Operation Shield and Arrow was an extremely impressive success from a tactical military point of view. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) was dealt a severe drubbing, its senior commanders were taken out, its assets damaged and Israel was not made to pay any diplomatic price in return for the eventual cease-fire. The curtain-raiser to the operation was a precision strike involving a focused targeting effort to eliminate three senior PIJ figures, following a decision not to take immediate 'hot-blooded' action but to wait and then exact a much more painful price, based on precision intelligence information. The ability to successfully target an additional three senior PIJ terrorists later on during the operation was an even more impressive achievement, especially as once they realize they are on the 'wanted list' they evidently tend to go to ground.

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This is down to the remarkable professionalism of the IDF, the Israel Security Agency, better known as Shin Bet and IDF Military Intelligence. Israel also demonstrated tremendous resilience in terms of its defensive capabilities, and the Israeli civilian population displayed notable cohesion throughout the entire period of hostilities. In view of the extremely limited objectives of the operation defined by the defense establishment, this was undoubtedly a great military success. The fire has ceased and peace and quiet have returned, at least temporarily. Though the PIJ's image might have been enhanced among all the various organizations violently opposed to Israel, as is the case with anybody to decides to take up arms against the Jewish state, and the PIJ did succeed in disrupting the life of numerous Israelis, these "achievements" were effectively canceled out by the heavy blows it suffered.

Having said that, nobody should be under any illusions. For years now, the State of Israel has been operating without any clear strategy and vision in relation to the Palestinian theater – in view of the familiar challenges and those waiting on the horizon. It is also important to explain to the public, without mincing words, that in all honesty, this limited round of violence that has just ended will not be the last one. The Gaza issue is far from being solved, Hamas continues to bolster its arsenal, and next time we might well have to confront them rather than their smaller sister organization so that the calm that we have obtained is clearly only a temporary one. During this operation, Israel fought against the weaker terrorist organization among the members of the 'Palestinian resistance front', and Hamas incurred no damage by sitting on the fence, on the contrary, it actually gained in strength as a result of this. In practice, on the strategic level, Operation Shield and Arrow has changed absolutely nothing.

Israel continues to operate without any master plan relating to the Palestinian theater as it refrains from making any clear decision as to where it is headed. One option is to decide that we seek separation from the Palestinian entity. In this case, the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Fatah, despite their numerous drawbacks, are clearly a much preferable option to Hamas (an organization with whom there is absolutely no hope of ever engaging in any diplomatic peace process). On the other hand, another option, which on occasions the policymakers in Israel appear to be proponents of, is that of sitting idly by. This approach involves Israel's continued role as a spectator watching from the sidelines the complete dismantling of the PA (whose great weakness was clearly demonstrated in the current operation as it proved to be completely irrelevant) along with de-facto recognition of Hamas as the sovereign power in the Gaza Strip. Selection of the second option leads to that uneasy feeling among large parts of the Israeli public after each round of violence in the Gaza Strip – if Hamas is a partner, then there is only a limited extent of damage that it can be made to incur, and the desire to preserve it as some form of "go-to" entity to address issues is clear.

The decision not to embroil Hamas in this last round of violence was the correct decision, both tactically and strategically. On the tactical level – Israel focused its opening strike on the PIJ and by doing so it succeeded in attaining its objective. Having Hamas enter the fray would only have considerably extended the fighting for no reason, and without the advantage of taking the initiative, the outcome of the whole effort would most probably have been extremely disappointing. On the strategic level – if Israel seeks to effect a genuine, fundamental change in the Palestinian theater, then it is necessary to plan another operation with a completely different objective, and not to expand a limited operation in the middle of an ongoing military campaign, as a result of being drawn in following either tactical achievements or failures. This could well lead to a dangerous tailspin that could easily get out of control.

The tension is expected to accompany us during the days ahead too, and especially this Thursday, Jerusalem Day. The good news is that the operation has released some of the air out of the balloon on the other side, and there doesn't appear to be a strong desire there for any further destruction or additional targeting of its leaders. On the other hand, Jerusalem Day does tend to serve as one of the most volatile and incendiary catalysts in the Middle East – the religious Palestinian narrative, Jerusalem, the Temple Mount, and the ensuing option of all Israel's enemy theaters joining forces. The policymakers in Israel are charged with the heavy responsibility of acting prudently and with great sensitivity on and around this special day.

It is imperative to prevent any provocations in those locations that are known to be volatile, to avoid, as far as possible, any problematic, inflammatory pictures emerging from the Temple Mount, to bolster the police force, and to carefully coordinate the events with the Jordanian-appointed Waqf (responsible for administration of the Muslim holy sites on the Temple Mount). It's not that we cannot deal with any renewed escalation or a multi-theater incident, but we really have no interest in doing so. Above all – Israel must take the initiative and the pro-active approach and shift it from the tactical military level to the strategic diplomatic plane, so that it will be able to dictate its own fate, from a position of strength rather than merely treading water and being sucked in after a string of random incidents.

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Israel entered the latest Gaza campaign almost without a choice – having come under intense rocket fire from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and following a period of perceived erosion in deterrence. The assassination of the senior PIJ leaders in the first hours of the operation achieved its overarching objective.

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The combination of Israelis' stamina and the Iron Dome managed to frustrate the PIJ's efforts to change the balance of power in its favor. However, Operation Arrow and Shield was not designed to fundamentally change the situation in Gaza but only to bring about another period of relative calm. 

To truly transform the situation, Israel would have to carry out a major and protracted operation deep inside Gaza. The cost might not be worth it. The alternative to such a campaign is the repeated cycles Israel and the Palestinians engage in. The drawbacks are clear and plenty, but if we want to make the most of those rounds of hostilities we have to use the relative periods of calm they provide to engage in a methodic, low-profile campaign to stop the terrorists from getting more powerful. 

When the ceasefire is declared for the umpteenth time, the senior leadership of Hamas and PIJ always emerge from their hideouts, having been spared from the "martyrs list" of the previous rounds. They tour the ruins and take pictures with the flag of their organizations, waxing lyrical on how they managed to withstand the force of the Zionist enemy and how "our fighters dealt a crushing blow that generated fear all over." 

As they engage in the war on the hearts and minds, their military commanders will try to learn the lessons from the past round and find replacements to fill in the ranks of the organization and to build more strength for the next outbreak of hostilities. Meanwhile, without having to wait for orders, operations will resume in one of the areas that are key to the success of terrorist organizations: the weapon manufacturing disposition. 

The efforts to manufacture weapons will increase and the pace will accelerate in order to replenish the stockpiles and prepare for the next round. The goal: more rocket fire that will reach farther and be more lethal and precise. Most of the weapons and munitions used against Israel are indigenously made in Gaza using material and means that get imported – either via Israel or from Egypt. In some cases, these are dual-use imports that could be used for both civilian and military purposes. Israel allows their transfer to Gaza for legitimate usage but then they are seized by terrorist organizations and end up in the local arms manufacturing workshops. 

Israel's policy on Gaza has to strike a balance between the two competing interests. On the hand, Israel wants to improve Gazans' well-being and address their humanitarian concerns, in part because this would make it clear that they would have a lot to lose if they engage in conflict. That is why it allows such material to enter. On the other hand, it wants to make it harder for terrorists to get powerful and that is why it seeks to prevent material that boosts their capabilities.

But the decision-making process in this regard is complex and could lead to Israel preferring the immediate calm over the long-term calculus that seeks to deny terrorists weapons. This could be because of the many challenges this balancing act presents: First, fighting the terrorists often appears to be an effort that is carried out in vain because they already have so many arms. Second, it is hard to truly monitor what manages to enter the area. Third, because of the boiling frog syndrome: You don't feel an urgency when things go up by one notch at a time in moderation. The fourth is that sometimes there is a clear tendency to fall in love with the relative calm, which dovetails with the desire to minimize the amount of energy you use on various fronts. 

Precisely because of this, the ceasefire should come with stringent conditions as well as a mechanism to monitor the terrorists' buildup and to stop it. We must set a clear goal for our security forces that they must stop the buildup as well as disrupt it, making it a major objective for the "campaign between the wars." They must be told to present a comprehensive plan that would have clear and methodic measures of success. 

Israel must also impose stricter conditions on issuing permits for the import into Gaza of dual-usage raw materials and other substances and demand that Egypt adopts a similar policy on its border with Gaza. Israel must also devise a comprehensive plan to target the terrorist arms manufacturing infrastructure. It must be designed in a way that meets the economic needs of Gaza and is commensurate with the overall arrangements Israel agreed to, and it must have clear benchmarks and take advantage of opportunities that come up to strike the relevant assets. 

Calm is essential if we want to focus on other challenges and lead a healthy and normal life, as well as grow and thrive. The organizations in Gaza need it in order to improve their capabilities for the next conflict. The more we use those lulls to prevent their amassing of strength in Gaza, the longer those lulls will be and the less intense the hostilities are when they break.

Meir Ben Shabbat is head of the Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy, in Jerusalem. He served as Israel's national security advisor and head of the National Security Council between 2017 and 2021, and prior to that for 30 years in the General Security Service (the Shin Be security agency or "Shabak").

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Palestinian terrorists fired a rocket into southern Israel on Sunday, prompting the Israeli Air Force planes to hit back. The launch on Sunday comes less than 24 hours after a ceasefire was reached between Israel and the Islamic Jihad group in the Gaza Strip. The army said the rocket set off air-raid sirens in southern Israel but landed in an open area. Palestinians said the rocket launch was unintended and blamed it on technical failure.

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 A fragile ceasefire between Israeli forces and Palestinian groups in the Gaza Strip had appeared to be holding on Sunday after a five-day clash that killed 33 Palestinians and two Israelis. The latest round of Gaza fighting was sparked Tuesday when Israeli jets killed three top commanders from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group in response to earlier rocket launches from Gaza. Those killings set off a barrage of fire and the conflagration threatened to drag the region into another all-out war until an Egyptian-brokered ceasefire took hold late Saturday.

While the calm appeared to bring a sense of relief to millions of Israelis who had been largely confined to bomb shelters in recent days, the agreement did nothing to address the underlying issues that have fueled numerous rounds of fighting between Israel and Palestinian groups in the Gaza Strip over the years. Saturday's deal did not address many of the causes of the repeated fighting, including the Gaza border, the large arsenals of weapons possessed by Hamas and PIJ, as well as the linkage to the West Bank and east Jerusalem.

Gaza's main cargo crossing with Israel reopened Sunday after warnings that keeping it closed would force Gaza's power plant to shut down. Israel was gradually lifting restrictions on residents in southern Israel, which had borne the brunt of the rocket fire. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the targeted attacks on the terrorists' hideouts would reverberate around the region. "Israel's enemies in Gaza and much farther than Gaza know that even if they try to hide, we are able and prepared to reach them at any time," he told a meeting of his Cabinet. Israel says it does its utmost to avoid harming civilians in its strikes and says terrorists operate from within the territory's densely populated areas to fire rockets indiscriminately at Israeli communities.

Throughout the fighting, Israel's repeated airstrikes targeting PIJ and its command centers and rocket-launching sites showed no signs of stopping the rocket fire, prompting PIJ to declare victory and sending cheering Palestinians out into the streets late Saturday. The Israeli military reported over 1,400 launches throughout the fighting, with some rockets reaching as far as the Tel Aviv and Jerusalem areas. Israeli jets struck more than 400 targets, according to a preliminary military tally, which also showed about a fifth of the rockets were misfired and landed in Gaza, while most of the rest were either intercepted or landed in open areas.

The more powerful Hamas has praised PIJ's strikes but remained on the sidelines during the latest round of fighting, limiting the scope of the conflict. As the de facto government held responsible for the abysmal conditions in the blockaded Gaza Strip, Hamas has recently tried to keep a lid on its conflict with Israel. PIJ, on the other hand, a more ideological and unruly group wedded to violence, has taken the lead in the past few rounds of fighting with Israel.

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The ceasefire, which went into effect last night, was in Israel's clear interest, and it brings a successful operation to an end – admittedly it achieved limited goals and targets, but Israel had the upper hand.

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The Israeli rationale for ending the operation right now is that the objectives of the operation have been fully achieved. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) suffered a severe blow during the first days of the attack. Its entire operational military elite has been eliminated, and their successors are young and inexperienced commanders who will need time to stabilize their positions. The PIJ launched more than 1,000 rockets toward Israel but did not cause much damage. On the other hand, it paid dearly by seeing major damage inflicted on its military facilities – mainly its buildup capacity, ammunition storages, and rocket launch pits. Israel responded without harming too many noncombatants while managing to leave Hamas and other members of the Iranian axis out of the operation.

Hamas also played a part

These gains could have been eroded if the operation had dragged on. The number of high-quality targets would have decreased, and the chance of making a mistake would have increased (as well as the operational success of the PIJ, by firing rockets or an antitank missile that pinpointed a fleeting target). As time passed Hamas would have been pushed into a corner; now it is benefiting from the fact that the status of the PIJ has been eroded – i.e., the internal military challenge it is facing has weakened – but, the continued closing of the border crossings, the prevention of passing fuel into the Gaza Strip and stopping workers coming into Israel, would have exerted pressure on the organization from the local population to find a solution to the closure.

To avoid this situation, Hamas also worked behind the scenes to finalize the ceasefire. The negotiations, conducted through Egyptian mediation from the moment the escalation started out with the elimination of the three senior members of the PIJ – were already close to an agreement several times in recent days, but got stuck again and again due to the parties insisting on certain wording.

A reasonable formula

The one who raised difficulties from the side of the PIJ was the organization's leader,  Ziad al-Nakhalah. From his location in Beirut, and with his Iranian sponsor breathing down his neck, Nakhalah demanded that Israel agree to stop the assassinations. Israel refused to commit to this publicly and demanded that the organization commit to stop launching rockets. The Egyptians suggested that the parties commit to this mutual agreement: stop the killings by Israel and rocket fire from the PIJ, with Cairo guaranteeing that the agreement is upheld.

Israel's security establishment considered this a reasonable equation that would allow them to end hostilities. In any case, Israel eliminated those who it had targeted in this operation, and if the PIJ refrains from firing in the future, Israel will have no reason to kill its people.

On the other hand, if they take action again, Israel will be unbound to its part of the agreement. If the parties continued to insist on the wording, the shooting would have continued as well, resulting in additional casualties and even a major unintended event that would make it difficult to stop the fighting.

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The cessation of hostilities at this time will ensure, almost certainly, that Jerusalem Day will pass quietly this week. In recent years, Hamas managed to increase tensions around this day under the false pretense that the Al-Aqsa Mosque was in danger, and it is likely that it would have tried to do so this year as well. However, Operation Shield and Arrow proved once again that Hamas is not interested in fighting, and it is doubtful if it will drag Gaza into another military campaign – bloodier and even more violent – just after the current round had ended.

Therefore, from the moment the agreement was reached and the firing ceased, we will return to normal routine, and the residents of the Gaza area are guaranteed a period of quiet, subject to the length of time Israel will be able to maintain its deterrence against Gaza.

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Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist group in the Gaza Strip agreed to an Egyptian-brokered cease-fire late Saturday, ending five days of intense fighting.

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The Egyptian-brokered cease-fire took effect just after 10 p.m., with a last-minute burst of rocket fire and Israeli airstrikes stretching several minutes past the deadline announced by Egypt.

While the calm brought a sense of relief to Gaza's more than 2 million people and hundreds of thousands of Israelis who had been confined to bomb shelters in recent days, the agreement did nothing to address the underlying issues that have fueled numerous rounds of fighting between Israel and Palestinian terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip.

Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi warned that Israel would not let the Palestinian violations of the truce go unanswered.

"Calm will be met with calm, but if Israel is attacked or threatened  – it will continue to do anything it has to do to defend itself," Hanegbi said, adding that Israel thanked Egypt for its mediation efforts.

Tensions could quickly resume next week when Israel holds a contentious march through a main Palestinian thoroughfare in Jerusalem's Old City. in the annual Flag March to mark the liberation of the city during the Six-Day War.

Still, as the truce took hold, the deafening whooshes of outgoing rockets and booms of Israeli airstrikes was replaced by the honking of cars in Gaza. Streets that had been desolate in recent days quickly teemed with people reveling in the ceasefire, waving Palestinian flags and flashing victory signs from speeding vehicles. Amid the celebration, a fruit vendor used a loudspeaker, enthusiastically promoting his supply of bananas.

PIJ leader Mohamad al-Hindi had told the Al Kahera Wal Nas channel that the Egyptian-brokered deal would go into effect at 10 p.m. local time (1900 GMT). "Now, this agreement has been reached thanks to continuous Egyptian effort. We appreciate this effort," he said.

There was no Israeli comment on the cease-fire announcement. But the Egyptian station had earlier reported a deal was imminent. Egypt frequently acts as a broker between Israel and Palestinian terrorist groups in Gaza.

The latest violence erupted Tuesday when Israeli airstrikes killed three senior PIJ commanders. Israel said the airstrikes were in response to a heavy burst of rocket fire the previous week and that its attacks have been focused on PIJ targets. But residents in Gaza said homes of people uninvolved in fighting also had been struck.

Israel and Palestinian terrorists unleashed salvos of fire for a fifth day on Saturday, with the PIJ group launching dozens more rockets and the Israeli military pounding targets inside the Gaza Strip and vowing to step up its campaign.

The first Israeli fatality was on Thursday when a rocket hit a home in Rehovot. On Saturday, Shrapnel from a Palestinian rocket that slammed into an agricultural community in Israel's southern Negev desert killed a Palestinian laborer who had been working inside Israel, Israeli defense officials said. A second Palestinian laborer was badly wounded. There were no immediate reports of casualties Saturday from Israeli airstrikes on Gaza, where so far 34 Palestinians have been killed, according to Palestinian health officials. Over 147 have been wounded.

Video: IDF Spokesperson's Unit / Attack on a launching site after mortar fire on Israel

In a reminder of the combustible situation in the West Bank, the Israeli military raided the Balata refugee camp near the northern city of Nablus, sparking a firefight that killed two Palestinians. In a separate incident near the northern city of Jenin, Israeli police said they shot and killed a suspected Palestinian assailant who ran toward soldiers wielding a knife.

Earlier on Saturday, hopes for a cease-fire between Israel and the PIJ  were initially seen as fading as the Israeli military Saturday bombed an apartment belonging to PIJ commander Mohammed Abu Al Atta, among other targets including rocket launchers, it said.

PIJ fired several barrages of rockets toward southern Israel, where tens of thousands of Israelis were instructed to remain close to safe rooms and bomb shelters. Hundreds of residents near the border were evacuated to hotels farther north.

PIJ promised a further onslaught. "As assassinations and the bombing of apartments and safe houses continue, the Palestinian resistance will renew its rocket fire ... to emphasize the continuation of the confrontation," the group said. Mortar shells fired by Palestinian terrorists crashed into the Erez crossing between Gaza and Israel, the Israeli civil defense body said, sharing footage of a fiery explosion at the main passageway into Israel.

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Operation Shield and Arrow continued Friday as Israeli warplanes struck terror targets in Gaza and terrorists fired more rockets from the strip.

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There were no immediate reports of casualties on either side Friday, as foreign mediators pressed ahead with efforts to reach a ceasefire. On Thursday, a 70-year-old man was killed when a rocket hit a residential building in Rehovot. Thirty-one Palestinians have also been killed in the current round of conflict, including from misfired Palestinian missiles.

The IDF said its warplanes struck Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket launchers. Gaza residents reported explosions in farms near the southern city of Rafah. A burst of rocket fire from the Gaza Strip sent air raid sirens wailing near Israel's southern border Friday, breaking a 12-hour lull that had raised hopes that Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations could soon be able to broker a ceasefire. An air raid also sounded in the Jerusalem area.

A senior Israeli official told Israel Hayom that truce talks were suspended on Friday despite renewed optimism late Thursday and early in the morning after rocket fire stopped for several hours before being renewed toward noon.

"Even prior to the rocket fire on Jerusalem, we had already decided after the [Friday] volley on the Gaza-area communities that we will stop the ceasefire talks and respond forcefully to the PIJ's action." The official said that the Israeli response to the recent rocket fire "will be significant, and if escalation is warranted, we will do so." The official noted that "Jerusalem is just like Tel Aviv and Sderot – we do not differentiate, and that is why decided to stop the talks and continue the strikes because of their attacks on the south."

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KKL-JNF established a special situation room to aid residents of southern Israel while the IDF is conducting Operation Shield and Arrow in the Gaza Strip.

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The situation room is part of a broad support system offered to front-line residents, which includes KKL-JNF instructors deployed to municipal shelters to conduct entertainment activities for families taking shelter, a bus network transporting families to activities in northern Israel at no charge, as well as  KKL-JNF Field Centers at Nes Harim, Lavi, Tzipori, and Shuni, that have opened their doors to residents of the Western Negev free of charge and are now filling up with families wanting to enjoy some peace and quiet.

Accommodation at Field Centers is offered based on availability with advance telephone reservation at 1-800-250-250.

"KKL-JNF embraces the residents of the Western Negev in times of peace and also now, in times of emergency," KKL-JNF Chair Yifat Ovadia-Luski said. "KKL-JNF staff and facilities have been made available for Western Negev residents. Now is the time for solidarity. The situation room will continue operating as long as needed; we will continue to offer support and reach any place where the people of southern Israel require support."

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In the shadow of the escalation in Gaza, Iran is exerting pressure on Hamas (and perhaps also on Hezbollah) to respond harshly to extract a price for Israel's operation against the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. This is part of Iran's ongoing effort to drag Israel into a multi-theater campaign while leaving itself out of a direct confrontation at this stage.

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Iran continues to violate all the agreements it signed: It infringes on human rights in Iran and Ukraine; it supports Russia in its war against Ukraine; it funds terrorist organizations in Lebanon, Syria, Judea and Samaria, and around the world, while drawing closer to Saudi Arabia and Syria. Nonetheless, there are still those in the United States, together with the EU, who yet again dare to float the prospect of having a partial nuclear deal.

On the absurdity of a partial and faulty nuclear deal (called "less for less", but it is really "much more for much less") I wrote many times in the past. It looks like the Iranians are (again) doing Israel's bidding by refusing to accept the deal, even though such a deal would at most give the West a delay of a few weeks or months until Iran obtains enough fissile material for a bomb, and at the same time will lead to extensive sanction relief. This will allow the regime to recover economically and continue funding and supporting terrorism. Under an agreement signed by the superpowers, including the United States, it will also be very difficult for Israel to attack Iran on its own.

There is no doubt that Iran has been, at least partially, behind almost all recent attacks on Israel in the south, in the north, and in the east, through Hamas, Hezbollah, and its forces in Syria. Its goal is to push Israel into a confrontation on four or even five fronts: Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, Judea and Samaria, and Jerusalem.

Now is the time to implement one of the major changes in Israel's national security strategy that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began in 2017-2018 – by punishing not only those who attack Israel directly, as the IDF and Shin Bet have done in recent days against the PIJ in Gaza – but also the actors who fund and send them under the expectation that they would be treated with impunity: i.e. Iran. The punishment does not have to be immediate or direct, as this could have the region spiral into all-out war. There are many ways to punish and weaken Iran indirectly, including from the inside by, for example, supporting the protesters taking to the streets of the Islamic Republic.

The Israeli campaign against Iran will probably reach a direct and broad confrontation in the upcoming years. Israel should act wisely by preparing for such a scenario and exploiting the regional conflicts – most of which were launched by Iran or backed by it – and the internal conflicts in Iran, as a tool to weaken Tehran in the long run and in the run-up for a broader clash.

Iran has been preparing for a wider conflict for many years. One of the main tools of the Iranian doctrine is dramatically shoring up its capabilities around Israel with weapons and fighters that would be ready, when necessary, to join the overall effort against Israel.

In Lebanon, Iran is building Hezbollah as its main force for a wider conflagration with Israel. Iran has armed the organization with more than 150,000 statistical missiles of various ranges, anti-tank missiles, UAVs and drones, intelligence capabilities, and other means. In recent years, the main effort has been concentrated on building a PGM (precision-guided munition) arsenal by converting some of the statistical missiles and by manufacturing others, including lately on Lebanese soil. The PGMs may serve as a game-changing weapon in a future campaign, Therefore, Israel is waging an ongoing and broad campaign to prevent or at least reduce this threat, as part of the "campaign between wars".

In Syria, Iran has in recent years – under the cover of the civil war and through the assistance it gives to Bashar Assad's regime – tried to create capabilities that mimic those it has in Lebanon. Iran is trying to establish itself in Syria by building a significant military force based on the Shiite militias by transferring and manufacturing PGMs for Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran is also arming the Syrian army with advanced weapons to replenish the weapons Assad used during the civil war and the weapons destroyed by alleged Israeli air strikes. Iran has recently begun arming the Syrians with air defense systems to replace the Russian systems transferred to Ukraine due to the new Russian priorities.

In Gaza and Judea and Samaria, Iran massively and continuously supports Hamas and PIJ, with advanced armaments and a regular budget, and encourages them to attack Israel. Some of the capabilities are indeed intended for the ongoing conflicts with Israel, but the real mission is to support a future confrontation with Israel. That is why the Iranians are sometimes furious with Hezbollah when some of the advanced munitions that Tehran supplies for its purposes get used by the organization in a confrontation with Israel whose timing had not been coordinated with Iran.

Israel must "exploit" the regional conflicts to frustrate Iran's entrenchment efforts at a much larger scale, especially by destroying the arsenals and its various capabilities to manufacture and convert munitions in order to prevent their use in the future. The main efforts should be vis-à-vis the warehouse and the PGMs capabilities in Lebanon, but also vis-à-vis Syria and Gaza.

At the same time, Israel must prevent Iran (economically and practically) from rearming its proxies after their weapons will be destroyed. To do it effectively, Israel must pressure Washington, in coordination with the Gulf states, to deal with all three components of the Iranian nuclear program – fissile material, weaponization (which should be now the main effort), and the means of delivery – and at the same time create maximum economic pressure and a credible military threat.

A partial and weak nuclear deal will send a false signal to Iran (and to the markets) that the West will agree to everything Iran did and will do. Israel will be left alone again, and it will be very difficult to take out the nuclear program under an agreement. In addition, any agreement will give Iran windfall revenues, allowing the regime to rehabilitate its economy, and continue arming its proxies around the region while reducing the effectiveness of Israeli operations to destroy their capabilities.

Israel should continue improving its military capabilities toward a broad future confrontation with Iran, alongside building other capabilities. It's time to change Israel's thinking and take the initiative, as has been the case in recent days in Gaza. A plan must be built to turn lemons into lemonade by having Iran's plan of a multi-front confrontation become a double-edged sword, and by severely undermining their efforts to entrench themselves in the region and arm their proxies. The paradigm shift will also strengthen Israel's standing in the region, including the efforts to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, despite the agreement it recently signed with Iran, under the auspices of China.

Brigadier General (res.) Jacob Nagel is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a visiting professor at the Technion's Faculty of Aerospace Engineering. He previously served as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's national security advisor and head of the National Security Council (acting).

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Police and security forces are working to crack down on incitement to violence, especially ahead of the Jerusalem Day flag march next week, Israel Hayom has learned. 

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According to law enforcement officials, terror groups in the Gaza Strip and the Palestinian Authority are using social media to spread fake news about the IDF's Operation Shield and Arrow in an effort to incite Arab Israelis to riot.

"Behind the scenes, there is a national effort to curb and deal with incitement to terrorism," one source said. The terrorists seek to "enflame the region and push Arab Israelis to demonstrate and protest, which is why our mission is to maintain calm." 

The efforts are led by a special team in charge of dealing with incitement to terrorism and violence, which was established by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir shortly after taking office. It includes officers of the police, the State Attorney's Office, and the Shin Bet security agency. 

Since its establishment just a few months ago, it has already identified 372 posts, of which 163 included incitement to terrorism. Sixty-three investigations were launched and 18 individuals were arrested, against five of whom indictments have already been filed. 

Terror groups are essentially looking for a repeat of Operation Guardian of the Walls when the Israeli military not only had to deal with an escalation in Gaza but Israel's mixed cities as well. 

Violent riots by Arab Israelis led to nighttime curfews, such as in the mixed city of Lod, and even lynches against Jews, which led to the death of one Israeli. 

Again, "we see that the intention is to harness Arabs Israelis and take them out to demonstrate or confront the security forces," a senior police officer told Israel Hayom. 

He said efforts to counter fake and inciting information have already proved successful. "This worked well during Ramadan, and our explanatory videos against the terror organizations were distributed throughout the entire Middle East." 

Ben-Gvir also addressed the matter on Thursday, saying, "The war on incitement to terrorism is always important, all the more so on days like this, such as Jerusalem Day, when incitement is increased." 

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The Israel Defense Forces canceled an airstrike in the Gaza Strip overnight Thursday after several children were detected in the vicinity of the terror target.

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In a video posted on the IDF's official Twitter page, a fighter can be heard saying in Hebrew, "There is a child here outside. 40 meters. Two. Hold fire. Hold fire."

The IDF Spokesperson's Unit routinely publishes footage of airstrikes, only this time, instead of an explosion, the military said it canceled the bombing due to the presence of civilians.

Video: IDF Spokesperson's Unit

Considered the most moral army in the world, the IDF takes extensive measures to minimize collateral damage and is known for its so-called "roof knocking" technique that alerts inhabitants of an incoming attack ahead of time, giving them the chance to flee.

Meanwhile, four Palestinian civilians, including a 10-year-old girl and two 16-year-old boys, were killed in Gaza due to a missile launched by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad that landed within the strip.

The IDF said that for every four missile launched, one fails to cross into Israeli territory.

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