Attempts to smuggle weapons using drones, satellite images indicating changes in the Egyptian military's force deployment in Sinai, and concerned security coordinators in Israeli border communities all paint a concerning picture regarding developments in Egypt.

Israeli political and security officials state that Egypt's shifting military presence in Sinai is closely monitored and periodically approved by the prime minister. However, sources familiar with Israel-Egypt relations acknowledge that such approvals are always given retroactively, after Egypt has already turned these violations of the Israel-Egypt peace treaty into routine occurrences. A source with knowledge of the situation told Israel Hayom: "The images from Egypt raised concerns, prompting us to conduct checks with Military Intelligence and the Southern IDF Command. Indeed, there are violations, but surprisingly, the situation is better than it was in the past."

Soldiers stationed near the border note that, given it is a peaceful border, any action is taken with caution, with primary attention focused on the smuggling routes between Sinai and the Bedouins.

The IDF recently acknowledged the smuggling of long-range weapons into Israel via drones. Israeli assessments indicate that these weapons previously made their way from Sinai to Gaza. However, with the IDF now deployed along the Philadelphi Corridor, a new client has emerged, the Bedouins, who in turn transfer the weapons to criminal organizations and the West Bank. On the Israeli side, smugglers wait on fast-moving ATVs and disappear within seconds. Since this is a relatively new smuggling route, Israeli authorities are still working to track where the weapons are being funneled, accumulating knowledge as they go.

Concern over Egyptian military buildup

Former Deputy Ambassador to Egypt and researcher at the Misgav Institute, Ruth Wasserman Lande, has also voiced concern over the developments and statements emerging from Egypt. "Over a year ago, on October 8, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi made unusually harsh statements, saying that if Israel approached southern Gaza, it would be grounds for war. I said back then that this does not bode well. This is very serious, and I wouldn't dismiss it lightly. Over time, it has become evident that there is a significant increase in Egyptian military presence in the Sinai Peninsula, far beyond even the previous violations of the peace treaty that we had reluctantly accepted."

Wasserman Lande warns: "Not only are we allowing the buildup of forces on the other side, but we are also permitting it without receiving anything in return, in a way that does not align with the diplomatic language of the Middle East."

In recent days, Egyptian rhetoric has also touched on concerns over the potential implementation of former US President Donald Trump's peace plan. El-Sisi has made it clear in no uncertain terms that he will not allow it to happen, even postponing a planned visit to the White House as a declarative move. "This was also what initially worried the Egyptians at the start of the war," Wasserman Lande explained. "They view this as a potential cause for war. They understand that Hamas embeds itself within the civilian population, and they do not want that scenario spilling over into Egypt. They reacted strongly when Israel was about to enter Rafah. While they ultimately did not launch a war, they have begun acting as though they are preparing for one."

Regarding the likelihood of a conflict, Wasserman Lande says that war requires both capability and willingness: "Egypt has the capability, the roads, bridges, tunnels, and fuel. Their reference scenario is Israel. The question is about their willingness. It may seem irrational because they know that Israel is militarily superior, especially now with strong US support. However, there is a difference between willingness and motivation. Motivation can override rational considerations. This is where we often misread our adversaries, just as we underestimated Hamas' readiness to act. There are things more important to them than life itself, what we see as logical, they see as national honor." She concludes, "I believe there are those monitoring this situation closely, but given the multiple fronts, the pressure on the system, and Israel's internal challenges, not enough attention is being paid to this possibility."

On the other hand, a former Israeli ambassador to Egypt interprets the situation differently: "I sense a wave of anti-Egyptian sentiment, likely fueled by anger over Egypt not opening its borders, something some Israelis assumed would happen. There are several actors, not necessarily official ones, who seem intent on spreading reports of Egypt's military buildup in Sinai. Back in 2011, when Egypt was shaken by the Muslim Brotherhood revolution and the country faced extreme instability, ISIS and al-Qaeda elements entrenched in Sinai carried out terror attacks that severely undermined Egypt's national security and led to the deaths of many soldiers."

"Egypt turned to Israel, and we allowed them exceptional military deployments. There is a long-standing military coordination mechanism in place. It may be necessary to scrutinize these exceptions more closely, but that is the responsibility of Israel's intelligence agencies, not the media. The media noise surrounding this issue is unhelpful and only fosters mutual hostility. A designated international force, the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO), is specifically tasked with overseeing Sinai's demilitarization, and vast sums are allocated for its maintenance. Egypt lost valuable time over the past decade due to political upheaval, and now they are trying to compensate for it by focusing on national development. Would a war with Israel serve that goal? Certainly not."

Satellite images reveal tanks in Sinai

Lt. Col. (res.) Eliyahu Dekel, who has monitored Egypt's adherence to the peace agreement since his military service immediately after the treaty was signed, continues to track the situation today. His website is filled with data and charts documenting these violations. Commenting on recent images from Egypt showing Abrams tanks in Sinai, he states: "The presence of tanks near Israel's border is a blatant violation of the peace agreement, which stipulates that most of Sinai should remain demilitarized."

According to Dekel, "There is indisputable satellite evidence showing 100 tanks in El-Arish even before the war. These tanks are entirely prohibited in the area. Violations have been ongoing for decades. Initially, there were supposed to be 22,000 soldiers in the western part of Sinai, but now the agreement has been completely eroded, with four times that number permanently stationed there."

He adds, "Sinai is supposed to be free of all military forces. If the latest images are verified, the concern isn't just about forces in Sinai, the key issue is the type of tanks. The images show Abrams tanks, which are Egypt's premier battle tanks, reserved for elite units. The peace treaty allows for division-level tanks, so the question arises: What are these special forces doing in Sinai? In recent years, three new airfields have been built in Sinai, and massive tunnels have been dug, blatantly violating the peace treaty. The treaty allows for military camps for 47 battalions, currently, there are camps for 180 battalions, four times the permitted amount. These are ongoing processes."

The IDF Spokesperson's Unit responded: "IDF forces are deployed along the border to protect Israeli communities and are actively fulfilling that mission. During the war, defensive efforts were reinforced, and rules of engagement were adjusted to allow soldiers to respond effectively and offensively to any threat along the western border. The public is regularly updated on developments across all sectors, in accordance with censorship and operational security considerations. The IDF continues to operate in line with security needs while respecting the peace agreement."