The fourth wave of the coronavirus pandemic is hitting across the globe, but the impact it has varies from country to country. A new study conducted by Hebrew University found that Israel has certain characteristics that give it a better chance of coping with the fourth wave better than other countries.

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The study, by Prof. Uzi Rebhun of the A. Harman Institute of Contemporary Jewry at Hebrew University, was published in Migration Letters, an international leading scholarly journal, under the title "Inter-country variations in COVID-19 incidence from a social science perspective."

Rebhun focused on focus on the thirty-six OECD member states and examined "country-level characteristics of the timing of the coronavirus outbreak and its morbidity and case-fatality rates."

He "harvested data" from daily World Health Organization reports and official publications of major world organizations and then "clustered the latter information under three rubrics – socio-demographic, risk behaviors, and economic and public health."

Rebhun found that "country economic status and healthcare services" were "significant in moderating the health outcomes of coronavirus infection."

Nevertheless, he found, the most important determinant for restraining contagion and mortality is governmental safety measures – quarantines, lockdowns, tracing, testing, transparency of information, restrictions on tourism, quality of health services, and prior experience with national emergencies – which can reduce the number of infected people and deaths by about 50%.

Based on this determinant, which consists of 130 parameters addressed in the study, following the initial 100 days of the pandemic, Israel was ranked first among OECD countries and its conduct at the time made it a role model for many other countries.

The study also found that initial outbreaks occurred earlier in countries with larger immigrant populations. The explanation for this is that oftentimes immigrants live in close and crowded ethnic enclaves, don't understand the native language well enough to follow safety guidelines, while illegal immigrants tend to avoid getting tested and consequently are likelier to spread the virus to family members and friends.

However, the study also found that the more religious a population, the later the waves of the pandemic hit. Religiosity was also found to reduce mortality rates as patients in these places are more likely to receive extra help from their communities, emotional support and hope of recovery beyond objective medical odds.

"Until the medical research completely understands the structure of the coronavirus and develops a vaccine and medicine for all the mutations, it is imperative to implement and improve epidemiological approaches," wrote Rebhun.

"Israel has numerous structural advantages over other countries," he determined, including the large percentage of the population that is vaccinated, restoring the "green pass" system, restricting travel to and from abroad, and administering a third vaccine dose to the elderly.

"Cautious future measures could ensure success in contending with the new and fourth wave of the pandemic," Rebhun concluded.

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Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, a former software entrepreneur, pledged on Tuesday to slash regulations to cut the cost of living and help Israel's small and medium-size businesses flourish as well as its globally successful hi-tech sector.

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"We want to 'high-techicize' the rest of the economy," he told a news conference in Jerusalem. "We're going to turn ourselves into a paradise for small and medium businesses ... to make it easy and compelling to open a business and succeed."

Bennett, who took office last month, took a swipe at his predecessor Benjamin Netanyahu, saying Israel had endured 12 years of talk and "minimal execution."

Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman said there were 209 regulators in Israel and that they acted mainly in their own interests instead of aiming to improve productivity, competition, and growth.

He pointed to a 2018 report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that said reducing the level of regulation to the OECD average would increase Israel's per-capita GDP by 3.75% in five years, and 5.75% – 75 billion shekels ($23 billion) – over a decade.

According to a report by the Prime Minister's Office and Finance and Justice Ministries, Israel's per capita GDP and productivity have lagged Western peers for a decade due to over-regulation.

Under a framework law, the government plans to establish a single authority to oversee regulatory processes and to factor speed of processing, competitiveness, and pricing into corporate regulations.

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Despite important actions Israel has taken, it is far from being one of the world's most developed countries, a new report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) published this week has determined.

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The report notes that even prior to the COVID pandemic, Israel's per capita productivity and GDP were some 30% lower than those in the OECD's outstanding countries. The report cited a higher rate of inequality in Israel than in other developed countries, and said that a significant part of Israel's children did not complete school with skills that would help them in the job market.

The OECD praised Israel's government for funneling more money into education, although said the additional budget did not "translate" into better achievement because the structure of the school system had not changed.

According to the authors of the report, the COVID pandemic poses "long-term challenges" to Israel, particularly in the form of extensive poverty – notably among Arab Israelis and Haredi Jews – and a growing gap between Israel's "vibrant" high-tech sector and the traditional economy.

The report notes that prior to COVID, Israel's per capita GDP was 28% lower than that of the strongest member nations in the OECD (not the OECD average), whereas per capita productivity was 35% lower than that of the strongest OECCD nations. Israel's employment rate was considered average and had not changed significantly since the start of the pandemic, the report aid.

Israel also spends considerably less on job training than other developed nations – 8% compared to up to 20% -- the report said.

The report assigned Israel an overall "inequality score" of 34.8, compared to a median score of 30.3 in the OECD. In OECD rankings, the lowest level of inequality is ranked at 23, and third-world nations rank at 45.3 for inequality.

Israel's public transportation system lagged "significantly" behind most OECD nations even prior to the COVID pandemic, the report said, creating some of the worst traffic congestion in the organization. The report cited lack of efficient public transportation infrastructure as one reason why 75% of Israeli citizens live with highly polluted air.

On a slightly more positive note, the report noted that Israel released less greenhouse gas than the OECD average, and praised the new commuter train line between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, as well as the construction of a light rail system for the greater Tel Aviv area and other transportation infrastructure projects.

The organization recommended that Israel promote public transportation and establish transportation authority that would liaise between the government and local authorities.

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In the first such long-term plan aimed at cutting Israel's greenhouse gases, the Energy Ministry has published its goals for bringing down greenhouse emissions by 80% by 2050.

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Among the targets set out by the ministry are the shuttering of all of Israel's coal stations by 2025, cutting emissions in the electric sector by between 75% and 85% by 2050, and an annual 1.3% improvement in energy intensity indicators that measure the energy required per unit output or activity.

The Energy Ministry is also leading the effort to transition to a low-emission economy that relies on electric transportation. The ministry expects the plan to result in a 92% decrease in emissions from the electric sector by 2030.

Within the framework of its membership in the Organization of Economic Organization and Development, Israel has committed to cutting its greenhouse gases 30% by 2030.

Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz called the plan, which he said would see Israel surpass the goals set by the Paris climate accord, a "knockout punch to air pollution."

Meanwhile, the Environmental Protection Ministry announced it was working to advance legislation to increase energy efficiency, expand the use of renewable energy, better prepare for the effects of climate change, and cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The proposed legislation sets a target of cutting emissions by 27% by 2030, in the hope of cutting annual emissions by 85% by 2050.

The ministry has also proposed an advisory committee to assist in the formulation of a national action plan that would be updated every five years and monitor its implementation. It further proposed an independent committee of experts is formed to ensure open dialogue on the subject.

In the coming days, the ministry will publish the draft climate law for review by the public and relevant government officials.

Environmental Protection Minister Gila Gamliel said that "with the help of the climate law, we are protecting the public, its health, and its welfare, and future generations in particular, from the consequences of the climate crisis."

Amit Bracha, executive director of the Israel Union for Environmental Defense, which is working with the ministry to advance the legislation, said: "We are on the path to bringing Israel into the list of … countries that are preparing to deal with the climate crisis. An Israeli climate law is a necessary legacy we must leave our children."

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The Paris-based organization, which serves 37 countries and which Israel joined in 2010, warned world government against prematurely rolling back emergency measures designed to boost employment, saying now was the time for incentives to stabilize the job market.

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Israel's economy, regularly lauded for being one of the most stable in the world, was forced to slow down to about 15% activity as the public and private sectors were shuttered in early March in an effort to stem the spread of COVID-19.

While Israel has been gradually resuming economic activity over the past few weeks, the coronavirus crisis has triggered unprecedented unemployment of 26% – compared to 4% prior to the outbreak.

With a second outbreak now in full swing, the government has once again imposed restrictions on public life, saying they are imperative in order to avoid a second, nationwide lockdown – something that would cripple the economy.

The National Insurance Institute said that May ended with an unemployment rate of 23.5%, or 960,000 Israelis who have filed jobless claims.

According to the NII, 206,000 people who were placed on unpaid leave returned to work in May, compared to 35,000 in April.

The Israel Employment Service noted that the incentive program offering grants to employers for each employee taken back from furlough is expected to help reduce unemployment rates as well.

The government has already injected an unprecedented 100 billion shekel ($28 billion) into the economy as part of its financial bailout plan. Still, the Bank of Israel predicted that the budget deficit for 2020 will amount to NIS 150 billion ($43 billion) or 11.5% of the gross domestic product.

But according to the OECD, the corona crunch may trigger the worse peacetime recession in the past 100 years.

While developed economies are likely to experience a rapid initial recovery from the recession, it will still fall short from the pre-pandemic level recorded in early 2020, it said.

OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone said the economic impact of coronavirus on unemployment, corporate bankruptcy, and adjustments to social distancing would prevent the normal process of economic recovery from recession.

"Most people see a V-shaped recovery, but we think it's going to stop halfway. By the end of 2021, the loss of income exceeds that of any previous recession over the last 100 years outside wartime, with dire and long-lasting consequences for people, firms, and governments," she said.

The OECD predicted that the global economy is likely to shrink by 12% in the first half of 2020, saying it will still be below the level it reached at the start of 2020 by the end of the following year.

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"When you reopen the sectors that can function nearly normally, then you obviously get a surge in activity, but because the virus is prevalent elsewhere or is not eradicated in our countries, then some borders remain closed, some mobility will be hampered and some sectors cannot function like entertainment or mass gatherings," Boone said.

The International Monetary Fund has also slashed its economic forecasts for world markets, foreseeing that global gross domestic product will shrink by 4.9% in 2020 due to the coronavirus outbreak.

"The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated," the IMF's World Economic Output report said, adding that the global economy is likely to rebound by 5.4% in 2021.

The IMF predicted that the Israeli economy would shrink by 6.3% in 2020, adding it does not believe Israel's GDP would be able to return to its pre-pandemic level until 2022.

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Speaking at an online conference hosted by The Jerusalem Post marking 10 years since Israel joined the OECD, Knudsen said, "The Israeli level of development and digitization is twice that of other OECD countries."

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The Jewish state contributes a great deal to the world's knowledge and has a "very strong foundation" for future growth, said Knudsen.

"Israel has one of the highest levels in internet accessibility for children up to age six. Israel has a lot of information in the field of network security, and it contributes a lot to our knowledge and experience. This has given you a very strong foundation and an opportunity for rapid development in the future," he said.

Israeli President Reuven Rivlin also spoke at the virtual conference, praising the strength of the Israeli economy over the past decade and noting that when Israel joined the OECD, structural changes to the country had been required, as well as the meeting of targets that he said had brought improvements in a range of fields.

However, Rivlin said that while much has been accomplished, much remains still to be done.

"While high-tech and the financial sectors in Israel have flourished, the Israel of minimum wage has struggled," said Rivlin, according to a statement released by the President's Office. "Alongside the booming economy of Herzliya and Tel Aviv, the economy of Bnei Brak, Hatzor and Rahat have not kept pace. They are all our children, they are all our citizens."

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The Israeli president expressed confidence in Israel's ability to meet the challenge, saying, "There is an inherent tension between the vital aspiration to be the startup nation and the desire to excel, and the need to also stop and look at the situation of those left behind. I believe that we can do both and that it is in our nature to do so. I believe that cooperation and transparency, open economy, and encouraging entrepreneurial spirit are hopes that we all share to succeed and to reach the goal—a more successful and better world."

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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The report found that 8.7% of Israel's overall electricity is now produced by solar energy –second in the world behind Honduras (14.8%), and ahead of Germany (8.6%), Chile (8.5%), Australia and Greece (8.1%).

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The figures reflect the Energy Ministry's ambitious 80 billion shekel ($22.8 billion) plan, unveiled in early June, to increase the use of solar power over the coming decade, as Israel's population and energy demands are set to surge.

Though awash with sunlight, at the end of 2019 Israel was producing just 5% of its electricity from solar energy. About 64% came from natural gas and the rest from coal.

Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz said the new target is to outpace rising demand and have solar power production grow to 30% by 2030, or about 16,000 megawatts.

The Energy Ministry aims to completely phase out coal by 2026.

It was also the first time Israel cracked the top 20 countries in the world in terms of its potential to install and exploit solar PV (photovoltaic) panels. According to the report, the cost of installing these panels is expected to drop significantly in the coming years.

"When I entered office in 2015, Israel was among the worst-rated countries in terms of solar energy production, and many claimed that we have no chance of hitting the targets we set for ourselves. I'm extremely proud that within just a few years we've climbed to first place in terms of solar energy production – among all OECD countries – and second place in the entire world," said Steinitz.

He added: "About one month ago I announced a new target to outpace rising demand and have solar power production grow to 30% within 10 years. What this means is that at peak afternoon hours, 100% of Israel's electricity will be generated by the sun, some of which we will be able to store for the night hours. This target will take us to first place in solar energy production in the whole world."

According to Steinitz, this ambitious goal wasn't determined casually.

"For an entire year, officials from the Israel Public Utility Authority for Electricity and the Energy Ministry sat down and thoroughly explored the following questions: Is the target feasible from a technological standpoint? What is the necessary scope of [energy] accumulation? What is the financial cost and can it be done without raising the price of electricity? What are the environmental benefits? Is enough land available to accomplish the mission? What changes need to be made to the national conduction network?

"Only after a year of research and consultations with the Finance Ministry, the Environmental Protection Ministry, the Israel Electric Corporation, and with international bodies did we determine this very challenging, but attainable, target," said Steinitz.

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As for the next goal, Steinitz said: "The current achievement, which catapults Israel to the forefront of the world stage in terms of solar energy production, proves that when you work with a vision and conviction, but eschew populism, you can attain difficult goals while preserving energy security and reasonable electricity prices. The next goal is to be in first place in terms of solar energy production, not just among the developed countries but the entire planet."

Steinitz said most of the 80 billion shekel budget will go into solar energy facilities to be built by the private sector. Other costs include upgrading the national grid and investing in energy storage.

By 2026, air pollution is expected to be cut by 93% in comparison with 2015. Under the plan, sunlight will be the source of 90% of the power produced from renewable sources, while other sources such as wind, water, and biomass will supply the remaining 10%.

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The report noted that the advanced testing and the monitoring of patients, as well as the continued efforts to locate carriers as the pandemic was spreading without upending the health care system, helped the Jewish state suffer a low death toll.

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The report states: "The governments of Australia, Austria, Denmark, Germany, Iceland, Israel, New Zealand, and Norway register the highest scores in our index and have performed best in managing the public health emergency caused by the pandemic.

"These countries have so far recorded low numbers of extra deaths during the pandemic, put solid tracking and testing programs in place, and continued to provide healthcare services to non-coronavirus patients. Overall, these countries appear to have succeeded in containing the pandemic because they reacted early and
swiftly. Not all of them introduced stringent lockdowns, but all implemented aggressive testing and tracing programs."

The report continued in describing why the response of these nations noteworthy. "This is a particularly impressive feat, given that in most of these countries over-65s account for a significant share of the population, making them vulnerable to severe coronavirus infection. Overall, these countries appear to have succeeded in containing the pandemic because they reacted early and swiftly. Not all of them introduced stringent lockdowns, but all implemented aggressive testing and tracing programs."

On Sunday, during yet another rally, the curfew was lifted as suddenly as it had been imposed. There was a sense of liberation and relief, of a surreal dream being over and a reality finally setting in. When we walked back from the park to meet friends for a drink, I could not let go of the thought: What kind of reality are we returning to?  

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The Jewish fertility rate hit 3.05 children per woman in 2018, compared to 3.04 for Arab women. Only Israeli citizens were included in the survey.

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Israel's overall fertility rate in 2018 was 3.08 children per woman, down from 3.11 in 2017. The OECD average in 2017 was 1.65.

The CBS also reported that Israel began 2020 with 9,136,000 citizens, of which Jews accounted for 6,772,000 people (74%) and Arabs 1,916,000 million (21%).

In the past decade, Israel's population has grown by 17.8%, and is expected to top 10 million by the end of 2024.

In 2019, 177,000 babies were born in Israel, 34,000 people immigrated to the country, and 45,000 people died.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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"Today, the unemployment rate in Israel stands at around 4%, a very low rate illustrating that unemployment – if not entirely – is 'healthy' unemployment, stemming primarily from people who are transitioning between jobs," the report said.

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Alongside the positive aspects of the report, however, it also indicates that just half of ultra-Orthodox (haredi) men and 38% of women in the Arab sector are employed, while also earning far below the average salary. The employment rate among Ethiopian Israelis is also relatively high at 78% overall (73% for women) – but the average monthly salary is low and stands at around half of the average monthly salary for non-haredi Jewish Israelis.

Meanwhile, although the overwhelming majority of Israelis are employed, their productivity is limited. According to the report, the hourly productivity rate in Israel in 2018 was $35.7 per hour, which is just 74% of the OECD average. This gap has remained steady for the past 17 years without improvement.

The most concerning aspect of the report pertains to Israelis' low aptitude in mathematics, reading-comprehension and problem-solving in a computerized environment. Even among the strongest sector of the population – non-haredi Jews – aptitude in math is below the OECD average. Arab Israelis are at the bottom of the list.

Double the earnings

In terms of job creation, the demand for software programmers, engineers and marketers has seen a considerable spike in the past five years, while the demand for clerical workers, typists and gas station attendants has seen more than a 10% drop. About half of the country's construction workers are from the Arab sector, and in the fields of information and communication technology, which represents a large portion of the Israeli high-tech industry, 92% of those employed are non-haredi Jews. The salaries for these employees are also nearly double the national average monthly salary.

As of 2016, only 0.16% of the national budget is invested in job training and incentives packages used to develop and expand the job market. This figure ranks third from the bottom among OECD countries. In comparison, the OECD average is 0.54%, and Denmark tops the list at 2%.

In response to the report, Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Haim Katz said that his office was "working to close the social gaps and provide the best tools possible to those segments of the population that are more challenged when it comes to finding employment."

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