Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is fickle and unpredictable, a high-ranking security official recently warned Israel's political leadership. The official recommended that Israel be cautious in the face of Turkey's gestures, which he said are designed to use Israel to put Erdogan back in a position to influence the Biden administration. Israel should respect him, but be wary, the official concluded.

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The warning didn't come out of the clear blue sky. The Israeli security establishment is warning the political echelon not to get overexcited and rush into normalization with Turkey.

While the possibility of a meeting in Istanbul between Erdogan and President Isaac Herzog – which Erdogan mentioned only a few days ago – is sparking hope in the Foreign Ministry, security experts are trying to calm everyone down. The defense and security apparatus is keeping tabs on the latest romance with Turkey – which used to be Israel's strategic, military, and intelligence partner but which in the past decade has opened its arms to Hamas and other branches of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Middle East. Officials are also worried that a number of understandings and agreements between Israel and allies such as Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus could be affected if Jerusalem moves toward Ankara.

Information making its way to the defense and security establishment these past few months is worrying. While Erdogan is laying the groundwork and preparing Turkish public opinion for a change to relations with Israel, and senior Israeli officials are in contact with head of Turkey's National Intelligence Organization Hakan Fidan, a Hamas command continues to operate in Turkey and execute terrorist attacks and attempted attacks in Israel, Judea, and Samaria.

Israel is looking into a recent report that Turkey has deported a number of Hamas operatives, but in general, Hamas in Turkey continues to operate its Istanbul headquarters, recruiting Arab Israelis and Palestinian Arabs for intelligence work and to carry out terrorist attacks. Senior Hamas member Salah al-Arouri, whom Turkey supposedly deported at Israel's request, continues to handle his people there and even organize training and target practice in Turkey.

The possibility that Turkey and Israel could resume cooperation on intelligence is also causing some misgivings. Israel used to be worried that Turkey handed Israeli information over to Iran. Foreign media reports claimed that Turkey has exposed the identities of local Iranian agents who met with their Mossad handlers, and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak used to say that Fidan was "pro-Iran."

The fact that a few leaders of Turkey's defense establishment today are identified as Muslim Brotherhood members, along with Turkey's ties with Iran, does nothing to boost the low level of trust between Israel and Turkey.

From Iran to Turkey to the West Bank

The distant history is well-known. The more recent history – less so. Only a month and a half ago the Shin Bet security agency arrested four members of a Hamas cell in the village of Zurif near Hebron. The cell had been directed from Turkey by Abd Rahman Raminat, an associate of Arouri who was released in the prisoner exchange deal for captive soldier Gilad Schalit.

The Hamas network in Judea and Samaria that the Shin Bet exposed a month prior to those arrests, which was plotting major terrorist attacks, including shootings, abductions, and suicide bombings, was also being handled from Turkey by Arouri and Zakria Najib, an east Jerusalem native who was one of the men who kidnapped IDF soldier Nachshon Wachsman and who was also released in the Schalit deal.

According to indictments filed against three east Jerusalem residents, Najib had formerly tried to enlist Adham Musselmani, a resident of the Shuefat refugee camp, to kill one of three possible targets: former Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat, former Israel Police Commissioner Roni Alsheikh, or former MK Yehuda Glick. He even reportedly offered Musselmani money and training in Turkey.

Now Najib is once again in the heart of things, and once again running a terrorist infrastructure, which was exposed at the end of 2021 and included 50 Hamas members from different parts of the West Bank. Israel, in a gesture of thanks to Turkey for releasing Natali and Mordi Oknin, postponed the announcement about the network.

The Shin Bet statement about the West Bank network reported that agents had recovered weapons, explosives belts, and guns, as well as considerable sums of money sent to the operatives. The message left out the name of the country from which the money originated – Turkey.

Turkey has long since become a base from which Hamas handles it monetary operations and funds terrorist plots in Judea and Samaria. On Sept. 10, 2019, the US Commerce Department announced it would be applying sanctions to 15 terrorist operatives and money changers that help terrorist organizations, and published a list that included operatives and companies in Turkey that helped transfer money to Hamas.

The Americans also reported that the main source of the money sent to Hamas from Turkey (and sometimes through Lebanon) is Iran, and that Iran's Quds Force is responsible for directing the funds.

The killer visited Turkey

The American report mentioned the name Zaher Jabarin, a high-ranking Hamas official in Turkey, as having sent hundreds of thousands of dollars to Judea and Samaria to fund Hamas terrorist activity.

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Israel suspects that Jabarin, who has been appointed deputy leader of Hamas in the West Bank, is still involved in similar activity from Turkey and that he was involved in a recently-exposed system of money transfers in the West Bank. Jabarin is responsible for building up Hamas' military capabilities from the organization's headquarters in Istanbul.

The headquarters also oversees the development of Hamas' maritime and rocket capabilities, as well as its cyberwarfare, development of new weapons, and the transfer of Iranian money. It also has a branch in Lebanon, and Israel has demanded that Turkey put a stop to all these activities.

An interesting question that has yet to be answered, at least publicly, is whether the killer of Eliyahu David Kay in the Old City of Jerusalem some two months ago was trained and handled from Turkey. Fai Abu Shkhaydam, a prominent opponent of Jews being allowed to visit the Temple Mount, who has connections to senior members of the Jordanian Waqf on the Temple Mount, paid a number of visits to Turkey in recent years, meeting with Hamas operatives there. After he killed Kay, Shkhaydam and his family were "congratulated" by Hamas leader abroad Ismail Haniyeh and Arouri, who oversees the direction of terrorist attacks in the West Bank from Turkey, Lebanon, Qatar, or wherever else he happens to be.

As if that weren't enough, a couple of weeks ago a senior Waqf official, Fadi Alian, was arrested. The indictment filed against him in the Jerusalem District Court says that Alian had purchased a homemade Carlo machine gun near Nablus and given them to a family member, who used it to carry out three shooting attacks on police operating in east Jerusalem. Alian, like Shkhaydam, was part of attempts to attack Jews visiting the Temple Mount.

There is another piece of information that points to the key role Turkey plays in Hamas' terrorist operations. About six weeks ago, Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked signed an order preventing 11 residents of east Jerusalem known to be high-ranking members of Hamas and Al-Shabab al-Aqsa from leaving the country. Shaked was presented with hard intelligence about each one, showing that they were poised to receive instructions from Turkey about when and where to commit terrorist actions.

Did Shkhaydam receive similar guidance? There is no clear answer, but Shaked signed the orders three weeks after Kay's murder.

According to the information presented to Shaked, the 11 east Jerusalem residents not allowed to leave the country include Sufian Fahri Abdu from Jabal Mukabar. Some 20 years ago, he plotted to poison diners at a restaurant in central Jerusalem. In total, he has spent 16 years in prison.

The group also reportedly includes Nasser Issa Jalal Hadmi, who wasn't allowed to leave the country even when Arye Deri was serving as interior minister. Hadmi and four others were barred from traveling for allegedly transferring money from foreign countries to Hamas in Israel; supporting the Murabitat project on the Temple Mount to keep Jewish visitors away through steady harassment; and promoting dawa activity to set up community and educational institutions that operate according to the ideology of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Another detainee on Shaked's list is Rami Zakaria Ibrahim Barakeh from Sur Baher, who has served time in prison for Hamas activity. The Shin Bet says Barakeh was a high-ranking member of Hamas in east Jerusalem and active in project Hamas co-operated on the Temple Mount with the Northern Branch of the Islamic Movement, which like the Murabitat was designed to prevent visits by Jews.

Approximately a year and a half ago, Israel handed Turkey intelligence and proof, including a list of names, that appeared to show that Hamas operatives were handling terrorism against Israel from the organization's offices in Istanbul. For years, Israel has been demanding that Turkey deport dozens of Hamas operatives, some of whom have even adopted Turkish citizenship, noting that the ongoing Hamas activity in Turkey goes against understandings between Turkey, Israel, and the US, particularly understandings reached in the reconciliation agreement that supposedly ended the Turkish-Israel crisis that followed the Marmara incident of 2010. Turkey has consistently denied that Hamas is organizing any terrorist activity from inside its borders and claims that the organization's work in Turkey is strictly "political," and thereby does not violate the understandings.

As Turkey continues to woo Israel, an unusual message the Shin Bet put out a few years ago, just after Israel deported Turkish lawyer Cemil Tekeli, who was recruited by Zaher Jabarin, is still relevant. At the time, the Shin Bet said that "Turkey is contributing to Hamas' military growth" and that "Hamas' extensive military and financial activity in Turkey continues without any hindrance, with the Turkish regime ignoring it and sometimes even encouraging it, and help from Turkish civilians, some of whom have ties to the regime."

Israel security and defense establishment wants to remind the government of these warnings after moths in which Turkey tries to cozy up to Israel while attempted terrorist attacks and terrorist plots Hamas directs from Turkey are continually thwarted.

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The Israel Police and the Shin Bet security agency are still exercising caution and are not calling the last eight stabbing and shooting attacks in Jerusalem – and dozens of other attacks and attempted attacks nationwide in the past 10 weeks – a wave of terrorism. The Israeli public, on the other hand, has been forced to acknowledge that "shahada" – a martyr's death – is seeing a renaissance in Palestinian society. 

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The many terrorist attacks have led to greater focus on the "shahid" and their qualities in Palestinian media and social media. This focus never shifted, but is now taking up more space. The relevant Quran quote is also being thrown around frequently: "And do not say about those who are killed in the way of Allah, 'They are dead.' Rather, they are alive, with their lord, and they have provision."  

Now Israel Hayom is exposing the wills of the terrorists, both those who were killed during the attacks and those who lived through them, and their motives. The wills teach us about the harsh terminology that arises from their last letters and social media posts – what they leave behind. 

Former mufti of Jerusalem Sheikh Ikrama Sabri explained during the Second Intifada that "the Muslim loves death and martyrdom like the Jews love life." The wills of the latest two shahids who, unfortunately, managed to carry out their plans, illustrate Sabri's remark. They both wanted to die. Mohammed Shawkat Salima, who last Saturday fell on Haredi youth Avraham Elmaliach near Damascus Gate in the Old City of Jerusalem and wounded him badly before he was fatally shot by security forces, posted on his old Facebook page a post in which he defined himself as "a martyr on the waiting list." 

"May Allah soon bring me to him," Salima wrote alongside a picture of another Palestinian, Sab Abu Abid, who was killed in clashes with the IDF in 2017. 

Fadi Abu Shkhaydam, who murdered Eliyahu Kay near the Western Wall, was also fatally shot. Before leaving to carry out his planned attack, he left a much more detailed will than Salima's, in which he claimed that "after years of work, study, and teaching, there is no choice but to let the ship said on our blood and serve as a practical example in the field of jihad." 

Until recently, Abu Shkhaydam, a member of Hamas, had a working relationship with high-ranking members of the Muslim Waqf on the Temple Mount and only four months ago finished running a course offered by the Waqf titled "The Battalion of Resilience and Ribat." 

He also took care to integrate "ribat" – an Islamic term that describes taking one's place at the front of a holy war against infidels – in his will, in which he wrote, "The best path for us in light of the abuse of our mosque [Al-Aqsa Mosque – N.S.] is to redeem it with our blood. We have no honorable life so long as our mosque undergoes one failure after another and so long as the assaults against it increase. Therefore, prepare yourselves for ribat, for jihad, for sacrifice, and to give your life and throw off the bonds of this world." 

The written statements the killer left behind are unusual when compared to the wills of other murderers of his profile, because Abu Shkhaydam went beyond background and explanation for his planned action and actually instructed the hundreds of pupils he left behind to prepare themselves for similar acts in the future. 

Half leave wills

Nor are Abu Shkhaydam and Salima alone. A look through dozens of wills reveals not only the terrorists' motives, but also their need to share their "legacies" with large audiences and win legitimacy for their deeds. 

For Israel's security forces, the wills are a treasure trove that enables them to heighten the precision of the system that tracks hundreds of thousands of internet users and social media participants each day, hoping to thwart similar attacks. Authorities think that hundreds of attacks have been prevented this way. 

The scope of the tracking and location work is enormous, especially at times of tension around the Temple Mount. In a single day after the shooting attack on the Mount itself in July 2017, over 500,000 posts from the PA territories and the Arab world went up discussing the situation on the Mount. Many intended or directly called for terrorist attacks. 

The wills, however, often tell a story that is not religious or nationalist, but one of personal distress that led the attacker to carry out their plan. Mohammad Younis, who last week ran his car into a security guard at the Te'enim checkpoint, is believed to have argued with his father before taking his car without permission and deciding to become a martyr. 

Other times, the motive is revenge or identification with other shahids, what the Shin Bet calls "copycat attacks" or "infection." In the case of Tharwat Ibrahim Salman Al-Shawari, 72, a mother of five who tried to run down soldiers near Halhul, the attacker had a sense that her death was approaching. She had told her relatives that if she was going to die, it would be better to do so as a shahid rather than "in bed," as she called it. 

Some 50% of terrorists who carried out attacks or attempted to in the last few years left behind some kind of will. The most common motive documented in the wills is the situation of Al-Aqsa Mosque and the desire to defend it from "Jewish invasion," a reference to Jewish visits to the Mount. In Palestinian society, the Al-Aqsa shahids are considered the elite, celebrities in every sense, and guarantee themselves a place of honor in the Palestinian pantheon of martyrs. Their wills are according popular. 

This is the kind of fame that came to Abu Shkhaydam, who wrote to his "brothers and comrades in dawa and Islamic activity" that "our blessed words and dawa, with which we have been busy since we were young, demand that we sacrifice and give our lives so that our words will not stay dead or without life." (Translation courtesy of MEMRI). 

Abu Shkhaydam even appealed directly to his students: "In every meeting I was sorry [to hear] that someone had beat me to Paradise by attacking [the enemy]. I would tell you stories about them, from friends of the Prophet to the lions of Islam of our time. Long live Allah. I never ceased to weep when I would tell you about them, but I would prepare myself and prepare to join them and follow their path … I command every one of you to adhere to this path." 

One of the "lions of Islam" about whom he taught his students was Mesbah Abu Sabih, who left behind a chilling will of his own. Abu Sabih, known to his admirers as the "lion of Al-Quds," murdered Levana Malichi and Yosef Kirma in a shooting attack at the light train station on Bar Lev Blvd. in Jerusalem in October 2016. 

Abu Sabih was also a member of Hamas. He also wanted to prevent Jews from visiting the Temple Mount. Like Abu Shkhaydam, he taught the Quran at a mosque and the writings he left behind before he was fatally shot while carrying out his attack predicted what was to come, but were not identified in time. 

'A revolution has begun in Jerusalem'

Abu Sabih, whom Abu Shkhaydam admired, admitted he envied shahids and wanted to be like them. Among other things, he wrote that "Al-Aqsa Mosque is awash in blood," "was burned every day for 47 years and awaits someone who will put it out … do not abandon Al-Aqsa Mosque." In his will, he pleaded, "On Judgment Day, we will be asked what we did for Al-Aqsa Mosque to keep it part of the faith of every Muslim in the world." 

Without Al-Aqsa, he warned, "There will be blood. There are men who will redeem Al-Aqsa with their blood. Jerusalem sits on the mouth of a volcano that is about to erupt. Al-Aqsa Mosque is closed and the murderers of children invade it every day." But, he wrote, "In Jerusalem, a revolution has started that is not a revolution of rocks alone."

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Abu Sabih, who was a violent type with a criminal past, and Abu Shkhaydam, supposedly more learned and gentle, wrote nearly identical things. So did Mohammed Tarayreh, 19, who murdered Hillel Yaffa Ariel, 13, while she was sleeping in her bed in her home in Kiryat Arba in June 2016. 

Omar Al-Abed, a resident of Kobar who stabbed three members of the Salomon family as they were gathered around the Shabbat table in their home in Halmish, left a "last will and testament" on Facebook an hour and 40 minutes before leaving to kill. His writings also dealt with the "bitter fate of Al-Aqsa." 

"The mosque is being defiled and we sleep," Al-Abed scolded. "It is a disgrace for us to sit and do nothing. You, who pull out guns only at weddings and celebrations, are you not ashamed of yourselves? … All I have is a honed knife and it is answering the call of Al-Aqsa. I am going to Paradise, my home is there. I want nothing beyond that. Allah will judge whoever does not carry out my will. Put a band of Al-Qassem around my head and on my chest, a picture of Abu Amar [Yasser Arafat]. I will take them to the grave with me." 

'The noose is around my neck'

But it's not all about Al-Aqsa. Ibrahim Halas, who in April 2020 ran down a police officer at a checkpoint in Abu Dis and was fatally shot at the scene, connected his act to criminal trouble, writing, "They set the entire world against me, they ruined my life. The noose is already around my neck. From the time I was young, I drank alcohol and used drugs, but I am an honest and fair person and want to divorce my wife for these reasons, which have brought me to the edge." 

Nimer Mahmoud Jamal, who was 37 when he murdered three Israelis on Har Adar in September 2017, also did so because of personal problems. He had a long string of violent criminal offense, mostly domestic violence, and in his will he told his wife that she should not be troubled because of his actions. "You have nothing to do with what I am about to carry out. I was a bad husband and a bad father and you were a good wife and a caring mother. I tried to mend my ways, but I never could. You deserve a better life than the life you had with me." 

There are also attackers inspired by a desire to mimic or get revenge. Ayman Kurd, 20, who stabbed two police officers near Damascus Gate after his cousin Ramzi died in a shooting in Hebron, wrote to his mother: "Be sure that I did not do this because of anyone, but of my own will. I thought about it even before my 'brother' Ramzi died a martyr's death … Bury me in the shahids' graveyard near my brother Ramzi." Kurd even asked that his death be celebrated: "I want them to have a party for me." 

Longing to die 

Abada Abu Ras, the son of a senior Hamas official who was deported to London in the early 1990s, was responsible for a terrorist stabbing in Givat Zeev in January 2016. Two weeks earlier he had written: "I long for an event in which I will lose my life." Abu Ras posted a picture of his inspiration – Mohand Halabi, who murdered Nechemia Lavi and Aharon Benita three months earlier. 

Fuad Abu Rajab a-Tamimi from Issawiya in east Jerusalem, who opened fire on two police officers and was killed at the scene, left an explanation that he wanted to become a martyr. "My death was to sanctify and glorify Allah… Don't spread hatred in the hearts of my brothers after my death. Let them discover the religion and their own path, so they can die for the purpose of being a shahid and not as revenge." 

Qutaiba Zahran, 17, from the Tulkarem region, who stabbed a Border Police officer near Tapuah Junction and was shot and killed on the spot, wrote a long post on Facebook titled "The will of a shahid," in which he bid farewell to his family and explained that the attack he was about to perpetrate was to avenge the blood of "Palestine's shahids." 

The many wills and posts that the attackers prepare show that most assume they will die trying to carry out their plans. The catchy message that Yasser Arafat made popular years ago, "Millions of shahids are marching toward Jerusalem," is being voiced again now. If this is the case, it's hard to discuss deterrence, and what's more, Palestinian society for the most part embraces the martyrs and even praises them. In a reality like this, security forces' main focus is on preventing attacks through human intelligence as well as electronic means, and by being on the alert – as we have seen at Damascus Gate.

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In a visit to the Menashe Brigade on Sunday, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi discussed an operation carried out the previous night against Hamas infrastructure in the West Bank and called it an "important achievement."

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Saturday night's action entailed five coordinated arrest raids by the IDF, Israel Police special forces, and the Shin Bet security agency in various locations in northern Samaria. During the ensuing clashes, at least five terrorist fugitives were killed and a number of others wounded. IDF forces also confiscated weapons and ammunition. One extended exchange of fire in the village of Bourkin resulted in two IDF soldiers being seriously wounded, possibly in a friendly fire incident.

"It was a night of thwarting important targets, which stopped the development of major terrorist attacks. These were attacks that could have been executed in Jerusalem, Netanya, Tel Aviv, Afula, or any other place," Kochavi said.

"It's important for us to remember and remind everyone that these preventative actions take place dozens of times a week, which creates security for Israel throughout Judea and Samaria, not just here," he added.

During the operation overnight Saturday, two IDF soldiers were seriously wounded. Kochavi said, "We must probe and study all operational actions, but one thing is clear – [the personnel] here strive to fulfill the mission, and it resulted in a strike that comprised an extremely serious blow to the network that had been operation throughout the Menashe and Binyamin regions."

"The soldiers carried out the operation professionally, with great courage. I send the wounded troops my wishes for a speedy recovery. We will continue to operate in every region, all the time, to guarantee that the citizens of Israel are defended," Kochavi said.

Also on Sunday, commander of the Judea Samaria Division Brig. Gen. Yaniv Alaluf visited the two wounded soldiers in the hospital and told their families: "Your sons are fighters, brave heroes. Their daring actions in the clashes overnight prevented Israeli citizens from being killed and wounded."

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On Sunday, the courts are set to review a request for parole from Mohammed Hassan Agbariya, who along with three other attackers was sentenced to life in prison for the murder of three Israeli soldiers in 1992 in what came to be known as the "Night of the Pitchforks" attack. While the court is required to review Agbariya's request by law, security prisoners are rarely released on parole.

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On Feb. 14, 1992, Agbariya, along with his brother Ibrahim Hassan Agbariya, their cousin Yahya Mustafa, and Mohammed Tawfik Jabarin, entered the encampment near Kibbutz Gilad in Ramot Menashe, where recent recruits had been engaged in field training, murdering Yaakov Dubinsky, Sergei Zatziriyani, and Yuri Preda.

Earlier in the week, Justice Minister Gideon Sa'ar contacted dozens of lawmakers, including those from his own New Hope party, who oppose Agbariya's release. In a letter to Sa'ar, Religious Zionist Party MK Orit Strock, along with 59 other lawmakers, said they expected the New Hope leader to "oppose outright the release of the rotten murderer who has the blood of three of our soldiers on his hands."

Israel Hayom has learned that despite his request for parole, Agbariya has continued to incite to terrorism from prison.

In an article posted just a few weeks ago by the website of Asra Voice Radio, the self-described radio station of Palestinian prisoners, Agbariya called to continue the struggle against Israel.

"The resistance cannot retreat from what began in the battle of the sword of Jerusalem or go back to the mentality of a 'resolution to the conflict,' Agbariya wrote in the article, in which he also praised rioters in Jaffa and young people in Abu Ghosh fighting against the Jewish state.

In another article published around a year and a half ago, the terrorist called for the Palestinian nationalist movement to align with China to fight Israel.

"From a political standpoint, the Palestinian resistance will begin to find its path, first wisely and secretly, and then publicly, to fight for the hearts of the Chinese nation and its leadership through   emphasizing a common cause between the two peoples," he wrote.

Sa'ar is expected to oppose Agbariya's release.

In a statement, his office said: "The positions of Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Minister Gideon Sa'ar are well-known to the public. In general, Minister Sa'ar's position rules out the commutation of sentences for terrorists who committed acts of murder. As far as this specific case is concerned, according to the law, the minister offers his opinion following the recommendation of the parole board once all the relevant material has been brought before him and before it is brought to the president for his decision. That is also what will happen in this case."

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It came as no surprise to Israel's political and security establishments when Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas threatened on Thursday night to cancel the Palestinian legislative elections scheduled for May 22 over Israel's refusal to allow east Jerusalem Palestinians to vote in them.

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Israel was already working under the assumption that Abbas would use Israel's lack of response to his request that Palestinian residents in the east of the capital be allowed to participate in the elections as a pretext to cancel them. However, it appeared that Abbas had attempted to soften his criticism of Israel by claiming that the government had not responded to his request on the matter because there was no government in place that could do so.

"European Union representatives confirmed to us that that Israeli side is not allowing elections to be held in east Jerusalem. The Europeans said there is no use, and the Israelis will never allow elections. Our true response to Israel's refusal is that no one will laugh at us. This is idle chatter that will not work with us," Abbas said Thursday.

"We sent the Palestinian foreign minister to Europe, and we said we are waiting for an answer from the Israelis on the holding of elections in east Jerusalem. We issued presidential decrees, and we waited for a response to holding them [the elections] in Jerusalem, and we got no answer," he continued.

Abbas also accused Israel of attacking political activists in east Jerusalem and preventing them from campaigning there.

"These events that the entire world saw showed that our great people can take on the occupation forces and its intentions of occupation. The world saw the violence of the Israeli government and the settlers, those who called 'Death to Arabs.' I say 'no' to those who claim a unified Jerusalem is the Israeli capital," the PA leader declared.

Israel's security apparatus was waiting Thursday to gauge the Palestinian public's response to Abbas' announcement, and security officials are not ruling out a possibility that Hamas, which will be disappointed if the elections are cancelled, will renew the violent weekly riots at the Gaza border fence, or even regular rocket attacks against Israel. The IDF is also prepared for possible rioting in Judea and Samaria, as well as renewed lone-wolf terrorist attacks.

The security establishment is hoping for a negligible response from the Palestinian public, but the IDF's Southern and Central Commands are also ready for massive backlash, and expect this weekend to serve as a test case for security developments in the Palestinian arena.

Israel is hoping that the Palestinian front will remain relatively calm in light of the ongoing challenges presented by Hezbollah and Iran in the North. This was one of the reasons why, after terrorist factions in the Gaza Strip fired over 40 rockets at Israel last week, Israel's response was limited and mainly focused on restrictions to the Gaza fishing zone. On Thursday morning, Israel announced that those restrictions had been revoked.

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Prosecutors in the Tucumán Province of northern Argentina have announced the arrest of two suspects in a plot to carry out a terrorist attack against the local Jewish community last Saturday, Argentine authorities announced Sunday.

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The suspects were arrested while in possession of knives, guns, and antisemitic books.

Police began investigating the suspects after an DAIA, the umbrella organization that represents Jewish groups in Argentina, filed a complaint. Federal security services began tracking the suspects, and the investigative process included cracking the social media on which the two were active in the planning stages of the attack.

The social media correspondence between the two increased in frequency once messages took on a specific nature about the attack that was being plotted for Saturday, at which point the federal counter-terror police raised two addresses – one in the provincial capital San Miguel de Tucumán, and the other approximately 10 km. (6 miles) to the south.

Upon entering, police found weapons caches that included hunting rifles and machetes in addition to bugging equipment. There were also two books: The Myth of the 20^th Century by Nazi propagandist Alfred Rosenberg, and a book about Hitler and the occult.

Authorities reported that the group of which the two suspects were members appeared to be relatively well-organized and in possession of dangerous weapons, an indication of how serious the planned attack was.

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It's very doubtful whether the Arabic phrase "muqawama salmiya" means anything to the judges of the International Criminal Court in The Hague, who this week greenlighted an investigation into Israel for alleged war crimes. Makuma salamiya ("peaceful, non-violent resistance"), as Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has taken care to refer to the thousands of terrorist attacks and attempted terrorist attacks against Israelis, has prompted 534 major attacks in the last six years, and tens of thousands more "ordinary" attacks (meaning rock throwing and Molotov cocktails).

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In that six-year period, 85 Israelis were killed and over 1,000 wounded in Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria in attacks that the Palestinians called "popular terrorism." In those same six years, Israeli security forces thwarted over 2,000 more major attacks planned as part of this "popular terrorism." These blood-soaked statistics, based on the idea of "peaceful, non-violent resistance," will probably not be investigated at The Hague.

For years, the terminology that defines hundreds and thousands of attacks and planned attacks as "popular resistance" has been a characteristic tool of Palestinian spokespeople. It is even anchored in two strategic decisions by the Fatah movement. The first was made at the organization's sixth conference, held in August 2009, which adopted the strategy of "popular resistance" – meaning terrorism. This strategy was re-approved at the Fatah's seventh conference in December 2016, which passed a decision to strengthen it. Abbas again approved these concepts at the UN in September 2017.

Since then, the PA leader – who initiated the ICC complaint against Israel – has not stopped talking about popular resistance, which is terrorism in every sense of the word. For years, the PA has defined terrorist attacks such as the murder of Esther Horgan in a grove near her home or the murder of Rabbi Shai Ohayon at Sgula Junction five months ago as "popular resistance."

This week, concurrent with the ICC decision, the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center published a report summing up popular terrorism in 2020. It turns out that Abbas' "muqawama salmiya" led to 40 major terrorist attacks last year that killed three Israelis and wounded 46. Another 430 attacks were thwarted in Judea, Samaria, and Jerusalem. Of the attacks that were prevented, 238 would have involved shootings, 70 would have been stabbings, 10 would have been car rammings, and 62 would have involved explosives devices. Another five plots included abductions.

COVID mitigates terrorism

These numbers, which are by no means small, still reflect a drop in the level of terrorism and its lethality in 2020 compared to the years 2015-2019. The late Col. (res.) Reuven Erlich, former head of the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center who passed away two weeks ago, explained in a recent conversation with Israel Hayom that "the Palestinians – according to their own views – had supposedly good reasons to renew and increase terrorism last year." Factors for this include the Trump administration's peace plan, Israel's intention to declare sovereignty in parts of Judea and Samaria, and the normalization agreements Israel signed with a number of Arab states.

Erlich attributes the drop in Palestinian terrorism last year to Israeli security forces' pre-emptive capabilities, an ongoing decline in most of the Palestinian public's willingness to take an active part in terrorist activity, and anti-Israel protest.

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But no less important was the COVID pandemic, which appears to have influenced the Palestinians, as well. The public health and economic fallout, Erlich explains, kept the Palestinians busy, and even created another modern-day blood libel that falsely accused Israel of spreading the virus in the PA.

The drop in terrorism in 2020 can be seen in two main parameters. The first is the lower number of major attacks that were actually perpetrated: In 2015 that number stood at 171; in 2016, 142; in 2017, 82; in 2018, 55; in 2019, 34; and in 2020 – 40.

The second parameter is the lower number of thwarted planned attacks. In 2018 581 terrorist plots were foiled by security forces; in 2019, 564; and in 2020 – only 430.

The fact that the Palestinians are careful to refer to this as "popular" terrorism also has to do with the fact that most of the terrorists active in recent years, including 2020, were not affiliated with any terrorist organization. Most "popular terrorism" is perpetrated using unsophisticated weapons – knives, rocks, sharpened object, or cars. In 2020, like the two previous years, most of the terrorists had personal or nationalist motives, rather than religious ones, in sharp contrast to the wave of terrorist stabbings Israel witnessed from 2015-2017, when many of the attackers were spurred to action by the lie "Al-Aqsa is in danger" and felt "obligated" to prevent Jews from visiting the Temple Mount. COVID, apparently, put a damper on religious fervor, at least as a motive for terrorism.

'One of the quietest years'

In 2020, religious ecstasy as a motive for committing a terrorist attack was replaced by various personal problems, like a poor grade on a math test (in the case of one terrorist who tried to stab soldiers in January 2020 at Gitai-Avisar Junction near Ariel), or a romantic disappointment, family quarrels, or domestic disputes or friction between children and parents, as well as financial distress. Most of these attackers took into account that they might not make it out alive after committing or attempting to commit the attacks. Some of them expressed a desire to die.

Once again, Palestinian society drew no distinction between the terrorists who acted out of nationalist motives and the ones who were mainly prompted by personal problems. The culture of martyrdom is still being nurtured, both through the glorification of martyrs, even in formal and informal Palestinian educational framework, and the generous salaried paid out to terrorists and their families. The PA also rebuilds the homes of terrorists that Israel demolishes as punishment, and PA representatives attend funerals of terrorists and pay condolence visits to families, conferring honor upon their families.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi defined 2020 as one of the quietest years Israel has seen on the security front, with few Israeli casualties, but it's unclear what we can expect from 2021. Along with mitigating factors like the war against COVID, renews security cooperation between the PA and Israel after the sovereignty plan was shelved; and Israel allowing some 100,000 Palestinian laborers to work in Israel, there are also factors that increase the possibility of a rise in terrorism. These include the dispute between Israel and the PA over the salaries paid to terrorists and their families and the upcoming PA parliamentary elections, which could spark violence between the various Palestinian factions that could be turned toward Israel.

Yet another factor is the "price tag" attacks against Palestinians carried out by right-wing Israeli extremists, which could cause things to go downhill. In 2021, like last year, the tracking and prediction tool that Israel's security forces operate on social media platforms will play a central role in thwarting planned terrorist attacks and deterring potential terrorists. This system has grown much more sophisticated since the 2015-2017 wave of "lone wolf" terrorism, and had help scupper hundreds of plans for terrorist attacks in the past few years. 

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Just over a week ago, 17-year-old Atallah Muhammad Rayyan approached a female Israeli soldier, not much older than he, at the Ariel junction in Samaria. He was armed with a knife, and his aim was to kill her. Instead, a fellow soldier shot and killed Rayyan.

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A mere three days later, a similar incident took place at the Gush Etzion junction in Judea. An unidentified Palestinian approached an Israeli soldier. Civilians were nearby, waiting at a bus stop. He had fashioned for himself a makeshift spear by tying a knife to a stick, and as he drew closer he drew the weapon and broke into a jog. The soldier opened fire, killing him on the spot.

Within hours of each attack the Palestinian Authority's propaganda machine was in full swing, recasting Rayyan and the unnamed assailant not as terrorists but as innocent victims of Israeli belligerence.

Rayyan was "executed," official PA TV reported; he "died as a martyr after being shot by the occupation's soldiers while ‎he was at the junction."

A post on Fatah's official Facebook page read: "The [Palestinian] children are dying from the bullets of [Israeli] soldiers ‎who are filled with hatred towards everything Palestinian." It, too, cast Rayyan as innocent, claiming: "All that Atallah did was to cross the ‎road quickly."

Of the other assailant, official PA news reported: "A young person whose identity is still unknown ‎died as a martyr after the occupation's soldiers shot him south of ‎Bethlehem. Our reporter said the occupation forces at [Gush] Etzion ‎Junction shot the young person while he was in the area."

This whitewashing of attempted murder reached the very top of the PA – Prime Minister Muhammad Shtayyeh himself fed the libel.

"The [Israeli] killings of young Palestinians have also expanded ‎according to the policy of shooting to kill, or the policy of summary ‎execution," he said, adding: "Last week, we lost two martyrs who were shot by the occupation at ‎the two checkpoints of the colonies Ariel and Gush Etzion."

No mention of the fact that the two were killed in the act of attempting to murder others; no, they were executed merely for "crossing the road," for "being in the area."

This is fake news, PA-style.

In a sense, however, these two young Palestinians and others like them are indeed victims – not of Israel but of the PA itself.

From a young age, Palestinian children are taught that the highest achievement they can aspire to is to be killed in this manner, in the attempt to carry out terror attacks.

Every day, when Palestinian girls enter their high school in Bethlehem, the PA reminds them with a plaque at the entrance that their role model is a suicide bomber who was their age, 17-year-old Ayyat al-Akhras, who murdered two and wounded 28 when she blew herself up outside a supermarket on March 29, 2002.

Fatah holds up children who are killed seeking "martyrdom" as heroes, encouraging others to follow their example. Last June, Fatah spokesman Osama al-Qawasmi said: "This is the land of Palestine. Whoever remembers Faris Ouda and 'the children of the rocks' knows that this people is great."

Ouda was just 14 years old when he set out to attack Israeli soldiers. According to the official PA daily, on the day he was killed, before heading towards the areas where ‎Palestinian and Israelis were involved in fighting, Ouda left a wreath ‎around his picture in his room, with the words: "The brave Martyr Faris ‎Ouda." The PA daily wrote that Ouda had said to his ‎mother, "Don't worry, mother, martyrdom (shahada) is sweet."

Ouda can perhaps be forgiven for believing this; a schoolbook currently in use in PA schools teaches fifth-graders that terrorist murderers are society's "heroes" – "the best of the best" – and that "everyone wants to be like them." PA educators teach children that these "heroes" fearlessly sacrifice their lives, and that whoever does not desire to do so is a coward: "Bravo to the heroes, and scorn to the cowards!"

This teaching isn't only given at school level; students at Al-Quds Open University were told by Fatah Central Committee member and Fatah Commissioner Abbas Zaki in 2018: "Those who die [naturally] are the cowards. But real men approach death with a smile."

The examples are seemingly endless, and the message is clear: The Palestinian Authority weaponizes children, inciting them to attack Israeli soldiers, who are forced to kill them in self defense, only to then twist the narrative to make it seem as though the children are victims of Israeli aggression.

In doing so, they further incite hatred for Israel among the Palestinian population, propagating a self-propelling terror cycle.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org

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As Austrians were making the most of their last night in restaurants, cafes and bars on Nov. 2 before the onset of a new lockdown, a 20-year-old Islamic terrorist fired at passersby in Vienna's historic city center, killing four and injuring 23. Initial reports painted the target as Vienna's city's synagogue but, as it turned out, the synagogue might have been in the terrorist's line of fire by happenstance.

Perhaps that's symbolic. Threats to the European Jewish community and general society are now perceived as being intermingled, say community leaders. "We are all synagogues now," might go the refrain, particularly in France, which on Oct. 16 suffered the brutal beheading of teacher Samuel Paty, who had shown students cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad that were published in Charlie Hebdo, and then, two weeks later, the fatal stabbing of three at the Notre Dame church in Nice.

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"We always knew we were in the same boat, but Christians are starting to understand that," says Philippe Karsenty, a former French Jewish elected official credited with exposing the false attribution by French media of Palestinian youth Muhammed al-Dura's death back in September 2000 by the Israel Defense Forces. That was at the start of the Second Intifada, which last five years and resulted in more than 1,000 Israeli deaths and about 3,000 Palestinian deaths.

"Remember, when the Jews started to be attacked 20 years ago, we said 'after Saturday, Sunday.' And now they're starting to understand that it's a civilization war."

He also noticed that French President Emmanuel Macron has amped up his rhetoric against radical Islam. "He's talking tougher," says Karsenty. "That's good. Acting tougher is better."

'This gives rise to a double concern'

In Vienna, a city that has been spared the kind of Islamic attacks that have rocked other major European cities, reports were initially confused and inaccurate because Austrian media is inexperienced with covering such incidents, says Samuel Laster, editor of Austria's online Jewish newspaper, Atar HaYehudi (Die Juedische). Initial coverage erroneously reported armed attackers still on the loose and even a kidnapping scenario. The terrorist was shot dead by police.

"There is a great mourning that's very deep," says Laster. "Candles and flowers decorate the line of fire. The story really affects the Austrian soul because many people were out that night, and they were locked wherever they were – at home, in restaurants – because police told them not to go out. It reverberated because everyone shared what they did."

Austrian Jews were in a special position to offer assistance to the authorities. The Jewish community headquarters, located adjacent to the synagogue, captured surveillance footage of the attack, some of which was mysteriously leaked to Israeli media. The community rabbi, Rabbi Schlomo Hofmeister, reported how he witnessed the attacker shooting hundreds of rounds in front of the Jewish building. The synagogue was closed at the time.

The rabbi, who has been in his position since 2008, made the rounds in US news, speaking distinctly about security and the psyche of Jews in Western Europe.

To make matters more tragic for Austrians, the attacker was imprisoned for seeking to join ISIS but had been released on parole after being deemed "de-radicalized," now prompting Austria authorities to re-examine their handling of Islamic institutions, mosques and individuals.

In France, currently under lockdown through November, military presence has doubled on national territory, says Francis Kalifat, president of the Representative Council of Jewish Institutions of France, in an email. Security will prioritize houses of worship, schools and hospitals.

"While the terrorist threat weighs on French society as a whole, French Jews remain a particular target for Islamist terrorists," he says, citing the 2012 attacks on a Jewish school in Toulouse in 2012 and the 2015 Hypercacher kosher market siege. "It can be said that they face a double threat: as French and as Jews. This gives rise to a double concern."

Furthermore, Jews are a particular obsession of Islamic terrorism, even if they're not targeted outright. "The comments made on social networks by the perpetrators of the latest attacks or on videos of allegiance, references to Jews are constantly present, even systematic," says Kalifat.

In Germany as well, the spate of attacks have mostly accentuated ever-present Jewish worries, which also surfaced following the 2019 attempted knife attack by a Syrian asylum seeker shouting "Allahu Akbar" at the prominent New Synagogue in Berlin on Rosh Hashanah and, 10 days later, the attempted shooting spree by a right-wing extremist on Halle's synagogue on Yom Kippur.

"My feeling is there are probably generally two groups in our community and maybe in the wider Jewish community," explains Doron Rubin, lay leader of the Kahal Adass Jisroel Orthodox community of Berlin.

"One says we're vulnerable and a target all the time, and the maximum you get from something like the Vienna attack is the awareness back. And then there's the group that feels it's much closer. I think at the end of the day, both groups are probably close together because both feel the pressure of the situation. The difference is how you weigh the different factors," Rubin said.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has called for stricter Schengen border controls, which are now being taken under consideration by the European Union. For the German Jewish community, however, security concerns are regularly reassessed with government officials, no matter what goes on elsewhere.

"These incidents and attacks bring us back to earth," says Rubin. "Even if there are six months of quiet, you know it's there and can happen any time."

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The pressure rises with each gruesome attack. After three in five weeks, France's Muslims are feeling squeezed.

A spotlight of suspicion was trained on them again even before the latest acts of extremist violence, including two beheadings. President Emmanuel Macron has forged ahead with his effort to rid Islam in France of extremists, part of a project he labels "separatism, a term that makes Muslims wince.

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Amid intensifying rhetoric and fresh attacks by outsiders, including the killings of three people Thursday at a Catholic church in Nice, Muslims in France have kept their heads down and chins up. But deep down, some are squirming, feeling they are being held responsible.

"It's worrisome for Muslims," said Hicham Benaissa, a sociologist who specializes in Islam in the workplace. Within his network, he said, some "talk about leaving France. The situation is tense. There is fear."

Islam is the second religion in France, which has the largest Muslim population in Western Europe. But the country's estimated 5 million Muslims have walked a delicate line in search of full acceptance in what for many is their nation of birth. Discrimination casts a shadow over some and is an outright barrier to mainstream life for others.

France's cherished value of secularism, which is meant to ensure religious freedom, has in recent years been used by the state to reign in customs practiced by some Muslims. The president's proposed law may mean further tinkering with the 1905 secularism law born out of a conflict with the powerful Roman Catholic clergy.

Macron has prompted angry protests and calls for boycotts of French products this past week from South Asia to the Mideast. He is accused of spreading anti-Muslim sentiment, notably while eulogizing the teacher who was decapitated near Paris, by defending the French right to caricaturize Islam's Prophet Muhammad.

Samuel Paty was attacked outside his school Oct. 16 by a teenage refugee of Chechen origin for showing the caricatures in a civics class. A young Tunisian man killed three people Thursday inside the basilica in the southern city of Nice, beheading one woman. The series of bloodletting began Sept. 25 when a young Pakistani refugee injured two people outside the former Charlie Hebdo newsroom office in Paris. In January 2015, attackers massacred 12 people there after the paper published caricatures of the prophet. That trial is underway.

Words of solidarity from France's Muslim leaders have been unfailing. The attack "touched brothers and sisters who were praying to their lord. I am deeply Christian today," said the imam of Nice's Ar-Rahma Mosque, Otman Aissaoui.

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But, "once again we are stigmatized, and people move so fast to lump things together," Aissaoui also said, reflecting the deepening discomfort of France's Muslims, most from former French colonies in North Africa.

Muslims "are neither guilty nor responsible ... We shouldn't have to justify ourselves," said Abdallah Zekri, an official of the French Council for the Muslim Faith.

The attacks and Macron's "separatism" plan, which includes a partial overhaul of the way Islam is organized in France, from the training of imams to management of Muslim associations, have drilled home the divide. They also have focused attention on the cherished value of secularism –"laicite" in French – which is enshrined in the French Constitution but is still not clearly defined.

"The presence of Islam was not something foreseen by French society," said Tareq Oubrou, a leading imam in Bordeaux.

Tensions have run high in the past, notably with changes to the secularism law, with a 2004 law banning headscarves in classrooms and another in 2010 banning face-coverings.

"Secularism has always been a smokescreen ... a hidden way to treat the question of Islam," Benaissa said.

Rim-Sarah Alouane, a doctoral candidate at Toulouse Capitole University, researching religious freedom and civil liberties, is tougher. "Since the l990s, laïcité has been weaponized and misused as a political tool to limit the visibility of religious signs, especially Muslim ones," she said.

"The state needs to make sure to respect and fully embrace its diversity and not consider it a threat," she said.

The rise of Islam into public view was gradual and mostly went unnoticed until the far right seized upon it as a threat to the French identity. Over the years mosques have multiplied, along with Muslim schools.

Muslim men initially came to France to take menial jobs following World War II. In the 1970s, immigrant Muslims working in car factories, construction and other sectors were "absolutely essential to French industry," Benaissa said. Renault, for instance, installed prayer rooms.

"Today, when a veiled woman arrives in a company, there is ... a revolt. What happened?" he asked.

Many Muslims, unlike their parents or grandparents, are getting educations, better jobs and erasing the "myth of return," he said.

Olivier Roy, a top expert, told a parliamentary committee that most Muslims have worked to integrate into French culture. They "format themselves to the French Republic and complain they don't get a payback in return, don't have the benefit of recognition," he said.

Macron conceded in a speech that France bears full responsibility for the "ghettoization" of Muslims in housing projects but insists the planned law is not about stigmatizing Muslims.

Yet stigmatism is part of life in France for many, from being singled out by police for ID checks to discrimination in job searches.

"The Muslim is reduced to his religion," said Oubrou, the Bordeaux imam. "Everything is not Christian in the life of a Christian."

The religion with no single leader has multiple strains in France, running from moderate to Salafist with a rigorous interpretation of the religion to outright radical upstarts.

In his project, Macron envisions measures like training imams in France instead of bringing them in from Turkey, Morocco or Algeria.

Benaissa doesn't underestimate the "ideological offensive" of political Islam, but says a ferocious public debate is reducing Islam to a single fear.

"Islam is not Islamism, a Muslim is not an Islamist. An Islamist is not necessarily a jihadi," he said. "What I fear is that identities radicalize, with on one side those claiming the Muslim identity and on the other those claiming the identity of France."

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