That last issue may be the most critical. Iran is the engine driving regional wars and terrorism. Israeli intelligence and security establishments have devoted extensive work to preparing the case, assembling the evidence and drawing the conclusion that as long as the current regime in Tehran remains in power, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to advance meaningful processes on any of Israel's other fronts. This includes expanding the Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia and other partners.

In Lebanon, Iran maintains Hezbollah, rebuilds its capabilities and missile arsenal in the Beqaa Valley, and bars the terrorist organization from any compromise regarding disarmament. Sheikh Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's secretary-general, has escalated his rhetoric by the day. In Syria, Iran stirs friction through militias and tribes it supports in order to prevent an arrangement with Israel, while also attempting to establish terrorist cells along the Golan Heights border.

In Gaza, Iran operates through its proxies under the leadership of Hamas, hardening the organization's positions in negotiations to prevent the surrender of weapons and governing authority. It also threatens the Gulf states, warning that in the next military confrontation it would strike oil facilities and paralyze tanker traffic in the Persian or Arab Gulf.

Yet on the path toward confronting Iran, Israel is dealing with a very friendly US administration whose internal views differ, both on Iran and on several other arenas.

Back to war with Iran?

According to American and Israeli sources, one side of the divide includes envoy Steve Witkoff and senior adviser Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law, while the other includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio, backed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Witkoff and Kushner, who in practice manage the negotiations on behalf of the president, are pushing for rapid progress across all fronts.

On Iran, the Defense Department, led by Hegseth, supports the intelligence Israel has provided regarding Iran's renewed buildup of missile systems and air defenses. Hegseth aligns with Rubio's hardline approach toward Iran, including the demand for an ultimatum before any negotiations begin. Witkoff, by contrast, believes Iran can be prevented from returning to its nuclear program and is particularly wary of renewed war, partly because of the danger Iran poses to other Gulf states and their oil infrastructure.

Gaza is at the top of the talks alongside Iran, in part because of the president's strong desire to move toward a complete end to the war. Here, Witkoff and Kushner argue for advancing to Phase Two, pressuring Israel to open the Rafah crossing and prepare for a second withdrawal. Sources say they are seeking workarounds to the issue of Hamas disarmament, potentially stretching the process over a long period. Rubio, whose department in previous Democratic administrations often pushed to impose solutions on Israel, is taking the opposite approach this time.

According to the sources, Rubio has presented more cautious positions and insists on adhering to the Trump plan framework. That means demanding Hamas' disarmament and the transfer of governing authority before a full Israeli withdrawal. Rubio is also cautious on Turkey and supports Israel's position opposing the involvement of Turkish troops in the multinational ISF force. Defense Secretary Hegseth, who receives briefings from US Central Command chief Gen. Brad Cooper and from the headquarters in Kiryat Gat, is aware of Hamas' violations, its seizure of aid supplies and the importance of an Israel Defense Forces presence in the Gaza Strip. Another unresolved issue is the role of the Palestinian Authority in weapons collection and in the new governance arrangement in Gaza.

Political sources who spoke with Israel Hayom say there is a strong likelihood of an announcement on the new governing body and the international oversight mechanism, as well as a date for opening Phase Two talks, even though the body of hostage Ran Gvili has not yet been returned. Gvili's family traveled with the prime minister's delegation to showcase the need for full implementation of Phase One before moving to the next one. A compromise is likely to include a presidential statement affirming the necessity and commitment to bringing Ran home, along with caveats tying progress to the next phase to that obligation.

The internal US debate has not escaped Israeli attention. An Israeli official said it is clear who in the administration is briefing against Israel in an effort to create pressure for concessions and a rapid but dangerous agreement to end the war. Witkoff is expected to attend the president's meeting with Netanyahu, while the prime minister met separately with Rubio on Monday, ahead of the meeting with Trump.

The opportunity 

Two additional issues that Trump and his team want to advance in meetings with Netanyahu are civilian talks with the Lebanese government and negotiations over a security arrangement with the al-Sharaa administration in Syria. Here, US officials see an opportunity to set positive processes in motion that could pull the entire region forward. According to a regional diplomat, differences over Syria can be bridged, and with Lebanon there are many shared interests that could form the basis of a future agreement.

Netanyahu himself said last week, in response to a question from Israel Hayom, that Israel wants to see a sovereign and stable Lebanon. In the same breath, he added that Hezbollah terrorists operated by Iran must be addressed.

Syria introduces an additional player to the talks: Turkey. Ankara, the patron of al-Sharaa, is seeking to establish a full protectorate and in doing so to restrict Israel's freedom of action in Syrian airspace and on the ground.

That airspace is critical for Israel on the route to Iran. According to unverified reports, Turkey is moving radar batteries into Syrian territory, which would enable it to detect Israeli Air Force flights.

Two more issues are also expected to come up. One is the memorandum of understanding (MOU) on security assistance between the two countries, which is set to expire in 2027 and now requires groundwork in preliminary talks. Alongside this, the sides are expected to raise economic, technological and trade relations, from tariffs to cooperation in advanced technology research.

The breadth of issues is likely to necessitate a second meeting between Netanyahu and Trump. Tuesday has been left open on the schedule, partly to allow room for such a meeting. Another option is that the prime minister will remain in the US and the meeting will take place next week. That scenario is likely if truly significant developments emerge.

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Monday is slated to be the anticipated meeting with President Trump, the most important and dramatic day of the visit. Two issues are on the agenda on which decisions are expected to be made between the two leaders: Iran and Gaza. A second meeting with the president is also possible. As reported by Israel Hayom, there are internal disagreements within the administration on both issues, and it is still unclear which stance the president will choose.

A hard line

On Iran, Israel is continually providing intelligence on Tehran's renewed buildup of missile systems and air defense capabilities. Jerusalem's goal is to reach a coordinated timetable for economic and diplomatic action against Iran. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio support a hard-line approach toward Iran, including issuing an ultimatum before any negotiations begin.

By contrast, presidential adviser Steve Witkoff believes it is possible to prevent Iran's return to its nuclear program and is particularly wary of resuming war, partly because of the threat Iran could pose to other Gulf states and their oil facilities. There is near-consensus that some of Israel's actions, including the expansion of settlements, harm the prospects for progress toward normalization.

On Gaza and the transition to Phase Two, envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner, who are effectively managing the talks on the president's behalf, are pushing for rapid progress on all fronts. This includes moving to Phase Two and pressuring Israel to open the Rafah Crossing and prepare for a second withdrawal.

Sources say they are trying to find workarounds to the issue of Hamas' disarmament and possibly spread it out over a prolonged period.

Their proposal includes beginning reconstruction before disarmament. Israel is willing to start reconstruction only in areas under its control, and even then at a slow pace, to prevent Hamas, the terrorist organization, from exploiting the entry of equipment, machinery and construction materials. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who heads a department that in past Democratic administrations often tended to pressure Israel into solutions, is taking the opposite approach this time.

According to the sources, Rubio has presented more cautious positions and is insisting on adherence to the Trump plan framework, namely a firm demand for Hamas' disarmament and the transfer of governing authority before a full Israeli withdrawal.

Rubio is also cautious on Turkey, backing the Israeli position opposing the involvement of Turkish troops in the multinational ISF force. Another unresolved issue is the Palestinian Authority and its potential role in weapons collection and governance in the Strip.

Wednesday will be devoted to meetings with leaders of American Jewish communities, focusing on strengthening ties, community security and the fight against antisemitism. That same day, meetings are scheduled with senior representatives of the evangelical Christian community in the US, one of Israel's largest support bases.

Additional meetings are planned with pro-Israel American elected officials, as well as a visit to a synagogue in Miami. As of now, Netanyahu is due to return to Israel on Thursday afternoon, Miami time, but there is a strong possibility that his stay will be extended until early next week.

Two issues that Trump and his team are keen to advance in meetings with Netanyahu are civilian talks with the Lebanese government and negotiations toward a security arrangement with the al-Sharaa administration in Syria.

Officials in the administration see an opportunity to initiate positive moves. According to a regional diplomat, disagreements over Syria are bridgeable, and with Lebanon there are many shared interests that could serve as the foundation for a future agreement. Netanyahu himself said this week, in response to a question from Israel Hayom, that Israel wants to see a sovereign and stable Lebanon.

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The divide pits Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner against Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has the support of Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.

Witkoff and Kushner, who are effectively managing the contacts on behalf of the president, are pushing for rapid progress on all fronts, including progression to Phase 2 and compelling Israel to reopen the Rafah crossing while preparing for the second withdrawal. According to these sources, they have pursued workarounds to Hamas disarmament requirements, potentially considerably extending the timeline.

Rubio, who leads the department that historically pressured Israel toward concessions during Democratic administrations, has adopted the opposite approach. According to the sources, his positions emphasize caution and adherence to Trump's 20-point framework. Specifically, he insists on stripping Hamas of weaponry and transferring governance authority before any complete Israeli pullback.

Rubio has also exercised restraint on the Turkish question (Turkey's role in regional security frameworks), endorsing Israel's position against incorporating Turkish forces into the International Security Force (the multinational contingent envisioned for Gaza). Hegseth, who receives intelligence from Central Command chief Brad Cooper and the Kiryat Gat Civil-Military Coordination Center, recognizes Hamas violations, aid theft, and the necessity of maintaining IDF presence in the Strip. The Palestinian Authority's involvement in weapons collection and future Gaza Strip governance represents another unresolved dispute.

The Iranian challenge

Regarding Iran, the Defense Department and Hegseth validate intelligence Israel provides about reconstituted missile arrays and air defense networks, aligning with Rubio's firm position on Iran and issuing an ultimatum before entertaining negotiations.

Witkoff maintains that preventing Iran's nuclear resurgence remains achievable while objecting primarily to warfare resumption, citing risks to additional Gulf nations and their petroleum infrastructure from Iranian retaliation. Notably, this stance enjoys near-universal administration support, particularly since Israeli actions including settlement expansion undermine normalization prospects. Trump administration factions advocate applying Israeli sovereignty over West Bank territories within comprehensive agreements, resembling proposals from the Deal of the Century (Trump's 2020 Middle East peace initiative) unveiled six years ago.

This internal debate has not escaped Israeli attention. An Israeli official acknowledged that certain administration figures brief against Israel, manufacturing pressure for compromises and expedited yet perilous war-ending arrangements. Witkoff will join the presidential meeting with Netanyahu, while the prime minister separately consults Rubio, whose positions apparently kindle optimism in Jerusalem.

Meanwhile, applying Israeli law throughout Judea and Samaria will surface among numerous discussion topics during Trump-Netanyahu deliberations, Israel Hayom confirmed from multiple involved sources. Surprisingly, American pressure for advancing such initiatives exceeds Israeli momentum, following senior evangelical figures expressing determination to pursue it.

Northern arrangements

Trump and his team prioritize advancing two initiatives during Netanyahu meetings: civilian discussions with Lebanon's government and security arrangement negotiations with Syria's al-Sharaa administration. The administration perceives opportunities for launching positive developments potentially transforming the entire region. A regional diplomat noted that Syrian disagreements permit bridging while Lebanon presents abundant mutual interests forming foundations for eventual agreements.

Netanyahu himself responded to Israel Hayom inquiries this week that Israel envisions sovereign, stable Lebanon. He simultaneously emphasized addressing Hezbollah operatives directed from Iran.

Militarily, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has achieved merely partial success exposing Hezbollah's southern bunkers and arsenals, with Washington meetings addressing operational approaches following expired deadlines for Hezbollah's southern disarmament, minimally.

Syria introduces an additional dialogue partner: Turkey, al-Sharaa's benefactor, pursuing comprehensive protectorate zones while constraining Israeli aerial and terrestrial operations inside Syrian territory. Israel requires this airspace critically for Iranian approaches, with Turks reportedly deploying radar batteries into Syrian territory capable of detecting Israeli Air Force movements, according to unconfirmed accounts.

Iran dominates discussions both specifically regarding reconstituted missile capabilities and broadly concerning Israeli demands for fundamental Iranian problem resolution. Israeli delegations will present evidence documenting Iranian involvement stoking regional terror organizations and independently initiating terror operations.

The objective demands recognition that addressing Iran requires comprehensive treatment, otherwise regional conflicts persist or cyclical confrontations recur monthly. Assessments suggest minimal agreement on intensified, severe sanctions regimes surpassing current measures, systems producing additional economic weakening of Iran's collapsing economy.

Two additional subjects emerge. First, the MOU (Memorandum of Understanding), the bilateral security understanding expiring 2027, requiring foundational preliminary negotiations currently. Concurrently, bilateral trade relations, and technology and economic matters surface, spanning tariff questions through elite technology research collaborations.

The agenda's breadth will probably necessitate subsequent meetings between both leaders, with alternatives including delegating certain matters to ministerial and professional echelons.

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Israel Hayom has learned that under the American plan, which Israel is aligning itself with, the meeting will address details of negotiations on the second phase of the deal. At the center of these talks are the disarmament of Hamas and the establishment of alternative governing bodies in Gaza. These include an overseeing body, the "Peace Council," to be headed by Trump, and a civilian governing authority largely composed of Palestinian officials from Gaza.

On Sunday, an Israeli delegation headed by Gal Hirsch, the government's coordinator for hostages and missing persons, traveled to Cairo along with representatives of the Shin Bet security agency and the Mossad. Their goal was to accelerate efforts to locate the body of the last remaining hostage, Ran Gvili. Israel insists it will not move forward to the second phase of the deal until Gvili is returned, and security officials are convinced that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad possess information on his burial site.

The Turkish issue

During meetings in Cairo, the parties discussed intensifying the search in hopes of finding Gvili before Netanyahu departs for the US. Members of the Gvili family are expected to join the trip. Trump is known to have a warm attitude toward the families of hostages, making their presence at the summit both important and symbolic.

According to diplomatic sources, the joint statement concluding the meeting is expected to include, alongside the Iranian issue, an announcement on progress toward the second phase and the establishment of international institutions for Gaza's rehabilitation, as part of the path toward ending the war. The statement is also expected to meaningfully address the Gvili case, in remarks by both Netanyahu and Trump. The precise wording and any conditions tied to advancing practical steps on the ground have not yet been finalized.

One of the main difficulties in implementing the second phase lies in the failure to assemble a multinational force, due to countries' refusal to deploy troops as long as Hamas remains armed. As a result, most of the initial progress is expected to focus on the civilian track.

According to the sources, at the end of the meeting, or after several meetings, two bodies will be formally announced: the supervising Peace Council, made up of international figures and leaders, and a new civilian governing authority composed largely of Palestinians who previously served as officials in the Palestinian Authority. Israel Hayom has reported that lists of some of these former Palestinian Authority employees have been transferred to Israel for security vetting, to ensure they are not affiliated with Hamas.

This is where the Turkish issue comes into play. Turkey is pressing the US to include its troops in the multinational stabilization force, the International Stabilization Force, and to lift Israel's veto. All the sources contacted by Israel Hayom deny that Israel has agreed to remove its veto. However, it is possible that Turkish military personnel specializing in engineering and mine clearance could be allowed to take part in units focused on those tasks.

The Americans are interested in launching the initiative through an international conference, likely to be held in the US in January, with the participation of the president, Middle Eastern leaders and partner countries. Following that, Israel, the mediators and Hamas are expected to begin discussions on the second phase, which would include the disarmament of Hamas, the transfer of governing authority and a redeployment of the Israel Defense Forces to a new defensive line.

Israel insists that there will be no withdrawal as long as Hamas and other terrorist organizations have not been disarmed and no longer pose a threat. In practice, this means that discussions on transferring civilian control will initially apply only to areas under IDF control, as well as pockets in northern and southern Gaza controlled by clans opposed to Hamas.

The meeting on Monday

Regarding Iran, Israel is expected to present Trump, during their meeting in Florida, with accumulated intelligence and assessments regarding the pace of Iran's military rehabilitation. One of Israel's goals is to secure US recognition that as long as the current regime remains in power, Iran will continue to operate terrorist organizations across the region, fuel conflicts and block what Washington views as the "mega-deal," the broad American plan for the Middle East.

Netanyahu and Trump are expected to discuss the need to confront Iran, with the ultimate objective of significantly weakening Iranian influence in the region and removing the nuclear and missile threats. Israel Hayom reported Sunday that former minister Ron Dermer assisted in preparations for the meeting, particularly on the Iranian issue. Dermer previously oversaw the Iran portfolio and was an architect of the cooperation with the US that led to American support for Israel during the war and its participation in the strike on the Fordow nuclear facility.

Issues related to Lebanon and Syria will also be on the agenda. On Lebanon, the sides are expected to discuss how to proceed with the disarmament of Hezbollah, the terrorist organization, and with civilian negotiations between Israel and the Lebanese government. On Syria, Trump is expected to seek a renewal of security talks with Israel, aimed at reaching an arrangement that would prevent military clashes and meet Israel's security needs.

The Israeli delegation is expected to include acting National Security Council head Gil Reich, who has recently grown closer to Netanyahu; political adviser Ophir Falk; military secretary Maj. Gen. Roman Gofman; and Israel's ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter. Transportation Minister Miri Regev is also expected to join the trip.

The first meeting between Trump and Netanyahu is scheduled for Monday, December 29, followed by a meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Given the wide range of issues, an additional meeting between Trump and Netanyahu is expected on Tuesday or Wednesday.

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During the visit, an additional meeting between the two leaders is also possible, as previously revealed by Israel Hayom. Netanyahu is also scheduled to meet with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as well as with evangelical figures, public officials and representatives of Jewish communities.

Key issues on the agenda

The central topics to be discussed by the two leaders are the front against Iran and the implementation of Phase Two of the American president's 20-point plan for the Gaza Strip.

Unlike Netanyahu's previous visits, which took place at the White House in Washington, this time he is expected to meet Trump at the president's private residence, the Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, where Trump is staying for the holiday period. The prime minister is not expected to stay at Mar-a-Lago itself but rather at a hotel in Palm Beach.

Earlier on Wednesday, the Prime Minister's Office announced that Gal Hirsch, the government's coordinator for captives and missing persons, had departed for Cairo, where he met with senior officials and representatives of the mediating parties in an effort to secure the return of the body of fallen captive Sgt. First Class Ran Gvili. The statement said that representatives of the Israel Defense Forces, the Shin Bet security agency and the Mossad also took part in the delegation.

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The US and Israel are closely monitoring Iran's efforts to rehabilitate its ballistic missile systems, air defense capabilities and nuclear program. There is close coordination and intelligence sharing between the two countries, including broad agreement on the need to thwart Tehran's attempts at rebuilding these capabilities. During the meeting in Florida, Israel is expected to present the intelligence dossier it has compiled, along with assessments of the pace of Iran's recovery.

From Israel's perspective, one of the key goals of the meeting is to secure US recognition that as long as the current regime remains in power in Iran, it will continue to operate terrorist organizations throughout the region, fuel conflicts and undermine Washington's broader Middle East vision, known as the "mega deal."

Israel Hayom has learned that former minister Ron Dermer assisted in preparations for the meeting, particularly on the Iranian issue. Dermer previously oversaw the Iran portfolio and was a central architect of cooperation with the US that culminated in American backing for Israel during the war and US participation in the strike on the Fordow nuclear facility.

The Israeli delegation is expected to include Gil Reich, acting head of the National Security Council, who has recently grown very close to Netanyahu; Ofir Falk, the prime minister's foreign policy adviser; Maj. Gen. Roman Gofman, the prime minister's military secretary; and Israel's ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter.

A second major topic on the agenda is Gaza and the transition to the next Phase. The Americans have been unable to assemble a multinational force due to countries' refusal to deploy troops while Hamas remains armed. As a result, Washington is turning its attention to the civilian track. The expectation is that following the meeting or meetings, an announcement will be made on the launch of a reconstruction process through the establishment of a new governing civilian body, largely composed of Palestinians who previously worked for the Palestinian Authority. Israel Hayom has reported that lists of some of the candidates expected to assume civilian authority have been transferred to Israel for security vetting, to ensure they are not affiliated with Hamas.

Meanwhile, US officials were angered by Defense Minister Israel Katz's statement about establishing Nahal outposts in the Gaza Strip. A stern message was conveyed to Israel, and Katz subsequently walked back the comment. An American official sent a message immediately after the remark was published, writing simply: "WTF?"

According to the official, Israel must adhere to every detail of the Trump plan to which it agreed, in order to preserve prospects for political progress in the region and, above all, to maintain trust between Jerusalem and Washington. An Israeli source added that what he described as Katz's "slip of the tongue," made in the midst of preparations for Netanyahu's visit to the US, was extremely problematic. Israel, he said, made clear to the Americans that the defense minister had corrected his remarks and that Israel remains committed to the Trump plan.

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The dossier to be presented to Trump and his team is aimed at forging close Israeli-US coordination to address what Jerusalem views as the root of the Iranian problem. Israeli officials believe the US president recognizes Iran as the head of the terrorism octopus in the Middle East, the aggressive force driving regional instability and the main obstacle to advancing a comprehensive regional agreement, Trump's envisioned mega-deal. Even so, Trump has so far refrained from decisive action against the regime, and the meeting with Netanyahu is intended to establish clear milestones for handling Iran.

This time, Prime Minister Netanyahu will travel without Ron Dermer, the former minister who served for years as his closest confidant in dealings with the US administration. His absence is expected to be felt keenly on this trip. Filling the role will be Israel's ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter. Leiter is well regarded at the White House but does not yet enjoy the same level of deep personal connections as his predecessor. On the other hand, Dermer also carried baggage with parts of the administration, while Leiter arrives with a clean slate.

The Iranian octopus

About a month ago, Israel Hayom reported intelligence indicating that Iran, through Hezbollah, Hamas and their command centers in Turkey, has been advancing terrorist attacks in Europe and Latin America. One such plot, an attempted assassination of Israel's ambassador to Mexico, Einat Kranz-Neiger, was thwarted by local authorities after intelligence provided by Israel.

The updated Israeli assessment holds that without toppling the regime in Tehran, Israel is doomed to many more years of recurring wars, at varying intensities, against Iran's proxies, including Hezbollah, Palestinian terrorist organizations and the Houthis, and potentially against Iran itself.

The dilemma is whether to embark on a dramatic move against the regime, a step that could trigger military escalation in which Israel's air and technological superiority is expected to prevail, but at the cost of further days of paralysis for the country and its economy. On the other hand, there is a desire to bring down once and for all the Islamist terror regime that is the primary source of chaos, terrorism and wars against Israel and across the region. The collapse of the regime would greatly ease the disarmament of Hezbollah and the dismantling of its political power in Lebanon, leave Hamas and Islamic Jihad without financial backing, and likely also lead to the downfall of the Houthi regime in Yemen.

The 12-day war last June exposed the weakness and vulnerability of the radical regime in Tehran and its inability to protect its facilities and senior officials. At the same time, it created a rare opportunity to move toward toppling the dictatorship. That opportunity was not seized, in part due to the lack of American cooperation on the issue, even though the US carried out a limited strike on the Fordow nuclear facility. According to one senior security official, another key point in persuading the Americans will be Iran's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war. Removing Iran from that equation would reduce the Russian threat to Europe's security.

Beyond the military option

How could this be done? One possible course is military action, designed to deliver another severe blow to the regime, but at a significant cost to Israel. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir hinted this week that Israel may need to act against Iran again. At a ceremony marking the change of head of the Planning Directorate, Zamir said: "At the center of the IDF's threats stands the campaign against Iran. The campaign against Iran concluded with significant achievements. Our enemies once again felt the reach of the IDF's long arm, which will continue to strike wherever required, on near and distant fronts." Iran's foreign minister responded that Iran is well prepared for an Israeli attack.

A military move will likely be necessary in any case, but Israel's approach holds that it should be leveraged alongside aggressive action on other fronts.

Iran's economic situation is deteriorating by the day. The local currency, the rial, is hitting record lows; poverty is deepening; many educated Iranians are leaving the country; electricity is available only for a few hours a day; and fuel at gas stations is rationed. The water crisis is also worsening, with reservoirs closing and tap water in large parts of the country reduced to a trickle. At the same time, internal unrest is growing, even as the regime seeks to suppress it through force and brutality, imposing internet restrictions to curb its spread.

The US and Western countries could impose far harsher sanctions than those currently in place, including a complete shutdown of oil exports and a sweeping embargo on dual-use goods that aid missile development and the weapons industry. Such economic pressure is intended, first and foremost, to force concessions from the regime, both on the nuclear program and on ballistic missiles and the export of terrorism. These are demands Washington has emphasized mainly over the past year, and which Tehran has so far rejected.

Within the regime itself, voices are already being heard, including from President Masoud Pezeshkian, warning of economic and social collapse, driven in part by severe infrastructure failures in water and energy, and urging compromise. For now, these voices are being drowned out by the hardline stance of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Stronger economic pressure could change his calculus.

Actively toppling the regime would also require assisting internal Iranian opposition forces, in order to generate domestic pressure and destabilization. Such steps would at the very least force the regime to turn its attention inward, and at a more advanced stage, with external support, could lead to its actual overthrow.

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Two weeks ago, a first meeting took place between Israeli and Lebanese representatives, laying the groundwork for ongoing talks concerning both preventing Hezbollah's re-armament and issues related to the border line and IDF activity in Lebanese territory. A follow-up meeting was already scheduled, and at the Netanyahu-Barrack meeting they agreed on a framework for talks and topics to be discussed between the sides, including coordination on the return of residents from southern Lebanon to their homes, specifically those not from pro-Hezbollah villages.

Israel's active defense rights

According to the sources, the meeting reinforced coordination between Israel and the US on Syria and Lebanon issues. They say there is a consensus that Israel has the right to defend itself actively, meaning to strike terrorist organizations and terrorists wherever they pose a real threat. On the Lebanese front, discussion focused on tightening coordination with the Lebanese army to enable it to fulfill its mission of uncovering Hezbollah's weapons and ammunition stockpiles in the country's south. Barrack was presented with data and intelligence showing that the Lebanese are not sufficiently determined in this mission and that the IDF, therefore, needs to conduct strikes on sites where the Lebanese army cannot or does not want to operate.

Warning about al-Sharaa forces

In the Syrian sector, Israel presented intelligence showing that the forces of Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa cannot be trusted. One member of these security forces carried out an attack in which two soldiers and an American civilian were killed. The Damascus administration was quick to declare that this was a terrorist from ISIS, and Washington adopted this version. Israel warns that this is not a lone terrorist and that al-Sharaa's forces are responsible for massacres of minorities, including Druze and Alawites.

The American representatives requested that Israeli activity in Syria be coordinated and that Israel allow government forces to impose order. This week, in one of the Syrian villages not far from the Israeli border, a patrol of Syrian forces was filmed passing by an IDF checkpoint in what appears to be a coordinated passage between the sides.

Turkey's regional involvement

Another topic raised was Turkey's involvement across all sectors. The meeting clarified that Israel's firm opposition to Turkish forces entering the Gaza Strip remains in place. Regarding Syria, Israel seeks to preserve aerial freedom of operation in the country, and the Americans propose strengthening coordination in this context through CENTCOM headquarters to avoid clashes with the Turks. The meeting was attended by, among others, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar, acting National Security Advisor Gil Reich, Military Secretary Brig. Gen. Roman Gofman, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, and Israeli Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter.

Saudi normalization disappointment

Meanwhile, an American source says that Washington's disappointment over the lack of progress toward normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia and the latter's joining the Abraham Accords is directed at both sides. He confirmed our Israel Hayom report that the Saudis, therefore, did not receive immediate signing of the F-35 aircraft deal, nor their request regarding the nuclear facility. He added that Israel's actions in Judea and Samaria (establishing new settlements) and reports of Jewish violence against Arabs are among the factors in the failure to achieve rapprochement with Saudi Arabia.

President Trump is disappointed, the source says, but he is not giving up, as this move (bringing Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords) is a key move for a comprehensive Middle East solution. The source confirmed that the White House and State Department conveyed messages of dissatisfaction about the assassination of senior Hamas figure Raad Saad, but described as "exaggerated" the publications on this matter. "Israel is entitled to defend itself and strike terrorists, but in the background, there is a ceasefire and moves to end the war, and care must be taken not to torpedo that. Trump's plan returned all the living hostages and almost all the deceased, Israel needs to give it a chance to be completed," the source said.

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At least several people were killed in the shooting at Bondi Beach in Sydney, Australia, including a Chabad emissary. According to reports by local media, two terrorists were arrested by local police following the attack.

Video: Member of the public overpowers terrorist / Credit: Social media

"Israeli targets worldwide"

An Israeli intelligence source told Israel Hayom that "in recent months there has been a marked increase in activity by Iran and its proxies, the terrorist organizations Hezbollah and Hamas, aimed at carrying out attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide."

Video: The site of the shooting in Bondi Beach / Credit: Social media

The source added that "this included Australia, where, following specific intelligence warnings, the government took partial measures against the Iranian Embassy, including the expulsion of the ambassador. There is no doubt that the direction and infrastructure for the attack originated in Tehran."

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Arab and Western diplomatic sources indicate these conditions encompass shuttering all UN refugee agencies, chiefly UNRWA (the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian refugees), across Palestinian Authority territories with particular emphasis on Gaza, while transferring complete responsibility for civilian needs to the Palestinian Authority itself. Israel further insists on transforming "refugee camps" into standard neighborhoods or towns, and abolishing refugee designation throughout Palestinian Authority areas.

Reports from i24NEWS revealed that Israel has positioned the termination of UN refugee agency operations as a prerequisite for IDF withdrawal from Jenin and Tulkarem camps, where forces have maintained presence for months. Diplomatic sources confirm this demand surfaced in Israeli-American discussions and conversations with European intermediaries including Tony Blair and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz during Monday's meeting.

Israel has simultaneously advanced its established requirements: complete Hamas disarmament, comprehensive Israeli security authority with unrestricted military operations even in Palestinian Authority-controlled zones, total demilitarization of Palestinian territories excepting lightly-armed police forces, meaningful curriculum overhauls in Palestinian Authority educational institutions from kindergarten through university eliminating antisemitic and anti-Israel materials, population-wide de-radicalization initiatives, genuine Palestinian Authority security operations against terror organizations, and additional measures. Israel views these as essential preconditions for accepting a process culminating in Palestinian statehood, as mandated by the Trump plan (the framework for Gaza's future governance and normalization) Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu endorsed.

During Monday's press conference following his session with Chancellor Merz, Netanyahu declared, "We believe pathways exist for advancing broader Arab peace and establishing workable peace with our Palestinian neighbors, but we refuse to create a state dedicated to our annihilation directly next to us. The sole principle we'll invariably maintain is Israeli sovereign security authority. We sidestepped the Palestinian Authority because it lacks peace commitment. Everyone claims they'll transform – I'm skeptical. They must cease indoctrinating their children in murdering Israelis and compensating terrorists."

Negotiations toward Phase 2

Diplomatic contacts have persisted toward an American announcement on commencing Phase 2 negotiations of the Trump plan (the framework for Gaza's future governance and normalization). The principal obstacle remains the unreturned body of the final fallen captive, Staff Sgt. Ran Gvili, a Yasam (Israel Police Special Patrol Unit) combatant killed battling Hamas terrorists on October 7 after neutralizing dozens.

Shin Bet Director David Zini traveled to Cairo last week, conferring with Egyptian counterparts on intelligence approximately pinpointing Gvili's location. Subsequently, Monday witnessed renewed searches in Gaza's Zeitoun neighborhood, conducted with Red Cross and Hamas representatives present.

Washington has pushed to announce Phase 2's commencement regardless of Gvili's recovery. Gvili's family petitioned Prime Minister Netanyahu against any advancement until Gvili's return. Family members report Netanyahu consented.

The Trump plan's Phase 2 encompasses Hamas's weapons dismantlement and governance transfer to an international civilian entity, paired with further Israeli withdrawal per security protocols. Hamas leadership has consistently proclaimed the organization won't relinquish arms, with internal disagreement on this matter, though even moderates reject complete weapons surrender.

Arab sources maintain that characterizing the situation as absent any transfer preparation progress misrepresents reality, asserting the incoming weeks will unveil the new governing apparatus designated for Strip authority, comprising an internationally-participated governing council alongside a bureaucratic administrative structure predominantly consisting of Palestinian Gaza residents, including former Palestinian Authority functionaries preceding Hamas's takeover.

Qatar seeks guarantees

Monday witnessed a noteworthy Washington meeting assembling Mossad Director David Barnea, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and a high-ranking Qatari delegate. This inaugural session in the reconciliation process represented the Netanyahu-Trump agreement's implementation. The initiative commenced with Netanyahu's White House call to Qatar's Prime Minister al-Thani during Netanyahu's late September Trump meeting.

The session established that within this US-mediated framework, monthly consultations will address contentious matters. Current agenda items encompass Qatar's Hamas member hosting, Qatari "mediation" that Israel contends yielded disappointing outcomes, and Qatar's insistence on Israeli pledges against territorial attacks.

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