The escalating effectiveness of Iranian strikes emerged through a comprehensive analysis of missile defense data compiled by The Wall Street Journal, drawing from think tanks based in Israel and Washington, DC Officials familiar with the conflict, according to The Wall Street Journal, indicated that Iran's evolving strategy involved launching more advanced, longer-range missiles from diverse locations deep within Iranian territory, fundamentally altering the tactical landscape of the confrontation.

Tehran's methodical approach to overcoming Israeli defenses involved significant changes in attack timing and geographic targeting patterns, sources told The Wall Street Journal. Rather than maintaining consistent overnight barrages, Iranian forces shifted to smaller daylight waves launched from a broader array of positions, effectively testing different vulnerabilities in Israel's defensive grid.

The Iranian offensive strategy specifically targeted Israel's multilayered defense system, which includes the Arrow 3 interceptors for exo-atmospheric threats, Arrow 2 for atmospheric interception, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) systems, David's Sling for medium-range threats, and the Iron Dome for short-range projectiles. Each layer operates at different altitudes and ranges, creating what missile defense experts consider among the world's most comprehensive protective networks.

Mora Deitch, head of the Data Analytics Center at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, provided crucial data showing that Iran's most successful attacks occurred on June 22, when 10 out of 27 missiles successfully struck Israeli territory. This represented a significant escalation from earlier phases of the conflict, when Iranian penetration rates remained considerably lower.

"Any missile system, even a sophisticated one like Israel's, will leak eventually," Raphael Cohen, a senior political scientist at Rand, explained to The Wall Street Journal. "The key for any air-defense system is less that you build a perfect system with any one layer and more the cumulative effect."

The Iranian tactical evolution included deployment of hypersonic Fattah-1 missiles, which descend at sharp angles from outside Earth's atmosphere at speeds exceeding 10 times the speed of sound. These advanced weapons feature detachable warheads capable of maneuvering to avoid interceptors, challenging only Israel's most sophisticated systems like Arrow 3 and David's Sling, which can adjust course mid-flight for tracking.

Iranian forces demonstrated increasing sophistication by varying firing patterns, targeting geographically dispersed cities, and altering intervals between attacks. Yehoshua Kalisky, a missile-defense expert at the Institute for National Security Studies, noted that "They tried to separate the Israeli defense system," describing how Tehran's strategy aimed to overwhelm defensive capabilities through tactical dispersion.

Analysis of Israeli public statements revealed declining interception rates throughout the conflict. Officials initially claimed 90% to 95% interception rates during active hostilities, but post-ceasefire assessments acknowledged an overall 86% success rate, according to The Wall Street Journal's review of military communications.

The Jewish Institute for National Security of America provided data showing that Iran's breakthrough rate doubled between the conflict's first and second halves. Ari Cicurel, associate director of foreign policy at the institute, concluded that Iran successfully adapted "how, when and what" it was firing, demonstrating systematic learning and tactical evolution.

Israel's successful targeting of Iranian missile launchers prevented Tehran from deploying older, less accurate short-range systems, but this defensive success paradoxically forced Iran to utilize more advanced long-range weapons earlier in the conflict. This escalation brought hypersonic and precision-guided systems into play sooner than might have occurred under different circumstances.

The conflict's implications extend beyond the immediate participants, particularly regarding President Donald Trump's executive order establishing the $175 billion Golden Dome system for American missile defense. Originally named after Israel's Iron Dome, this planned network faces the challenge of protecting significantly larger territory than Israel's compact geography.

Ukraine's ongoing conflict offers a different model for territorial defense, but its air protection relies on a patchwork of American, European, and domestic technologies rather than Israel's integrated approach. Cohen emphasized that Israel's unified system provides a better comparison for what the United States seeks to develop.

Declining interceptor availability and high costs likely influenced Israeli targeting decisions as the conflict progressed, with defense officials conserving resources by prioritizing threats posing the greatest danger. This economic factor adds another dimension to the strategic calculus facing nations operating expensive missile defense networks.

Iranian missiles that reached Israeli airspace between June 13-24 showed clear patterns of increasing success, with the most significant breakthrough occurring during the final phases of the conflict. Fragments of Iranian weaponry discovered in West Bank settlements provided physical evidence of successful penetrations.

Both Israeli and Iranian officials have independently called for comprehensive reviews of their aerial capabilities following the conflict's conclusion. Kalisky noted that "We are both on a learning curve," describing how "they're trying to improve their attacks, and we, our defense."

The geographical distribution of damage points across Israeli territory, including areas near Tel Aviv and in the West Bank, demonstrated Iran's ability to strike diverse targets despite Israel's defensive efforts. Satellite data analysis revealed impact locations that highlighted the scope of successful penetrations.

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"There's a feeling of history, of pioneering spirit. This represents a breakthrough process worldwide, but we're not getting too intoxicated with success," said Major G. (39), who heads the laser division in the Israeli Air Force. The system intercepted dozens of targets throughout the conflict, and its existence was cleared for publication Wednesday for the first time. "I relate with the chief of staff's statement – actions will speak louder than words. This achievement fills us with tremendous pride – but our focus remains forward, on the threats we face."

Video: The Iron Beam

Israel's Defense Ministry disclosed Wednesday that the country achieved a historic military breakthrough during the Iron Swords war, successfully using advanced laser systems to intercept dozens of targets in the technology's first operational deployment. The revelation ends more than 18 months of secrecy surrounding what defense officials describe as a revolutionary advancement in aerial defense capabilities.

G. oversees the development of laser system capabilities and integration processes within the Israeli Air Force as part of the Magen Administration. On October 7, he awakened to air raid sirens and immediately grasped that Israel faced a massive attack. His first call went to a senior executive at the defense industries, his contact for work on "Magen Or" (Light Shield), Israel's next-generation interception system scheduled to become operational by year's end.

"I telephoned the senior executive asking about Magen Or's status, whether we could accelerate development. We understood this might prove impossible," he recalled. Yet in Israel, even impossible scenarios become matters of determination and perspective. "From that day forward, Rafael launched an accelerated development process alongside MAFAT, incorporating various adaptations that enabled us to deploy a laser system in unprecedented timeframes."

G. directed experimental trials of the system with a compact officer team. "We mastered the system and operational doctrine independently – our knowledge was zero, everything was completely new," he explained. Once they proved feasibility,  G., a senior Rafael engineer, and a reserve officer approached the IDF senior command to advocate for operational deployment – "and the rest became history."

The Defense Ministry assigned a reserve air defense team to operate the new system, training them within an extremely compressed timeline alongside Rafael personnel and Directorate of Defence Research & Development's dedicated unit. Operational deployment commenced approximately six months ago during the Lebanon operation.

"That first evening brought overwhelming pride," G. described. "You couldn't believe it was actually happening, so you verified everything multiple times to ensure interception success." The control center erupted with tremendous excitement and spontaneous applause echoed through the facility following the dramatic achievement.

Despite Lieutenant G.'s acknowledgment of initial skepticism about a rapidly deployed system's success rate ("Honestly, it sounded like science fiction initially"), results surpassed all projections. "Our success rates exceeded expectations against operationally challenging threats."

G. emphasized that the operational laser system should not be viewed as an Iron Dome replacement, nor does it represent the full "Magen Or" system, which remains under development. "This isn't Star Wars technology, this won't render Iron Dome obsolete, but it provides an additional defensive layer and enables precision-tuned responses within our air defense architecture," he stressed. The system integrates with Iron Dome as part of a comprehensive multi-layered defense network.

Nevertheless, this represents a globally significant achievement. "This revolution matches the same magnitude as Iron Dome's introduction," he noted. "Everyone understands this is merely the beginning. Our current operational systems won't stand alone against future threats – they're components of a multi-layered array, but this opens the door to what comes next."

Development work continues to enhance and optimize system performance. "We learned the system while operating it, researching capabilities with defense industry partners and implementing field-based improvements. We're engaged in a learning competition with our adversaries, constantly working to enhance these systems and determine how they'll address emerging threats."

For G., this transcends professional responsibility. "This represents my life's work personally," he stated. According to him, the greatest source of pride lies in human capital. "The Israeli people should take pride in their human capital – the scientists and engineers who labored intensively to achieve game-changing capabilities, and equally important, the defense personnel. This reserve team suspended their normal lives, recognized the historical moment's significance, and maximized system capabilities through courage and professionalism. That represents our greatest achievement."

Regarding future developments, G. explained that "substantial equipment expansion is planned for coming years from an IDF perspective, which will dramatically improve Israel's defense capabilities and protect our forces." He described ongoing development across multiple vectors and system types, with enhanced battlefield mobility representing one key advantage. Naturally, most details regarding existing and future defense systems remain classified.

Concluding the conversation, G. addressed criticism directed at the Israeli Air Force during the war. "Considerable criticism exists, some justified, and we didn't begin this war optimally – including our drone response capabilities – but I want people to understand that the Israeli Air Force pursues every possible measure to enhance defensive capabilities and develop innovative, creative solutions. We have personnel maintaining 24-hour vigilance, seven days weekly, working alongside defense industry professionals in hazardous locations, standing guard while seeking to improve and upgrade Israel's defensive capabilities."

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Since the war began, the Air Force and defense establishment have introduced new tools and conducted trials of various systems to address the growing threat posed by drones. In late October 2024, the Air Force achieved a significant milestone by intercepting four Hezbollah drones using a scaled-down 30-kilowatt version of the Iron Beam system, which is designed to operate at 100 kilowatts. The laser technology, developed by Israeli defense industries in partnership with Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, has since been used to down additional drones.

This represents a significant technological breakthrough for Israel's defense strategy, offering not only enhanced interception capabilities but also substantial savings in cost and resources. Officials hope the system will help reshape battlefield dynamics in the event of a future war.

Shlomo Tuaf, a senior vice president at Rafael and head of its Air Defense Systems Division, addressed the system's future potential and regional threats in an interview with journalist Kobi Nachshoni at the Makor Rishon and Lev Academic Center Conference on Security and Technology.

"It's important to keep things in perspective," Tuaf said. "During the Second Lebanon War [2006], 4,000 unguided rockets were fired at Israel, causing 57 fatalities. In the current war, despite a much more intense scale of attacks involving drones and precision missiles, the number of fatalities has remained similar."

Tuaf said the Iron Beam system was in its final development stages and would be delivered to the Defense Ministry by the end of this year, as planned. "This is a groundbreaking system on a global scale, capable of addressing a wide range of threats," he added. "While I won't go into its many operational advantages, it is already known that its interception costs are extremely low. Of course, there are challenges, including weather conditions and extremely dense barrages, which is why the optimal solution lies in combining kinetic interceptors with energy-based ones. This creates a highly effective defense envelope, with marginal interception costs marking a dramatic shift, especially important in a prolonged conflict."

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At the Oval Office on Tuesday he said, "We'll have it done in three years,"outlining a vision for a space-based shield capable of intercepting missiles launched from anywhere in the world.

The Golden Dome, inspired by Israel's Iron Dome, aims to defend the US – a nation roughly 450 times larger than Israel – against advanced ballistic and hypersonic missiles. Unlike Israel's system, which focuses on short-range threats to populated areas, Trump's plan envisions a far more expansive network. "Once fully constructed, the Golden Dome will be capable of intercepting missiles even if they are launched from other sides of the world," Trump said, emphasizing the project's global reach.

High-profile defense contractors, including Elon Musk's SpaceX, are competing for contracts to build the shield, pitching directly to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The project, estimated by Trump to cost $175 billion, will be led by Gen. Michael A. Guetlein, vice chief of space operations at the United States Space Force. Trump noted that $25 billion will come from his proposed spending cut and tax bill, which he is urging House Republicans to pass.

However, experts have raised concerns about the project's feasibility, cost, and timeline. Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery told CNN that a ballistic missile defense system might be possible in seven to 10 years but would likely be limited to protecting critical federal buildings and major cities. Other experts suggested that the $175 billion estimate is conservative, with some calling the total cost incalculable due to the project's unprecedented scale.

"The Golden Dome will be capable of intercepting missiles even if they are launched from other sides of the world, and even if they're launched from space, and we will have the best system ever built," Trump said.

The Pentagon has presented the White House with small, medium, and large options for the Golden Dome's development, though Trump did not specify a final choice. "They had selected an architecture for this state-of-the-art system," he said, indicating progress in the planning process.

International interest in the project is also emerging. Trump claimed that "Canada has called us" to participate and seek protection under the Golden Dome. A statement from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's office to Reuters confirmed discussions with US counterparts about strengthening NORAD and related initiatives, including the Golden Dome, as part of broader security and economic negotiations.

The announcement has drawn international criticism, particularly from China. Mao Ning, spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, condemned the project, warning that it "carries a strong offensive nature" and could escalate "space militarization" and a global arms race.

The Golden Dome's development will require collaboration across government agencies and private contractors, a complex undertaking given the technological and financial challenges. The Defense Intelligence Agency recently highlighted threats from adversaries like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, which could target the US with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, bombers, and hypersonic weapons, underscoring the strategic impetus for the project.

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Two young men from northern Israel have been detained by the Israel Police's National Unit for International Crime Investigation (Yahbal) in a case that marks a significant escalation in Iran's espionage efforts against Israel. The suspects were allegedly recruited while serving as active duty and reserve soldiers, targeting sensitive military installations.

 

One suspect served in an Iron

Dome battery and documented classified materials at Iranian handlers' request, while the second was stationed at the Kirya base in Tel Aviv, which is where the IDF headquarters are located as well as the Defense Ministry. On Monday, prosecutors filed a statement and requested the removal of a publication ban on their arrests. During interrogation, both suspects claimed financial hardship drove them to accept Iranian payments. The prosecution is preparing to file serious indictments.

This case represents a concerning evolution in Iranian espionage operations targeting Israel. Unlike previous cases involving civilian Israeli civilians, this operation successfully recruited two 21-year-old servicemen, Yuri Eliaspov and Georgi Adriev, during their mandatory and reserve service.

The alleged espionage activities took place during September and October 2024. Both face charges of contact with a foreign agent and transmitting classified information. Eliaspov faces an additional, more severe charge of aiding the enemy during wartime – an offense that carries potential life imprisonment or death penalty.

Investigators revealed that Iran's handlers first contacted Eliaspov in September, initially tasking him with spraying graffiti in northern Israel and Tel Aviv. Eliaspov then recruited his friend Georgi, presenting it as an opportunity for "easy money." Georgi subsequently established his own direct contact with Iranian handlers and participated in graffiti operations. Together, they also mounted a poster in northern Israel declaring "Children of Ruhollah," presumably referring the Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979 following the Islamic Revolution.

The financial compensation proved modest – Eliaspov received approximately $3,500 for his activities, while Georgi collected merely $70 before their arrest.

The investigation uncovered that the suspects had shared Israeli media reports about Iranian espionage operations. This exchange prompted Georgi to withdraw from the operation, recognizing it as potential espionage. However, Eliaspov, leveraging his position within the Iron Dome system, continued providing classified information that could compromise national security. He recorded a classified video demonstrating Iron Dome operations during his service. While he claims to have shared only portions of the footage, IDF experts assess that the video contains sensitive operational details that could benefit hostile forces.

Chief Superintendent Sarit Perez, an investigator with Yahbal's Security Division, emphasized the video's sensitive nature and issued a public warning: "I appeal to citizens. Anyone in contact with foreign elements should stop." The investigation has expanded to include associates of both suspects, including fellow service members who knew of but failed to report their activities. "The Iranians cast a net, and whoever falls into their trap gets caught," Chief Superintendent Perez noted. "Identifying them as soldiers with access to IDF information led the Iranians to focus on military intelligence, including requesting details about aircraft damage from their missile strike against Israel."

Israeli police are warning about Iran's intensifying efforts to recruit Israelis for espionage operations. In a recent incident highlighting this campaign, a 16-year-old contacted the 105 hotline at Lahav 433 to report an Iranian recruitment attempt. Police have confirmed the veracity of this report.

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The US Marine Corps has successfully completed its first live-fire test of an air defense system incorporating the Iron Dome interceptor. The system combines American and Israeli technology: US-made radar and command-and-control center, alongside Rafael Advanced Defense Systems' Iron Dome interceptor (the Tamir model) and mobile launcher. Raytheon serves as the prime contractor for the project.

During the exercise, Marine Corps personnel operated the system fully through target interception and tested the continuous launch capability of the interceptors from the new mobile launcher. The successful test demonstrated both the forces' proficiency in operating the system and its effectiveness in challenging interception scenarios.

The Tamir interceptor can counter various threats including cruise missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, rockets, artillery shells, and mortar rounds. The test marks a significant milestone toward deploying the Marines' first prototype battery and demonstrates Iron Dome technology's ability to integrate with foreign air defense systems.

The system, which has proven its operational capabilities with thousands of successful interceptions a little over a decade, continues to protect lives during the current Iron Swords War. It forms part of Israel's multi-tiered defense array, which includes the Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow 2, and Arrow 3 systems.

Moshe Patel, Director of the Israel Missile Defense Organization (IMDO), said: "Iron Dome is a system with extensive operational experience, with many thousands of successful interceptions over more than a decade. The Iron Dome system continues to save lives now, during the war. The Marine Corps live-fire test provides another proof of the Iron Dome interceptor's capability, together with its ground array, to quickly and effectively integrate with any relevant air defense system and intercept various aerial threats in complex scenarios. The Defense Ministry welcomes all air defense cooperation with US military branches."

Shlomo Tuaf, Senior Vice President and Head of the Air Defense Systems Division at Rafael, said: "The Iron Dome system continues to prove itself as an advanced and unique air defense system, with thousands of successful interceptions in complex operational scenarios. The productive cooperation with the US Marine Corps and our partnership with Raytheon demonstrate Rafael's ability to provide unique and customized solutions that deliver effective and precise air defense against various aerial threats. The success of this current test marks an important milestone, and we will continue to work with the Defense Ministry's Research and Development Directorate to expand air defense capabilities in cooperation with our strategic partners worldwide."

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Israel is grappling with a looming shortage of interceptor missiles as it strengthens its air defenses against potential attacks from Iran and its proxies, according to industry executives, former military officials, and analysts, Financial Times reports.

The United States is rushing to help fill gaps in Israel's protective shield, announcing on Sunday the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) antimissile battery. This move comes as Israel is expected to launch a retaliatory strike against Iran, risking further regional escalation.

"Israel's munitions issue is serious," said Dana Stroul, a former senior US defense official with responsibility for the Middle East. "If Iran responds to an Israel attack [with a massive air strike campaign], and Hezbollah joins in too, Israel air defenses will be stretched," she added, noting that US stockpiles are not limitless. "The US can't continue supplying Ukraine and Israel at the same pace. We are reaching a tipping point."

Boaz Levy, chief executive of Israel Aerospace Industries, a state-owned company that manufactures Arrow interceptors used to shoot down ballistic missiles, said that production lines are running triple shifts to meet demand. "Some of our lines are working 24 hours, seven days a week. Our goal is to meet all our obligations," Levy said, adding that the time required to produce interceptor missiles is "not a matter of days."

Israel's triple-layered air defenses have successfully intercepted the majority of incoming drones and missiles fired by Iran and its proxies from across the region. The Iron Dome system has shot down short-range rockets and drones fired by Hamas from Gaza, while David's Sling has intercepted heavier rockets from Lebanon, and the Arrow system has blocked ballistic missiles from Iran.

The Israeli military claimed in April that, with the help of the US and other allies, it achieved a 99 percent interception rate against an Iranian salvo of 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles. However, Israel had less success fending off a second Iranian barrage of over 180 ballistic missiles fired on October 1, with almost three dozen missiles hitting Israel's Nevatim air base, according to open-source intelligence analysts.

The newly deployed US-supplied Thaad battery, designed to shoot down ballistic missiles, will complement Israel's Arrow system. This reinforcement comes as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government plans its response to Iran's missile barrage in October, which Tehran said was to avenge the killing of leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah.

Lebanon-based Hezbollah has demonstrated its ability to strike at least 60km into Israel despite weeks of Israeli attacks on its commanders and arsenal. On Sunday, a Hezbollah attack drone killed four Israeli soldiers at a military base in the center of the country.

"We are not seeing Hezbollah's full capability yet. It has only been firing at around a tenth of its estimated prewar launching capacity, a few hundred rockets a day instead of as many as 2,000," said Assaf Orion, a former Israeli brigadier general and head of strategy at the Israel Defense Forces. "Some of that gap is a choice by Hezbollah not to go full out, and some of it is due to degradation by the IDF ... But Hezbollah has enough left to mount a strong operation," Orion added. "Haifa and northern Israel are still on the receiving end of rocket and drone attacks almost every day."

Analysts told the Financial Times that defense planners and Israel's AI-powered air defenses are being forced to prioritize which areas to protect. More than 20,000 rockets and missiles have been fired at Israel over the past year from Gaza and Lebanon alone, according to official Israeli figures.

"During the October 1 attack, there was a sense the IDF reserved some Arrow interceptors in case Iran fired its next salvo at Tel Aviv," said Ehud Eilam, a former researcher at Israel's Ministry of Defense. "It's only a matter of time before Israel starts to run out of interceptors and has to prioritize how they are deployed."

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As tensions escalate on Israel's northern border, concerns grow about Hezbollah's missile capabilities and the effectiveness of Israel's civilian protection measures. In an exclusive interview with Makor Rishon, Dr. Yehoshua Kalisky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), provides a comprehensive overview of Hezbollah's arsenal, its potential impact, and the readiness of Israel's defense systems.

The conflict with Hezbollah is intensifying, and as Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strikes in Lebanon become more extensive, the range and volume of missile fire towards Israel are expanding. It is clear that the Shiite terror organization has yet to reveal its most serious capabilities in terms of missiles and drones it can launch at Israel. Less than a week after Operation Pagers, and as the frequency of shelling in northern Israel and Lebanon increases, it seems that a full-scale war is approaching our doorstep.

Hezbollah is the strongest and wealthiest terror organization in the world, with an unimaginable number of munitions of Iranian, Russian, and Chinese origin. "Estimates speak of over 150,000 rockets and missiles, but it's important to emphasize that the information on which these estimates are based, including my own assessment, relies on open sources and not on intelligence information, so the margin of error is large," said Kalisky.

Now, let's break down the weapon arsenal by range.

"Let's start with the short range, where Hezbollah has Katyushas, Grads, anti-tank missiles, and rockets with which they bombard the northern area. Starting with Burkan rockets, effective for a range of 3-5 miles, through various types of missiles and rockets that reach varying ranges, and finally, the Katyushas, which reach about 25 miles. About 50 percent of all the weapons in Hezbollah's possession are effective for this range," meaning that according to estimates, we're talking about 75,000-80,000 munitions effective for the short range.

"In addition, Hezbollah has anti-tank missiles, Kornet and Almas, based on the Israeli Gill missile. The range of the Kornet is up to 3.4 miles, and the Almas is between 2.5 and 10 miles, depending on the model. "It's not known how many anti-tank missiles Hezbollah has," says Kalisky, "but these are not the missiles and rockets they fire en masse to the north; rather, they use them sparingly."

"The second group is medium-range munitions that mainly include Fajr 3 and 5 missiles," Kalisky continues, "like the one that hit Nazareth last Saturday, and they are effective for 47-50 miles, as well as Raad missiles that reach about 43 miles. The medium-range munitions constitute about 40 percent of Hezbollah's total ammunition," that is an order of magnitude of about 60,000. Last week, the Lebanese newspaper Al-Mayadeen, close to Hezbollah, reported that the terror organization has about 80,000 Fajr 3 and 5 missiles and Raad missiles, but the reliability of the channel is questionable.

The explosive payloads in those short- and medium-range munitions that Hezbollah holds are relatively small in most cases. "Anti-tank missiles have about 10-11 pounds of explosives, Katyushas have 44 pounds, Fajr 3 have 99 pounds, Raad 110 pounds, and Fajr 5 have 198 pounds," says Kalisky. "The exception is the Burkan rocket that can carry up to half a ton of explosives."

What do the estimates say about the number of Burkan rockets Hezbollah has?

"There are currently no accurate estimates for them specifically, but I don't think they have many. The Burkan is basically a kind of flying barrel bomb, and they use it to scare or take revenge, but it's not a weapon that will decide the war."

I understand. Let's go back to dividing Hezbollah's weapons arsenal by range.

"So we come to the third group – long-range weapons, which constitute about 10 percent of Hezbollah's total ammunition. The organization has missiles that reach 62 miles and threaten the entire area up to Hadera – the Khaibar missiles, and above them, the missiles that reach 124 miles – the Zelzal and Fateh 110, which is effective for 155-186 miles and can reach Beer Sheva and Dimona. They also have, I estimate, a single-digit number of Scud missiles of the C and D models that reach 310-435 miles. The Khaibar missiles carry 330 pounds of explosive payload, the Zelzal and Fateh – about half a ton, and the Scuds between half a ton to a ton."

What is the accuracy level of Hezbollah's munitions?

"All of Hezbollah's missiles and rockets are not precision weapons, but statistical – they don't have GPS, only a gyroscope (a device that helps maintain stability, direction, and speed), but this is not advanced technology. The Germans used it in World War II," says Kalisky.

"The exceptions are the Kornet, which is a laser-guided weapon, and the Fateh 110 ballistic missiles. The Fateh is a GPS-guided missile and they are accurate within a radius of 98 to 164 feet, very high accuracy relative to distances of hundreds of miles." The Fateh also carries a significantly heavier payload of about half a ton of explosives. A missile with such a level of accuracy poses a significant threat to densely populated civilian areas and large military targets located hundreds of miles from the border.

What damage can such a missile carrying half a ton of explosives do?

"When talking about damage, you need to take into account the specific missile carrying the explosive payload and its speed. Heavy ballistic missiles carrying half a ton of explosives and coming from above, from the atmosphere (they are fired outside the atmosphere and then start descending towards the target), gain tremendous speed and reach up to 10-15 times the speed of sound – creating shock waves, so the damage they cause is severe," says Kalisky. "In the Gulf War, such a missile hit one building on Yona Street in Ramat Gan and took down the entire street. The shock waves create a double and quadruple effect," he added. Last Thursday, 7 Burkan rockets were fired at Metula, which led to the complete destruction of houses, extensive fires, collapse of the electricity grid, and more.

What defense systems in Israel are not capable of intercepting?

"The Burkan and anti-tank missiles – the Kornet and Almas. This is because the firing range is very short, so they reach the target too quickly. In addition, the Iron Dome knows how to intercept missiles and rockets on a ballistic trajectory that rises and falls, while the anti-tank flies in direct alignment and at low altitudes, similar to the Burkan. In the future, when we have a laser cannon, we hope it will succeed in intercepting this type of munition as well because it will be able to reach the target at the speed of light."

When is the laser cannon expected to enter operational use?

"The official announcement from MAFAT (Directorate of Defense Research & Development) was that it is expected to enter at the end of 2025."

Safe Room Resilience

The obligation to install a safe room came in 1992, following the First Gulf War, meaning that in their original purpose, safe rooms were designed to protect their occupants from blast and shrapnel from ballistic missiles similar to those that came from Iraq. The safe room also withstands the scenario of a direct hit by a missile with a small explosive payload on the building – the vast majority of Hezbollah's ammunition, as mentioned.

However, the protection provided by the protected spaces is not perfect. A direct hit by a missile or rocket carrying large amounts of explosives like the Burkan, or missiles belonging to Hezbollah's long-range munitions group, can penetrate the safe room and even destroy it. During the Gulf War, a Scud missile managed to penetrate the shelter at Beit Dani in Tel Aviv. Hitting a safe room in a way that will succeed in penetrating it is a scenario with relatively low probability, but not impossible, subject to the location where the explosive payload meets the protected space and the energy generated by the impact, resulting from the type of munition and the speed at which it arrives, as Dr. Kalisky said above.

The missile that hit on Sunday in the front of a house in Kiryat Bialik significantly damaged the structure, caused the safe room window to be torn off and its glass to break, with the glass injuring one person who was sitting in the room, despite the family sealing the safe room door and window. During Operation Guardian of the Walls in 2021, a child, Ido Avigal, was killed as a result of a rocket fragment that penetrated through the safe room window where he was staying with his family. The window is the weakest point in the safe room, but despite this fact – there is no instruction from the Home Front Command to crouch below the window line when staying in it.

Last year, several manufacturers conducted a test with the participation of the Home Front Command designed to examine more resilient safe room windows so that they would be more resistant to impacts.

Anything you'd like to add in conclusion?

"In the end, we have defense systems that no other country in the world has," says Kalisky, "They consist of Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow 2, Arrow 3, fighter jets, and, thank God, the number of casualties is very small, with most of them not fatalities. Along with this, it's important to follow the Home Front Command's instructions. They save lives."

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As small, unmanned drones become increasingly prevalent on modern battlefields, dropping explosives and conducting surveillance, a US defense startup believes it has a innovative solution to counter this aerial threat. ZeroMark is developing a system designed to transform soldiers' standard rifles into portable anti-drone weapons, according to a recent report from WIRED magazine.

The company's approach involves integrating software and hardware components onto existing infantry rifles. A sensor mounted near the barrel works with an actuator in the stock or foregrip to make minor adjustments to the soldier's aim when tracking a hostile drone. "We use lidar and electro-optical sensors to detect, classify, and monitor the drones," ZeroMark CEO Joel Anderson told WIRED. "Then our system calculates precise factors like bullet drop, trajectory, and wind compensation – complex ballistics that are very difficult for a human to correctly account for."

By taking these complex calculations out of the soldier's hands, ZeroMark aims to significantly increase the probability of successfully shooting down an evasive, high-speed drone with standard rifle fire. "For a computer, determining the exact point where the shot must intersect the drone's flight path is pretty easy," Anderson explained to WIRED. "So when the soldier pulls the trigger, there's a high likelihood of a hit."

The Lords of Silicon Valley Are Thrilled to Present a 'Handheld Iron Dome' https://t.co/I4qV8MzmsG

— WIRED Science (@WIREDScience) June 6, 2024

The ambitious concept attracted $7 million in venture capital funding from Andreesen Horowitz. With drones playing an outsized role in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the demand for effective counter-drone technologies is soaring across global militaries.

However, some experts like Arthur Holland Michel from the Carnegie Council remain skeptical until the system can be proven effective through open demonstrations. "There are a lot of question marks around a technology like this," Michel cautioned to WIRED, citing potential issues with the "inherent unpredictability" of machine learning systems operating in uncontrolled environments.

While ZeroMark claims to be evaluating the system with "partners in Ukraine" for possible deployment by late summer, the startup's proposed rifle-integrated drone defense will likely face intense scrutiny before any combat adoption.

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Former President Donald Trump promised during his 78th birthday celebration Friday to construct an Israel-style missile defense system for the United States if elected to a second term in office.

Addressing supporters at Club 47, Trump drew inspiration from the Iron Dome and promised to erect "a great" equivalent over the US. "By next term, we will build a great Iron Dome over our country," he declared. "We deserve a dome. We deserve it all, made state-of-the-art."

Trump emphasized that the proposed missile shield would be entirely American-made. "It's a missile defense shield, and it'll all be made in America," he told the crowd. He touted the economic opportunities such a project would create, stating, "Jobs, jobs, jobs."

The former president also recalled that while in the late 1980s, then-President Ronald Reagan envisioned a similar system during his presidency, the necessary technology was not yet available. "We now have the technology," Trump asserted.

According to Trump, the domestic manufacturing of the missile defense components would provide "beautiful" job prospects for young Americans across multiple states. "It's all going to be made in states," he said. "We're going to have a big, beautiful Iron Dome."

Israel's Iron Dome has been highly effective in intercepting short-range rockets and artillery fired from up to 43 miles away. Operational since 2011, the system has successfully neutralized threats from Palestinian terrorist groups, Iranian drones, and missiles.

Trump's proposal aligns with his longstanding "America First" agenda, prioritizing domestic manufacturing and job creation within the United States.

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