatollahs in Tehran, not Beirut. Hezbollah's standing has suffered significantly following the losses incurred during the pager operation and the elimination of its leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah, who ranks second only to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran's hesitation is driven by multiple factors : First, since Israel delivered severe blows to Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran itself, another conflict of that magnitude is unacceptable. Second, the international environment, marked by full US support and partial European support for Israel, eliminates the possibility of helpful diplomatic maneuvers. Third, Iran is experiencing a particularly dire economic and infrastructural crisis, characterized by rampant inflation, currency collapse, a severe fuel shortage, frequent power outages, and a water crisis. In fact, the severity of the water crisis led President Masoud Pezeshkian to propose evacuating Tehran and relocating to a temporary capital.

Tehran is currently in its sixth consecutive drought year and recorded its driest autumn of the century, reporting "zero drops of rain". After the first 55 days of the current water year, water reserves had hit a 60-year low.

Contacted via social media, S., a Tehran resident, described having running water for only a few hours each day, dangerously poor water quality causing widespread diseases and infections, and mineral water sold at exorbitant prices in stores and markets. The resident added that while authorities have discussed bringing in water tankers from the north, no substantial action has been taken.

Northern Iran is simultaneously battling a major ecological catastrophe – a fire that has been burning for weeks in the Hyrcanian Forests, a "World Heritage Site" and the world's oldest living ecosystem. Iranian forestry experts are placing blame on the government, alleging negligence and intentional, malicious damage to the forest lands. The fire has resulted in large clouds of smoke, ash, and soot, which are causing severe air pollution.

This compounding crisis has given rise to the idea of Iran's "quiet disintegration" as a functional state. Sogand Fakheri, an Iran Desk analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, said that "quiet disintegration" is a concept frequently discussed in Iranian domestic media.

"However, it seems the disintegration is not quiet, the government is not functioning, and the repeated focus on war propaganda and the 12-Day War either ignores or at least belittles the situation in the country," she elaborated, adding, "The fires and the funds being wasted in the wrong places also hurt the citizens' standard of living and even put them in real danger." As economic, social, and environmental hardships continue to mount, internal reports of local distress and protests surface from Iran, but these are often suppressed from the wider public due to media censorship and restrictions. This raises the question of whether the institutional and social decay is happening "quietly" because it is not being fully expressed – or because parts of the system are struggling to recognize it in real-time.

Sagiv Asulin, a senior researcher at the JCFA and an Iran expert, accounted for the contrast between the aggressive rhetoric and Iran's domestic paralysis : "The Iranians are the world champions in word games, negotiation, and haggling in the Middle Eastern and global bazaar, so there is a big difference between what they say and what will materialize. They are willing to warm the atmosphere with belligerent statements, but in their current condition, they might play a game on the edge, but nothing beyond that, and therefore the answer to the question of whether they will initiate an actual attack – is almost certainly no".

Asulin confirmed that Iran is working hard to rebuild its air defense and missile stockpiles because missiles are the most effective weapons they have, especially since the nuclear project was severely damaged. The researcher added that Iran recognizes this as Israel's soft underbelly and plans to reinforce it for the next conflict.

Ultimately, both Asulin and the senior official agree that Iran intends to delay the next conflict for as long as possible to allow itself time to recover, wait for more favorable conditions, and improve its readiness.

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The US government previously offered a $5 million reward for information on him. This commander headed the organization's special forces in Syria and Yemen. While in this role, he provided assistance to pro-Iranian militias and the Houthis.

Haytham 'Ali Tabataba'i was designated an international terrorist with a special classification as early as 2016. The US government's website stated, "Tabataba'i's actions in Syria and Yemen are part of a larger Hizballah effort to provide training, materiel, and personnel in support of its destabilizing regional activities."

In recently published footage from the funeral of the commander of the Aziz Unit in Beirut, a Hezbollah operative was seen whose face bore a resemblance to the identity of Tabataba'i. That same operative wore the emblem of the Radwan Elite Force.

Haytham Ali Tabatabai is described as "Hezbollah's chief of staff." During the war on the northern front, the previous commanders considered "chiefs of staff" – Fouad Shukr and Ibrahim Aqil – were assassinated. Another senior commander eliminated along with the organization's secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, was Ali Karaki. Among the senior figures who have survived in the organization thus far is the current secretary general, Naim Qassem, a bland, charisma-less figure. Another senior official is Talal Hamiyah, who leads Unit 910. This unit is responsible for overseas terrorist activities, including attacks against Western targets. In addition to them, Mohammad Haydar, who is considered a "military advisor" in the terror organization and whose status also rose following the series of eliminations, can be mentioned.

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He is a criminal who was loyal to Hezbollah and operated inside Syria during the civil war years. In Lebanon, people also say he maintained relationships with several members of the Assad family before it was ousted from power a year ago.

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Qaani added that senior Hamas leaders abroad were also not informed of the timing. "Neither we, nor Hassan Nasrallah, nor Hamas' top leadership knew the exact timing of the operation (October 7 attack). When the operation in Gaza was announced, Haniyeh was on his way to the airport to fly to Iraq and only then received the message."

Qaani revealed that on October 7 he entered Lebanon, where he was considering a discussion with Nasrallah on the next steps. "The martyr Nasrallah, who understood Lebanon's social conditions, coordinated the start of the operation with precise timing and decided to begin it at night when the southern area (of Lebanon) would be quieter."

"The greatest crime of all"

Regarding Nasrallah's elimination on September 27, 2024, Qaani said: "After a series of crimes, from the deaths of commanders to the pager explosions, came the greatest crime of all – the death of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah."

According to Qaani, "In this attack, in addition to heavy bombs, chemicals were also used (apparently referring to gases released in the underground tunnel blast that suffocated those inside). The main cause of Sayyed Hassan's death was not only the explosion. The chemicals used in the bombs played a role in his death."

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It's almost possible to forget, but the thought of bombing Hezbollah's stronghold in those days raised grave concerns about precision missile launches into the heart of Tel Aviv. Israel periodically published catastrophic scenarios, each more terrifying than the last. Hezbollah indeed tried to respond to the elimination with hundreds of Katyushas and drones, but failed the results test. After several preventive attacks and IDF disruptions, Nasrallah began losing his balance. More importantly, the web of fear he had woven through years of psychological warfare and countless speeches gradually unraveled until it was finally removed.

Both Lebanese and Israelis were exposed step by step to an extraordinary intelligence effort that lasted approximately 20 years and penetrated the very heart of the Shiite terror movement. Nasrallah was horrified to discover day by day that his organization was exposed in the open. Every meeting of commanders subordinate to him, every bunker, every missile launcher, every communication device, were like clay in the potter's hands for the security establishment. About a month and a half after Shukr's elimination, Lebanon trembled. Thousands of pagers exploded on the bodies of Hezbollah terrorists, killing hundreds of them and leaving many disabled – a humiliation unprecedented in the history of the modern Middle East. Senior Hezbollah officials admitted that Nasrallah had collapsed mentally. "It was the end of the world for him," said Wafiq Safa, head of the Liaison Unit. Not much time passed before the symbol of the Iranian axis was eliminated itself.

Warning of "disaster"

A year later, Hezbollah faces a historic crisis. For example, a fund belonging to it recently announced to the families of killed terrorists that it would stop subsidizing tuition for their children. This involves tens of millions of dollars annually. The attack on branches of its financial arm – "Al-Qard Al-Hassan" – combined with a long series of American sanctions, dealt a death blow to its economic activity. Even in Dahiyeh, Beirut, the unshakeable stronghold, the terror movement struggles to pay contractors to complete renovation work on destroyed buildings.

The Lebanese newspaper Sawat Beirut described the desperate situation this week. "Hezbollah faces a severe and unprecedented economic crisis that could change its course and affect Lebanon," it reported. "In a desperate attempt to reduce expenses, Hezbollah now adopts a comprehensive austerity policy that affects all areas."

According to Lebanese sources, the financial crisis has already crossed all red lines. Salaries for terrorists are no longer guaranteed in full, compensation payments are unusually delayed, and families of the dead do not receive benefits they previously enjoyed, such as medical treatments, education fees, and social assistance. Soon, the period designated for paying rent for Shiite families forced to evacuate their homes due to the war will end. From the start, rent subsidies were defined for one year only. Hezbollah's leadership did not estimate that the rehabilitation process would take so long.

Furthermore, financial advisors within the organization warned leadership of "disaster" if immediate funding isn't secured. According to these advisors, it's already particularly difficult to receive funds from Iran, which has significantly reduced Hezbollah's budget. This situation worsens due to "logistical and security complications" that delay money transfers and exacerbate the financial crisis. This results from two dramatic changes in the past year stemming from Hezbollah's defeat. First, the collapse of Assad's regime in Syria and the rise of Islamist rule that is hostile to Hezbollah. A government fighting weapons and drug smuggling, one of the organization's funding sources. Second, the strengthening of Lebanese leaders in Beirut. These ordered tightened oversight of Iranian money smuggling attempts through the airport, as a result of American pressure.

Returning the weapons

Sawat Beirut revealed that Hezbollah's money smuggling methods are failing to cover the growing deficit in the budget. It was also reported that the financial crisis directly affects the logistical and military rehabilitation process and may weaken the terror organization in the long term. Beyond that, within the inner circle, demands are growing for Naim Qassem, Nasrallah's charisma-lacking successor, to find immediate solutions to the crises.

Adding to this headache is political and diplomatic pressure from the US and the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah. Although Naim Qassem firmly refused to surrender weapons and Beirut still stammers regarding direct confrontation with him, the Americans and Gulf states present the Lebanese leadership with a determined equation – concentrating weapons in state hands in exchange for aid or worsening the economic crisis. These days, Qassem set himself one goal – to survive, at any cost. Still, many of his enemies from within identify the weakness. Israel is already exploiting it and eliminating its terrorists almost daily despite the ceasefire.

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The archive photograph published in Iran on Thursday, showing Ali Shadmani and Hassan Nasrallah together, reveals another chapter in this relationship – a chapter that apparently will never return.

According to reports from Iran, Shadmani was eliminated during the war after being appointed to replace Gholam Reza Rashid, who was killed in Israel's opening strike. Shadmani headed the Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters, the body responsible for defining reference threats, directing force building, and assessing readiness in routine times. During emergencies, it managed the entire campaign under direct subordination to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. News of his death was published in Iran only yesterday, after reports indicated he was severely wounded in a targeted attack about a week earlier and never recovered.

Shadmani managed a long and distinguished military career. He joined the Revolutionary Guards upon their establishment in 1979, and during the Iran-Iraq War, commanded the Ansar al-Hussein Division. However, the photograph with Hassan Nasrallah reveals how central his role was during the critical period between 2005 and 2016.

Between 2005 and 2012, he held a senior position in the operations division of the General Staff of Iran's Armed Forces, a period that included the Second Lebanon War in 2006. Between 2012 and 2016, he headed the entire division, and subsequently served as deputy coordinator of Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters until he was appointed the headquarters' head.

In this role, Shadmani was responsible for integrating all of Iran's operational plans across different theaters. Therefore, the revelation of a meeting between him and Hassan Nasrallah now exposes another layer in the deep strategic relationship between Tehran and Hezbollah. While Hassan Nasrallah held regular meetings with Quds Force commanders, Khamenei's advisors, and Iran's foreign ministers, it turns out he also met with senior officials in the Iranian chief of staff's operations division. This connection testifies to his high standing in the Iranian regime's decision-making process and Tehran's operational plans.

Hassan Nasrallah served as a strategic link not only for Hezbollah but also for the Iranian regime and managing its relations with Hezbollah. His elimination marked a deep break, both for Tehran and for Hezbollah, which chose to adopt an observer position in the current war. In doing so, the organization made a historic decision that sharply contradicts Hassan Nasrallah's past statements, according to which Hezbollah would enter the campaign alongside Iran if it were attacked.

The Iranian regime will now need to begin a complex process of rehabilitation and reconstruction, not only of the military command apparatus but also of cooperation with Hezbollah. The absence of Shadmani and other senior officials who were eliminated, including Saeed Izadi, head of the Palestinian branch in Quds Force (who, according to reports, was recently also responsible for facilitating Iranian aid to Hezbollah), and Behnam Shahriari, head of the smuggling unit in Quds Force, poses a real challenge. Added to this are also the elimination of Quds Force commander in Lebanon and Syria, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and his replacement, Abbas Nilforoushan.

In such a situation, rehabilitating the Iran-Hezbollah axis seems like a particularly challenging task, certainly given the determination Israel demonstrates in preventing any attempt to strengthen Hezbollah's capabilities in the foreseeable future.

The author is an Iran, Hezbollah and Shiite militias researcher at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy.

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A Sunday evening vigil in New York City's Washington Square Park intended to honor Hassan Nasrallah revealed a striking disconnect between the event's purpose and attendees' understanding of the deceased Hezbollah leader, reports The Free Press.

While approximately 100 people gathered at the event organized by collegiate chapters of Students for Justice in Palestine, many participants appeared unfamiliar with Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike on September 27.

The event, which featured a table decorated with a Hezbollah flag and photos of Nasrallah, quickly transformed from a somber vigil into an energetic protest complete with air horns and chants of "Free Palestine."

One attendee who declined to provide their name claimed to know Nasrallah, describing him as "a hero" while emphasizing they were "not a Hezbollah member." Another participant, identified only as Haniya, expressed support for various organizations while demonstrating limited knowledge of the vigil's central figure.

In WSP, I asked a masked protestor why they're gathered, who they are gathered for, and what they are memorializing.

I was met with a blank stare.

Nasrallah was the leader of Hezbollah, a US designated terrorist organization. Hezbollah is responsible for killing hundreds of… pic.twitter.com/LbBR28FsFD

— Bella Ingber (@bellaingber123) February 24, 2025

 Julia, a Jewish attendee wearing a keffiyeh, offered perspectives on recent events in Gaza, including theories about the deaths of the Bibas children, whose bodies were recently released as part of a hostage agreement. "I one hundred percent believe the Hamas version, that they died under Israeli bombing. They were killed by Netanyahu," she said. She added that she found Hamas' parade of coffins before the public to be "very dignified. Palestinians care about the dead. Maybe they're cheering that the family is going back."

A protester identified as Chucky, wearing a Palestinian flag and equipped with a body camera, admitted his limited knowledge about the organization, telling reporters, "I'm not going to speak on Nasrallah's history. You can do your own research," then later, "I don't know much about Hezbollah."

NOW: "Intifada Intifada!" chant protesters during a vigil for Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Former secretary-general of Hezbollah, while gathering at Washington Square Park NYC.

Video by @peterhvideo @FreedomNTV Desk@freedomnews.tv to license pic.twitter.com/Wzs4fUxrAJ

— Oliya Scootercaster (@ScooterCasterNY) February 23, 2025

 The gathering drew counterprotesters separated by police barricades. Greenwich Village resident Evette Stark, who attended past demonstrations in the park including civil rights marches, expressed concern over this "woke bullshit." "Anybody who's supporting an organization like that needs to have their head examined," Stark told The Free Press.

The event highlighted a broader pattern of participants expressing strong support for causes while demonstrating limited understanding of key figures and historical context. The vigil's advertised purpose of remembrance quickly gave way to broader protest activities, with many attendees focusing on general political messages rather than the stated memorial purpose.

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Muhammad Mahdi Nasrallah, one of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah's sons, made a notable announcement over the weekend, declaring his intention to distance himself from the organization's terrorist activities and political sphere, emphasizing instead his commitment to "focus on religious studies."

This declaration follows his recent elevation in religious rank, marked by a significant ceremony in Iran where Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei personally bestowed upon him his father's turban.

In a recorded statement, Muhammad Mahdi reflected on his father's characteristics – the leader of the terrorist organization in Lebanon who was eliminated by Israel in September – noting that being a "realistic person" was among his finest qualities.

"Recently, I've observed that some hold high expectations for me," he elaborated. "I've chosen to address these expectations by maintaining a realistic perspective. My position is that of a student, and my obligation, as I see it, is to fulfill what the honorable master requested – to devote myself entirely to the pursuit of knowledge."

The young Nasrallah continued, expressing his ongoing commitment to Shiite Islamic seminary studies: "God willing, I shall serve in areas aligned with my academic pursuits – in knowledge dissemination, messaging, and education. This is my role, working alongside media professionals and messengers to fill the void left by the honorable master. Regarding other domains, such as politics and military affairs, these are entrusted to specialists who continue to develop their capabilities and fulfill their missions. May Allah grant us success in these endeavors."

Video: Hassan Nasrallah's son declares his intention to distance himself from the organization's terrorist activities

It's worth noting that Hezbollah maintains diverse operational branches beyond its direct terrorist activities. The organization encompasses religious and educational institutions, an extensive welfare network, and a council of religious scholars. Therefore, while Muhammad Mahdi may distance himself from military operations or parliamentary involvement, this doesn't preclude his potential influence in other significant sectors of Hezbollah's structure.

As previously noted, Mahdi recently traveled to the city of Qom to receive his black turban, symbolizing his elevated status as a Shiite cleric. Significantly, within his religious tradition, the boundaries between political and religious authority remain notably fluid. His public stance may represent a strategic move to minimize potential threats.

During the turban ceremony, he shared on his Instagram account: "May Allah grant me success in fulfilling my promise to my father, made before his pure body – to complete the path of knowledge and learning, following the approach of Ahl al-Bayt (Prophet Muhammad's family members and legitimate heirs according to Shiite Islam)."

Hassan Nasrallah's family included five children: Hadi, Zeinab, Muhammad Jawad, Muhammad Mahdi, and Muhammad Ali. In September 1997, his eldest son, Hadi Nasrallah, was killed during an IDF operation in southern Lebanon. His death was confirmed following an encounter with Hezbollah terrorists. Subsequently, Hadi's remains were exchanged for those of Shayetet 13 warrior Itamar Ilya, who died in a Hezbollah ambush along with 15 more commanders. 

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Walmart, the world's largest retail corporation, is at the center of controversy after selling T-shirts featuring former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. One of the Sinwar T-shirts is called the "Yayha Sinwar We Will Win Or Die Shirt." The retail giant continues to stock other politically controversial merchandise.

Walmart shoppers were horrified to find shirts glorifying Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar while online shopping. @Walmart, are you aware you're selling apparel celebrating terrorism and violence against Jews?

This is a outrageous—remove them immediately. pic.twitter.com/po8BBLLafc

— StopAntisemitism (@StopAntisemites) December 24, 2024

The company's current inventory includes antisemitic books discussing the "Zionist lobby," which the texts claim pushed for Israel's establishment through what they characterize as "flagrant violations of international law" and "denial of Palestinian rights."

Another available title, "Decolonizing Palestine," examines what its summary presents as a liberation struggle against what it terms a "colonial settler state." The book's description states, "Despite expert predictions, Hamas continued armed resistance to Israeli colonial settler rule."

"Becoming Pro-Palestinian" is another title found on their website. Another book, "Soldiering Under Occupation," attempts to demonstrate how various "numbing processes" allegedly affected IDF soldiers' moral conduct.

Walmart has since removed the apparel celebrating terrorism from its website, yet the books remain.

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The ring was sold for $16,000, with the proceeds to be transferred to the Lebanese people. The Iranian news agency IRNA reported in October that Iran's Ofogh TV network intended to sell Nasrallah's ring at a public auction, with the revenues meant to "go to the Lebanese people." Mojtaba Rahmandoost, a member of Iran's Shura Council, said he received the ring as a gift from Nasrallah in February 2014 and would put it up for public auction.

Wearing rings is an ancient custom in Shiite Islam. The ring is usually worn on the right hand. Among the pro-Iran axis, the rings worn by Qassem Soleimani, slain commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi are particularly well-known.

Soleimani was killed in January 2020. The ring was used to identify his body after the US strike. According to various reports, Raisi's body was also identified by the ring on his hand after his helicopter crashed. Similar rings are worn by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and senior members of pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. The ring apparently symbolizes, among other things, the connection between members of the axis.

A Lebanese cleric told the BBC's Arabic network that the ring is linked to several Islamic and Arab traditions. However, he notes that a person must not be attached to a stone out of a belief that it can harm or benefit them.

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