It's very doubtful whether the Arabic phrase "muqawama salmiya" means anything to the judges of the International Criminal Court in The Hague, who this week greenlighted an investigation into Israel for alleged war crimes. Makuma salamiya ("peaceful, non-violent resistance"), as Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has taken care to refer to the thousands of terrorist attacks and attempted terrorist attacks against Israelis, has prompted 534 major attacks in the last six years, and tens of thousands more "ordinary" attacks (meaning rock throwing and Molotov cocktails).
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In that six-year period, 85 Israelis were killed and over 1,000 wounded in Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria in attacks that the Palestinians called "popular terrorism." In those same six years, Israeli security forces thwarted over 2,000 more major attacks planned as part of this "popular terrorism." These blood-soaked statistics, based on the idea of "peaceful, non-violent resistance," will probably not be investigated at The Hague.
For years, the terminology that defines hundreds and thousands of attacks and planned attacks as "popular resistance" has been a characteristic tool of Palestinian spokespeople. It is even anchored in two strategic decisions by the Fatah movement. The first was made at the organization's sixth conference, held in August 2009, which adopted the strategy of "popular resistance" – meaning terrorism. This strategy was re-approved at the Fatah's seventh conference in December 2016, which passed a decision to strengthen it. Abbas again approved these concepts at the UN in September 2017.
Since then, the PA leader – who initiated the ICC complaint against Israel – has not stopped talking about popular resistance, which is terrorism in every sense of the word. For years, the PA has defined terrorist attacks such as the murder of Esther Horgan in a grove near her home or the murder of Rabbi Shai Ohayon at Sgula Junction five months ago as "popular resistance."
This week, concurrent with the ICC decision, the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center published a report summing up popular terrorism in 2020. It turns out that Abbas' "muqawama salmiya" led to 40 major terrorist attacks last year that killed three Israelis and wounded 46. Another 430 attacks were thwarted in Judea, Samaria, and Jerusalem. Of the attacks that were prevented, 238 would have involved shootings, 70 would have been stabbings, 10 would have been car rammings, and 62 would have involved explosives devices. Another five plots included abductions.
COVID mitigates terrorism
These numbers, which are by no means small, still reflect a drop in the level of terrorism and its lethality in 2020 compared to the years 2015-2019. The late Col. (res.) Reuven Erlich, former head of the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center who passed away two weeks ago, explained in a recent conversation with Israel Hayom that "the Palestinians – according to their own views – had supposedly good reasons to renew and increase terrorism last year." Factors for this include the Trump administration's peace plan, Israel's intention to declare sovereignty in parts of Judea and Samaria, and the normalization agreements Israel signed with a number of Arab states.
Erlich attributes the drop in Palestinian terrorism last year to Israeli security forces' pre-emptive capabilities, an ongoing decline in most of the Palestinian public's willingness to take an active part in terrorist activity, and anti-Israel protest.
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But no less important was the COVID pandemic, which appears to have influenced the Palestinians, as well. The public health and economic fallout, Erlich explains, kept the Palestinians busy, and even created another modern-day blood libel that falsely accused Israel of spreading the virus in the PA.
The drop in terrorism in 2020 can be seen in two main parameters. The first is the lower number of major attacks that were actually perpetrated: In 2015 that number stood at 171; in 2016, 142; in 2017, 82; in 2018, 55; in 2019, 34; and in 2020 – 40.
The second parameter is the lower number of thwarted planned attacks. In 2018 581 terrorist plots were foiled by security forces; in 2019, 564; and in 2020 – only 430.
The fact that the Palestinians are careful to refer to this as "popular" terrorism also has to do with the fact that most of the terrorists active in recent years, including 2020, were not affiliated with any terrorist organization. Most "popular terrorism" is perpetrated using unsophisticated weapons – knives, rocks, sharpened object, or cars. In 2020, like the two previous years, most of the terrorists had personal or nationalist motives, rather than religious ones, in sharp contrast to the wave of terrorist stabbings Israel witnessed from 2015-2017, when many of the attackers were spurred to action by the lie "Al-Aqsa is in danger" and felt "obligated" to prevent Jews from visiting the Temple Mount. COVID, apparently, put a damper on religious fervor, at least as a motive for terrorism.
'One of the quietest years'
In 2020, religious ecstasy as a motive for committing a terrorist attack was replaced by various personal problems, like a poor grade on a math test (in the case of one terrorist who tried to stab soldiers in January 2020 at Gitai-Avisar Junction near Ariel), or a romantic disappointment, family quarrels, or domestic disputes or friction between children and parents, as well as financial distress. Most of these attackers took into account that they might not make it out alive after committing or attempting to commit the attacks. Some of them expressed a desire to die.
Once again, Palestinian society drew no distinction between the terrorists who acted out of nationalist motives and the ones who were mainly prompted by personal problems. The culture of martyrdom is still being nurtured, both through the glorification of martyrs, even in formal and informal Palestinian educational framework, and the generous salaried paid out to terrorists and their families. The PA also rebuilds the homes of terrorists that Israel demolishes as punishment, and PA representatives attend funerals of terrorists and pay condolence visits to families, conferring honor upon their families.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi defined 2020 as one of the quietest years Israel has seen on the security front, with few Israeli casualties, but it's unclear what we can expect from 2021. Along with mitigating factors like the war against COVID, renews security cooperation between the PA and Israel after the sovereignty plan was shelved; and Israel allowing some 100,000 Palestinian laborers to work in Israel, there are also factors that increase the possibility of a rise in terrorism. These include the dispute between Israel and the PA over the salaries paid to terrorists and their families and the upcoming PA parliamentary elections, which could spark violence between the various Palestinian factions that could be turned toward Israel.
Yet another factor is the "price tag" attacks against Palestinians carried out by right-wing Israeli extremists, which could cause things to go downhill. In 2021, like last year, the tracking and prediction tool that Israel's security forces operate on social media platforms will play a central role in thwarting planned terrorist attacks and deterring potential terrorists. This system has grown much more sophisticated since the 2015-2017 wave of "lone wolf" terrorism, and had help scupper hundreds of plans for terrorist attacks in the past few years.
