The key questions about the Sept. 17 election are: Will the right-wing bloc win a majority of Knesset seats? Will the Likud or Blue and White win more votes? How will Yisrael Beytenu do? What will happen to the other parties?
According to polls published in the past few weeks, it looks like the right-wing bloc does not have a majority. The race between the two biggest parties is close. In both blocs, there are small parties that have a lot of power. The big winner is Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman, whose party (according to the polls) is gaining seats, will take over the middle of the political map, putting itself in the position to decide the outcome.
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We should qualify these statements. We've already learned that polls give us a picture that can be far from what happens when the election is over. We could still see major surprises. Four factors will determine the political makeup of the 22nd Knesset: votes that move from one bloc to another; votes that move from one party to another within the same bloc; voter turnout in various sectors; and the effect of the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25% of the vote – below which a party does not make it into the Knesset.
The results of the polls I've seen indicate modest vote movement between the two biggest parties. Yisrael Beytenu will take floating votes from both blocs. A small but potentially significant trend is voters who supported the Likud and other right-wing parties but are now backing Lieberman. Some votes are also flowing in the opposite direction but not enough to make up for the loss.
When it comes to the smaller parties, the fate of Labor-Gesher is a particularly interesting question. Only a small number of supporters of both these parties have remained loyal. They are losing votes both to Blue and White and the Democratic Union. It could be argued that this marks the end of the Labor party. But the picture is actually different – a significant number of voters who cast ballots for Blue and White in April say they intend to support Labor-Gesher this time around – which improves the Likud's chances of winning.
Voter turnout in various sectors will have a major influence on the election results. Supporters of both Arab lists are showing more steadfast support than people who voted for any of the other parties. An overwhelming majority have expressed their intention of voting for the Joint Arab List. However, Arab voter turnout, which is relatively low anyway, could drop even more than Jewish voter turnout is expected to. The Likud is especially vulnerable to low voter turnout by past and present supporters. And if we're talking about votes likely to be "wasted" on parties that don't make it past the minimum threshold, Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit list is a prime example.
No matter what kind of political map the voters draw, the decisiveness of party leaders will shape the next government.
