As the 2024 presidential race enters its final months, Vice President Kamala Harris and Former President Donald Trump are urging supporters to take recent polls with a grain of salt, albeit for contrasting reasons.

According to Fox News reports, Harris is preaching caution despite a surge in fundraising and polling numbers since replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee six weeks ago. Trump, on the other hand, has seen his momentum slow but remains confident, citing his history of outperforming poll predictions, particularly during his 2016 campaign.

"This is going to be a tight race until the very end," Harris told a packed arena in Savannah, Georgia, one of seven crucial battleground states likely to determine the election's outcome. Her comments came after the release of several polls, including new surveys from Fox News, indicating a margin-of-error race in key swing states and a slight edge for Harris in national polls.

Despite these encouraging numbers, the vice president cautioned her supporters, "Let's not pay too much attention to the polls because we are running as the underdog." She added, "We have some hard work ahead of us. But we like hard work. Hard work is good work. And with your help, we are going to win this November."

Trump, meanwhile, has dismissed Harris's polling bump and emphasized his own standing. In a recent interview with Martha MacCallum on the Fox News Channel, he asserted, "She's not having success. I'm having success. I'm doing great with the Hispanic voters. I'm doing great with Black men. I'm doing great with women. We're doing very well in the polls."

2024 North Carolina GE:

Harris 50%
Trump 50%

.@ActiVoteUS, 400 LV, 8/6-31https://t.co/qGA2k8wd83

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 1, 2024

The former president's confidence comes despite recent polls showing a tightening race. However, Trump's campaign often points to his 2016 performance, where he defied many pollsters' predictions to win the presidency. Harris' caution message resonates with many Democratic strategists who remember the upset of 2016 and are wary of complacency.

With less than three months until Election Day, both campaigns are ramping up their efforts, recognizing that every vote will count in what promises to be a closely contested election.

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We will never know for sure how much of a part polls played in shaping Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's policies these past few months. We can only guess that it was a considerable one. His predecessors – Ariel Sharon, Ehud Olmert, and Ehud Barak – were "guilty" of the same thing. However, Israel's prime ministers were far less influenced by polling, simply because the political poll we know nowadays would have seemed like some futuristic fiction back then. 

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Election polls also have a negative effect on how we, the voters, behave, even as we cast our ballots. Polls do more than portray a situation – they create it. It doesn't matter how many times pollsters like Mano Geva or Camil Fuchs emphasize that their results merely reflect a given situation. We, the public, have made polls into forecasts – a modern-day crystal ball. 

In the modern era, fewer and fewer people are voting according to their values, interests, or worldviews. Many follow the polls and vote strategically. Some jump on the bandwagon of the predicted "winner." Others abandon parties whose values they identify with because polls give them a slim chance, or opt to bolster parties that appear as the underdog. Of course, there are also those who pick their parties based on its projected weight in a "bloc." 

The parties themselves, and their leaders, allow the polls to drag them into this shallow discourse, and sometimes the math of the polls guides them, making positions and agendas marginal. Even the candidates for each list are sometimes chosen based on their electability alone, and the main question is – how many votes is each candidate "worth"? Theoretically -- and in practice – the "electable" candidate can be untalented and unsuccessful, but the moment a polls shows that he or she attracts votes – they will be given preference on the party list over people more capable but less electable than they are. 

The surprise of 19 

In recent years, polls have been the basis of party splits or partnerships. Recent notable examples include Blue and White and the decision by people such as Moshe Ya'alon, Ofer Shelach, or Ron Huldai to run as heads of their own parties, then drop out a short time later. The biggest weakness of polls is their short shelf life, which leads to short-term political thinking that leaves the long term out of the planning process. Decision makers now give ideology and worldviews a much more modest place, and in the world of the voters, ideas, plans, and views are given much less space, as well. Too much weight is given to who will win or lose and by how much, and where we, the voters, fall on the axis of their chances. In the political horse race that the media and the public have become addicted to, polls are the track, parties are the horses, and we are the cheering crowd, often without thinking. 

This trips us up twofold: one time, when we abandon our true values because a poll leads us astray, and again when we do so based on a poll that is biased or incorrect and untrustworthy. Over time, polls have not been particularly accurate in predicting election results. 

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Only two years ago, Yishai Peleg ran an analysis of election polls spanning the years 1981-2015 for the weekly Makor Rishon. It turned out that the polls were many seats off from the real results of the elections in those years, getting an average of 22.7 seats wrong per campaign. 

The most famous mistakes were about New Right in the campaign for the 21st Knesset, when not a single poll predicted that the party would fail to make it over the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25%. Polls also predicted that Isaac Herzog, who was head of the Labor Party in 2015, would beat the Likud by three seats. He lost by six. No poll predicted the success of Yesh Atid in 2013, when the party won 19 seats. In the March 2020 election, the last poll published by Channel 13 News predicted a tie between Blue and White and the Likud, but the Likud won three seats more. In the September 2019 election, most polls gave Likud the edge over Blue and White, but the opposite happened. There are many other examples. 

We must cut off the polls earlier 

Along with being held in thrall by the polls, the public, despite many reminders, refuses to look at their inherent weaknesses. Researchers such as Professor Gabi WEiman have been pointing out for years that the poll is an inaccurate compass, with entire sectors such as the Haredim, Arabs, new immigrants, and soldiers, going unrepresented. Many, sometimes 70%, of potential respondents aren't willing to answer, so they aren't represented either, and among the respondents, one-fourth to one-third say they haven't decided, that they are deliberating, or do not know for whom they will vote. Pollsters do not inform the public how these responses are weighted in the results. In other cases, respondents – for various reasons – lie to pollsters and intentionally dupe them. Top Israeli pollster Dr. Mina Zemach has suffered from this for years. 

People who have followed polls over the year know that often, the questions are leading. Or as Nobel Prize laureate Ronald Coase, a British economist put it, "If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything." Often, the identity of the person who orders the poll influences its results. About 10 years ago, two polls were published days apart from one another. In the first, ordered by a "right-wing" official, only 41% of respondents expressed faith in the court system, while in the second, ordered by the universities of Beersheba and Haifa, 60% of respondents trusted the courts. 

Recently, when the issue of an Israeli "annexation" was up for discussion, a poll by the movement Commanders for Israel's Security, which supports the two-state solution, showed that only 26% of respondents supported a partial annexation of Judea and Samaria. But another poll conducted by the Guttman Center at the Israel Democracy Institute (now renamed the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research) showed support reaching 50%. Large gaps were also seen in polls about the future of the Golan Heights, depending on who commissioned them. In general, the discrepancies can be explained by the wording of the questions, which to a large extent prompts different replies. 

In the legendary TV series "Yes, Prime Minister," Permanent Secretary for the Department of Administrative Affairs, Sir Humphrey Appleby, once demonstrated how the public, through five "correct" questions, could be shown to oppose mandatory conscription. The goal of the exercise was to overshadow another poll in which 64% of respondents had answered "incorrect questions" and come out in support of the draft. Reality, it turns out, isn't far off. 

In Spain, France, Belgium, and Italy, polls stop being published five, seven, 14, or 15 days prior to an election. In Israel, polls can run until three days before Election Day. The public and media's addiction to polls and the fact that polls don't only predict results, but create them, obligates us to decide on a longer poll-free period before we go to the polls. 

It won't solve the problem, but it will make the public's vote a little cleaner and truer.  

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Will the March 23 Knesset election be just a stop on the way to a 5^th election? A Channel 13 poll published Thursday showed no change in the balance between the right and left-wing blocs, and indicated that if the election were held right now, neither side would be able to form a government.

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The poll showed the Likud dropping one seat to 27. Yesh Atid under Yair Lapid was projected to win 18 seats. The party projected to win the third-largest number of seats was New Hope, under former Likud minister Gideon Sa'ar (13).

Naftali Bennett's Yamina party was projected to win 11 seats, followed by the Joint Arab List (without Ra'am), with a projected eight seats. MK Mansour Abbas' Ra'am party, running independently, was projected to make it past the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25% and win four seats.

The ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism were projected to win seven seats apiece, and the secular Yisrael Beytenu and Labor parties were each projected to win six seats, the poll showed.

The poll predicted five seats for Meretz, and four seats for Defense Minister Benny Gantz's Blue and White party – putting it barely above the minimum threshold.

The same number of seats, four, were also projected for the far-right Religious Zionist party.

According to the poll, the bloc of parties seeking to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would secure 60 seats, and the pro-Netanyahu bloc would win 45 seats. Yamina with its projected 11 seats, was not included in either bloc.

When asked who was best qualified to serve as prime minister, 37% of respondents picked Netanyahu. Another 21% picked Lapid, 14% picked Sa'ar, and only 9% said Bennett was the most qualified candidate to serve as prime minister.

When asked which candidate other than Netanyahu they would like to see as prime minister, most (25%) said Lapid, followed by Bennett (20%), and then Sa'ar (18%). Over one-fourth (27%) said "none of the above."

Most respondents said they thought that Bennett would join the Netanyahu bloc after the election – 59% said they expected he would, and 19% said they did not expect Bennett to join a Netanyahu government.

The Channel 13 poll was conducted in conjunction with Professor Camil Fuchs on Thursday, Feb. 25. It polled a representative sample of 603 Jewish and 184 Arab residents of Israel. It had a margin of error of 3.5%.

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If Israeli elections were held today, former Defense Minister Naftali Bennett's Yamina party would surge to 25 parliament seats, just three behind the Likud, a new poll published by i24NEWS on Monday night revealed.

The right-wing politician has been breathing down Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's neck in recent months, as polls indicate growing dissatisfaction with the ruling party's conduct during the coronavirus pandemic.

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Bennett's colleague and former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked stressed this week that her party's leader "should be the next prime minister."

Answering a direct question who is most fit to serve as the Israeli premier, 29% replied that Netanyahu should be the prime minister, with Bennett coming in second with 19%.

And while the race between the Likud and Yamina tightens, the right-wing bloc surged to 70 mandates, leaving the center-left far behind with 33 seats.

Opposition Leader Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party gained 15 seats, according to the poll, with Defense Minister and Alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz's Blue and White retrieving some of its popularity loss with 12 seats.

Left-wing party Meretz polled with six seats, and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beytenu party closed the list with five.

This article was first published by i24NEWS.

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There's nothing new in the west. As of press time, Arizona and Nevada were still counting votes, and a few days after the election, Americans still don't know who won the 2020 presidential race.

Democratic challenger Joe Biden was closer to the White House after scooping up two Midwestern states – Wisconsin and Michigan – and was at 264 electoral votes (253 without Arizona, on which the news networks are in disagreement), but it seems that the uncertainty is enormous and the leads are tiny. A fitting end to a year that was all twists and turns.

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Trump, who has 214 electoral votes, knows there is only one way he can win, and that hangs on one state: Pennsylvania. Without the Keystone State, all the other states in play are irrelevant, unless a state that was already declared blue miraculously changes color.

Trump also knows that in the battle for public opinion, he has to go with the momentum. Just as the George W. Bush camp dictated the agenda in the Florida drama of 2000, Trump has tried in the past few days to dictate the agenda, including through lawsuits his campaign has filed against Clark County in Nevada, on the grounds that it allegedly allowed people who were ineligible to vote in the state to cast ballots. This is also why he is filing petitions against various counties in Pennsylvania – to ensure that they allow his observers access, including Philadelphia County, the area thanks to which he won the state, and the presidency, in 2016.

Despite all the controversy surrounding these actions, which are supposedly preventing counties from counting votes through familiar procedures, it must be said that Trump's lawsuits have had partial success – in one county in Pennsylvania a court ruled in his favor, and his observers have been given broader access; in another county, counting was suspended until Friday, because a court was persuaded that there were some tens of thousands of ballots that it wasn't clear whether or not should be counted, as many were sent out in error and then returned. Another 7,000 ballots were found to be faulty.

The wheel won't be turned back

No matter the results of the various lawsuits, at the moment Trump isn't showing signs that he intends to give up. The math and the count are still in Biden's favor, and if an atmosphere of the "president-elect" is created, it will be hard to turn the wheel back.

Trump also knows that it will be much harder to petition the courts after the states have finished the formal processes of awarding their electoral votes to the winning party. It's always easier to stop a count than to take away votes that have already been declared official – both legally and in terms of how it looks. And as bad as it looks right now, Trump believes that the courts will give him legitimacy if he proves he has a case. And he has, at least he appears to have, a number of serious cases.

We must remember that this isn't an unusual or anti-democratic move by Trump, but part of the way in which Trump has already branded himself and the unofficial movement he has created: an authentic and colorful candidate, who doesn't operate in the conventional mold.

For example, in the midst of the waves of COVID in the US in recent months, Trump continued to hold his rallies and at the end even called to step them up in an almost unprecedented blitz of intensity --- even though that created a problematic image and drew criticism about a lack of social distancing during COVID.

To the same extent, he has continued to make provocative remarks and give bombastic interviews to all media outlets these past few months (as he did throughout his presidency). Even when he caused uproars, he saw that as an advantage, because by doing so he could control the agenda. He had only one goal: to preserve his base in order to get them to go out and vote en masse. Trump knew that without firing up his base of supporters, he had no chance of repeating his success of 2016 and that without upholding his image as a different kind of candidate and branding the Democrats as "establishment," he had no change.

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Even though it might turn out that he hasn't won the election, he got very close to his 2016 achievement and beat all the polls' predictions. Exit polls show that in areas that are strongly red, Trump managed to convince voters that Biden is a socialist, would cozy up to the elites, strangle the economy, and severely hamper the lives of the citizens. The same went for the rallies: it's possible that they convinced the voters a second time to turn out in droves on Election Day, and even before it. It's possible that it wasn't enough, but his anti-establishment conduct managed to give Trump a chance for a second term, even during a pandemic.

In the city of Las Vegas, while Nevada was counting votes, people from the Trump campaign held a press conference at which they warned that there was real concern about voter fraud in the city. They claimed that at least 10,000 people had allegedly voted who didn't even live in the country. They got to that level of detail. Donald Trump doesn't mean to forgo the White House, and he will claim that the election was stolen until everyone hears him.

Lessons of 2000

In Washington, a quiet tension could be felt yesterday. Many businesses were boarded up, and ones that hadn't already done so called in workmen, fearing riots.

Trump himself continued to claim on Thursday that he had won in Pennsylvania. Mostly, his people don't understand why in the Midwest people stopped voting on the eve of the election. The way they see it, the foremost goal is to get to a situation in which the battle is over a single state in which he has a lead, small as it might be, like Pennsylvania.

It's clear to him that Bush's success in the battle for Florida stemmed from setting clear battle lines that allowed both a legal victory and a PR victory. Throughout the 2000 campaign, Bush had a clear message: only a single count of all ballots can be legitimate.

While the Republicans have held onto that catchy message, the Democrats, under Al Gore, made a strategic mistake – they tried to hold a recount, but only in counties where it was convenient for them, and only by a method that was convenient for them. In the end, the Supreme Court was forced to intervene, and ruled – because constitutionally time had run out to resolve the issue – that Bush would hold onto his lead, and would be the winner in Florida. This is why it's so important for Trump to hold onto his lead.

However, if there is anything encouraging in everything we saw yesterday and these past few days, it's the caution of the various networks. Even CNN isn't rushing to eulogize Trump. Fox News, which took a volley of criticism from Republicans for rushing to declare that Arizona had gone blue, warned about fraud, and said that concerns pointed out by the Trump campaign must be looked into.

Another White House?

Either way, while we wait for the results, diplomats in Washington have started to assess what America under Biden will look like. They think that the US will demonstrate openness toward Iran in order to renew the 2015 nuclear deal and will emphasize normalization with the Palestinians – which could even include reopening the PLO mission in Washington, as vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris promised to do in an interview she gave a month ago.

And, of course, there is the prevailing believe that Biden will allow the US's enemy a lot of room to maneuver in the world. But all that aside, the sense is that Trump's legacy is so strong that it will force Biden to toe a similar line in order to uphold the stature and prestige of the US against North Korea and Iran, at least at the start of his term in office.

Now many Americans are waiting for the winner to be declared, before America heads into a downward spiral, to say the least. What is certain – the post-election campaign will be no less base than the election itself.

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It still isn't clear who will be declared the winner of the US presidential election, but even Wednesday night we could say that once again, the polls had misled the Americans. On the eve of the election, it looked like Democratic candidate Joe Biden had a big, solid lead, and was on his way to a large victory. But the moment it turned out that Florida was going for Trump, it was clear that the polls had been far from reality and, like in 2016, had not correctly assessed the Republican president's strength.

If we look at all the votes counted thus far, it seems as if the polls from four years ago were more accurate for today.

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On the eve of the 2016 election, most pollsters were pointing to a small lead for Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, who was ahead by an average of 3.2%. In the end, Clinton lost in electoral votes, but won the popular vote by a margin similar to what the polls showed of 2.1%. This time, Biden's projected lead in the polls stood at 7-8%. Last night, there were millions of votes that were still uncounted, but Biden's lead nationwide was much smaller, at some 2%.

The apparently lack of accuracy applies not only the national average but also in the very close races in a number of key states. In Florida, for example, most averages gave Biden a lead of 1-2%. With 96% of the votes counted on Wednesday, Trump won the state by 3.5%, 5% off the average in the polls. In Ohio, another state where the president won, the poll averages gave him a lead of 1%. With 96% of votes counted, he won with more than an 8% margin.

The errors of the polls were just as big for the Rust Belt. In Wisconsin, the former vice president was polling ahead by some 7%. As of Wednesday night, it looked like the Democratic candidate has won, but by a tiny 0.6% only, far from the lead the polls had promised. In Michigan, Biden's lead in the polls averaged 4.2%, but on Wednesday night, with 96% of the votes counter, he barely had a 0.9% lead. The situation in Pennsylvania, the third Rust Belt state, was still unclear on Wednesday, but polls gave Biden a lead of only 1.2% there.

Despite the problems, pollster Nate Silver, editor of the well-regarded site 538, rejected claims made against him and his colleagues, tweeting: "If a forecast says that Biden is favored because he could survive a 2016-style (~3 point) polling error when Clinton couldn't, and you get that polling error and he indeed (probably) survives, it was fairly informative?"

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Here are some images from the first few hours of Election Day 2020:

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Likud

The Likud's main concern is about areas where they could have considerable support, but those supporters won't necessarily go out and vote. The Likud has mapped out these areas, and representatives will go around on foot and try to convince people to vote. Likud ministers and MKs have been assigned specific areas, where they are charged with touring polling stations and urging voters to vote for the Likud. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to run a live Facebook stream on Election Day, and keep up his scare campaign of the past few days.

Blue and White

These past few days, Blue and White has been focusing its efforts on the biggest secular stronghold in the country – Tel Aviv. This is a continuation of the "haredim are flooding to the polls" campaign that the party launched on Friday. Some of the heads of Blue and White think that if they can push voter turnout in Tel Aviv to 70%, it will clinch the election for them. One senior party official told Israel Hayom that "70% voter turnout in Tel Aviv means another seat, and in an election that will be decided on a single seat, that's critical."

Yamina (formerly the New Right)

Yamina members spent the last day before the election in a battle to block Netanyahu and the Likud. They brought up Netanyahu's territorial concessions, his support for the 2005 disengagement from the Gaza Strip, his release of Palestinian terrorist prisoners, and his bringing leftist leaders into his government.

Yamina leader Ayelet Shaked and her comrades are focusing mainly on the religious Zionist sector that supports Netanyahu, and some of whom are responding to his dire warnings, and as a result have been wavering between the traditional religious Zionist parties and the warm home Netanyahu is offering.

Labor-Gesher

Thousands of activists from the Labor party and Labor youth movement will be knocking on tens of thousands of door nationwide, carrying the message that if Labor-Gesher doesn't make it past the minimum electoral threshold, Netanyahu will have 62 MKs, which will ensure that he assembles the next government as well as his immunity from prosecution. Labor is truly worried that for the first time in its history, the party won't make it over the minimum threshold and will not be represented in the Knesset. In an attempt to prevent such a nightmare scenario, the party has rounded up some 76,000 voters who are disappointed by Netanyahu and Kulanu leader Moshe Kahlon and is calling on them to come to the polls and save Labor.

Democratic Union

The Democratic Union is disturbed by what it is calling "the dangerous delusion of Benny Gantz," which is pressing voters to vote for Blue and White to make it the largest party. "Whoever has the majority in the bloc will assemble the government," said Ehud Barak in a briefing to activists on Sunday. The Democratic Union is planning a final PR campaign on social media and various media outlets, as well as by text message blitz, video clips, and even direct appeals by party candidates.

The message? Voting for Blue and White instead of the Democratic Union means the left-wing bloc will lose seats to the Right. In other words: "The meaning of a 'strategic' vote or if the Democratic Union is not represented in the Knesset is that Netanyahu will be prime minister."

Joint Arab List

The Joint Arab List is working assiduously to spur on potential voters to visit their polling places and exercise their democratic right. Average voter turnout in the Arab sector is 55%, but the Joint Arab List hopes to see a repeat of the 13 seats it secured in the 20^th Knesset, when the Arab sector saw voter turnout of over 65%. Party leaders are planning vigorous work in the field in the hope of encouraging as many supporters as possible to vote.

A special election headquarters will be based in Nazareth, with dozens of volunteers staffing the phones in an attempt to get out the Arab vote.

Shas

Shas' field team is considered one of the most effective. The party has a list of potential voters and knows where they are according to neighborhood, building, and family. The headquarters has activists who are responsible for contacting a few dozen voters each, and will update the party every few hours. The party is using voter lists that proved very effective in the last round of municipal elections, and also plans to reach out to Shas voters who voted for Kahlon in the last election.

United Torah Judaism

The party has set a goal of 70%-80% voter turnout by 1 p.m. on Election Day. Activist and volunteers will encourage its voter base. The party will operate buses to bring yeshiva students to their polling stations in Bnei Brak, Jerusalem, Modiin Illit, Beitar Illit, and elsewhere. The party also hopes to have time to try and influence the non-haredi sector.

Otzma Yehudit

Aside from a scare campaign of its own designed to bring out voters and prevent a possible unity government after the election, the far-right Otzma Yehudit has put together logistics to get voters out of their living rooms: the party will use hundreds of volunteers nationwide to drive voters to the polls.

Local coordinators will be on hand to ensure that potential Otzma Yehudit voters arrive at the polls. Each one will be assigned a list of wavering voters, whom they will try to persuade to vote for the party. The party's central headquarters in Jerusalem will become a "situation room" that will concentrate all party operations, including a phone campaign.

• Neither Yisrael Beytenu nor its leader Avigdor Lieberman would answer questions from Israel Hayom.

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However, when we look at the major blocs, a left-wing bloc that includes the Joint Arab List and Yisrael Beytenu appears to have the advantage.

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An i24NEWS-Israel Hayom poll conducted by the Maagar Mohot Institute surveyed a representative sample of adult Israeli eligible voters. The poll had a margin of error of 2.8%.

The poll predicted that the Likud would win 33 seats – the largest number for any party. The center-left Blue and White trailed by two seats, winning a projected 31.

The Joint Arab List, which appears to have been energized by the controversy surrounding a proposal to place cameras at polling places, won the third-largest number of predicted seats – 12.

Yisrael Beytenu dropped to a projected nine seats, followed by the haredi parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, each of which was predicted to win seven seats.

Yamina (formerly the New Right) under Ayelet Shaked was projected to win seven seats.

On the Left, six seats were projected for Labor-Gesher, bringing it farther away from the risk of not making it past the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25%. However, the Democratic Union seemed to be in trouble and was projected to win only four seats.

The poll also showed – for the second week in a row – the far-right Otzma Yehudit passing the minimum threshold with a projected four seats.

All the parties are expected to invest more resources than usual in getting voters to the polls on Election Day. Most of the campaign took place during summer vacation, and this is a repeat election. Both these factors could lead to low voter turnout, which could have a major effect on the results.

The i24NEWS-Israel Hayom poll tried to ascertain how certain supporters of various parties are that they will actually vote.

Two-thirds (66%) of respondents said they were 100% sure they would be voting. Another 21% said it was highly likely they would vote. Only 13% said it was "somewhat likely" or "unlikely" that they would vote.

The most gung-ho voters were supporters of Shas, 79% of whom said they were absolutely sure they would be casting ballots. Just behind the Shas, in terms of declared voter turnout, was United Torah Judaism, with 77% of supporters saying they would be voting – the same percentage of Blue and White voters who say they will definitely vote.

However, only 69% of Likud voters say they definitely plan to vote in the election.

If we look only at the respondents who said they definitely plan to vote, Blue and White won the most seats, coming in at 33, followed by the Likud at 32 seats.

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the right-wing public, especially Likud voters, were comparatively apathetic compared to left-wing voters.

This can be explained by another one of the questions on this week's poll. Respondents were asked, regardless of their political alignment, who would be charged with putting together the next government. Half of respondents said it would be Netanyahu, and only 25% thought that Blue and White leader Benny Gantz would be the person who would form the next government. Leaving out the 25% of respondents who said they didn't know who would be charged with putting together the government, 67% said it would be Netanyahu, compared to 33% who said they thought it would be Gantz. When a Netanyahu victory is seen as a sure thing, it's no wonder that right-wing voters might be inclined to stay home.

When asked who was most qualified to serve as prime minister, 49% of respondents picked Netanyahu, compared to 33% who picked Gantz. To the more specific question of who is best qualified to handle defense and security matters, 48% of respondents backed Netanyahu, compared to 35% for Gantz.

Netanyahu was also the favorite when it came to economic issues, with 41% saying he could best handle the economy. 36% said that Gantz was best qualified to handle the economy. However, when it came to social issues, Gantz came out ahead, with 39% saying he was best qualified to address social issues, compared to 33% who said Netanyahu was best-equipped to handle social matters.

When asked about blocs, rather than specific parties, 50% of respondents said they intended to vote for the Right, compared to 18% who said they intended to vote for the Left. Another 26% said they were in the center and 6% gave other responses.

Another question tried to pinpoint respondents' attitudes about the election. Fifty-three percent characterized it as "dirty," while 10% called it "violent." In contrast, 11% characterized it as "fair," compared to 8% who said it was "appropriate."

Blue and White billboards are promising a "secular unity government," and Lieberman has been touting a similar message these past few months. But how many voters actually want a unity government after the election? Not all that many, it turns out. Only 23% said they would like to see a unity government, compared to 41% who said they wanted to see a right-wing government, which Netanyahu is promising. Another 26% said they wanted the election to result in a left-wing government.

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In the past decade, the limitations of research institutes have been made clear time after time. Only a small minority of the public contacted by pollsters are even willing to take part in surveys. In addition, the freehand the pollsters allow themselves in analyzing the responses of undecided voters is always problematic.

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We must also take into account the unwillingness of the Arab public and the haredi sector to answer pollsters' questions, as well as last-minute surprises that pollsters do not take into account. What's more, the law bans the publication of any polling results in the three days leading up to Election Day. All these contribute to the repeat failures we see on the part of pollsters to predict the final results. In the April 9 election, most erred by as many as 30-35 seats, which went to parties other than what they had originally predicted.

Israel Hayom reached out to a number of pollsters and asked them for insights into the process while focusing on their strong points – defining variables that will affect the final election results – rather than on predictions of the results themselves. Pollsters were asked about the projected voter turnout among supporters of each party and sector that comprise the major blocs; how certain respondents were that they would vote for the same party on Election Day that they picked in the polls; how pollsters handle the issue of undecided voters – those who intend to vote but aren't yet sure for whom; and what factors most affect Israeli voters' final decision.

Menachem Lazar, CEO of Panels Politics, who built his first election poll 31 years ago, thinks that Sept. 17 will see a lower voter turnout than the April election, when 68.5% of eligible voters cast ballots. He can already point to the one-fifth of his respondents who say they do not plan to vote, as well as another 10% who do not live in Israel. (Under Israeli law, private citizens living outside the country cannot cast absentee ballots.)

"This time, again, the number of people in the Arab sector who say they do not intend to vote is much higher than the number who say they do not intend to vote among the general population," Lazar says. In April, only 49.2% of eligible Arab voters cast ballots.

"In the last election, supporters of Blue and White were 5% less likely to vote than the general population of voters. On the other hand, the number of haredi voters who say they intend to vote is much higher than among the general public. If there is low voter turnout overall, the haredi parties will be the first to benefit, so their proportionate strength will increase," Lazar explains.

Lazar also looked at how sure voters were about their choices. He discovered that haredi voters were most certain for whom they would be voting, followed by Likud supporters; supporters of Yisrael Beytenu; Blue and White; Yamina; and the Democratic Union.

Lazar sees a serious problem for two parties when it comes to how certain voters are of their choice. The first is the Yamina (formerly the New Right) list. "On one hand, the nationalist-haredim have a hard time with the secular [Ayelet] Shaked as leader, and on the other, it's hard for the liberal religious to accept the dominance of [Bezalel Smotrich and [Rafi] Peretz."

The second such party – list, rather – is Labor-Gesher.

"In both cases, Labor and Yamina, the 'wavering' votes are wavering almost exclusively within the same blocs. Voters who say that they are voting Yamina now could wind up voting for the Likud, and voters who say right now that they'll vote for Labor-Gesher could eventually vote for Blue and White or the Democratic Union."

Professor Yitzhak Katz, CEO of the Maagar Mohot Institute, looked at another parameter that could indicate to what degree each party is holding onto its base from the previous election. He looked at how many supporters of each party planned to vote the same way and he, too, discovered that according to this parameter, Labor-Gesher is in trouble.

"Voter turnout will decide this election, because we're seeing virtually no movement between blocs. What will be most important is not who votes, but who doesn't."

"Only 27% of the people who voted for Labor last time say that they will vote for Labor this time. On the other hand, 32% of those who voted for Labor last time plan to vote for the Democratic Union this time, and 14% plan to vote for Blue and White. This definitely explains why Labor-Gesher is bobbing around near the minimum electoral threshold," Katz says.

However, according to Katz's findings, 70% of people who voted for Blue and White in April plan to vote for the party again, while 2% will be moving to Labor-Gesher, 3% to the Joint Arab List, 4% to Yisrael Beytenu, 4% to the Democratic Union, and 2% to Yamina.

What does this parameter show us when it comes to Yamina and the Likud?

"[Some] 65% of Likudniks will vote for the party again [on Sept. 17], 7% will move over to [Avigdor] Lieberman, 5% to Yamina, 4% to Blue and White, and 17% still aren't sure," Katz says.

"For Yamina – a list that includes two parties that ran separately in the last election – the situation is more complicated: 64% of people who voted for the New Right say they will vote for Yamina, but only 40% of those who voted for the United Right [Habayit Hayehudi and National Union alliance] say they will vote for Yamina."

Like Lazar, Katz also looked at many people who voted in April would be voting on Sept. 17, if not necessarily for the same party. He says that the results provide an indication of what kind of voter turnout can be expected for the different blocs. Both Katz and Lazar predict nearly zero movement from one bloc to another.

Katz found that 82% of Labor voters from April plan to vote on Sept. 17, compared to 74% of supporters of the Democratic Union and United Torah Judaism; 69% of Blue and White supporters; 68% of Yisrael Beytenu voters; 65% of Likud voters; 62% of Yamina voters; and 55% of supporters of the Arab parties.

Rafi Smith, head of Smith Consulting, offers interesting information about the source of Lieberman's strength. Despite the Likud's attempts to make him go away, his support in the polls has doubled from five seats in April to 10 seats or more in recent polls.

"Lieberman is getting about two seats from the Likud, two from Blue and White, and some from Yamina … and Kulanu," Smith explains.

Like his colleagues, Smith foresees a difficult election for Labor: "Polls show it losing two seats to the Democratic Union. That means they have a very low rate of die-hard support."

Smith doesn't provide numbers about the wavering votes for the two biggest parties – Likud and Blue and White – but he says that generally speaking, Blue and White supporters tend to be less definite.

"If there isn't any major event in the south, the reality there will have little influence on the election."

"What will determine the results is voter turnout. If all Israelis were to turn out and vote, it would be good for the Right. Demographically, the public has been trending right-ward for years. Low voter turnout would be bad for the Right. A 5% increase in voter turnout in the Arab sector would be enough to give the Left another seat," Smith says.

Smith has also found that supporters of Gesher, which joined up with Labor, and Kulanu (which joined the Likud), could split their votes among several parties.

"The profile of Gesher and Kulanu voters isn't one-dimensional, so there is no one party they are flocking to. We can find them in both blocs, in this party or in that party. In comparison, people who voted for the New Right or the United Right [in April], who found a joint home in Yamina, are more homogenous – certainly closer to each other than Kulanu voters are to the Likud, or Gesher voters are to Labor," he says.

Smith is pessimistic about the prospects for the far-right Otzma Yehudit, which as of this week is still in the race.

"I think they will get about 70,000 votes. To pass the minimum threshold, you need 130,000-140,000 votes. That's an insane number of people, a little less than the population of Ramat Gan and much higher than the number of residents of Raanana or Kfar Saba. It's a daunting number. At least based on what the polls are telling us right now, it's hard to believe they'll make it."

Aside from voter turn-out and pure numbers, what can the pollsters tell us about the concerns of the undecided voters – not to mention Israeli voters in general? What issues will determine their final vote?

Professor Camil Fuchs, the veteran pollster for the Dialogue Institute, discussed the subject last week in a lecture at the Israeli Institute for Democracy. In his presentation, he revealed a new study conducted in July and August that collated the results of six polls conducted among 2,173 Jewish Israelis.

Fuchs did not ask which parties they intended to vote for. He asked which blocs they would be supporting: Right, center-left, religious-haredi, or Yisrael Beytenu. The results indicate that among Jewish voters, the right-wing/religious/haredi bloc is in a dead heat with the center-left/Yisrael Beytenu, with each winning 42% of the public's support. The Arabs could tip the scales, but Fuchs' survey did not include that sector, and in light of the low expected voter turnout, it's doubtful that will happen.

Fuchs found that the older Jewish Israelis were, the more likely they were to vote for the center-left.

"Young people lean much more to the Right. The two factors that are the best predictors are previous votes and how religious the voters are. In general, secular Israelis vote more for the Left and the religious vote more for the Right. Among secular Israelis, there is a difference between immigrants from the former Soviet Union, who lean much more toward the Right and Yisrael Beytenu, and the rest, who lean toward the Center and the Left."

Fuchs also analyzed voting according to location and, not surprisingly, found that support for the Right is stronger in Judea and Samaria, in southern Israel, and in Jerusalem. In central Israel and the greater Tel Aviv area, support for the Left is much higher.

Smith adds that "In places with high voter turnout by the religious and a high percentage of Mizrahi voters, you'll always have more right-wing votes. It doesn't matter if it's in the north, the center, or the south. On the other hand, secular Ashkenazi voters will vote less for the Right and more for the center-left.

"Likud voters say that security and defense issues clinch their votes. Voters on the Left say that social issues are what decide, but what really affects recent elections is the person who heads the party. In the past few elections and this coming one, the question was and is: yes or no to Bibi?"

Smith, Katz, and Lazar agree that at least for now, events on the Gaza border and the western Negev don't have too much of an effect on voters, who have apparently gotten used to the situation.

"Gaza has turned into a chronic problem," Lazar says. "So it has less of an effect on voters."

Katz thinks that "If there isn't any major event in the south, the reality there will have little influence on the election."

"In this election, like the last one, there's a strong personal element," Lazar says.

"Other than Netanyahu, the polls indicate that there are two personalities for whom people are voting, rather than their agendas: Ayelet Shaked in Yamina and Gabi Ashkenazi in Blue and White," Lazar adds.

Right now, the undecided or unsure comprise 15% to 25% of voters.

According to Fuchs, "Voter turnout will decide this election because we're seeing virtually no movement between blocs. What will be most important is not who votes, but who doesn't."

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