Israeli lawmakers on Wednesday passed in a preliminary vote a bill to dissolve the Knesset, potentially plunging the country into its fourth election in under two years.

Campaign experts and media strategists Lior Rotbert, Tal Alexandrovitz, and Rimon Cohen shared with Israel Hayom their outlook for the upcoming vote, and their recommendations to the various party leaders ahead of the elections.

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Rotbert, CEO of Spot Communications, said that the upcoming elections, which will most likely take place in late March 2021, would probably focus on the narrative, namely "submarines" versus "vaccines."

Blue and White leader Defense Minister Benny Gantz "will most likely direct the spotlight at the commission of inquiry he set up to investigate the submarine affair, whereas Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will highlight his success in purchasing millions of COVID-19 vaccines and his work in bringing peace to the region.

"These elections, if they indeed take place, could bring with them a new situation in which the battle for the identity of the party that garners the most attention in the election campaign is waged between two right-wing parties [Likud and Yamina]," Rotbert continued.

"Whether or not it is in Netanyahu and Bennett's interest to play on that depends on your worldview, but it's likely to undercut the Center-Left parties if they fail to join forces. If that happens, Bennett could receive votes that will not otherwise be in his favor."

Alexandrovitz, CEO of PR firm Ben Horin and Alexandrovitz, said that political parties should work to maintain their current voter base and expand it at the same time.

"The biggest threat to the Likud right now is Yamina. Likud will need to say that Yamina is not a genuine right-wing political party; that it sympathizes with the Left; that in the moment of truth [Yamina leader Naftali] Bennett will side with [Opposition Leader Yair] Lapid. They need to explain to right-wing voters that if they vote for Yamina, they might end up with a coalition that ousted Netanyahu," she advised.

Rimon, CEO of the Rimon Cohen consulting firm, said that "Likud should highlight Netanyahu's international achievements, especially the peace agreement with the United Arab Emirates, the purchase of millions of vaccines, and the unemployment benefits that were provided for many Israelis."

According to Rotbert, "Yamina's campaign should underscore looking out for the average Israeli, those who understand that rehabilitating the economy is more important than anything else.

Bennett, he explained, has to try to appeal to centerist voters who may support him, so he can try and associate himself with political figures who are more moderate, secular, or even less right-wing. He will need to both downplay Yamina MK Betzalel Smotrich's rehtoric, while simultaniosuly making the most of his [Smotrich's] appeal to the settler electorate.

Alexandrovitz advised that "it is in Yamina's interest to highlight Netanyahu's mismanagement of the coronavirus crisis. Bennett is positioning himself as an alternative to Netanyahu. He will attract right-wing and centerist voters who believe that the way to oust Netanyahu is actually through the Right.

"Bennett will need to address both the settlers and the voters disappointed by Blue and White. It won't be easy. That's why Bennett will focus on Netanyahu's handling of the coronavirus crisis, rather than on settlements and the sovereignty bid," she explained.

As for Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, "He should present himself as the only alternative to Netanyahu, stress that a criminal has no place in the political arena," Rimon advised.

Rotbert said that "the battle in the Center-Left will be bloody if its factions fail to unite. Their combined number of seats might decrease to 30, lower than in any previous election campaign. If the Left continues its infighting, it might lead to the entire Center-Left to implode."

According to Alexandrovitz, "Yesh Atid should focus on attracting disappointed Netanyahu voters. Lapid will stress that he has stayed true to his promises and will continue to keep his promises to his voters. He will say that Bennett will eventually join Netanyahu, and that will help him attract some of Bennett's voters. He will no doubt also try and attract Blue and White voters."

Alternatively, "Blue and White will try to reinvent itself by claiming that they dismantled the government, that they, in fact, they gave up their own seats for the sake of their principles and the [state] budget," Alexandrovitz explained.

"They will present Gantz as a successful defense minister and Gabi Ashkenazi as the foreign minister in an era of peace and action. Blue and White will try to regain the voters they lost to Bennett by claiming that Bennett will eventually join Netanyahu", she continued.

Rimon advised that "Blue and White should proclaim that they have done everything they could for the country. They have sacrificed their good name in the struggle to curb the coronavirus crisis. They fought against Netanyahu and are responsible for him abandoning his plans to extend Israeli sovereignty to parts of Judea and Samaria and managed to safeguard the judicial system."

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After giving its preliminary approval, and barring last-minute progress in deadlocked efforts to form a new government, the Knesset was set to vote for its dissolution later in the day and approve a March 2, 2020 election date already agreed upon by the two major parties.

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What had once seemed nearly impossible to many Israelis – a third visit to polling stations after inconclusive elections in April and September – carries a heavy economic price: it will be well into 2020 before a new budget is passed, which will mean months of cutbacks that could weigh on growth.

Neither Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party nor the rival Blue and White party led by former military chief Benny Gantz, won enough seats for a governing majority in the previous two contests on April 9 and Sept. 17.

Both men were tasked with forming a coalition, but failed. Each has blamed the other for the impasse, in which neither could agree on the terms for a rotating premiership.

Under Israeli law, since neither MK managed to win the confidence of the Knesset, this means that by Wednesday at midnight the Knesset automatically dissolves.

The only way to avert to this would be if someone gets the endorsement of 61 MKs to become prime minister, but both sides appeared to be hunkering down on Wednesday afternoon.

In the two previous national ballots, Netanyahu's opponents focused on the three corruption investigations against him that included allegations he dispensed favors to media barons in a push for more favorable media coverage.

But this time, Israel's longest-serving leader is running under the cloud of criminal indictment after charges of bribery, breach of trust, and fraud against him were announced last month.

Denying any wrongdoing, Netanyahu, 70, has accused legal authorities of attempting a "coup" aimed at ousting a popular right-wing leader. Critics alleged that Netanyahu was trying to undermine the rule of law and set an election campaign theme portraying himself as the victim of "deep state" conspiracy.

As prime minister, Netanyahu is under no legal obligation to resign as a result of the indictment, and while in office he can ask the legislature to grant him immunity from prosecution.

As caretaker premier, Netanyahu would remain in the post until a new government is formed – a process that could stretch months past a March ballot if what is likely to be tortuous coalition-building is taken into account.

Netanyahu, vowing to "win big" at the polls, has described himself as best-placed to deal with Israel's many security threats. He has cited challenges posed by Iran as the main reason why Gantz should rally to his call for a unity government.

An opinion poll on Israel's Channel 13 News on Tuesday forecast Blue and White would win 37 seats to Likud's 33 in the 120-member parliament, increasing the one-seat advantage it gained in the election in April.

But it also indicated that both parties could still struggle to secure enough allies for a majority coalition.

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According to Channel 13, if the election were held today, Blue and White – which announced Monday that in the event of a third election, it would not be running under a rotating leadership and would unite under leader Benny Gantz – would win 37 seats, compared to 33 for the Likud. The Joint Arab List would be the third-largest faction, with 13 seats, followed by Yisrael Beytenu (eight) and United Torah Judaism, with seven seats.

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The poll projected six seats each for Shas and the New Right, and five seats each for Labor-Gesher and the Democratic Union.

In the second poll, which tried to determine how Sa'ar as head of the Likud would influence voting, also gave Blue and White the largest number of seats – 35 – while the Likud dropped to a projected 29.

The second poll also predicted 13 seats for the Joint Arab List and eight seats for Yisrael Beytenu, with seven seats each for United Torah Judaism, Shas, and the New Right.

Respondents were also asked who should be held responsible if the country is forced to hold a third election. Some 41% blamed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with 26% saying that Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman was responsible. Only 5% saw Gantz as responsible for the political impasse.

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Israeli political battle lines often fracture along how the country balances Jewish religion and liberal democracy. These tensions were a central issue in this week's national election, and are sure to influence the composition of the country's next government.

While the country's Jewish majority is largely secular, parties representing the ultra-Orthodox minority have traditionally wielded considerable political power.

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Acting as coalition kingmakers, religious parties hold a monopoly on many areas of daily life, from the closure of stores and public transport on Shabbat to Jewish burial and marriage rites.

Israel has granted the ultra-Orthodox community sweeping exemptions from the country's mandatory military draft. This has built resentment among the secular majority, who are required to serve.

After Israel held elections last April, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's prospective governing coalition collapsed because a secular ally, Yisrael Beytenu party leader Avigdor Lieberman, insisted on legislation to force young ultra-Orthodox men to also serve in the military.

Playing on this theme, Lieberman's party boosted its strength in Tuesday's election and is poised to be a central player in the next coalition government. He is insisting on a broad secular partnership with the country's two largest parties.

"Israelis voted more on religion and state as a result of the political growth and appetite of the ultra-Orthodox parties," said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank.

Of Israel's 9 million people, 75% are Jewish. Most of the population is secular, traditional, or Modern Orthodox, and 14% are ultra-Orthodox, according to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics. Another 20% of the population is made up by the country's Muslim, Christian and Druze Arabs.

As coalition negotiations get set to begin, here's a look at religion's role in Israeli politics:

Orthodox

The two ultra-Orthodox parties – the predominantly Ashkenazi United Torah Judaism and Sephardi Shas party representing Jews of Middle Eastern descent – and the national religious Yamina faction, advocate a greater place for Orthodox Judaism in state life, including religious education and shutting public transportation on Shabbat.

They also have rejected efforts to dissolve a long-standing exemption for religious men to study in seminaries in lieu of having to serve in the military.

Religious Jewish parties won nearly 20% of the vote in Tuesday's repeat election. In recent decades, those parties have typically united with the conservative Likud party to form a governing coalition. But this time, the religious-nationalist bloc fell short of a majority in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, winning only 55 of the 120 seats.

Secular

Several of the main liberal parties – Blue and White, Yisrael Beytenu, Labor, and the Democratic Union – ran on a secular platform, advocating measures such as universal military draft that includes ultra-Orthodox men and civil marriage. Currently, all Jewish marriages in Israel must be performed by the country's Orthodox Rabbinate, which requires that both partners be Jewish and that the ceremony adhere to Orthodox custom.

Lieberman's staunchly secular Yisrael Beytenu party is supported mainly by mostly nonreligious, Russian-speaking immigrants from the former Soviet Union.

Blue and White, headed by former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz, campaigned ahead of election day with ads calling for a "secular national unity government." Those calls were echoed by Lieberman, who supports a partnership with Gantz and Netanyahu that excludes the ultra-Orthodox parties.

Arabs

The majority of Israel's roughly 20% Arab minority are Sunni Muslims, with the remainder made up of Druze and Christians. Most self-define as traditional or religious, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics. The Joint Arab List, a union of four smaller factions, including a secular nationalist, an Islamist, and a communist party, won a projected 13 seats in the Knesset. Most Arabs tend to vote based on national identity rather than along religious lines.

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But upon closer inspection, we see that the battles are being waged within the two political camps. In just the last 24 hours, Democratic Union leader Ehud Barak has managed to attack Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, who responded to the former prime minister in kind. Blue and White directed its fire at Labor leader Amir Peretz, while United Right's Bezalel Smotrich found time to quarrel with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who responded by calling him in for a dressing down. And all the while, the far-right Otzma Yehudit incessantly attacked parties on the Right.

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The reason for all this seems to be that all the parties have reached the conclusion – at a relatively early stage in the election campaign – that the battle between the political blocs is in fact irrelevant. The assessment is that a great deal of energy will need to be invested in bringing votes over from one side to another, with rather poor results, while the pool of potential voters that can be more easily persuaded to vote for a different party can in fact be found within their camp. Sometimes, it's just easier to wage a civil war than manage a war among ideologues.

This situation appears to serve Netanyahu's interests. The right-wing bloc is set to garner a larger majority than the left-wing bloc, and in the absence of any competition for right-wing votes, will be the bloc that guarantees him his next victory. This time around, Netanyahu is free of any sentiments or political concerns. With United Right's Ayelet Shaked and Naftali Bennett, whom he recently fired from his government, being the strongest figures to his right, and their party predicted to safely pass the electoral threshold, there is nothing keeping him from stealing Knesset seats from United Right unhindered.

But this is all seemingly true. Yisrael Beytenu chief Avigdor Lieberman could turn out to be an effective tool for stealing Knesset seats from the Right for the Left, thereby doing Gantz and his fellow Blue and White leader Yair Lapid and Barak's work for them, seeing as they are incapable of doing it themselves.

But the right-wing parties aren't suckers either. They won't allow Netanyahu to steal votes to his heart's content this time around. While the prime minister will claim Bennet and Shaked will join forces with Gantz, they will throw the same exact accusation back at him.

On the Left, the situation, while similar, is more dangerous. The parties look stable now, but then again, so did the New Right on the eve of the last election. Peretz still has plans of taking votes from the Right and the periphery, but it seems that Blue and White, and certainly the Democratic Union, have given up on this option, and prefer to direct their arrows inward.

And there is one more explanation: The attacks within the blocs are convenient not just for the election but for the breaking of campaign promises later. With Gantz is focusing his attacks mainly on Barak, who will remember that at some point in time, he promised not to join a government under Netanyahu? And when Netanyahu designates Shaked, Bennett, and Smotrich enemies of the Right, who will blame him should he decide to leave them out of the coalition and join forces with Peretz instead?

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