In an extraordinary rebuke of US President Donald Trump, all 10 living former secretaries of defense are cautioning against any move to involve the military in pursuing claims of election fraud, arguing that it would take the country into "dangerous, unlawful and unconstitutional territory."

The 10 men, both Democrats and Republicans, signed on to an opinion article published Sunday in The Washington Post that implicitly questioned Trump's willingness to follow his Constitutional duty to peacefully relinquish power on Jan. 20. Following the Nov. 3 election and subsequent recounts in some states, as well as unsuccessful court challenges, the outcome is clear, they wrote, while not specifying Trump in the article.

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"The time for questioning the results has passed; the time for the formal counting of the electoral college votes, as prescribed in the Constitution and statute, has arrived," they wrote.

The former Pentagon chiefs warned against use of the military in any effort to change the outcome.

"Efforts to involve the US armed forces in resolving election disputes would take us into dangerous, unlawful and unconstitutional territory," they wrote. "Civilian and military officials who direct or carry out such measures would be accountable, including potentially facing criminal penalties, for the grave consequences of their actions on our republic."

A number of senior military officers, including Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have said publicly in recent weeks that the military has no role in determining the outcome of US elections and that their loyalty is to the Constitution, not to an individual leader or a political party.

The 10 former Pentagon leaders also warned in their Post article of the dangers of impeding a full and smooth transition at Defense Department prior to Inauguration Day as part of a transfer to power to President-elect Joe Biden. Biden has complained of efforts by Trump-appointed Pentagon officials to obstruct the transition.

Without mentioning a specific example, the former defense secretaries wrote that transfers of power "often occur at times of international uncertainty about US national security policy and posture," adding, "They can be a moment when the nation is vulnerable to actions by adversaries seeking to take advantage of the situation."

Tensions with Iran represent just such a moment. Sunday marked one year since the US killing of Qassem Soleimani, the top Iranian general; Iran has vowed to avenge the killing, and US officials said in recent days that they are on heightened alert for potential Iranian attack on US forces or interests in the Middle East.

In a further sign of US-Iranian tension, the acting secretary of defense, Christopher Milller, announced Sunday evening that he has changed his mind about sending the Navy aircraft carrier, the USS Nimitz, home from the Middle East and instead will keep the vessel on duty. Just last week, Miller announced that he was sending the Nimitz home, a decision that had been opposed by senior military officers.

In reversing himself, Miller cited "recent threats issued by Iranian leaders against President Trump and other US government officials." He did not elaborate, and the Pentagon did not respond to questions.

The opinion article in the Post was signed by Dick Cheney, William Perry, Donald Rumsfeld, William Cohen, Robert Gates, Leon Panetta, Chuck Hagel, Ash Carter, James Mattis and Mark Esper. Mattis was Trump's first defense secretary; he resigned in 2018 and was succeeded by Esper, who was fired just days after the Nov. 3 election.

The Post reported that the idea for writing the opinion piece began with a conversation between Cheney and Eric Edelman, a retired ambassador and former senior Pentagon official, about how Trump might seek to use the military in coming days.

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Iran's president said on Tuesday that the results of the US presidential election showed the American people had joined the world in opposing US President Donald Trump.

Speaking during a virtual meeting with other global leaders, Hassan Rouhani said the American people decided to bring about change after seeing the world's response to the US administration's policies.

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"The US presidential election results show that a country which is constantly wielding threats, sanctions and weapons and which takes a bullying tone towards other nations must be pursuing a misled foreign policy," he said.

Tensions have spiked between the United States and Iran since 2018, when Trump exited a nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, and then re-imposed sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy.

President-elect Joe Biden has pledged to rejoin Iran's 2015 nuclear accord with six powers, a deal that was agreed by Washington when he was vice president, if Tehran also returns to compliance.

In retaliation for Trump's actions, Tehran has gradually reduced its commitments to the accord. But Iran's clerical rulers have said those steps were reversible if Tehran's interests were respected.

Iran's leaders have so far ruled out any talks aimed at further curbing Tehran's nuclear activity, halting its ballistic missile program and limiting the Islamic Republic's regional influence.

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Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said on Thursday that the result of the US election was not important and that his people would ultimately triumph over America.

''The White House brutally imposed sanctions and economic war even during the spread of coronavirus. They did not adhere to any human principles and principles of human rights and international laws and regulations. But I am confident that the Iranian people will ultimately win,'' Rouhani said in a televised cabinet meeting.

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"Regardless of who will be the next US president... the US government will surrender to the Iranian nation," he added.

Democratic challenger Joe Biden has promised to rejoin Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with six powers if Iran returns to compliance with it.

Video: Reuters

US President Donald Trump abandoned the deal in 2018 and re-imposed sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy. In retaliation, Iran has gradually reduced compliance with the deal's terms.

Trump has said he wants to strike a new deal with Tehran that would address Iran's missile program and support for regional proxies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.

Iran has ruled out any negotiations unless Washington first returns to the accord.

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It still isn't clear who will be declared the winner of the US presidential election, but even Wednesday night we could say that once again, the polls had misled the Americans. On the eve of the election, it looked like Democratic candidate Joe Biden had a big, solid lead, and was on his way to a large victory. But the moment it turned out that Florida was going for Trump, it was clear that the polls had been far from reality and, like in 2016, had not correctly assessed the Republican president's strength.

If we look at all the votes counted thus far, it seems as if the polls from four years ago were more accurate for today.

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On the eve of the 2016 election, most pollsters were pointing to a small lead for Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, who was ahead by an average of 3.2%. In the end, Clinton lost in electoral votes, but won the popular vote by a margin similar to what the polls showed of 2.1%. This time, Biden's projected lead in the polls stood at 7-8%. Last night, there were millions of votes that were still uncounted, but Biden's lead nationwide was much smaller, at some 2%.

The apparently lack of accuracy applies not only the national average but also in the very close races in a number of key states. In Florida, for example, most averages gave Biden a lead of 1-2%. With 96% of the votes counted on Wednesday, Trump won the state by 3.5%, 5% off the average in the polls. In Ohio, another state where the president won, the poll averages gave him a lead of 1%. With 96% of votes counted, he won with more than an 8% margin.

The errors of the polls were just as big for the Rust Belt. In Wisconsin, the former vice president was polling ahead by some 7%. As of Wednesday night, it looked like the Democratic candidate has won, but by a tiny 0.6% only, far from the lead the polls had promised. In Michigan, Biden's lead in the polls averaged 4.2%, but on Wednesday night, with 96% of the votes counter, he barely had a 0.9% lead. The situation in Pennsylvania, the third Rust Belt state, was still unclear on Wednesday, but polls gave Biden a lead of only 1.2% there.

Despite the problems, pollster Nate Silver, editor of the well-regarded site 538, rejected claims made against him and his colleagues, tweeting: "If a forecast says that Biden is favored because he could survive a 2016-style (~3 point) polling error when Clinton couldn't, and you get that polling error and he indeed (probably) survives, it was fairly informative?"

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The final result of the US presidential election have no bearing on the question of whether or not Israel will hold early elections, a senior Likud official told Israel Hayom on Wednesday.

"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already worked with the Democrats in times when there were presidents in the White House who were less friendly to Israel, like Barack Obama, and he will certainly work well with Joe Biden," the official said.

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"Of course, if [US President Donald] Trump is re-elected, the wonderful friendship between him and Netanyahu will continue. In any case, we cannot say that if one of [the candidates] is elected, the decision about whether or not to call an early election will be postponed or moved up," the official said.

He added that lack of cooperation between the Likud and Blue and White could be grounds for an early election: "The problem is working with them [Blue and White]. If they continue to stick spokes in the wheel of the government, it won't be possible to go on like this. They're an opposition within the government. All the fights about appointments, passing a budget, the ultimatums – these are things that could bring down the government."

Meanwhile, some Likud MKs think that if Netanyahu does decide to call an early election, he might do so in March, when the COVID situation and the prospects of a vaccine are clearer.

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If the 2016 US presidential election has taught us anything, it's that polls can be deceiving. So Israel Hayom has reached out to a few mystics to hear their predictions of the results, which are of keen interest to Israel.

Astrologist Pavel Karlin thinks that Tuesday's election will change the face of the world, and the reality in which we live will be completely altered.

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"First of all, what I'm seeing on a lot of maps and after careful examination is that the person who will the most votes is [US President] Trump. The Republicans will win the most votes, but the Democrats won't respect the decision and Joe Biden will snatch the presidency, against the ruling of the courts. Incidentally, Biden is very sick and won't be president for long," Karlin says.

Karlin adds that given the societal divide and the unwillingness to accept the election results, the US will fall apart, much like the former Soviet Union. He predicts that process will begin on Dec. 21.

"The Mayans predicted a world catastrophe for 2012, but they missed the date by eight years. Now it will happen. US states will disband their alliance, and a few states will rise instead of the existing 50 allied states. It will happen because the gaps, the differences, will be too big," Karlin says.

Jaffa-based mystic Sana Kuma, who reads coffee grounds, is convinced that while the polls are giving Biden an advantage, the results will surprise us all.

"Trump will be re-elected, but it won't be a knockout win, it will be by electoral votes," she says.

"In effect, it will be very good news for the Americans, because Trump will strengthen the American economy and it will flourish in the next few years. In addition, [the US] friendship with Israel will be preserved and help strengthen normalized ties between Israel and Arab states. By April 2021, I predict that more countries in the region will sign peace agreements with us – and normalization is very good news for Israel," she predicts.

Astrologist Tova Safra also predicts that Trump will remain president.

"I've already written that he will stay in power, and I think that now, too, but it won't be clear at the beginning, just like there was a lack of clarity between George W. Bush and Al Gore," Safra explains.

"It's because there is a star that stops and changes its direction on Election Day, so it will take a few days until it becomes clear that Trump will stay in power. Whether there are or aren't elections in Israel in the near future, Benjamin Netanyahu will stay prime minister and the alliance between the two countries will continue," Safra says.

Hadassah Haviv, a palm and tarot card reader, says Trump will win, "and it will be decided on Election Day. People always see the noise Joe Biden is making and how the media is enlisting on his behalf, but the reality on the ground is completely different. The quiet public, the ones not being interviewed, support Trump. In my opinion, that's what will happen, and it will be a surprise on Election Day, like last time."

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Two days from now, on Nov. 3, after some 90 million Americans cast ballots in early voting, the final decision will be made. In the shadow of a new wave of coronavirus, which on Saturday hit a record of several hundred thousand new cases, and a deep internal, societal, ideological, and cultural divide, tensions in the American street hit new levels this year. It's no surprise that voter turnout this time could break the 1960 record of 63%.

Indeed, we have before us an epic battle between two worldviews – liberal and conservative – that lead to very different action and policies about welfare, business horizons, and rights of the voting public vs. the state. Given this polarization, which the COVID crisis heightened, it would be appropriate to look at the current status of the White House among most of the demographics that gave the president his surprising win four years ago. Especially given the inherent contradiction between his desire to fulfill his commitment to his supporters, unconditionally, and the series of necessities and considerations that seem to have mandated he cut himself off, if partially, from that original commitment.

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The most tangible example of the dilemma Trump is now facing jumped onto center stage even before COVID. This was his strategic decision to remain loyal to his conservative views and not soften them, even around the edges, in an attempt to win more demographics, especially in the suburbs, no matter what political price he might have to pay for it. That is how the 45^th president worked tirelessly to appoint notably conservative judges to the Supreme Court when slots opened up. His recent appointment of the ultra-conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett is the latest, most dramatic testimony of the line Trump is taking to tighten his old on his Evangelical Christian followers and get them excited about the election.

The problem is that such a sweeping ideological change on the Supreme Court, which could be reflected in future rulings on sensitive, hot-button values, cultural, and economic issues, such as a woman's right to make decisions about her body or single-payer health care, has led to such a massive backlash among some demographics whose support the president desperately needs to win – mainly, educated white suburban women. Many of them already turned their backs on the Republican Party in the mid-term elections on those same grounds, and Trump's misogynist remarks have highlighted his contrarian approach.

The vast majority of the rest of the parameters that could decide the president's political future two days from now have to do with the COVID crisis and how it was handled. For example, we are seeing the White House lose stature among elderly Americans, especially in the key state of Florida, where no less than 20% of residents are over 65, who are dismayed at the hasty reopening of the economy. As a high-risk group, they are frightened by the spread of the merciless virus.

Similar things can be said about other social demographics who were badly hurt by the current crisis, including blue-collar workers in the Rust Belt (whose support helped him win in 2016), whose improved employment in the first three years of Trump's presidency was cut off in a single blow because of COVID; and a significant sector of African American voters, whose financial situation was transformed under Trump before they too became victim of the apocalypse.

As if that weren't enough, increasing voter turnout among young people age 29 and under, some of whom are simply anti-Trump, both because of his handling of the COVID crisis and his strong-arm policies against the protests in response to the killing of George Floyd, could make it difficult for him to recapture the public's faith.

Despite the huge hurdles he must clear to make it back into the White House, it's still too early to declare his chances over. Among other reasons, because we cannot know how many "quiet voters" will cast ballots for the president. It's also unclear whether or not some of his original supporters will decide, just before the final bell rings, to come home despite their disappointment at how he handled COVID. So rather than making predictions, it would be better to be patient and wait for the decision itself, rather than statistics.

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What was supposed to be for US President Donald Trump an easy, pleasant trip to visit supporters across the country on his way to a second term in office turned into a dizzying, close, stressful campaign, and mainly an election campaign whose end was unknown. President Trump needs to pull a rabbit out of his hat after nearly every poll and every political analyst pointed to an upheaval that would make him a one-term president.

Americans don't generally switch presidents, and tend to give him a second term, which might be the strongest thing he has going for him. For good or bad, people know what they'll get if they re-elect him, and the vast majority, even those who oppose him, agree that he has created growth and prosperity that no one thought possible.

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This election is in effect a choice between two slogans – "It's the economy, stupid!" or "It's the COVID, stupid!" This paraphrasing of the familiar line from Bill Clinton's campaign is no coincidence: COVID changed the rules of the game, just like Trump's very candidacy four years ago turned all the polling models on their heads (and to the biggest election surprise since Harry Truman's second win).

The American president hoped that he would be rewarded for bringing unbelievable economic growth, pension saving for nearly every citizen, improving unemployment, including among minorities (which led to surprising support for the president among young Black men and even Hispanics), and for restoring the honor of America and the Midwest states that had been left behind by the elite. Joe Biden is hoping that voters will forget all that and remember only the last few months of 2020, and mostly forget that there are Democrats in Congress who want to turn the US into a socialist shadow of itself.

The COVID pandemic no doubt stole the show in the 2020 election. The America that flourished under Trump (low unemployment, a flourishing stock market) changed and became an America under pressure, worried, with over 200,000 dead, newly unemployed, and mostly new race riots, including some this week in Philadelphia.

The hero who stole the show

This isn't how things were supposed to be. I visited America at the start of this year. At the end of January, at an impressive ceremony at the White House, Donald Trump presented his plan of the century that hinted about the agreements that were on the way and the application of Israeli sovereignty. The atmosphere at the White House was one of noble rejoicing.

It was clear then that Trump had become not only a talented politician (despite only having done so officially in June 2015), but also a statesman. One could continue to mock him, but he had gotten results. Beyond that, at the start of the year Trump survived his impeachment trial in the Senate. Everything was rosy.

Immediately after the ceremony for the plan of the century, Trump's team gathered to leave for Iowa, where the presidential campaign starts with its caucus. Trump was effectively the only Republican candidate, but he still had to officially compete in the primaries, for the protocol, while all eyes were on the Democratic side, where Joe Biden was in war of attrition with Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who represented the socialist left in the race. Trump's team, along with the loyal advisors who were with him, Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie, were feeling optimistic. The Republicans were convinced that Bernie Sanders would be the Democratic candidate and in a book they recently published they say they were sure Trump would "eat him alive."

But they didn't think that Biden, who lost so many states at the start of the Democratic race, including Iowa and New Hampshire, would turn things around in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday and win the Democratic nomination. Back then, who believed that Kamala Harris, who had won only 2% of the total votes in the Democratic primaries, would come back as the vice presidential candidate?

But Iowa, where everything started for Biden, and where Trump ran as the Republicans' guaranteed candidate, is now a historical memory. Iowa at the time was firmly on the red side of the map, and now there is a real fight there between the blues and the reds. Then, Trump was an admired figure in the Midwestern state, and Biden barely managed to bring 200 people to the rally he held in freezing Des Moines (I was at that rally, and I saw how alone he was).

Even the gang of Democratic journalists (almost all of them) thought that Biden was done for and wouldn't win the nomination of a party that is heading farther and farther to the Left and distancing itself from the mainstream it represents. But snow-covered Iowa was the delusion of a winter day. So was New Hampshire.

While Biden seemed lost then, Trump insisted on campaigning even though his nomination was ensured, among other reasons to show how united around him the Republicans were, while the Democrats were in utter chaos (which turned into real chaos during the Iowa vote counting, when the Democrats' computer systems crashed).

The enthusiasm for the president in Iowa, and the rest of the states where he was running as effectively the only candidate in the Republican primaries, was enormous. Trump even broke Reagan's record in New Hampshire. But he didn't know that his rally in South Caroline in March would be the last one for a long time because of a mystery virus that was even then making its way from China to the rest of the world. He didn't know that there would be an unexpected here of the 2020 election who would steal the show. Trump did shut down flights from China in January, but like many others, did not grasp the magnitude.

And there was something else that upended everything, in Minnesota. George Floyd being choked to death sparked an outbreak of violence in America that was reminiscent of the 1960s. Statues, and not only statues, came down. Trump's great America started to suffer blows.

Trump, being Trump, chose to fight in his own way, which not everyone liked, by presenting himself as someone who would wield a strong arm to restore law and order. He hoped that by doing so, he would capture the hearts of suburban voters, like he did in 2016, but that message was forgotten by the tribal and divided America.

Back to 1992

In 2016, I was in the US many times – in Florida, in Pennsylvania, in Texas, and Nevada – to watch Trump's wonderful campaign up close. This week, I went back to those same places. I added Arizona, where Trump arrived this week to ensure it would not turn blue.

I also stopped in Dallas, Texas, briefly. I saw how once again they were talking about a tie, with the possibility of the Democrats winning the southern state (if that happens, it's all over), but four years ago the Democrats also thought they had a chance to "steal" Texas, and it ended in tears. This year Biden is optimistic about Georgia and spent Tuesday campaigning in the southern state that last voted for the Democrats in 1992 (thanks to Bill Clinton being from the South).

Are we back in 1992? Remember, that year George Bush thought that he would ride into a second term on the glory of the Gulf War and his success in bringing the Cold War to and end; but voters wanted a change, mostly because of the recession.

This time the voters are pleased with Trump (52% say he is doing well), and also believe that he would do a better job of handling the economy, but still – the polls say – want a change. Not because of Biden's rhetorical abilities or talents, but because Biden hasn't been campaigning and has let COVID do his work for him.

In Pennsylvania, both candidates held a number of election rallies this week, almost simultaneously. There was a good reason for that: this year, Pennsylvania could decide things. Polls show that Pennsylvania and the Midwest, which gave Trump his victory in 2016, are leaning toward Biden. So Trump will do everything to win Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes: it's purple, like Florida, and can influence the rest of the Midwest, from Ohio to Michigan and Wisconsin. Not for nothing is it known as the Keystone State.

As we've said, the ace in Trump's sleeve is that the Americans hate to oust a sitting president, but he has something else that could play to his advantage: Biden's call for the US to stop subsidizing the fracking and coal mining industries. This would mean a fatal blow for many voters in the area, and Trump is taking advantage of every opportunity to remind voters of that.

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Trump is also on the defensive in Florida, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, and Arizona – all of which he won four years ago. He needs to win in all of them again. If we compared it to a soccer match, it seems as if Biden is playing in the center of the pitch, running out time because of the polls, while Trump is heading out with four strikers and looking for a win at the 90th minute.

Campaigns in a cloud of doubt

And of course, at the rallies themselves the differences could be seen. Trump is pugnacious, laughs at "Sleepy Joe," and tires to say again and again that Biden isn't fit and doesn't remember names, whereas Biden mocks Trump's handling of COVID. But voters, the polls say, aren't being influenced by either side's campaign.

Trump never stops bringing up the subject of alleged corruption by Joe Biden's son Hunter, who allegedly made corrupt deals in which he used his connections to the man who was vice president at the time. There was also the shocking interview with Tony Bobulinski, a former US Navy officer who worked with the Bidens and was a witness to the incriminating allegations, in which he claimed that Biden knew about all his son's deals. Imagine the reverse, and one of Trump's sons was suspected of making huge money off his contacts in the White House.

But the revelations about the Biden family aren't gaining traction, nor the revelations about Trump's tax returns. The voters mostly want it all to be over. As we said, it's the COVID, stupid. During Biden's very strange rallies, which were held in drive-through format due to COVID, he talks about the very difficult winter ahead of us, and even assesses that we are facing especially tough times. Trump does exactly the opposite. He tries to play down the dangers of the virus and fire up the voters with optimism.

He talks about the number of people who recover, and threatens the American public that Biden will lock America down. Either way, this week was a particularly successful one for Trump, who managed to get Senate confirmation for his Supreme Court nominee, Amy Coney Barrett. This is the third justice he has appointed, along with nearly 200 other judges to lower courts, and he hopes that his base will reward him for it.

So how is it that Trump could still win? Because it isn't over until it's over. It's no wonder that the New York Times, which missed badly four years ago, stated this week that the polls in Pennsylvania could not be depended upon. This, after one of the employees of the paper visited there and saw the massive excitement over the president with his own two eyes, and even called the state "Trumplandia."

'This time it's important to vote'

This week, I was in Pennsylvania, in the town Lititz, and I saw the thousands who came like fans to support the beloved president. I was also in Arizona this week, and there, too, fired-up crowds arrived to see the president. These are good Americans. Not a bunch of stupid racists, like they are portrayed in the establishment media.

And maybe because of the discrepancy between media coverage and what is happening on the ground, Trump will continue on for another four years. He is still seen as an outsider, anti-establishment candidate, one that connects to the locals and hasn't become a creature of Washington like Biden, who grew up in a working-class Pennsylvania town, but with time became part of the establishment.

Trump is still perceived as someone who is restoring America's greatness, and even managed to bend China to his will and strike a historic trade agreement, which was sadly forgotten amid the COVID fuss.

But on the other hand, there was the blue wave of 2018, which put the Democrats back in control of the House of Representatives, and a renewed wave of passion from the Democrats this year, too, which can be seen in the long lines at polling places that are already breaking records. So all the polls are confusing, and all the pollsters are being careful not to make predictions. Trump needs the vote of John, a Lutheran I met in Pennsylvania. John indeed voted for the president because he wants to stop the radical Left that has taken over the Democratic Party.

There is also the matter of voter fraud, which could wind up being the next big story, and could drag the election out until December. Mail-in voting is putting pressure on Trump, who is claiming that there is fraud, so it's possible that if widespread irregularities are discovered, states will decide on the winner not according to vote counts, but as they see fit, although this is an extreme scenario. In any case, everything is open until Dec. 14, when the electors vote.

"We don't always vote, but this time it's really important," a member of the devout Amish community in Pennsylvania tells me. True, I didn't see any Hispanics at the rally in Pennsylvania, or African-Americans, but this was in central Pennsylvania, home to rural, conservative communities.

In Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, Trump is pinning his hopes on the Hispanic community, which Biden is having trouble sweeping up, unlike Clinton four years ago. He was even forced to ask Barack Obama to campaign for him. Obama said at a rally in Florida that Trump was jealous of COVID for stealing the limelight. Maybe.

But in the end, the election is a referendum: pre-COVID Trump vs. COVID Trump. Next week, Americans will have to decide whether they regret how they voted four years ago, even though the decision was mostly to their benefit, or will punish the president for a pandemic that occurs once every 100 years and turned the entire world upside down.

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The road to the White House goes through Florida. Everyone already knows the mantra that is repeated in every presidential election: Florida, Florida, Florida.

Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama – they all won in Florida when they were running for a second term. Trump is hoping that he won't break that streak. The numbers give him reason to believe that Florida won't break with tradition: the Republicans have built an enormous system of voter registry, and have a strategic advantage because of the support of state's important Cuban-American community. However, the year of COVID is upsetting everything.

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The American president finds himself on the defensive in every state he wants to win, even when they're supposed to be in his pocket. He isn't letting up, and is attacking the media, which he claims has enlisted to push him out and is ignoring alleged corruption by the Biden family – all because of how he handled the COVID crisis as president.

But on Thursday, out of the clear blue sky, very positive data about the American economy was published: the rate of growth reached 33% in the last quarter, despite the pandemic. If there's anything that can save the president, it's a flourishing economy, and especially the sense that America is headed in the right direction. The "right direction index" is an important one, and Trump is expected to bring up these numbers over and over until Nov. 3 in order to make that index a positive on in the minds of the voters.

Florida, this exciting state, is a microcosm of America, with all the political drive and every variety of tribalism based on generation, class, ideology, and race you could find. This is why Trump and Joe Biden took their campaigns there yesterday: they both held rallies in Tampa on the west coast of the Sunshine State.

On Thursday, the president held a huge rally, while the other guy held a drive-by rally that night. The person who introduced Trump was his wife, Melania, who generally doesn't speak at events like these. When Trump approached the podium, they exchanged a long hug and kiss. She reminded the audience, "We didn't just talk about it, we moved our embassy to Jerusalem."

Biden is predicting a win

Trump praised the economic success of his presidency. "Now it's very much bigger than any GDP we've ever had. You have to go back to the 1950s," he said, proud of the economic data that came out on Thursday. "They won't even talk about it. This is the biggest event in business in 50 years."

His opponent, Joe Biden, held his own rally in the town of Coconut Creek prior to arriving in Tampa early in the morning, Israel time. He made predictions to the people who came to his drive-by in their cars that "If Florida goes blue, it's over." Later, after the paper went to press, Biden was supposed to hold another election event in the state, also in Tampa – hours after Trump was there.

This year, the campaigns upgraded the mantra "Florida, Florida, Florida" to "Florida, Pennsylvania, Florida." It looks like no one knows which state is more important: the first, which gives 29 electoral votes to the winner and where early voting is a well-oiled machine that was put in place long before we knew what COVID was; or the second, which gives the winner 20 electoral votes, and was a blue state for 30 years until Trump "stole" it in 2016.

Focusing on Pennsylvania could lead to a victory in states in the critical Midwest, like Michigan and Wisconsin, but on the other hand, it's easier to campaign in Florida. It's a tough dilemma. Some 80 million people have already cast ballots in early voting, including 8 million in Florida. Based on a breakdown of voting districts, as of Thursday the Democrats seemed to have an advantage in early voting of some 200,000 votes.

This is no surprise, because the GOP tends to vote closer to Election Day and on the day itself.

We need to remember that Florida is very diverse, and the regular voter demographics don't always apply. For example, in the Latino community, the Cubans are dominant and they tend toward the Republicans. So the Democrats are putting their faith in other Latino sectors to balance them out, particularly Puerto Ricans who live in Florida.

'People are sick of it'

Biden also has a problem with young Black males when it comes to how excited they are about him, so his vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris, whose father is Black, will arrive this weekend to initiate a campaign and is also expected to bring in Indian Americans.

Biden is in trouble with Hispanics, but he might be able to take comfort in the fact that polls show that retirees are no longer in Trump's pocket like they were four years ago, because of COVID. Like in every election, it is likely that voters will "return home" in the next few days. Of course, we mustn't forget the Jews. Although the vast majority of them are expected to vote for Biden, older Jewish voters should be flocking to the polls and they are considered supporters of Trump because of what he has done for Israel.

An article in The Palm Beach Post said it was possible that polls aren't paying attention to the older Jewish Democrats who have switched sides in the last four years because the progressive wing is taking over their party.

It quoted one Jewish senior named Andre Fladell, a Democratic power broker in the community, who said, "The Jewish senior population has watched, over the past six years, a deterioration in Democratic support of Israel," Fladell said. "Trump has been extraordinarily strong for Israel … The voters are disgusted with both parties."

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If either side has a significant lead on the eve of the election in Florida, we will be able to call its electoral votes by 9 a.m. EST. But neither side really thinks this will happen, given the early voting records set this year. The polling average in the state isn't consistent, but in almost all of them the leader is meaningless, because the advantage lies in the margin of error.

So this year, too, "Florida, Florida, Florida" is mostly a big question mark, times three.

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The pace of events in the 2020 US presidential campaign isn't letting up. One event follows the next.

On Monday, President Donald Trump held three rallies in purple-state Pennsylvania, which could decide the election, and then immediately returned to Washington to put the bowtie on another huge achievement of his presidency – a third appointment to the Supreme Court – an hour after Judge Amy Coney Barrett was confirmed by the Senate.

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Shortly thereafter, we woke up to news of riots in Philadelphia after police shot a young man who was apparently threatening police officers with a knife.

Theoretically, neither the appointment of the justice nor the incident in Philadelphia has anything to do with the election, but in the era in which we live, everything is related. The Democrats will certainly use the events in Philadelphia to enlist their base, and claim that under Trump, the authorities have been more racist and quicker to pull the trigger. Of course, the Republicans and Trump himself will use Barrett's appointment to the Supreme Court as another draw to bring voters to the polls, reminding them that even if they don't like the president, he is the only one who will keep the court conservative, and also that he is appointing judges to lower federal courts at a dizzying rate (almost 200 thus far).

If these two events weren't enough, the COVID crisis across the US is also not letting up, and voters are voting early in droves, with the number of early votes already exceeding that of 2016. Over 60 million citizens have already had their say.

Trump summoned Barrett about an hour after she was confirmed, and she was sworn in at the White House by senior Justice Clarence Thomas. She received the job at a young age, 48, and it is hers for life. There are only eight others like her, and together they will decide fates and will shape the image of America for generations to come.

Trump praised Barrett's work, her excellence as a brilliant professor of law at Notre Dame University. "The Barrett family has captured America's heart," the president said, praising her seven children, who were watching from their home in Indiana. Barrett was the 115th justice nominated to the Supreme Court and is only the fifth woman to hold the job. America is so divided, however, that not a single Democrat voted for her, despite her qualities.

In America of 2020, everything is political, and that reminds us of another country. This was the first time in over 150 years that not a single person from the minority party voted for a nominee from the opposing party.

Barrett, by the way, could soon find herself in the eye of a storm if the election results aren't decisive, and both parties have to bring it to the justices to decide, as happened in 2000. It isn't clear, though, that the court would want to intervene in that political uproar. The Constitution is very clear – every state decides on its own electors, either through elections or otherwise.

But both parties remember Florida, and the Democrats are afraid that the Republicans, who control many states at the local level, will try to tamper with the results or the vote count and appoint electors in ways that skirt the vote, as state legislatures are allowed to do, under the Constitution. Even Republicans could appeal to various courts, claiming that the Democrats are committing voter fraud or submitting invalid ballots or ones that were not filled out by voters.

Letting loose on Harris

On Tuesday, the first lady also appeared. This was Melania Trump's first appearance this year at a major campaign event for her husband. At a rally, Trump promised that he would promote a tax cut for the middle class, and again warned that Biden would hurt American workers by promoting environmental policies that would close down the oil shale industry, which is very prevalent in the Midwest, and also cause gas prices to go up.

"You are so lucky I'm president. Look at the low price of gas," he said, stressing that Biden was "a cheerleader for NAFTA. You got killed by NAFTA … enthusiastically voted for China's entry into the World Trade Organization fueling the rise of China on the backs of Michigan workers." He went on to attack the media for not reporting his successes. He called the appointment of Justice Barrett "historic," and emphasized that she will "defend our God-given freedom." He also let loose on Biden's vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris, warning that she would effectively replace him because he would no longer be fit to serve: "Three weeks into his presidency, they'll say, 'Kamala, you're ready? That's why they're talking about the 25th Amendment."

He warned that she is "The most liberal person in the Senate… this will not be the first woman president" and said, "I'm working my a*s off here. Sleepy, Joe, the guy goes to his basement. He's got another lid … That's the garbage can." At the rally, he also praised his senior advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner, "who's leading peace in the Middle East without blood." The audience cheered when he mentioned his name.

A race against time

Back to Pennsylvania. On Monday, Trump held three rallies in a state where Biden is supposed to be a local son, because he grew up there, in Scranton, until he was nine. On Tuesday, the president sent his wife, Melania, to Pennsylvania and continued on to a series of rallies in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska. This, after three in Pennsylvania on Monday.

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Just before leaving, he attacked Biden for hiding in his basement and expressed pride in discomfiting him. "Sleepy Joe rushed to get to Pennsylvania because he saw that we had 25,000 people at my rally," Trump said. On Tuesday, Biden was in Georgia at another "drive-in" rally, because he thinks he has a real chance of nibbling away at the Republican South. It could be that the Democrats are wasting precious resources and even showing hubris, but we'll know in a week.

Michigan and Wisconsin, like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida, are critical states because both electoral lists, Republican and Democrat, can win there.

Polls are showing a close race, with a slight advantage for Biden in some states. Trump won all of them four years ago, but this year it looks like it's going to be very hard. Pennsylvania is still the big story. It is Ground Zero for this election. Incidentally, on Monday, Biden called his opponent "George" twice at a virtual event, alongside his wife, who appeared surprised. To whom was Biden referring? Some claim he meant the host, George Lopez, or George Bush.

Either way, the media and Trump rushed to celebrate the entertaining clip, which bolstered Trump's (unproven) claim Biden is unfit and incapable of even remembering his opponent's name and for what job he is running. In the meantime, other than Fox News, most channels continue to support Biden in very biased coverage, while accusing Trump of failing to handle the COVID crisis.

"I can promise you that he will win," I was told by Ted Halison, a resident of Lancaster who came to Trump's Monday rally at the local airport in his Pennsylvania town.

"The story of people not wanting to reveal their vote is right. But the huge early voting has to wake us up. In any case, I'm convinced there will be voter fraud. They don't want Trump," Halison says.

"Who doesn't?" I ask.

"Everyone other than the American people, who love him," he says.

At the hotel I stayed at in Harrisburg, the capital of Pennsylvania, there was a group who had just arrived from Charlotte, North Carolina. One of the members of the group, Larry, told me that Trump is dividing America too much: "That's why he is losing. Enough, we can't go on like this. America under Trump is losing standing in the world," he said. Larry and his wife already voted and he thinks that even if Republicans wake up now, it will be too late.

Trump himself can be encouraged by the size of the audiences his rallies are drawing. They are in love with him. On Monday, I attended one and I saw how excited they are about their president. The local paper The Patriot-News reported on its front page on Tuesday: "Trump's final-stretch campaign blitz draws big crowd in central Pa." A young Amish man who came to the rally with his friends told me that he wasn't sure he would vote, but eventually decided to because this was a very important election. Most Amish will, he said.

The Amish don't have cars or television and they are not allowed to use electricity, but the young man was able to tell me that Trump gets a lot more support than people think, and that the feeling among Trump supporters is that the polls don't reflect the true public support he has, which can be seen in the number of people who attend his campaign rallies. The Trump campaign is also worried by the fact that there is no third-party candidate who could help the president by splitting the Democratic vote.

More than 150 years ago, Pennsylvania was the site of the terrible Battle of Gettysburg during the Civil War. Next to the battlefield, President Abraham Lincoln made his famous speech calling to heal the country's wounds. It seems as if this year, too, Pennsylvania will be a bloodbath – political, thank God, and not in a real war.

I'm in Harrisburg, an hour away from that same important site, and it looks as if this year there is a civil war brewing over the character of America. But in the end, America will win, like always. 

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