For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the American president's decision marks a moment to feel relieved. He now possesses a devastating answer for the right-wing sector of the coalition and members of the Likud who continually press for sovereignty. As is recorded in the Book of Esther: "For a writing which is written in the king's name, and sealed with the king's ring, may no one reverse." What Donald Trump determined is now fact – and nothing can be done about it.

The Yesha Council, which managed a very successful and sophisticated campaign both domestically and in Washington, was able to elevate the idea of sovereignty high in public opinion, but it appears the council failed to accurately pick-up the broader diplomatic mood. It was evident in recent weeks that in light of the international anti-Israeli sentiment sweeping countries, it was just unthinkable to further antagonize the international community with that move.

Instead of insisting on sovereignty until the very end, the Yesha Council could have proposed a wise compromise to Donald Trump, Emmanuel Macron, and Benjamin Netanyahu: We will forgo the idea of sovereignty, and in return, the French president will withdraw from the initiative to recognize a Palestinian state. As this did not occur – the bitter outcome now is that Israel both received the international recognition of a Palestinian state and forfeited the sovereignty option – without any compensation. The missed opportunity is unfortunate.

However, there is also a somewhat positive angle to Donald Trump's decision. The American president effectively saved Israel from itself. Sovereignty at this juncture would have exacted extremely heavy political and economic costs, primarily in the form of European sanctions even more severe than those still anticipated to arrive. It is highly questionable how successfully Israel could have practically implemented sovereignty on the ground, given that it has more than enough critical issues on its plate to deal with these days.

Sovereignty will absolutely come eventually – but gradually, at a more appropriate time and under better circumstances. Sometimes the truest friend is the one who understands when to say "no."

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The United States gave consent to a historic move on Jan. 28, 2020, when as part of its peace plan, it recognized Israel's right to apply sovereignty over the Jordan Valley and Israeli settlements in one-third of Judea and Samaria. 

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"We will form a joint committee with Israel to convert the conceptual map into a more detailed and calibrated rendering so that recognition can be immediately achieved," President Donald Trump said at the White House ceremony that day. 

Note his use of the word "immediately." That one word would determine the entire future of the sovereignty clause. 

Despite Trump's explicit statements and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's promises, to this day the plan has not been implemented. Despite Former Senior White House Adviser Jared Kushner's elusive commitments and Former United States Ambassador to Israel David Friedman's assurances, the bold political move that was meant to turn the tide of history was shelved instead.  

How and why did the plan fail? 

Netanyahu started entertaining the notion of applying sovereignty in Judea and Samaria back in 2018. At a Likud faction meeting, he said he had been conversing with the US on the subject for some time. He stressed that one of the most important things was to maintain "as much coordination with the US as possible, a connection with whom is a strategic asset to Israel and its settlements."

In a response uncharacteristic of the Trump administration, the White House quickly denied the allegations. "Reports that the United States discussed with Israel an annexation plan for the West Bank are false," White House spokesman Josh Raffel said in a statement.

Nevertheless, Netanyahu and his advisers, including former Israeli Ambassador to the US Ron Dermer, remained in close contact with Trump, Kushner, Friedman, and presidential adviser Jason Greenblatt about formulating the sovereignty deal. 

The plan was completed by the end of 2018, but Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman bolted the coalition, forcing Israel into an early election. In fear of being perceived as meddlers in Israeli elections, a matter that constantly bothered Kushner, the US decided to delay the plan until Israel formed a government. No one could have predicted that Israel was about to plunge into two years of political turmoil. 

Knowing the details of the sovereignty plan full well, Netanyahu shared them throughout his campaign, but many perceived his remarks as attempts to garner more votes ahead of the election.

Another year went by. Israel was in the midst of its third election by the end of 2019 and Trump was getting ready for a new presidential race. Nevertheless, despite the political situation in Israel, the leaders decided to unveil the plan, marking January 2020 as the month when the "deal of the century" would be presented to the public. 

Netanyahu requested that Friedman be the one to present right-wing leaders with the main points of the deal and mobilize their support, as he was well-respected and trusted in right-wing circles. Friedman agreed to what was considered a historic plan at the time. 

In the weeks leading up to the White House ceremony, Friedman spoke with prominent figures in the right-wing media and political system in Israel. One of his key promises was the "green light" that Israel would be given to "immediately" apply sovereignty over the Jordan Valley and Israeli settlements in Judea and Samaria.

Until that moment, the notion of Israeli sovereignty over these regions was considered absurd, but after Friedman's promises, right-wing leaders sided with the move.

Then-Defense Minister Naftali Bennett called the plan Israel's "greatest political opportunity in the last 50 years." Journalists affiliated with the national camp spoke out in support as well. The prime minister applied pressure on the leaders of the Yesha Council, the umbrella organization of Jewish authorities in Judea and Samaria, to accompany him to Washington. 

On Monday morning, Jan. 27, Netanyahu arrived in Washington with his advisers, Friedman and Likud MK Yariv Levin, who turned out had been involved in the drafting of the plan all along. 

Levin called the sovereignty plan "groundbreaking on every level, an idea never before talked about."

"It was difficult at first to convince the US of the logic [behind the plan,] and the urgency of its implementation. But in the end, the conclusion was clear: they were going to recognize our right for sovereignty," Levin said. 

While after arriving in Washington Netanyahu began preparing for the next day's ceremony, Trump and his team were busy with a completely different issue. January saw the culmination of Trump's first impeachment trial when America was on the edge of its seat to find out whether former National Security Adviser John Bolton would appear in front of the Senate to testify against the president. That same day Trump was briefed on the country's coronavirus situation and tweeted, who would have believed, that the US was offering to help China in combating the virus. 

Netanyahu, Trump and their advisers were supposed to meet that evening for a last-minute meeting to discuss the deal, but due to the president's busy schedule, it was canceled. That cancellation marked the first malfunction in the plan. 

The ceremony was held the next day at the White House. Netanyahu seemed excited and enthusiastic, but Trump came across as impatient, perhaps due to the stress of the impeachment trial. 

Immediately after, Netanyahu held a media briefing at Blair House. He was over the moon. Three years' worth of hard work finally bore fruits. Such a historic breakthrough had been unparalleled since the 1967 Six-Day War. Israel was about to strengthen its position in Judea and Samaria. 

The briefing took a while. Netanyahu described the nitty-gritty of the plan and said that the following week the Israeli government would meet to discuss the implementation.

"Sovereignty over the settlements on Sunday," Netanyahu's adviser Yonatan Orich tweeted at the time. 

Kushner, who was being interviewed by American media at the same time as Netanyahu was talking to journalists at Blair House, expressed a different opinion. He clearly stated that the plan's implementation was not a matter of a few days. That inconsistency became the sovereignty plan's second malfunction. 

In Israel, Orich quickly deleted the tweet. In Washington, the situation continued to deteriorate. 

The Yesha Council representatives that had come with Netanyahu were Chairman David Elhayani, head of the Efrat Local Council in Samaria Oded Revivi, and Chairman of the Gush Etzion Regional Council Shlomo Ne'eman.

Arriving with Netanyahu was Yossi Dagan, head of the Samaria Regional Council.

Dagan was eager to meet with Netanyahu alone. But Elhayani had Netanyahu promise not to do so.  

Nevertheless, at about one in the morning, when Elhayani was stepping out of Blair House, he saw Dagan waiting outside. He got angry and drafted an opposition statement against the sovereignty plan on behalf of the Yesha Council. 

The White House found out about his statement soon enough. Friedman was shocked to read it. "The ambassador was very frustrated," an American official confirmed. 

The settlers and their leaders are idealistic people, but their behavior was childish. It reflected a lack of understanding of the political arena on their part. 

In any case, the most pressing issue at the time was the inconsistency between Netanyahu and Friedman's timeline versus Kushner's. The former said "sovereignty on Sunday," the latter "sovereignty later, after the election."

"To this day, I don't understand what happened there," Levin admitted. "It was clear to us that the plan should be implemented immediately. Nobody in the administration denied that had been our conclusion. When that same evening they requested a delay, the reason behind it was technical, to put the maps in order, but both at that time and later they showed no fundamental opposition." 

"There is no doubt that Ambassador Friedman and Envoy Greenblatt were enthusiastic about the idea [of sovereignty] and therefore it was added to the plan," a former White House official told Israel Hayom.

As for Kushner, "he was the boss. We briefed him many times on the plan, including the idea of sovereignty. Even if he was less enthusiastic than the others, he did not object [to the idea]. For if he had opposed it, the idea would never have made it into the plan."

"Jared is a smart man, with a knack for strategic thinking. Claiming that he did not understand, or that the entire idea of sovereignty was a political bluff by Netanyahu is complete nonsense," the former official said. 

The official explained that the remarks Greenblatt made to i24NEWS were proof of this. Greenblatt said that what Israel was considering to do [applying sovereignty over the Jordan Valley and Judea and Samaria] was entirely in line with the plan." 

The official added that after the Abraham Accords, when speaking to journalists on board the first commercial flight from Israel to the United Arab Emirates on Aug. 31, 2020, Kushnir himself told journalists, "I don't see any probability that Israel is going to give up that territory."

An Israeli official familiar with the matter remarked that "if Netanyahu had known for a fact that that was indeed Washington's standing in the matter, he would never have gone as far as Washington to declare sovereignty. Why would he do that to himself?"

In later interviews, Friedman explained that the inconsistency that day resulted from a "misunderstanding." 

According to one US official, the misunderstanding occurred when Trump used the word "immediately" during his announcement of the plan. For Friedman and Netanyahu that meant "at the next cabinet meeting," for Kushner, who was aware of the internal political situation in Israel, that meant "after the election." 

Another senior official in the Trump administration told Israel Hayom that if the meeting the evening before the ceremony had taken place, the mishap could have been avoided. "It was embarrassing, but the plan was 180-pages long. It would make sense if one or two details were misunderstood."

Israel Hayom interviewed seven top officials both in Washington and Jerusalem, and all of them rejected the claim that Friedman and Kushner locked horns over the matter.

"Jared waged many wars in the White House and won every one of them," one of those officials said. "If he wanted to, he could have gotten rid of the ambassador. The fact that no such thing happened proves that was not the case. On the contrary, the ambassador greatly appreciated Jared's work. He even organized a farewell ceremony for him and named the courtyard of the US embassy in Jerusalem after him."

One way or another, both Americans and Israelis tried to use this opportunity and toe the line. Early on Wednesday morning, still in Washington, Friedman was woken up by a call from the White House for a second over-the-phone briefing on the peace plan. He explained that "a mapping committee will be established, but it is a process that requires [lots of] effort, understanding and coordination."

This was a compromise everyone agreed to: to establish a US-Israeli committee that will map out areas of Judea and Samaria that Israel may apply sovereignty over as part of the peace plan. Nevertheless, Kushner carried on talking about postponement until after the Israeli election, i.e., at least two months, while Netanyahu and his advisers continued their briefs to make a decision in the upcoming days. 

Later on Wednesday, the Israeli delegation departed for Israel, making a stopover in Moscow to visit Naama Issachar, who had been arrested by Russian authorities in April 2019 in Sheremetyevo International Airport. 

Onboard the plane, despite journalists' attempts to extract some criticism from Netanyahu for the embarrassment caused by Kushner, the prime minister only summed up the incident with the word "misunderstanding."

Several weeks had gone by and the coronavirus was beginning to reign over the world. The sovereignty missile, so to speak, was deviating from its course, but control centers in Jerusalem and Washington were still trying to take control of it. The US-Israeli mapping committee convened at the end of February in Israel. In the upcoming weeks, both before and after the Israeli election, the committee met several times and made significant progress. 

However, obstacles kept coming, including from those who were supposed to have been the move's biggest proponents. Elhayani, Dagan, and other settlement leaders competed against each other as to who could out-condemn the plan. MKs Bezalel Smotrich, Ayelet Shaked, and Naftali Bennett made sure to keep a safe distance from the sovereignty plan too. 

The Left, unsurprisingly, began its campaign against "the annexation." Israeli journalists advised Arab diplomats in the country to threaten to sever relations with Israel. The international community, and especially Western Europe, joined in the threats, and momentum was lost. 

And yet, despite all that, Netanyahu and the Trump administration continued to claim that the sovereignty plan was still on the agenda. The mapping committee continued its work, with many officials from Judea and Samaria butting in to influence the final version of the plan. 

Finally, by Jul. 1, a deadline set forth by Netanyahu, the committee had prepared four possible maps. 

Israel finally established a government at the end of June, but by then Trump's domestic and international status had been undermined by the coronavirus, making Kushner even more reluctant to take political risks. 

At the same time, the US gave Blue and White leader Benny Gantz the right to veto the political process. When speaking to settlers, Gantz might have shown enthusiasm and support for the possibility of sovereignty, even encouraging them, but to the US, his message was the complete opposite. The same happened with Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi. 

According to Levin, the plan could still have been implemented at that stage, but the continued opposition on behalf of the Yesha Council eliminated all chances.  "The leadership needs to learn its lesson from missing out on this incredible opportunity," he said. 

Earlier in June, UAE Ambassador to Washington Yousef Al Otaiba suggested a proposal to suspend the sovereignty plan in lieu of a peace deal between Israel and the Emirates. Before the article on the proposal was published in Yedioth Ahronoth on June 12, it had already been passed on to former presidential assistant Avi Berkowitz, who gave it the green light. 

At the end of June, Berkowitz arrived in Israel and met with Ashkenazi, Gantz and Netanyahu, each one separately. The first two spoke of their opposition to the plan, while the prime minister approved the conversion of the sovereignty plan into a peace agreement with the UAE, a process that had in any case been underway after years of behind the scenes negotiations. 

That day was the end of Israel's sovereignty plans, exchanged for a peace deal with the Emirates. 

Farewell to the sovereignty plan until the next announcement on the matter or a new Republican administration decides to put it back on track. 

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In response to the article, the Yesha Council said in a statement that "for years the Israeli Right has been fighting to establish a Palestinian state, which poses a great danger to Israel. We warned Washington, the prime minister and his staff about it, even before the plan was published. After the plan was published, it stated the establishment of a Palestinian state as one of its goals, and turned out we had been right." 

Head of the Samaria Regional Council Yossi Dagan was unavailable for comment. 

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"Almost immediately, a series of escalating events began in the Israeli-Palestinian sphere and beyond," the Institute for National Security Studies warned.

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As part of a quickly deteriorating Middle Eastern situation, the INSS warned that Jerusalem would likely be confronted with a wave of Palestinian violence and the freezing of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty, as well as Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas declaring independence in Judea and Samaria.

"During the exercise, the increased loss of control over these events spurred the various relevant actors to accede to a plan by the Quartet [UN, US, EU and Russia] for the suspension of both the annexation and establishment of the Palestinian state and a return to the negotiating table – with [US President Donald Trump's] plan one of the terms of reference for those negotiations, along with the Arab Peace Initiative," the INSS concluded.

The Arab Peace initiative is a 2002 Saudi-sponsored plan that offers Israel full diplomatic normalization and trade with the Arab world in exchange for a Palestinian state in accordance with the UN and international law.

The INSS also lamented that the current Israeli government would be eschewing long-term strategic thinking in favor of short-term considerations, and that sovereignty could prompt "dramatic steps that change the rules of the game."

"It became clear that tactical events are what determine Israeli strategy," the think tank said. "This tendency was illustrated during the war game, and showed that the decision-making process reflects short-term thinking that does not take into account all of the direct or indirect consequences of dramatic steps that change the rules of the game."

According to the INSS, Israel could also be confronted with a far less amenable administration in the White House come November, when the US holds presidential elections.

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"The image of Israel as a 'regional bully' that does not comply with norms, international law, or the rules of the game, while enjoying full American backing, is prevalent. The dynamic of the game showed that if [US Democratic Presidential nominee Joe] Biden is elected president, he may withdraw American recognition of the annexation, and perhaps the protection of the American veto on a decision against Israel that is not binding in the Security Council. In that case, relations between Israel and the Democratic Party in the US will be seriously harmed," the report concluded.

Parts of this article were originally published by i24NEWS.

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The officials also told Klein there was "more than a 50% chance" that the sovereignty initiative would be approved.

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Klein, who heads the most influential Jewish-American organization in the White House, relayed the details to dozens of leading ZOA activists in a video conference call last week. He then confirmed the details to Israel Hayom on Friday.

Administration officials did not discuss the Israeli sovereignty issue over the weekend because of US Independence Day celebrations. Internal White House deliberations and talks with Israeli officials are expected to resume in the coming days. Many officials in Israel and the US have attested to the difficulties in implementing the sovereignty plan but emphasized that a final decision hasn't been made yet and that all options were still on the table.

In the conference call with ZOA officials, Klein laid out 12 reasons the Israeli sovereignty plan should be given the green light.

"Applying sovereignty is the most rational, humane and security-driven decision, which is reinforced by the Bible. It gives Israel defensible borders instead of the 'thin waist' it has now, and brings stability and normalcy to the lives of 500,000 Jews who currently reside in Judea, Samaria and the Jordan Valley," he said.

According to Klein, "Opposition to the sovereignty initiative means the ethnic cleansing of half a million Jews from their homes in their national homeland."

Klein also lambasted the large Jewish organizations that have come out against the initiative.

The opposition to Israel's sovereignty claims, he said, "Stems from left-wing American groups that fear monger and always cause damage."

He added: "The detractors to sovereignty are the same leftist ideologues who pushed for the destructive Oslo Accords and disengagement from Gaza. The detractors of sovereignty are the same groups who wrongly predicted the entire Middle East would go up in flames if the US embassy is relocated to Jerusalem, the eternal capital of Israel. These groups lost all semblance of credibility a long time ago – and the State of Israel doesn't need to listen to them."

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The Elders, founded by Nelson Mandela in 2007, said in letters to the leaders of France, Germany, Britain and the European Union that they should insist to Israel that annexation, as they call it, would have negative political and economic consequences for bilateral and regional relations.

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had aimed to start the process by Wednesday, July 1, saying he wanted to begin applying sovereignty in parts of Judea and Samaria in accordance with US President Donald Trump's Mideast plan.

But Regional Cooperation Minister Ofir Akunis said the sovereignty process had been delayed, telling Army Radio last week that officials were still working out the final details with their American counterparts. He said he expected the sovereignty initiative to take place later in July.

The Trump administration's peace plan, unveiled in January, envisions bringing some 30% of Judea and Samaria under permanent Israeli control and gave a green light for Israel to legally claim that territory. The Palestinians have vehemently rejected the plan as pro-Israeli.

The delay cast further uncertainty over whether Israel will ultimately follow through on the explosive sovereignty initiative, which has also drawn condemnations from some of Israel's closest allies.

The United Nations, the EU and key Arab countries have all said annexation would violate international law and undermine the already diminished prospects of establishing a viable independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.

The Elders – led by former Irish President Mary Robinson with Mandela's widow Graca Machel and former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon as co-chairs – said sovereignty "is fundamentally contrary to the long-term interests of both the Israeli and the Palestinian peoples."

They said annexation "will not dampen future Palestinian demands for rights and self-determination, but destroying hopes in a two-state compromise will increase the risks of future violence in one of the most combustible areas in the world."

The Elders called on EU leaders to consider suspending the 27-nation's Association Agreement with Israel if sovereignty goes ahead in any form. They also recalled the United Kingdom's "historical and abiding responsibility" as the colonial power in pre-1948 Palestine.

The Elders' appeal followed an appeal from British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to Israel to call off the annexation plan.

In a front-page article Wednesday in Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, Johnson wrote that as a "passionate defender of Israel," he was fearful that annexation will fail in the country's objective of securing its borders, "and will be contrary to Israel's own long-term interests."

"I profoundly hope that annexation does not go ahead," he said. "If it does, the UK will not recognize any changes to the 1967 lines, except those agreed between both parties."

In addition to opposing Israel's sovereignty plan, the Elders reiterated their support for Israeli and Palestinian human rights defenders and civil society activists, saying their "voices need to be protected and amplified at this challenging time."

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Johnson's "friendly" threats should surprise no one. Since 2017, when he began serving as Britain's foreign minister under then prime minister Theresa May, Johnson demonstrated amply that he is no great friend of Israel, or of anyone else.

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After leading the fight for Brexit as Mayor of London, as foreign minister Johnson was quick to align all of Britain's foreign policies with the European Union, as if he was its most obedient member. He did so not only at Israel's expense, but at the expense of Anglo-American ties.

When the Trump administration withdrew the US from the UN Human Rights Council due to the council's structural anti-Semitism and anti-Americanism, not only did Johnson not follow suit, he sped off to Geneva, appeared before the UNHRC, and pledged Britain's undying allegiance to the body.

When the Trump administration abandoned the nuclear deal with Iran which enriched the terrorist regime, enabling it to expand its terrorist campaigns on multiple fronts and gave Teheran an open road to a nuclear arsenal within a decade, Johnson didn't merely oppose the move. He worked with his French and German counterparts to develop a financial exchange to bypass US economic sanctions on Iran.

Now, as Prime Minister, aside from paying lip service to the Trump administration's efforts to extend the UN embargo against Iran which is set to expire in October, Johnson is doing nothing.

As to Israel specifically, Johnson's tenure as foreign minister was an unremitting disappointment.

In March 2017 Johnson paid an official visit to Israel. Before meeting with Netanyahu, Johnson went on a very public tour in Judea with the heads of Peace Now. British taxpayers are some of the largest funders of the radical Israeli NGO that has long acted on behalf of foreign governments interested in subverting the property rights of Israeli Jews in Judea and Samaria.

When Johnson was asked whether he intended to meet with the leaders of the Council of Israeli communities in Judea and Samaria to hear the other side of the story, he scoffed.

Parroting the anti-Semitic lingo of the well-groomed anti-Israel mob, Johnson insisted – as a friend – that Israel has two choices: It can fork over all of Judea and Samaria and eastern, southern and northern Jerusalem to the PLO, (otherwise known as "the two-state solution"), or it can become an apartheid state.

Johnson, to be sure is vastly preferable to Labour's anti-Semitic leader Jeremy Corbyn. But the mere fact that Johnson doesn't hate Jews doesn't make him a friend of the Jewish state.

The disparity between Johnson's iconoclastic, flamboyant rhetoric and his rush to conform with the anti-American, anti-Israel, post-nationalist foreign policy establishment shows that Johnson can talk the talk of leadership but he cannot walk the walk. He will not be remembered as a leader of historic dimensions. He will be remembered as a blowhard.

This brings us to Johnson's disappointed partners – President Donald Trump on the one hand and to Netanyahu on the other. Like Johnson, their futures in office and their legacies will be determined by what they do, not by what they say.

To a large degree, until the sudden appearance of Covid-19 and the riots across America, Trump's presidency was a textbook case of talking the talk and walking the walk. Trump does not inspire the hatred of well-heeled establishment types just because of his flamboyant style. They hate him because he has matched his rhetoric with action.

In the Middle East, Trump said Barack Obama had betrayed Israel and the US's Sunni Arab partners to cozy up to Iran. Trump promised to restore those alliances. And he did.

Trump promised to abandon Obama's nuclear deal with Iran. And he did. He said he would develop and implement a sanctions policy to bring Iran to its knees. And he did.

Now, with the UN arms embargo about to expire, and Iran at the edge of nuclear breakout, that policy faces a make or break moment. With the Europeans unwilling to act to prolong the arms embargo, Trump has only one option – restore all UN sanctions on Iran, including the arms embargo by invoking the snapback clause of Security Council Resolution 2231.

UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which anchored the nuclear deal stipulates that if Iran is in breach of the deal, a member of the Security Council can trigger a restoration of the UN Security Council sanctions against Iran for its illicit nuclear activities which were suspended as part of the deal's implementation. Iran is now openly enriching and stockpiling uranium in quantities well beyond what is permitted under the deal to the point where according to the IAEA, Iran is on the verge of nuclear breakout capacity.

Ignoring the text of the resolution, the EU, Russia, and others are falsely arguing that when the US walked away from the nuclear deal, it ceased to be authorized to trigger the snapback clause. Asserting the US's legal right to trigger the sanctions will require an ugly fight. But right now, that is the only way to achieve the aim Trump has declared – preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power and a regional hegemon. If he has this fight, he will win it and secure his achievements. If he walks away from this fight, his entire Iran policy will fail and Iran will race to the nuclear finish line.

This brings us to Israel itself. Trump promised to move the US embassy to Jerusalem. And he did. He said he would reject the failed peace paradigm of his predecessors and replace it with a vision based on reality. And he did.

Now that plan and Trump's Middle East legacy face a make or break moment.

Trump recognized that all the peace plans offered up by his predecessors failed because they were based on the anti-Israel falsehood that the cause of the enduring Palestinian conflict with Israel was Israel's size. Trump recognized that the real problem isn't how large Israel is but the Palestinians' historic rejection of Israel's right to exist at any size and their determination to annihilate Israel – large or small.

To start negotiations, the Palestinians must take concrete steps to show they are changing. For instance, they need to stop paying salaries to terrorists who have killed Israelis.

As to Israel itself, whereas his predecessors' plans reject Israel's legal rights to sovereignty in Judea and Samaria, Trump accepts this legal reality. He also recognizes that Israel has critical national and strategic interests tied up with the areas. To secure those rights and interests, Trump said in January that he will recognize Israeli sovereignty over some of the areas – specifically the Israeli communities in Judea and Samaria and the Jordan Valley as soon as Israel applies those rights.

Now it appears the weight of the foreign policy establishment is taking a toll on Trump and he is losing his nerve. For weeks, reports have flowed that Trump has soured on his own plan. He doesn't know if he wants to back Israeli sovereignty as he pledged to do at the White House in January. Maybe at the end of the day, Israel's rights are subject to an EU veto if not a Palestinian one.

If these reports are correct, Trump's weakness won't win him supporters. It will empower his opponents who will erase all of the things he has done and return US Middle East policy to the anti-Israel fantasy track it has operated on since 1993.

What goes for Trump goes for Netanyahu ten times over. What Netanyahu does over the next few weeks will determine if he goes down in history as one of the greatest Jewish leaders of all time, or if he is remembered as a disappointment of Sabbatean proportions.

Since he was first elected Prime Minister in 1996, Netanyahu has faced two main challenges: Preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and securing Israel's rights and interests in Judea and Samaria in the face of Palestinian rejectionism and terrorism and in the midst of phony peace process supported by the foreign policy establishment, the Israeli left, and the international left.

After 24 years, both of these issues have reached a moment of truth.

Setting aside the issue of the mysterious explosions in areas in and around Iran's nuclear installations, Netanyahu's primary task diplomatically is to clear a path for Trump to enact the snap-back sanctions just as he cleared the path for Trump to exit the nuclear deal in 2018.

As for the Palestinians, in 1996, Netanyahu was elected prime minister because he was the leader of the opposition to the phony Oslo peace process with the PLO. As Netanyahu and his supporters warned, the Oslo process was a strategic mistake. In due course, it failed and it caused Israel unspeakable damage. More than 1,500 Israelis were killed because of the terrorist whirlwind Oslo reaped and Israel's international standing dropped to new lows.

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Despite Oslo's total failure, throughout his years in power, until the Trump presidency, Netanyahu lacked the strategic opportunity to replace it with a different vision for Judea and Samaria and Israel's relations with the Palestinians.

Netanyahu's sovereignty plan is that vision.

The Oslo process is predicated on a denial of Israel's rights in Judea and Samaria. While it pays lip service to Israel's security needs, in practice it undermines them.

Netanyahu's sovereignty plan is predicated on Israel asserting and the US recognizing Israel's rights to Judea and Samaria on the one hand, and Israel securing in perpetuity its vital security interests. Here too, in the face of Trump's hesitation and his coalition partners' efforts to subvert him, Netanyahu is wavering. He missed the July 1 target date he had declared for implementing his plan. Now there is talk of him putting it off until some later date, which of course, will never arrive.

If Netanyahu stays the course and implements his plan now, he will secure his political power now. More importantly, he will be remembered in the annals of Jewish history as a leader of historic proportions. If Netanyahu wavers, if he fails to carry through on his plan, he will lose his political position and be remembered as an Israeli version of Boris Johnson – nothing more than a smooth-talking charlatan.

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"An MK taking part in an event in support of terrorism, with Israel's worst enemies, is insufferable and I am not willing to accept it," said Knesset Speaker Yariv Levin.

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Levin noted that the Knesset has disqualified MKs who cooperate with the enemy from running for election, but those decisions have been overturned repeatedly by the Supreme Court.

Levin's colleagues in the Likud party voiced similar sentiments.

MK Michal Shir reached out to Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit and asked him to investigate Odeah, adding that at the event in question, Fatah and Hamas had announced "an intifada against the state of Israel."

"An MK participating in that conference, without clearly opposing violence, is like actual incitement to terrorism," Shir said.

MK Shlomo Karai (Likud) filed a complaint about Odeh's appearance at the conference with the Knesset Ethics Committee, characterizing it as "support for terrorism" and asking that the committee take severe disciplinary steps against Odeh.

Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman said, "Odeh took part in a virtual conference held by Fatah and Hamas about Netanyahu's virtual annexation. I hope that Odeh and his friends become 'virtual,' just like the conference."

The event in question was an online joint press conference at which senior Palestinian Authority official Jibril Rajoub attacked the Israeli plan, saying, "We will use all the necessary tools in order to reach national unity."

He added that "we and Hamas have had a cordial dialog and we have reached a point in which we want all factions to collaborate together to further our national goals." He vowed to "continue fighting as part of our struggle for a sovereign state."

Appearing via video feed from Beirut, Hamas deputy political leader Saleh Arouri focused on Israel, saying: "If they manage to implement the annexation plan in the West Bank this will whet their appetite for annexation of other areas; after annexing, Israel will have to deal with the Palestinian issue in the West Bank, and it has already used expulsion and uprooting before. Israel sees the West Bank as the Promised Land, and they are ready to carry out dangerous maneuvers there."

Rajoub also said that "for us, an intifada is a tool. The goal is to end the occupation and take annexation off the table."

Representatives of Odeh said that he had attended the conference in order to promote intra-Palestinian reconciliation.

"Keeping up the rifts serves only those who want to continue the occupation and establish apartheid," the message said. "Anyone who supports the two-state solution should also support reconciliation."

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Speaking to Israel Hayom, Evans says that if the Trump administration fails to recognize Israel's sovereignty bid, the evangelical community would not be able to support him in November.

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Evans is currently in Washington and on Tuesday met with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to award him a medal for his support of Israel. Evans praises the administration and its leaders for their support for Israel, calling them a "dream team."

According to Evans, Pompeo has changed State Department's position on Israel for the better, and Vice President Mike Pence is Israel's "biggest supporter" in Washington, not to mention US President Donald Trump himself, whom Evans says is the greatest supporter the evangelical community has ever had.

Evans says that the evangelical community "gave" Trump the presidency for two reasons: his anti-abortion stance, and his support for Israel. Evans says that evangelical Christians in the US believe that Israel belongs to the Jewish people, as stated in the Bible.

However, he warns, if Trump does not recognize a decision by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare sovereignty, he will lose the evangelical vote. All the "amazing" things he has done for Israel show what path he wants to take, Evans says, which is why the evangelical leader is "certain" that he will not break his promise to support Israel.

"He can't win without the evangelical vote," he stresses.

Evans says that various advisors to the president are not helping him by suggesting that he renege on his promise to recognize Israel's sovereignty plan.

According to Evans, he has 73 million pro-Israel followers on Facebook who "want to support the president and want him to support Israel," so if any of Trump's advisors try to prevent that from happening, he and his followers will do everything they can to see him "fired."

Ultimately, Evans thinks that the sovereignty plan will go ahead and be approved by the US.

Everything will be fine, he says, like it was after the US recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu is shifting gears in discussions about the declaration of sovereignty. A message issued by his office on Wednesday said that he was keeping up talks with the Americans and met on Wednesday with the head of the National Security Council and leaders of Israel's defense establishment.

"More meetings are expected over the next few days," his office said.

Also on Wednesday, head of the Intelligence Division in the National Security Council Ran Peled told the Knesset Control Committee that the Diplomatic Security Cabinet would discuss the issue of sovereignty at its upcoming meeting.

In a related development, Nabil Shaath, an advisor to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas told a Russian news outlet that the PA would be willing to resume negotiations with Israel if Israel gave up on declaring sovereignty. He set another precondition for talks, saying that negotiations would have to be based on UN resolutions and be mediated by the international Quartet, rather than by the US alone.

Senior PA officials met with left-wing Israeli activists in Jericho on Wednesday to protest the planned declaration of sovereignty. Jibril Rajoub of the Fatah movement said, "The entire world, as well as those in Israel who desire peace, are standing up to Bibi, US Ambassador [David] Friedman, and his bullies to stop the annexation plan." 

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Still, Tuesday's drill was somewhat different, not in content – although it took place in a high-tech installation belonging to the defense technology manufacturer Elbit – but in its timing. Duchifat, like other battalions currently in training, has one eye permanently trained on events in Judea and Samaria and is always prepared to be called up for an operation.

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Also, the original target date for Israel's planned declaration of sovereignty in the Jordan Valley and settlements in Judea and Samaria is here and the IDF is currently refraining from bolstering forces in the latter area. This is not because the military knows something about what the government intends to do, but because the opposite is true, the prime minister has yet to inform the IDF, the Shin Bet security agency, or the Israel Police on his exact intentions.

The IDF has decided not to step up its forces because, despite the inherent volatility of the plans to announce sovereignty, things are still relatively quiet on the ground. The forces already operating there are sufficient to handle the ongoing work of preventing terrorism, arresting fugitives, and executing operations in the settlements and on the surrounding roads. The military is concerned that a significant deployment of more personnel would increase friction between Israelis and Palestinians and be a catalyst for increased violence.

However, over the past few months, the IDF has been busy preparing for an outbreak of violence in Judea and Samaria. These preparations are part of a plan to upgrade the army's infrastructure and technological capabilities in the area. The IDF has acquired new tools for use in an emergency situation – including aircraft and observation posts, intelligence capabilities, and professional forces, as well as riot dispersal equipment.

Meanwhile, all forces have been preparing to handle renewed terrorist violence. Commander of the Judea Samaria Division, Lt. Col. Yaniv Elaluf, has spent the past few weeks drilling all the battalions in Judea and Samaria to ensure that they are ready for any scenario, even though the IDF does not currently have any intelligence about Palestinian intentions to oppose a declaration of sovereignty through violence.

The main worry in the defense and security establishment is that a "negative dynamic" could be created when and if Israel declares sovereignty. Last month, the Palestinian Authority cut off all contact with Israel, while also stopping salaries to PA employees in an attempt to create "popular pressure" that would lead to "authentic opposition" to Israel's sovereignty plans.

For now, the Palestinian public isn't showing any particular interest in the diplomatic developments. Like Israelis, they are mainly preoccupied with coronavirus and its economic fallout. But the worse things get, the less quiet Judea and Samaria might become, and frustrations might turn into violence against Israel.

If that comes to pass, the IDF will send a huge contingent of forces into Judea and Samaria, and possibly the Gaza Strip, as well. Although the Hamas leadership in Gaza has not shown any enthusiasm for a possible clash with Israel, it seems unlikely that it would ignore an Israeli declaration of sovereignty and will be forced to take action in the form of attempted terrorist attacks in Judea and Samaria. Hamas might also decide to reinstate the violent border protests and go back to sending arson balloons and kites over the fence in an attempt to start wildfires in Israel.

So the IDF is trying to ready itself in the face of a number of unknown factors: what exactly Israel intends to do, and the ramifications of any Israeli action in relation to the Palestinians and other key players in both the region and the world. The prevailing assumption is there will be some response from the Palestinians, but its intensity will correlate to the extent of how much territory will be brought under Israeli law; the timing of the decision's implementation; and what steps Israel takes to calm things down. The Defense Ministry has prepared a series of potential benefits for the Palestinians, mostly having to do with economics and employment, that are intended to take the edge of their criticism of the move and blunt any violent opposition to it.

Defense and security officials expect Israel's declaration of sovereignty to propel Judea and Samaria into a volatile period, which will last three to four months. This will require the IDF to stay on high alert in an area that thus far has been relatively calm, at the expense of other operational zones. An outbreak of violence could also cause the army to change its operational schedule and require additional budgets at a time of great economic hardship for Israel as a whole. 

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What's happening today, July 1?

July 1 is the start date, not the deadline. Based on the coalition agreement between the Likud and its partners, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is permitted, as of July 1, to seek approval for the initiative from the government or Knesset. In other words, even if nothing changes on July 1 – regardless of the political complexity in Israel and the criticism from abroad, the Americans and Netanyahu view July-August as a window of opportunity to implement the plan. Hence, the most we will likely see happen on July 1 is a declaration or statement, but not a government resolution or Knesset legislation.

What areas have been mentioned as possible designations for sovereignty?

The sovereignty map is in constant fluctuation. On the table are the Jordan Valley, the large settlement blocs including Ariel, Maale Adumim and Gush Etzion, the greater Jerusalem area, or perhaps communities farther afield in Judea and Samaria, such as Beit El and Shiloh. Also being discussed is the scope of future sovereignty – will it be 30% of Judea and Samaria, as initially discussed, or a far smaller percentage? A decision is still forthcoming.  

Why is the right-wing camp split on this issue?

Because, ultimately the Trump peace plan, of which the Israeli sovereignty initiative is a part, envisions a Palestinian state. The right-wing detractors don't believe the Palestinians will be held to the extremely stringent preconditions for establishing such a state, such as demilitarizing Gaza and ending "pay-for-slay." On the other side, the supporters of the plan believe these concerns are baseless and that the benefits of the Trump plan far outweigh the costs.

What is Netanyahu's position?

The prime minister had a considerable role in drafting the plan, and he supports it wholeheartedly. In private conversations, he still mentions his burning desire to apply sovereignty, but he hasn't used all of his political capital yet; that is to say, he still hasn't called Trump.

What is Blue and White leader Benny Gantz's position?

Gantz has vacillated. During his visit to the Jordan Valley prior to the first election, he vowed to "work to apply sovereignty." When he met with Trump in January and many times after that, he hailed the Trump plan and stated he was committed to it. On Monday, in the presence of Trump's special Middle East envoy Avi Berkowitz, Gantz changed his tune and said, "Whatever is unrelated to combating the coronavirus, can wait." In other words: The sovereignty issue, from his perspective, is off the table.

What options do the Palestinians have?

They can always start negotiating with Israel, which would be the best and most effective way, from their vantage point, to squash the sovereignty initiative. But, as the saying goes, "the Palestinians have never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity," and they refuse to sit down and talk. It should also be noted that according to the Trump plan, the Palestinians must meet certain preconditions before negotiations can begin – and it's doubtful they want to do so.

What is the position of Arab countries?

Among the Arab countries, only Jordan is actually troubled by the sovereignty push. King Abdullah II is afraid that possible riots in Judea and Samaria will spill into Jordan and destabilize his throne. The objections being voiced by other Arab countries – which are bolstering ties with Israel due to the Iranian threat – appear to be nothing more than lip service.

Can the international community "exact a price" from Israel?

Yes, but not a hefty price. The main damage is expected to come from countries in Western Europe, which are fuming over the plan. A small handful will apparently recognize a Palestinian state, and the European Union will likely reduce budgets for development and research projects in Israel. It's clear we'll also be hit with a barrage of condemnations, and that many years into the future "enlightened Europe" will denounce Israeli sovereignty just as it still denounces construction in Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria.

What is the "phases" plan?

Amid the backdrop of reservations from the Blue and White party, and apparently from the White House as well, Netanyahu proposed dividing sovereignty implementation into two parts. The first phase would be limited in scope to only include a small portion of the territory. If and when regional and international reactions become more tolerable, and if Trump is re-elected in November, sovereignty could be applied as originally planned.

Could the sovereignty issue undermine the government's stability?

Absolutely. From the outset, Gantz's sovereignty vision has been negligible in scope. He also seeks to apply it through international coordination. Netanyahu, meanwhile, is pursuing sovereignty over far more territory and has largely discounted the rest of the world. Now that Gantz wants to postpone the initiative until "after corona," this rift is another source of acrimony in a coalition that cannot stop fighting.

So will there be sovereignty?

It's all up to Israel.

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