In Eastern Europe, Russia and Ukraine continued their dance of destruction and death brought by the Russian invasion in 2022, and for the first time, Ukrainian army forces entered Russia's sovereign territory in the Kursk region and managed to hold it. In Southeast Asia and Africa, local conflicts ignited into full-scale wars – and behind all this unrest lies the fear of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, one that would put the Chinese giant face-to-face with the American superpower.

These various military confrontations are all local and based on separate histories and politics – but there are many common threads between the different fronts, and as time passes, these characteristics become increasingly clear. It begins with similar combat characteristics: the use of UAVs, drones, and ballistic missiles, simultaneous documentation uploaded to social media, and intensifies with media reports about Ukrainian intelligence assistance to rebels in Syria, or Russian forces' activity supporting the RSF organization in Sudan. Who could have imagined five years ago that North Korean soldiers would be fighting on Russian soil against Ukrainian forces charging on American tanks?

During the past year, regional conflicts became increasingly global, and fears grew of a total conflagration that would pit Western nations against a Russia-China-Iran axis in a war unlike anything the world has seen in many decades. To understand the developing crisis, with the end of 2024 and Donald Trump's entry to the White House approaching – let's examine some of the central arenas, and some less prominent ones, in the global crisis.

The Chinese Giant Threatens

Beijing's aspiration to annex Taiwan, which maintains an independent and democratic regime, is not a secret or suspicion, but rather the declared policy of the Chinese government since the 1950s. Due to American backing for the small nation, Beijing previously avoided invasion attempts that could have ended in military disaster, preferring to try to bring the rebellious government in Taipei closer through a combination of diplomacy and veiled threats.

However, in recent years, and especially since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Chinese threats have become less and less veiled. In the past decade, China has built an impressive naval force which, although never tested in battle, its size and superiority over Taipei's armed forces inspire confidence in Chinese authorities, and the idea of an amphibious operation to defeat the small nation seems less and less far-fetched.

While experts predicted that the Chinese were preparing for an invasion in 2027, Beijing began to intensify its naval and aerial exercises around the island in the past year, involving hundreds of aircraft and dozens of ships. The Chinese even practiced landing, ground force deployment, and seizure of government centers in the country. Additionally, a Chinese maritime militia began operating in coastal areas and islands near Taiwan, aiming to accustom the Taiwanese and Americans to a permanent Chinese presence in the area and "blind" them to Beijing's military actions.

It's important to note that a conflict between China and Taiwan, even without any foreign intervention, could be one of the largest and bloodiest the world has seen since World War II. Both sides have significant military capabilities, and if they choose to use them fully – the fighting could be long, difficult, and very costly. Such a conflict could also lead to an unprecedented economic crisis in the 21st century and the destruction of Taiwan's semiconductor industry, on which the global tech industry heavily relies. The question now is how much can the Taiwanese expect help from the Trump administration in case of a Chinese invasion, and more importantly – how much do those in Beijing think the president-elect will come to the aid of the small nation.

Russia-Ukraine Still Here

It's easy to forget that until three years ago, the possibility of a major conventional war in Europe seemed like an empty threat, meant to frighten voters in Western nations. But the Russia-Ukraine war is expected to enter its fourth year soon, the casualty rate is only increasing, and no real end to the fighting appears on the horizon.

In the past six months, the Russian army managed to capture extensive territories in eastern Ukraine, but paid for it in a terrible blood price that will make it difficult to continue fighting in the same manner without completely changing its recruitment system. Military bloggers estimated last week that the Russian army's casualty rate in a single week stands at more than 1,600 killed, not including wounded or missing – more than all IDF casualties since October 7. On the other hand, the Ukrainians are also suffering from an acute manpower shortage, and signs of war weariness are strongly felt in the country.

Despite this, or perhaps because of Kyiv's dire situation, the Ukrainians' success in holding onto the Kursk region in southwestern Russia, on Moscow's sovereign territory, is a severe blow to Russian prestige. Ukrainian control of the enclave will not allow Moscow to "compromise" on freezing the conflict as part of an agreement imposed by the incoming president, Trump. In fact, the Russians' problem may be even greater. Russia's economy, which has shown great resilience during the past three years, is beginning to show signs of breaking. The interest rate Moscow dictated is among the highest in the world, but the ruble's value continues to plummet, just as the foreign currency reserves Putin accumulated before the war are running out. With both sides battered, the possibility that Trump will at least succeed in bringing them to the negotiating table seems more likely than ever.

Collapse of the Shiite Axis

No arena in the world saw such dramatic upheavals in the past year as the Middle East. The "Shiite Crescent" – the axis Iran built from Beirut, Damascus, and Baghdad – was damaged and broken in an unprecedented way, after Hezbollah was severely struck by Israel and signed a ceasefire agreement, losing thousands of fighters and suffering major destruction of its strongholds in Lebanon and its military arsenal.

If the outcome of the confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah surprised the world – what happened a week later completely stunned it: In just over a week, a major rebel offensive managed to topple the Assad regime, which had ruled Syria for five decades, since the days of the father, Hafez Assad. Now, instead of looking at Israel's military activity in Gaza, the world's eyes are fixed on Damascus, where former al-Qaida member Abu Mohammad al-Jolani is working to establish a new government and bridge between the jihadist ideology that brought him to power and the pragmatic needs of rebuilding Syria.

The primary beneficiary of the sudden change in Syria is Turkey, which trained many of the rebel organizations and assisted them, maintaining strong connections with them. Ankara has already begun trying to cash in on the rebels' victory dividend, sending forces under its command to attack the Kurdish autonomy in the northeast of the country.

While a new regional order is being built in the Levant – south of there, on the Red Sea shores, things appear to be moving toward a boiling point. The Houthi rebels in Yemen, a pro-Iranian organization controlling the capital Sanaa and large parts of the country, continue to paralyze international maritime trade in the Red Sea, fire at US Navy ships, and launch ballistic missiles and UAVs toward Israel. This hot potato will roll straight into the lap of the new President Trump, who may seek a solution to the great embarrassment that Houthi rampaging is causing to American prestige in the region and to international shipping.

Desert Storm: Sudan

The civil war in Sudan can serve as a good example of enormous, violent, and unimaginably cruel events occurring under the world's media radar and bursting into consciousness only when something dramatic happens. The bloody war has been raging since April 2023, when forces of the Sovereignty Council head, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, began fighting against RSF organization members, a militia formerly loyal to the government but which rebelled with support from the UAE and Russia.

The UN estimates that between 60,000 and 150,000 people have been killed in less than a year of fighting, and that seven million people have become internally displaced as a result of the battles. For almost half a year, the fighting situation remained static, while the rebels controlled the outskirts of the capital Khartoum and the western part of the country. However, in recent months, al-Burhan's forces managed to push the rebels from extensive areas, including around the capital, and inflict heavy casualties on them.

Although the war receives sparse coverage in global media, if at all, it is intrinsically linked to power struggles between superpowers and other burning conflicts. Fighters from the Russian Wagner Force mercenary company have been documented countless times assisting the rebels, and Ukrainian intelligence personnel even published videos of them attacking Russians on Sudanese soil. Events in Syria also influence the war in Sudan. The possibility of Russian forces withdrawing from Syria could make it difficult for Moscow to continue its regular activities in Africa, forcing it to reduce its support for its allies in Sudan.

Ukraine in the Jungles: Myanmar

The past year was particularly bloody in Southeast Asia as well, with the civil war in Myanmar raging and turning into a life-or-death struggle between dozens of rebel organizations in the country and the military junta, which has ruled it with an iron fist since the military coup of 2021.

In October 2023, several large rebel organizations, in prior coordination and with assistance from foreign countries, launched a major offensive against the junta's rule and managed to take control of extensive parts of the country. The rebels employed drones, UAVs, and shoulder-launched missiles, while demonstrating skills and capabilities observed on battlefields in Ukraine and the Middle East.

The junta declared mandatory conscription of all young men in the country during the summer months, and the forced recruitment caused thousands to flee from junta-controlled territories and seek asylum in regional countries. Others joined the rebel ranks, fueling the endless fighting. Here too, superpower involvement is felt. While Thailand chose to side with several rebel organizations, China armed and operated ethnic Chinese in the north of the country to fight the junta and pressure it. However, in recent months China decided to "switch sides" and aligned with the military junta leader, ordering rebel organizations under its influence to cease offensive activities.

It's hard to say how successful Beijing's gamble was, as the rebels, including those previously supported by China, continue their war against junta rule, and it's possible that China's change of direction came too little too late for the military junta's control.

The Match That Will Ignite the Fire

The transition from the long peace period after the Soviet Union's fall and the end of the Cold War to a period of regional conflicts, and the possibility of a global-scale war erupting, are things military and political experts have been discussing for some time, long before the October 7 events and the major escalation in the Middle East.

Professor Danny Orbach, a military historian from the Hebrew University's History and Asian Studies departments, published an article in July 2023 explaining that the world is on the brink of a war that could collapse the old order, and provides a chilling forecast, "What will come after the war is very hard to know, but it will clearly be more interesting, in the sinister sense of the word, worse, more chaotic.

"World War II began as a series of local conflicts that connected into one war. A local war between Germany and Poland became a regional war, which turned into a European war with Germany's invasion of the USSR. The war became global several months later, when the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor, and the war between Japan and China connected through the US to the war happening in Europe.

"Today we see three such local conflicts in the world: we see the tension between China and Taiwan, Russia versus Ukraine, and Israel against Iran. The great powers are involved in these conflicts. China is involved in its own and partially in others, Russia is involved in all three, and the US is naturally involved in all three conflicts. The danger is this connection, which could ignite and unite the three arenas into one war," Orbach explains.

If that's not enough, Orbach explains that instability between the superpowers encourages players who were previously excluded from international play to act in ways that could ignite the fire the whole world fears. "For instance, Kim Jong-un might decide that since the world is busy with other matters – this is exactly the right time for him to take major action against the South. It has happened before that such a misunderstanding of the opposing superpower's intentions drew North Korea into an attack. Stalin, who misinterpreted the American Secretary of State's words, assumed that the US would not intervene in case of a North Korean army invasion of the South – a mistaken assumption that brought a bloody war," he says.

Today, such a small mistake is enough to throw the entire world into war. "It's enough that Xi Jinping assumes the US won't intervene because Trump is an isolationist, or because it's preoccupied with events elsewhere, and then Washington decides to intervene," Orbach says with concern. "Beyond destruction and death on an enormous scale, such a war could lead to a reversal of the social and political order that enabled the rise of democracies."

The West and the Barnacle Problem

The old world order, now threatened by the possibility of war, is maintained by America's enormous military capability and the deep pockets of its partners in Europe, Japan, Korea, and other places in the world. However, according to Orbach, the West is entering this dangerous period with one hand tied behind its back. To explain the processes that led to this, Orbach needs a metaphor from the field of maritime and marine biology, comparing the decision-making system in democratic countries to a ship.

"The ship accumulates over time a layer of barnacles, small animals that attach to the vessel's hull, slowing it down and making it harder to maneuver until they're cleaned off. Like the ship, advanced Western democratic countries progress over the years. They accumulate more laws, regulations, rules, and decision-making processes that slow them down and restrict their elected officials' actions. Look how long it takes to add a country to the European Union. How long it takes to supply new weapons to Ukraine, even when they want to do it. How long it takes to approve a civil service worker, how long it takes to do a security check for a new CIA employee. If you check, you'll see it's constantly getting longer. That's because every politician wants to add another law, another transparency regulation, another accessibility regulation, another anti-discrimination regulation. All these together create an increasing burden on decision-making processes and make policy implementation difficult," says the historian.

The process, familiar to almost all of us regarding dealing with state bureaucracy and obstacles, makes it difficult for Western nations to respond to threats quickly and effectively. The problem is indeed clearly evident in the Biden administration's response to threats like the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the Houthi attack in Yemen on international shipping routes in the Red Sea. The desire and ability to respond forcefully were indeed there – but the long response time and limitations on the nature of response imposed by the barriers diluted the White House's steps, allowed the conflict to drag on, and increased the risk of even greater escalation.

"These problems don't bother the West's rivals, like Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and China, but they greatly restrict democracies," Orbach maintains. Another problem he raises is the dominance of international law and international institutions in Western powers' actions. "Think, for instance, that during the conflict with Iran, the West might consider recognizing Somaliland's independence – something very difficult according to international law, which forbids recognizing separatists without the parent state's consent. All this makes Western nations slower and more predictable, which could encourage their rivals to take action."

The Trump Card

Donald Trump's entry to the White House, in such a turbulent period, puts a huge question mark over America's commitment to its allies in each and every one of the local and regional conflicts currently taking place in the world. Orbach himself believes this might prove to be a strength, rather than a weakness, for the Western side.

"Trump, more than being an isolationist, is a deal-oriented man. He very much dislikes commitments he doesn't understand the benefit of, he despises the slow action of international institutions, and he likes to reach deals he thinks are good for America," says Orbach. "There are many bad things Trump can do, like getting into fights with foreign countries without real reason, encouraging enemies of the West like Putin and Xi Jinping. The good thing he can do is take steps that will improve America's ability to respond to threats quickly and effectively. Countries will need to explain to Trump why he needs to invest in their defense, and do it themselves. This could shake off decades of laziness and over-reliance on America. It could cause Western nations to rethink their political conventions."

As advice for citizens of a democratic Western nation, Orbach believes that the most important thing to do to allow our state's ship to move forward is to shed the damage caused by identity politics that has spread in the West in recent decades, from both right and left. "For us to have a chance to overcome the challenges that the near future provides, we must put pragmatism as a supreme value, and choose politicians who don't hide behind a mask of identity, but rather offer orderly work plans," he concludes.

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The crisis compounds an existing personnel shortage. In 2022, a record 613 majors left career service, with departures temporarily slowing only after the war's outbreak in late 2023. Current trends suggest 2025 could see even higher departure rates.

Career personnel cite multiple factors beyond combat stress. While reservists receive public recognition, substantial bonuses, and family support services, career officers working similar hours receive standard salaries and minimal additional benefits. Within the same unit, reservists may earn up to 50,000 shekels monthly including bonuses, while career personnel maintain constant operational tempo without comparable compensation.

"My son's classmates from reservist families received school recognition and support, while he was excluded because I'm a career soldier," one combat commander told Israel Hayom. "How should he process this while I'm fighting in Gaza?"

The timing proves particularly challenging as the IDF plans significant expansion. Pre-war career personnel numbered about 42,000, rising to 45,000 during the conflict. Additional increases are needed to establish new combat units and support functions, yet recruitment struggles persist.

The crisis extends beyond junior officers. Unit commanders, including those in combat roles, increasingly question their continued service. While only five lieutenant colonels left non-combat positions in 2024, indicators suggest concerning trends across all ranks for 2025.

The IDF has implemented countermeasures, including unpublicized bonuses for combat commanders and retirement age changes. However, these efforts may prove insufficient against the growing exodus.

Military leadership acknowledges this represents a strategic threat to Israel's security. The departure of qualified personnel creates a critical leadership vacuum that could force compromise on commander qualifications, potentially causing long-term damage to military effectiveness.

"This isn't just about numbers," a senior officer emphasized. "Wars aren't won with equipment alone. They're won by the quality of personnel operating that equipment. We're at risk of losing our most experienced leaders exactly when we need them most."

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As a ceasefire agreement in the north appears imminent under US President Joe Biden's administration, Donald Trump's team is searching for someone to manage Lebanese affairs. Guy Nohra, a Lebanese-born American businessman and fervent Trump supporter, may be the chosen candidate for this role.

Nohra visited Israel last week, where he met with senior officials, toured various sites, and delivered a speech at a business entrepreneurship conference. Despite this being his first visit to the country, his identification with Israel appears absolute, to the extent that he speaks of the United States and Israel in the plural. "We must win this war," he says, then corrects himself, "I mean, you need to win. You're the ones fighting and paying the heavy price. But I'm here because you and we are the last democracies."

Born in Mount Lebanon in 1968, Christian-born Nohra joined Lebanon's internal conflicts at age 15, deceiving his parents, until he was wounded by PLO gunfire. Following this incident, his family fled to the United States, where he rebuilt his life from scratch. "I have an affinity for Lebanon and would like to help it, but I feel completely American," he said during our meeting at a Jerusalem hotel. Indeed, neither his accent nor any other detail betrays his country of origin.

A natural entrepreneur, Nohra launched a distinguished business career in life sciences and pharmaceuticals, amassing an estimated fortune of $2 billion. At the beginning of the decade, he decided he "wanted to give back to the country that had given him so much," so he ran for various positions in Nevada and integrated into the conservative party leadership in the southern state. He also made a decisive contribution – both organizationally and financially – to Trump's victory in Nevada in the recent elections, marking the first time in 20 years that a Republican presidential candidate won there.

Nohra's support for Trump is unconditional. He is convinced that the president-elect will save the world in general and its democratic parts in particular. His part, he hopes, will be rehabilitating the country he fled as a child. "Lebanon needs internal peace and external peace with Israel, but without the first, there won't be the second," he said.

When asked how to achieve internal peace in a country that has been internally divided for fifty years, regardless of the war with Israel, he responded: "My model is Switzerland, but I know it will be difficult, yet this is Lebanon's opportunity to rejoin the world."

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President Vladimir Putin has announced significant changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine, a move that comes just two days after President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use US-manufactured weapons for strikes within Russian territory, CNN has learned.

The updated doctrine, released on Tuesday, establishes that Moscow will treat any aggression from a non-nuclear state that involves a nuclear-armed nation as a combined assault against Russia.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov explained that "the Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression using conventional weapons against it and/or the Republic of Belarus."

The revision appears to expand Russia's definition of what constitutes aggression against the nation, with nuclear deterrence remaining a fundamental component of Russian military strategy, according to CNN.

"An important element of this document is that nuclear deterrence is aimed at ensuring that a potential adversary understands the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation or its allies," Peskov told reporters, as reported by CNN.

The Kremlin's announcement of nuclear policy modifications arrives as Russia responds to the Biden administration's decision permitting Ukraine to employ advanced long-range American weaponry within Russian borders. Russian officials have previously indicated to CNN that such a move would represent a dangerous escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.

According to Bloomberg, Ukraine has conducted its first strike within Russian territory using American-provided missiles, coinciding with Moscow's announcement of broader nuclear weapon usage criteria. According to RBC Ukraine, citing military sources, Ukrainian forces targeted a facility in Russia's Bryansk region using ATACMS missiles, marking the first such deployment since Washington authorized their limited use against Russian targets.

Ukrainian military leadership confirmed striking an ammunition depot in Karachev, located approximately 71 miles from the Ukrainian border, resulting in the detonation of stored munitions. Military officials declined to specify which weapons were employed in the operation, citing security protocols.

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The Finance Ministry anticipates a third revision of the 2024 state budget, as US aid promised to Israel is not expected to arrive in time for use in the current fiscal year. Additionally, the expansion of military operations in the north and the commencement of ground maneuvers in Lebanon will necessitate an increase in the defense budget, requiring additional funds.

The budgetary expenditure is expected to grow by approximately $5.4 billion to $6.2 billion. The Finance Ministry had initially relied on about $4.9 billion in anticipated US aid, but these funds have been significantly delayed and are not expected to arrive soon. Furthermore, the US is imposing various restrictions on the use of these funds, which are currently under discussion between the two nations.

The implications of this delay mean that the budget deficit is likely to exceed initial projections. The planned deficit for 2024 was originally set at about 0.8%. With the outbreak of war and the sharp increase in expenses, it was inevitably raised to approximately 6.6%. In recent months, state revenues have grown beyond forecasts, allowing the government to meet its revised deficit target despite increased war-related expenses. However, the current budget gap, primarily due to the delay in receiving US funds, will necessitate further increasing the deficit, potentially reaching 7.7-8% of GDP.

The opening of an additional front in Lebanon means an immediate and extensive addition to the defense budget. The IDF has deployed four divisions to the north and is increasing the number of reserve soldiers daily. Each reservist represents a significant expense, not only in terms of reserve duty pay but also in logistics such as transportation, food, and other maintenance costs. These expenses are immediate, requiring the identification of budgetary sources right away.

Currently, there is no clear estimate of the number of reservists required for combat in Lebanon or the duration of operations on this front. It is unknown whether it will conclude soon or extend into the next year, and consequently, what additional budget will be required. The Finance Ministry estimates that the expected cost for mobilizing reserves will range between $544 million and $1.36 billion, which was not originally planned in the 2024 budget.

Other costs associated with the northern front, such as ammunition, missiles, and Iron Dome interceptors, are not expected to impact this year's budget but will affect next year's. Naturally, the ammunition being used today has already been purchased and paid for, as the IDF prepared in advance for operations in Lebanon and maintained sufficient inventory. When the need arises for restocking and replenishing supplies, the cost will be factored into future budgets, typically spread over several years. In this sense, Finance Ministry officials say the problem is primarily cash flow-related, as the money from the United States will eventually arrive and will be used to replenish the required inventory.

When planning the revised budget, the Finance and Defense ministries relied on the aid package promised by US President Joe Biden last October. However, in practice, considerable time passed before the aid package for Israel was approved by Congress in April 2024.

The United States was supposed to transfer about $8.7 billion to Israel as part of an aid program with various components; approximately $3.5 billion is a flexible budget that Israel can use for procurement according to its needs. Even this amount was delayed but finally reached Israel about a week ago.

The remainder, about $5.2 billion, comes with various conditions and is earmarked for specific needs; approximately $4 billion is designated for air defense, namely for various types of interceptors such as Iron Dome, Arrow system, and David's Sling, and another $1.2 billion for financing the laser interception system. These amounts are still delayed, and the Finance Ministry assumes they will not be transferred to Israel in the current fiscal year. The defense establishment has already purchased and used large quantities of interceptors, but the budgetary source intended for them has not arrived.

In recent months, disagreements have arisen with the Americans over how Israel can use the amount in question, at what stage the administration will transfer the money, and around questions such as whether it can be used to finance interceptors already purchased or only future purchases. It is not inconceivable that part of the delay or insistence on American requirements, if any, is also related to political difficulties with the current US administration in light of the expanding war. The issue of aid and its modes of use are under discussion at the political level but have not yet been finalized.

The 2024 budget has already been amended twice. The first time was in March, and the second time about a month ago when the need to increase the budget by about $925 million for payments to evacuees from the north and south became apparent.

The Finance Ministry prepared the revised budget based on the assumption that the war would last about six months, and estimating that the number of reserve soldiers at this stage would be significantly lower. Meanwhile, the war is extending beyond expectations and expanding to additional fronts, and reserve soldiers are already beginning their third and fourth rotations this year.

However, neither the scenario of war on the northern front nor the delay in US aid funds surprised anyone in Jerusalem; for many months, the Finance Ministry has been concerned about delays in American aid funds and especially about certain conditions that might be imposed on them, and they have already begun to prepare for such a possibility. Nevertheless, one must wonder why they made a budget amendment only a month ago when they already estimated that the aid funds would not arrive on time and that another budget update would be needed. Ultimately, the Finance Ministry preferred to deal with urgent payments to evacuees and postpone concerns about other amounts for later.

Reopening the budget just weeks after its amendment is an unusual step and sends a problematic message. Its meaning, beyond exceeding the deficit target, is damaging Israel's credibility with credit rating agencies and investors. If Israel fails to meet the budget constraints it has set for itself, it's a troubling signal about its ability to regulate expenses and meet its commitments. Naturally, the war necessitated a budget correction to address the unexpected increase in expenses, but opening it for a second and third time may signal a loss of control over expenses.

Two credit rating agencies, Moody's and S&P, have already lowered Israel's credit rating this month due to security developments in Lebanon and with Iran. Moody's also negatively noted the government's economic policy and expressed a lack of confidence in its ability to promote significant changes that would bring the budget to a convergence trend. The Governor of the Bank of Israel also referred to this in the interest rate decision this week. It's important to listen and take seriously the assessments of the rating companies, said Prof. Amir Yaron. They reflect the challenges and risks facing the Israeli economy as the world sees it. The rating agencies emphasize the impact of the geopolitical reality but also reflect the impact of fiscal policy management, emphasizing the importance of the future policy outline, he said.

The governor also referred to the possibility of opening the budget due to increased expenses and said, The rule is that there is a budget framework. It's clear that breaking it negates the whole idea of a binding budget framework. However, we are in a period where the war has been prolonged. There is a need to finance the evacuees, there is an increase in war expenses in the north that was unexpected, and in addition, there was a cash flow diversion from the special American aid. All these combined. I would have preferred everything to be done at once, along with the execution of the 2025 budget, it would have strengthened confidence.

The Accountant General at the Finance Ministry Yali Rotenberg recently published the updated deficit data for the last twelve months. The cumulative budget deficit reached a level of 8.5% of GDP during this period, which is about $45.15 billion. The increase in the deficit is mainly due to high expenses in the defense system and civilian ministries due to the war. The estimate of war expenses since the beginning of the year stood at $21.33 billion, and since the outbreak of the war at $28.16 billion. The deficit target set by the government for the 2024 budget stands, as mentioned, at a level of 6.6% of GDP.

The Finance Ministry believes that the deficit has reached its peak and is expected to decrease in the coming months. Since the deficit is calculated for twelve months backward, the current deficit level includes the first three months of the war, during which there was a huge spike in defense expenses.

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The upcoming inauguration of Mexico's president-elect Claudia Sheinbaum has become a focal point of international attention, as Ukraine calls for the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin should he attend the event. The Ukrainian embassy in Mexico made the request on Aug. 7, citing an international arrest warrant issued against Putin for alleged war crimes.

According to The Kyiv Independent, the Ukrainian embassy expressed gratitude to Mexico for inviting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the Oct. 1 ceremony, while also urging compliance with the arrest warrant. "We trust that the Mexican government will comply with the international arrest warrant and hand over the aforementioned [Putin] to the United Nations judicial body in The Hague," the embassy stated.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued the arrest warrant for Putin in March 2023, accusing him of war crimes related to the forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia following Moscow's invasion in early 2022.

Juan Ramon de la Fuente, designated as Sheinbaum's foreign minister, explained that inviting leaders of all countries with which Mexico has diplomatic relations, including both Russia and Ukraine, is "standard protocol" for such events.

The situation is complicated by Mexico's ICC membership and its strengthening ties with Russia. Putin congratulated Sheinbaum on her June victory, referring to Mexico as Russia's "historically friendly partner" in Latin America.

Sheinbaum, set to become Mexico's first female president, secured a historic win in the general election on June 2 and will begin her six-year term in October. Both Putin and Zelenskyy were among the world leaders who extended their congratulations.

The Kyiv Independent also reported that according to Russia's Izvestia newspaper, Mexico has formally invited Putin to attend the inauguration. The newspaper cited the Mexican embassy in Russia as its source for this information.

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Hezbollah released new footage on Tuesday, claiming that one of its surveillance drones successfully penetrated Israeli airspace and captured images of various strategic and sensitive locations.

Video: Hezbollah's drone footage published on July 9, 2024

The video, which includes alleged footage of military installations and critical infrastructure, has raised concerns about the group's intelligence-gathering capabilities and the potential security implications for Israel.

The footage supposedly obtained by one of its reconnaissance drones that entered Israeli territory. The video purportedly showcases several high-value targets, including an electric power station, Haifa's airport, a submarine dock at a naval port, intelligence facilities, military outposts in the Mount Hermon area, and various command centers.

This latest release comes approximately one month after a similar video was made public. In the new footage from Tuesday, Hezbollah asserts that it successfully documented IDF strategic assets, including troop assembly points and the positions of Iron Dome air defense batteries.

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In a devastating wave of attacks early Monday, Russia unleashed a barrage of over 40 missiles across Ukraine, resulting in at least 21 fatalities, according to Ukrainian officials. The assault, one of the largest in recent months, struck multiple cities and caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed via social media that Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital in Kyiv, one of Ukraine's most respected pediatric facilities, was among the targets hit.

"And the entire world must use all its determination to finally put an end to the Russian strikes. Killing is what Putin brings," Zelenskyy stated. "Only together can we bring real peace and security."

The missile strikes extended beyond Kyiv, impacting cities such as Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk. In Kryvyi Rih, Zelenskyy's hometown, at least 10 people lost their lives, while three more were killed in Pokrovsk, according to local officials.

The Security Service of Ukraine has initiated a criminal investigation into the hospital strike, labeling it a "war crime." Preliminary findings suggest that a Russian Kh-101 missile was responsible for the damage to the medical facility.

This large-scale attack comes on the eve of a three-day NATO summit in Washington, where US President Joe Biden is set to meet with alliance members. The timing is significant, as NATO is expected to discuss increased military and financial support for Ukraine. A senior White House official said recently that "significant" announcements regarding aid to Ukraine are anticipated during the summit.

A doctor at the hospital informed local media that the missile destroyed a building where two surgeries were in progress at the time of the attack, further highlighting the devastating impact on medical services and civilian lives.

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Senior Israeli officials have warned that the IDF may soon decide whether to launch a major offensive against the Hezbollah terror organization in Lebanon after months of escalating clashes, The Washington Post reported. 

The current round of conflict began following the Oct. 7 onslaught after Hezbollah launched missiles into Israeli territory in an unprovoked attack. Tensions have since risen to their highest point since the 2006 Lebanon War. 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi have suggested Israel is prepared to take decisive military action to restore security in the north. Netanyahu vowed to achieve this "one way or another," while Halevi said the army was ready for an offensive after training. Another cabinet minister, Benny Gantz, pledged the hostilities would be dealt with by summer's end through either diplomacy or military escalation.

Despite initiating the current round of hostilities, Hezbollah has stated it does not want full-blown war but is ready for one if imposed. Its deputy leader said their decision is not to widen the conflict but added that "if it is imposed on us, we are ready for it." Hezbollah has also said no deal can happen before a ceasefire in Gaza.

The US and its allies have pushed for months for an agreement to demarcate the border, move Hezbollah back, and increase the Lebanese army's presence.

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Approximately one week ago convened a summit of top terror leaders in the Middle East. In attendance were Hamas' political bureau chief, Ismail Haniyeh, Iranian generals Hossein Salami and Quds Force commander Gen. Esmail Ghaani (commanders of the Revolutionary Guards and Quds Force), a Houthi representative, senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine officials, and Hezbollah's deputy secretary general, Naim Qassem. Per Arab sources, at the meeting, they decided on further escalation against Israel to pressure it to withdraw from the Gaza Strip without a hostage deal.

The shooting incident at Bat Hefer is also connected to efforts by the pro-Iranian axis. Hamas terrorists opened distant fire toward Bat Hefer. Though there were no casualties, this was not an isolated incident. In recent days, another shooting occurred toward a checkpoint in the same area. In that event, a different terror cell claimed responsibility. Footage indicated a local terror cell was involved, and the video was not circulated on Hamas' official Telegram channel.

It appears the terrorists are linked to the Nur Shams refugee camp adjacent to Tulkarm. While the IDF has recently operated in the camp, neutralizing terrorists, it remains an enduring threat requiring continued mitigation.  

Palestinian sources aligned with the Palestinian Authority recently expressed worry over the emergence of an "Iranian-loyal foothold" in the Tulkarm area. A group comprising terrorists from various terror factions (primarily the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas – both Iranian-funded). Notably, cooperation among disparate terror cells has become commonplace in Judea and Samaria, as witnessed in Jenin and Nablus. Accordingly, a Palestinian source within the city voiced apprehension about "difficult days ahead" regarding IDF operations.

Another arena is Iraq, where pro-Iranian militias have increased katyusha rocket launches toward Israel. In certain instances, the projectiles approach the border before interception by the IDF. Just this week, two katyushas bound for Eilat were downed, with another eastbound katyusha downed last week. In both cases, Israel's allies failed to intercept the threats.

In the northern arena, Hezbollah has escalated its rate of daily attacks. Its terrorists have been documented approaching within dozens of meters of the border, fully armed, firing toward IDF outposts. Exploiting dense vegetation, the camouflaged terrorists maneuver, some armed with machine guns and RPGs. 

Lastly, in Yemen the Houthis recently declared a "new phase," attacking several vessels in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean over recent days. In certain instances, the Houthis claimed the targeted ships were Israel-linked, while in others stating they were bound for the country's ports. Arab media reported that Iran supplied the Houthis with ballistic missiles.  

Earlier on Wednesday, the Houthi spokesman claimed attacks on multiple Israel-bound ships, including three in the Red Sea and two in the Arabian Sea. He further alleged a sixth vessel was struck in the Mediterranean by cruise missiles, though this lacked corroboration. Regardless, the sequence of events substantiates that Iran and its proxies are endeavoring to intensify pressure on Israel, with the objective of aiding Hamas.

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