Many unanswered questions still remain about Israel's intention to apply sovereignty in Judea and Samaria and the Jordan Valley. Israel Hayom tries making sense of the most pressing topic on the national agenda:
What's happening today, July 1?
July 1 is the start date, not the deadline. Based on the coalition agreement between the Likud and its partners, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is permitted, as of July 1, to seek approval for the initiative from the government or Knesset. In other words, even if nothing changes on July 1 – regardless of the political complexity in Israel and the criticism from abroad, the Americans and Netanyahu view July-August as a window of opportunity to implement the plan. Hence, the most we will likely see happen on July 1 is a declaration or statement, but not a government resolution or Knesset legislation.
What areas have been mentioned as possible designations for sovereignty?
The sovereignty map is in constant fluctuation. On the table are the Jordan Valley, the large settlement blocs including Ariel, Maale Adumim and Gush Etzion, the greater Jerusalem area, or perhaps communities farther afield in Judea and Samaria, such as Beit El and Shiloh. Also being discussed is the scope of future sovereignty – will it be 30% of Judea and Samaria, as initially discussed, or a far smaller percentage? A decision is still forthcoming.
Why is the right-wing camp split on this issue?
Because, ultimately the Trump peace plan, of which the Israeli sovereignty initiative is a part, envisions a Palestinian state. The right-wing detractors don't believe the Palestinians will be held to the extremely stringent preconditions for establishing such a state, such as demilitarizing Gaza and ending "pay-for-slay." On the other side, the supporters of the plan believe these concerns are baseless and that the benefits of the Trump plan far outweigh the costs.
What is Netanyahu's position?
The prime minister had a considerable role in drafting the plan, and he supports it wholeheartedly. In private conversations, he still mentions his burning desire to apply sovereignty, but he hasn't used all of his political capital yet; that is to say, he still hasn't called Trump.
What is Blue and White leader Benny Gantz's position?
Gantz has vacillated. During his visit to the Jordan Valley prior to the first election, he vowed to "work to apply sovereignty." When he met with Trump in January and many times after that, he hailed the Trump plan and stated he was committed to it. On Monday, in the presence of Trump's special Middle East envoy Avi Berkowitz, Gantz changed his tune and said, "Whatever is unrelated to combating the coronavirus, can wait." In other words: The sovereignty issue, from his perspective, is off the table.
What options do the Palestinians have?
They can always start negotiating with Israel, which would be the best and most effective way, from their vantage point, to squash the sovereignty initiative. But, as the saying goes, "the Palestinians have never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity," and they refuse to sit down and talk. It should also be noted that according to the Trump plan, the Palestinians must meet certain preconditions before negotiations can begin – and it's doubtful they want to do so.
What is the position of Arab countries?
Among the Arab countries, only Jordan is actually troubled by the sovereignty push. King Abdullah II is afraid that possible riots in Judea and Samaria will spill into Jordan and destabilize his throne. The objections being voiced by other Arab countries – which are bolstering ties with Israel due to the Iranian threat – appear to be nothing more than lip service.
Can the international community "exact a price" from Israel?
Yes, but not a hefty price. The main damage is expected to come from countries in Western Europe, which are fuming over the plan. A small handful will apparently recognize a Palestinian state, and the European Union will likely reduce budgets for development and research projects in Israel. It's clear we'll also be hit with a barrage of condemnations, and that many years into the future "enlightened Europe" will denounce Israeli sovereignty just as it still denounces construction in Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria.
What is the "phases" plan?
Amid the backdrop of reservations from the Blue and White party, and apparently from the White House as well, Netanyahu proposed dividing sovereignty implementation into two parts. The first phase would be limited in scope to only include a small portion of the territory. If and when regional and international reactions become more tolerable, and if Trump is re-elected in November, sovereignty could be applied as originally planned.
Could the sovereignty issue undermine the government's stability?
Absolutely. From the outset, Gantz's sovereignty vision has been negligible in scope. He also seeks to apply it through international coordination. Netanyahu, meanwhile, is pursuing sovereignty over far more territory and has largely discounted the rest of the world. Now that Gantz wants to postpone the initiative until "after corona," this rift is another source of acrimony in a coalition that cannot stop fighting.
So will there be sovereignty?
It's all up to Israel.
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