Israeli lawmakers on Wednesday passed in a preliminary vote a bill to dissolve the Knesset, potentially plunging the country into its fourth election in under two years.
Campaign experts and media strategists Lior Rotbert, Tal Alexandrovitz, and Rimon Cohen shared with Israel Hayom their outlook for the upcoming vote, and their recommendations to the various party leaders ahead of the elections.
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Rotbert, CEO of Spot Communications, said that the upcoming elections, which will most likely take place in late March 2021, would probably focus on the narrative, namely "submarines" versus "vaccines."
Blue and White leader Defense Minister Benny Gantz "will most likely direct the spotlight at the commission of inquiry he set up to investigate the submarine affair, whereas Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will highlight his success in purchasing millions of COVID-19 vaccines and his work in bringing peace to the region.
"These elections, if they indeed take place, could bring with them a new situation in which the battle for the identity of the party that garners the most attention in the election campaign is waged between two right-wing parties [Likud and Yamina]," Rotbert continued.
"Whether or not it is in Netanyahu and Bennett's interest to play on that depends on your worldview, but it's likely to undercut the Center-Left parties if they fail to join forces. If that happens, Bennett could receive votes that will not otherwise be in his favor."
Alexandrovitz, CEO of PR firm Ben Horin and Alexandrovitz, said that political parties should work to maintain their current voter base and expand it at the same time.
"The biggest threat to the Likud right now is Yamina. Likud will need to say that Yamina is not a genuine right-wing political party; that it sympathizes with the Left; that in the moment of truth [Yamina leader Naftali] Bennett will side with [Opposition Leader Yair] Lapid. They need to explain to right-wing voters that if they vote for Yamina, they might end up with a coalition that ousted Netanyahu," she advised.
Rimon, CEO of the Rimon Cohen consulting firm, said that "Likud should highlight Netanyahu's international achievements, especially the peace agreement with the United Arab Emirates, the purchase of millions of vaccines, and the unemployment benefits that were provided for many Israelis."
According to Rotbert, "Yamina's campaign should underscore looking out for the average Israeli, those who understand that rehabilitating the economy is more important than anything else.
Bennett, he explained, has to try to appeal to centerist voters who may support him, so he can try and associate himself with political figures who are more moderate, secular, or even less right-wing. He will need to both downplay Yamina MK Betzalel Smotrich's rehtoric, while simultaniosuly making the most of his [Smotrich's] appeal to the settler electorate.
Alexandrovitz advised that "it is in Yamina's interest to highlight Netanyahu's mismanagement of the coronavirus crisis. Bennett is positioning himself as an alternative to Netanyahu. He will attract right-wing and centerist voters who believe that the way to oust Netanyahu is actually through the Right.
"Bennett will need to address both the settlers and the voters disappointed by Blue and White. It won't be easy. That's why Bennett will focus on Netanyahu's handling of the coronavirus crisis, rather than on settlements and the sovereignty bid," she explained.
As for Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, "He should present himself as the only alternative to Netanyahu, stress that a criminal has no place in the political arena," Rimon advised.
Rotbert said that "the battle in the Center-Left will be bloody if its factions fail to unite. Their combined number of seats might decrease to 30, lower than in any previous election campaign. If the Left continues its infighting, it might lead to the entire Center-Left to implode."
According to Alexandrovitz, "Yesh Atid should focus on attracting disappointed Netanyahu voters. Lapid will stress that he has stayed true to his promises and will continue to keep his promises to his voters. He will say that Bennett will eventually join Netanyahu, and that will help him attract some of Bennett's voters. He will no doubt also try and attract Blue and White voters."
Alternatively, "Blue and White will try to reinvent itself by claiming that they dismantled the government, that they, in fact, they gave up their own seats for the sake of their principles and the [state] budget," Alexandrovitz explained.
"They will present Gantz as a successful defense minister and Gabi Ashkenazi as the foreign minister in an era of peace and action. Blue and White will try to regain the voters they lost to Bennett by claiming that Bennett will eventually join Netanyahu", she continued.
Rimon advised that "Blue and White should proclaim that they have done everything they could for the country. They have sacrificed their good name in the struggle to curb the coronavirus crisis. They fought against Netanyahu and are responsible for him abandoning his plans to extend Israeli sovereignty to parts of Judea and Samaria and managed to safeguard the judicial system."
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