The shadow of Iran's three-decade ruler, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, looms over the military disasters that have befallen the Islamic Republic during the opening week of Operation Rising Lion. The supreme leader's failure to adequately anticipate and prepare for Israel's devastating assault, which eliminated the regime's top military brass, reflects his continued refusal to make meaningful concessions in negotiations with the United States and US President Donald Trump.
Reports from Western media sources suggest Khamenei's authority has suffered significant damage, with some indicating he has delegated portions of his power to Revolutionary Guards commanders. Nevertheless, the ultimate choice between capitulating to Trump's demands or engaging in a protracted war of attrition remains solely in Khamenei's hands. Understanding the man behind these critical decisions may provide insight into Iran's future trajectory.
Born in 1939 in Mashad, Ali Khamenei emerged as the second child in a family of eight, raised by an impoverished Shiite cleric from rural Iran. His formative years were devoted to religious education, eventually becoming a disciple of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the architect of Iran's Islamic Revolution. Though Khamenei never achieved prominence within Iran's religious establishment, the 1979 revolution elevated him to Khomeini's inner circle, culminating in his election as the Islamic Republic's president in 1981.
Dr. Thamar Eilam Gindin, an Iran specialist at the University of Haifa's Ezri Center, explained Khamenei's ascent. "Khamenei excelled at one particular skill – surviving Khomeini's relentless purges. Khomeini's suspicious and paranoid nature meant that Khamenei found himself rising to the top almost by default," she noted. "He lacked religious gravitas and never even attained ayatollah status during this period."
Tears of blood
Khomeini's death in 1989 dramatically altered Iran's political landscape. "Khamenei was hardly the frontrunner to succeed the revolutionary leader," Dr. Eilam Gindin observed. "Khomeini's son, widely regarded as the natural heir, declined the position. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, then Iran's president, championed Khamenei's candidacy, believing he could manipulate this seemingly weak figure. This calculation proved disastrously wrong, a fact Rafsanjani later acknowledged."
To qualify for supreme leadership, Khamenei received a hasty promotion to ayatollah status in 1989. "The selection committee abandoned traditional requirements, including the expectation that candidates publish religious scholarship. They rationalized this by claiming Khamenei faithfully adhered to Khomeini's teachings," Eilam Gindin explained. "In a now-infamous speech before his selection, Khamenei declared that 'the nation that chooses me to lead it will weep tears of blood.' While intended as false humility, this prophecy appears remarkably prescient today."
Military and Revolutionary Guard leaders initially viewed Khamenei as manageable, but he swiftly consolidated power and systematically dismantled competing authority centers. His methods included electoral manipulation, elimination of oversight bodies, and removal of key ministries from elected control. "Khamenei operates a pure dictatorship disguised behind democratic theater," Dr. Eilam Gindin assessed. "He maintains facades of competitive elections and institutional balance while exercising absolute behind-the-scenes control." Revolutionary Guard forces and their Basij auxiliaries routinely suppressed protests against manipulated election outcomes.
While publicly opposing nuclear weapons development, Khamenei privately directed Iran's nuclear program toward weapons capability. This strategic gamble may represent his career's gravest miscalculation. With Israel now conducting unrestricted operations against Iranian nuclear infrastructure, supported by American intelligence, Khamenei confronts a menu of unappealing options.
"Two paths remain available to Khamenei," Dr. Eilam Gindin analyzed. "He can abandon his pride and negotiate with the United States, or he can choose confrontation and extended warfare, risking both his regime and his life." However, she doubts the supreme leader will accept a compromise. "Honor holds supreme value for Khamenei. He would rather drag the entire regime into destruction than surrender his dignity."
