Recent comments by US President Donald Trump have raised questions about who initiated next week's meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, what it is meant to achieve and why it is happening now. At the same time, consistent briefings in Israel suggest Netanyahu intends to convince Trump that the conditions are ripe for another military action against Iran.
But, we also know Operation Rising Lion last June achieved its objective first and foremost because it took Iran completely by surprise. To that end, a range of deceptive narratives were spread, confusing the Israeli and American public, and certainly Iran's leaders and senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials.
So what are we supposed to make of all this?
In the topsy-turvy reality we are living in, does it mean Israel is heading toward a coordinated strike on Iran, with or without the US? Are all these reports designed to distract everyone to enable a surprise scenario in Lebanon or Gaza? Or are they meant to divert attention from a US intention to push Israel into the next phase in Gaza, contrary to the prime minister's intent?
Or, perhaps, the meeting is meant to serve the domestic political needs of both leaders, who could use a public display of closeness amid the internal and external storms bearing down on Israel and the US?
These questions are fascinating, but it is important to consider the possibility that all this chatter is indeed meant to distract attention, but from something else entirely: the Netanyahu government's growing difficulty in coordinating policy with the Trump administration on fundamental issues.
The deep strategic coordination between Israel and the US should, in recent months, have matured into the launch of negotiations to formulate a new decade long Memorandum of Understanding, known as an MOU. The current MOU is set to expire in about two years, and judging by the previous round, the process of shaping a new one should already have begun.
The previous MOU, signed in 2016, codified the web of strategic cooperation between Israel and the US. It also included an American funding package for the purchase of US-made weaponry from the American defense industry totaling about $3.3 billion a year, plus an additional $500 million package for Israel's procurement of missile interceptors.
Netanyahu knows all of this well. He was prime minister then, too, and the negotiations on Israel's behalf were led by my colleague Professor Yaakov Nagel, who at the time served as acting head of the National Security Council.
Netanyahu is delaying the launch of the process, possibly because he fears Trump is not eager to approve a new MOU. On the other hand, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said publicly this week that while it is a presidential decision over which he has little influence as ambassador, he believes conditions will ripen for signing another MOU.
In a normal situation, one would add to this the fact that the previous US president signed a presidential statement given to Israel's government during his visit in the summer of 2022, in which the US committed to the continuity of MOUs with Israel even after the current one ends. True, this was during Prime Minister Yair Lapid's tenure and under US President Joe Biden, but today, unfortunately, continuity of decision-making between governments and administrations does not appear to carry much weight.
In Washington, there are currently winds calling for cuts to US foreign aid. Unfortunately, voices are also multiplying among extremists on both the right and the left calling for an end to all US backing for Israel. Precisely because of this, it should be the perfect moment for an experienced prime minister like Netanyahu to put this issue at the center of his meeting with Trump. He should show that now is the time to make America's commitment visible for all to see, not only to Israel's security but to the value of strategic cooperation between the two countries.
This is the moment to showcase Israel's significant contribution to US national security: through procurement of US weapons systems; operating them in a real operational environment that encourages their improvement; extensive and deep intelligence cooperation that protects US forces in our region; and the opportunity to shape the Middle East in a positive direction through a partnership in which Israel bears most of the security burden.
At the same time, such an MOU would entrench Israel's standing in the region as the US' leading ally, and at the heart of a pragmatic alliance in the spirit of the Abraham Accords, cooperating against shared enemies such as Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood.
This is an issue of fundamental importance to Israel's national security. All that remains is to hope that Netanyahu addresses it as well in his meeting with Trump.
