Israel Shamay/Makor Rishon – www.israelhayom.com

'Works like a machine': The man who led Mossad to unprecedented success

miriw — Wed, 08 Oct 2025 06:00:26 +0000

In spy movies, intelligence operatives are typically characterized by a distinctive appearance: a tilted hat, long raincoat, worn clothes, and day-old stubble. But in real life, it's commonly said that a good intelligence officer is precisely one who can blend into a crowd and appear like an ordinary person, someone whose face doesn't get etched in memory.

For years, the Israeli public was unaware of David Barnea's name, and even less so his face. The crossroads of his life allowed him to choose other paths; a small turn, and he would have remained in the world of finance and capital markets. Perhaps it was precisely that "ordinary" appearance that helped him stay under the radar. But at a certain point, the man who began his career as an investment advisor rolled into a completely different track – a track that led him to head one of the world's strongest and most sophisticated intelligence organizations. This image justified itself in the past year when Mossad, under Barnea's leadership, achieved astounding accomplishments that changed the Middle East.

Naturally, Barnea doesn't give interviews and doesn't even brief journalists. Mossad doesn't even have an official spokesperson. Still, uncharacteristically for sitting Mossad chiefs, he can occasionally be heard giving speeches. Through dozens of conversations with associates, journalists, and colleagues, we tried to trace his character.

David Barnea was born in Ashkelon in March 1965 to a religiously observant family. His paternal grandfather, Rabbi Yehuda Brenner, left Germany in 1933 following the rise of the Nazis, together with his wife Bina and their son Yosef, David's father. Yosef Brenner studied at a yeshiva in Bnei Brak and, at the age of 16, enlisted in the Palmach, also participating in the War of Independence. He later continued serving in the IDF and reached the rank of brigadier general in the air force, a role in which he was responsible for military procurement from the US. His wife Naomi was an educator and served as a school principal.

In David's early childhood, the Barnea family moved to Rishon LeZion, and he was sent to the "Ein HaKore" school. Already in his youth, he aspired to be a commander, and to that end, he attended the military boarding school for command in Tel Aviv. Those years were the golden age of military boarding schools, which produced a large number of senior officials in the security establishment. In Barnea's class also studied Zohar Dvir, later deputy chief of police; Deputy Commissioner (ret.) Kourosh Barnor; Brig. Gen. (res.) Ariel Karo, who served as chief intelligence officer, and five more boys who later reached the rank of major general or brigadier general. In the class above him studied Maj. Gen. (res.) Gal Hirsch, and in the class below him Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, with whom he remains friends to this day.

His classmates describe a sociable and pleasant boy with extensive knowledge that helped him succeed in his studies. Yair Raman, who studied with Barnea both in elementary school and in the military boarding school, remembers him as "a person head and shoulders above others who always stood out and excelled, a beloved friend and excellent athlete."

Military service and early career

In 1983, Barnea enlisted in the Paratroopers Brigade, and in April 1984, joined the chief of staff's reconnaissance unit. His team commander for three years was Elad Magal, brother of presenter Yinon Magal. "David stood out as a principled guy, someone pleasant to work with, and also an excellent soldier in all parameters that make a person a good commando fighter: weapons proficiency, demolition, first aid, navigation," Magal describes. "In the operational company, he was responsible for a supremely important area and performed this role excellently. He signed on for an additional year to continue filling this role in the next cycle as well. He's a modest guy, the style of 'still waters run deep.' A person who doesn't chase honor and doesn't try to impress, speaks pleasantly and gives others space to express themselves. An organized and cool-headed type, even when needing to function under pressure."

Magal says Barnea maintained contact with him and team members throughout the years, and even in recent years he makes sure to come with his family to celebrations and gatherings of unit alumni.

An additional detail Magal notes is Barnea's love of gardening. "When I would visit him at home over the years, I always saw a well-maintained garden. Despite having very busy periods, he found time to invest in garden care. In general, he's a person who does everything well," Magal concludes.

After his military discharge, Barnea went to the US and completed bachelor's and master's degrees in business administration. Upon his return to Israel, he worked as a senior manager at an investment bank and later at Clal company. Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin's assassination in November 1995 deeply affected him, and following it, he decided to leave the banking world and move to a position with national significance. With the help of an acquaintance, he found his way to Mossad.

Barnea is married with four children, and the family lives in a community in the Sharon region. Several of his acquaintances described him as a family man despite the difficulties and limitations the position creates. Zohar Barnea, the Mossad chief's younger brother, is a Breslov Hasid. "David is a person of many virtues, with exceptional determination and understanding. We don't understand heavenly calculations, but from several cases known to me, and he prefers I not elaborate, even great rabbis have assured me that his merits are many," Zohar told me. The two maintain good contact, and Zohar has even visited his brother in his office at the organization's headquarters.

Without noise and fanfare

"David Barnea is a good execution man," diagnoses Yossi Melman, the veteran intelligence and security affairs analyst and author of ten books on these subjects. "He doesn't have the sparks of Yossi Cohen, the bastard cunning of Meir Dagan, or the seriousness and depth of Tamir Pardo. If I had to define him briefly, I'd say he's a good field man, a good operator, and very target-focused. A determined person who knows how to ignore background noise and overcome side mines he sometimes encounters. They loved him in the organization, and he quickly began advancing."

Barnea grew up in the Tzomet division, the unit responsible for operating Mossad agents worldwide. Most of his career he served as a case officer, responsible for recruiting and managing agents. These are foreign civilians who are recruited and operated by Mossad, and in some cases serve as "turned agents" – those who don't know for which organization they're working. In Tzomet, Barnea served under the command of Yossi Cohen. In 2003, the two even won Israel's Security Prize for an operation that remains classified to this day. Barnea's path to the top was similar to Cohen's, alongside deep character differences between them.

Former Mossad senior David Meidan knew Barnea when his Mossad career was still in its infancy. Meidan served as head of the Tevel division, responsible for maintaining intelligence and diplomatic relations on behalf of the organization. "Already then they saw that David is someone who comes to work without noise and fanfare. Speaks little, is precise in details, industrious, diligent, very concentrated and focused. His quietness radiates reliability," Meidan describes. "He's a principled person, a family man. At his core, he's shy, modest in his lifestyle, someone who would distance himself from confrontations, gossip, and purposeless conversations. His appearance might be deceiving," Meidan adds. "There's stubbornness in him, and if necessary, he knows how to make difficult personal decisions."

After a period serving as a case officer abroad, Barnea was appointed head of a station in Europe. From there, he moved to serve as deputy head of the Neviot unit, responsible for gathering intelligence through electronic means and handling surveillance, penetrations, observations, and the placement of listening devices, among other tasks. After about two and a half years in the position, in 2013, Barnea returned to the Tzomet division, this time as head of the unit. He dedicated most of his time in this role to dealing with the Iranian threat. As head of Tzomet, he was involved in planning and executing the theft of Iran's nuclear archive in 2018, and during his tenure, the organization won four Israel Security Prizes as well as commendations.

In 2019, his longtime commander, Yossi Cohen, appointed him as his deputy. In this role, Barnea was responsible for overseeing the division of special operations, which included planning assassinations. When Cohen was required to recommend candidates to replace him, he presented the names of Barnea, then his deputy, alongside that of his previous deputy, Ehud Lavi. Lavi was then on sabbatical, and some believe this decision cost him the position. In December 2020, Netanyahu announced David Barnea as the next Mossad chief.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the opening event of a bipartisan delegation of American legislators to Israel, at the Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem, 15 September 2025 (Photo: EPA/Debbie Hill) EPA

Y., a former senior Mossad official who worked under Barnea for a long period, says: "He has an unusual work ethic; he's capable of dealing with long hours on a large number of tasks simultaneously. He's like a machine."

Former Mossad chief Efraim Halevy, who today serves as president of the organization's retirees association, remembers Barnea's conduct favorably from various periods. "In 2000, when I was Mossad chief, we had brain drain," Halevy recounts. "The head of one of our European stations also decided to leave suddenly. His departure created a major crisis at the station. I flew there to resolve the crisis and spent many hours with our people, including David. He took responsibility and helped calm the situation, and together we weathered the crisis."

"Two years ago, ahead of marking fifty years since the Yom Kippur War, David invited me and additional figures who worked at Mossad in the past and participated in the war to a ceremony where he thanked us for our contribution and awarded us an honored certificate. We didn't expect such a thing, and I appreciated the fact that it was important to him to express gratitude to people who contributed. He's very humane," Halevy concludes.

Alongside these praises, some paint a slightly different picture. M., a former senior Mossad official, says about Barnea: "David is less daring compared to previous Mossad chiefs; he's a rather boring guy, doesn't have many friends. He was intelligent, energetic, patriotic, and good at what he did, but there were better ones than him."

Intelligence in a transparent world

Alongside the IDF, Mossad is perhaps the brand most identified worldwide with Israel, more than cyber, cherry tomatoes, or Gal Gadot. The daring operations, sophistication, creativity, and coolness have made Mossad one of the most esteemed and famous intelligence agencies in the world, perhaps one of the most threatening. Mossad is exceptional not only in its quality but also in its size. According to global estimates, the organization directly employs over 7,000 employees, making it the largest intelligence body outside the US, China, and Russia, roughly twice the size of the British intelligence agency MI6. "Mossad has countless position holders," notes Melman. "They once even advertised that they were looking for a tailor."

On June 1, 2021, Barnea began serving in his position as Mossad chief amid an escalation in the ongoing confrontation with Iran. Six months earlier, in November 2020, the head of Iran's nuclear program, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was eliminated in an assassination near Tehran. In April 2021, a cyber attack was carried out at the Natanz nuclear facility. Israel didn't take responsibility in either case, but Iran pointed the finger at it. On June 19, 2021, just two and a half weeks after Barnea took command, the hardliner Ebrahim Raisi was elected president of Iran, an appointment that raised additional concerns in Jerusalem.

According to one version presented in the book "Mossad in Tehran" by Yonah Jeremy Bob and Ilan Evyatar, Naftali Bennett, as prime minister, pushed Mossad and Barnea to show greater creativity and adopt a more aggressive approach toward Iran. According to an opposite version, "not only is Barnea endowed with a sufficiently developed aggressive instinct, but he was actually the one who pressured Bennett to show greater boldness."

Either way, in Barnea's first months in office, Mossad continued the offensive line from the end of Yossi Cohen's period. In July 2021, a cyber attack was carried out against Iran's transportation system, and in October, electricity was shut down at all 4,300 gas stations in the Islamic Republic. Again, Israel didn't take responsibility for the attacks. According to the authors of "Mossad in Tehran," "the match between Bennett and Barnea gave birth to one of the most intensive periods ever of Israeli operations against Iran, aimed at reshaping the strategic status of the nuclear program."

New operating methods

The elimination of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in January 2010 on Dubai soil, in an operation attributed to Israel, became an event that dramatically influenced the entire intelligence world. The assassination of the Hamas senior while staying at a hotel proceeded smoothly, and authorities caught no member of the elimination team, but it presented intelligence personnel with a challenging new reality: the proliferation of cameras everywhere, combined with digital databases, made the world transparent.

Mossad chief Meir Dagan, at the time, understood that a way needed to be found to carry out operations abroad and obtain information while minimizing risk to Israeli agents. Already during his tenure, the organization began relying more on operations by foreign agents. Incidentally, contrary to widespread claims globally, Mossad maintains a clear and rigid line of avoiding using Jews in the diaspora to avoid endangering them.

Toward the end of the previous decade, the challenge multiplied dozens of times with the widespread adoption of biometric identification technology at airports worldwide, and subsequently in the broader public sphere. This technology enables identifying a person anywhere he is located, even within a crowd. Countries even share this information among themselves, so that details of a person who landed in Paris are available to officials in Brussels. In such a world, sending an Israeli fighter on an operation outside the country's borders became an almost impossible mission.

Former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen significantly expanded the line Dagan began in relying on foreign agents, including operations that went beyond obtaining information. An additional avenue was expanding the use of innovative technological solutions that enabled achieving remotely what previously required operations beyond lines. The move that began with Dagan and expanded under Cohen reached its peak under Barnea.

Fear of abandonment

The achievements on the international arena were impressive, but underneath the surface, troubles were brewing from within. In January 2022, the commander of Mossad's Caesarea division and his deputy announced their retirement from the organization due to professional disagreements with Barnea. This was an earthquake within Mossad, as the Caesarea division is the flagship of special operations in the agency, which also includes the assassination unit Kidon. Together with the five seniors, several mid-level employees also left. The changes Barnea made in the methods of operating agents, and transferring a larger volume of Mossad activity to a kind of outsourcing, were perceived as a real reform. The departure of the prestigious division's people was attributed to this move.

Two months earlier, in November 2021, three additional senior Mossad officials announced their retirement – the head of the technology division, the head of the counterterrorism division, and the head of the Tzomet division. The reform might have had a part in the matter, but their departure was attributed specifically to an organizational and technical change Barnea made when he ordered the splitting of a certain Mossad division into three. According to D.'s assessment, a former Mossad source, this change creates difficulties for daily operations in those split divisions and harms internal cooperation and efficiency. However, even in his opinion, this isn't a dramatic change.

Y., the former senior Mossad official, suggests seeing things in proportion. "There wasn't a wave of departures," he determines. "There were those who weren't satisfied with David's decisions, people who were stuck in conventions. He knew what he wanted and where he wanted to take Mossad, and whoever decided to leave because of this – let them leave, it's not to David's detriment. At the time, it was still possible to argue whether he was right in the changes he brought, but today this has already proven itself. By the way, there were already groups of seniors who left under strong previous Mossad chiefs. The most extensive wave of departures I know was under one of the greatest among them, Meir Dagan."

M. sees things in a different light and believes the background to the departures was personal considerations on Barnea's part. "Many seniors left, division heads, including basically all the natural candidates for heading the organization," he says. "These are people David decided he didn't want, and in their place, he promoted much less capable elements. He brought back all sorts of weirdos from retirement, people who retired because they weren't suitable for promotion, and today fill central positions contrary to the opinion of very senior elements in the system. This isn't reform; this is a coup, a dictatorship."

According to M., additional seniors have recently left Mossad, including one person whom Barnea himself appointed.

Are you concerned about the Mossad's future?

"Certainly. The Office (as Mossad personnel refer to it) lost much of its diversity and became one-dimensional. The two that Barnea is expected to recommend as his replacements for heading the organization worry me greatly. These are people who would never have reached such positions under other Mossad chiefs. This is doubly concerning because Military Intelligence also failed to update its work plans. I know that Military Intelligence is aware of the issue, and a few months ago, there was a discussion there dealing with this."

Melman, for his part, refuses to get excited: "Always when dismantling a unit, there are people who aren't satisfied, and he, too, had those who weren't satisfied. This is the nature of a dynamic organization that must adapt to changing reality. New units were established and others were split to adapt them to changed circumstances."

Closing the circle

On September 7, 2023, exactly one month before Hamas's attack, Mossad published in an unprecedented manner a file of documents and investigations from the archive relating to the Yom Kippur War, in a book titled "Once When It Will Be Permitted to Tell..." At the launch event, Barnea said: "We must not underestimate the enemy and his capabilities. We feel the powerful intelligence capabilities, but we must not fall into conceptualization; the order of the hour is humility."

Unlike figures who led the IDF and Shin Bet during the massacre, who have since ended their tenure, Mossad and its leader aren't perceived by the public as bearing responsibility for October 7th. There's considerable justice in this, as the Gaza Strip wasn't under their responsibility but under the General Security Service. However, they're also not completely free of responsibility. Mossad also maintains a prestigious research division that didn't provide assessments regarding an expected attack and maintains cooperation with intelligence organizations in Arab countries, thus exposing itself to relevant materials. The organization's responsibility for the intelligence failure is also related to the fact that it operates against Hamas personnel abroad and missed the transfer of hundreds of millions of dollars from Iran to Hamas, as revealed in documents captured in the Strip.

However, Mossad's deepest involvement regarding Gaza was in the flow of funds from Qatar to Hamas, which continued until October 2023. Melman: "As long as Israel is a democratic state, the political echelon determines, but the security establishment has great influence on the decision-making process, and the Mossad chief has an important role in shaping government policy. The criticism of Barnea is that he didn't oppose, or at least didn't sufficiently voice his opinion, on certain issues, such as transferring funds from Qatar, setting national priorities, and vital intelligence requirements. Additionally, during the war, he also failed to express his opinion on the issue of hostages. Bottom line, Mossad has some responsibility for October 7th, but it's marginal."

The pager operation marked a moment of closing the circle for Barnea: under his leadership, Mossad delivered a crushing blow to a threatening entity that had been feared for years, and restored to Israel the deterrence and security-intelligence prestige lost on October 7th. "The pager operation is the most successful operation in the history of intelligence organizations worldwide," D. determines.

Ali Ibrahim, 37, who was wounded in an Israeli operation in Lebanon that detonated hundreds of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah, speaks during a gathering marking the one-year anniversary of the attack in Beirut, Lebanon, 17 September 2025 (Photo: EPA/Wael Hamzeh) EPA

The operation that began in the previous decade matured into action under Barnea. According to reports, the decision to time the attack came after suspicions arose within Hezbollah, and the organization began checking the devices. However, in an interview with the "Hayeda" podcast, A., presented as a former head of Mossad's intelligence division, claimed that Mossad in general and Barnea in particular pushed to act against Hezbollah, including exploding the pagers, regardless of these circumstances.

After the success of the pager operation, Barnea used Mossad's capabilities in complex coordination and multi-layered intelligence activation – human, electronic, and visual – to lead additional reality-changing moves, primarily the elimination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. As part of the operation, Mossad agents operated in the heart of Beirut to obtain the required intelligence and even planted devices that enabled the elimination of Nasrallah's secret bunker. The agency's part in the operation included components reflecting Barnea's management concept: broad vision, precise timing, and the ability to combine operations with symbolic value with those having strategic value. The ability to operate dozens of foreign agents within Iran's borders, alongside the use of innovative technology, also relied heavily on the changes Barnea made upon assuming his position. Naturally, elements of the Iran attack were laid during Cohen's period and even before, yet at the moment of truth, Barnea's professional concept proved itself.

"Before the changes David made, Mossad wouldn't have been able to carry out so many operations simultaneously," believes Y. "Mossad reached its peak glory. What we saw from Mossad after October 7th is a product of the structural changes he led. This is what enabled carrying out something like seven operations in Iran on the first night." According to reports, the agency operated over one hundred agents in Iran with optimal coordination.

"Mossad's heavy achievements in the war also came thanks to David's capabilities and personality; his functioning is most impressive," agrees Efraim Halevy. "David's success was expected for me; he's an excellent planner and excellent executor," joins David Meidan.

"David sharpened what his predecessors began, refined and developed it," says Melman. "Ultimately, he brought Mossad to this achievement, and we're talking about a most impressive operation that required determination, mission adherence, and worthy planning. Actually, the lion's share of Mossad activity in Iran was on the first night and in the days preceding it, because this required extensive preparations and everything was timed and precise. It's not simple to command an operation like Operation Rising Lion, but Barnea is very cool-headed in operational actions."

A point that came up in conversations I held with two different sources was the great importance Barnea assigns to public relations and receiving credit for the organization's achievements, including through speeches he occasionally gives. Some claimed that even publishing videos from Iran with Mossad's logo – an exceptional act compared to the standard operating method of intelligence bodies in general and Mossad in particular – was a PR action, though this can also be seen as a capability display meant to deter the enemy and damage its morale. After Operation Rising Lion, claims even arose that Mossad was trying to "steal credit from the IDF."

A domestically-built missile "Khaibar-buster," and banners showing portraits of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, center, and the late armed forces commanders, who were killed in Israeli strike in June, at Baharestan Square, in Tehran, Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025 (Photo: AP /Vahid Salemi) AP

"Mossad and the IDF worked in close cooperation in Operation Rising Lion. While there's always a bit of ego in the way, they work well together," says Melman. "The 'credit war' between the IDF and Mossad, as this matter is framed in some media outlets, wasn't really serious; it was inflated for rating considerations and desire to create interest."

M., however, refuses to be impressed by Barnea's overall functioning, even given the operational achievements. In his eyes, Barnea receives excessive credit for Mossad's achievements, as the infrastructure for these achievements didn't stem from his initiative. He defines the first two years of his tenure as "very bad." According to him, achievements in various arenas were accomplished despite the changes Barnea led in the organization.

Not a yes-man

The position of Mossad chief entails close collaboration with the prime minister and the political establishment. Barnea's relations with Netanyahu are considered good, unlike his colleagues heading other security bodies. "Unlike Ronen Bar and Herzi Halevi, Barnea was appointed by Netanyahu, and Netanyahu's view of people he didn't appoint himself is more suspicious," says Ariel Kahana, Israel Hayom's political analyst. "He understands the political game and is careful not to get between the political echelon's intentions. There's understanding between him and Netanyahu, and Barnea knows Netanyahu well, understanding what to do and what not to do when working with him. He praised Netanyahu publicly, for example, on the decisions he made in the pager operation and the Iran attack, and Netanyahu liked this. Unlike Ronen Bar, David Barnea isn't confrontational, and their relationship is completely different."

Some describe Barnea as a kind of yes-man to Netanyahu. Is this the case in your opinion?

"No, and the disagreement between them over the Qatar attack isn't the only example. Mossad is Netanyahu's baby, and not everything happening between them is perfect – I know it isn't – but overall the joint work is good and produces results, and Barnea does his work in a businesslike and proper manner."

Contrary to talk about a rift between the prime minister and Mossad chief around the Qatar attack that Barnea opposed, Kahana believes this incident actually shows how good relations are between the two: "Netanyahu allowed Mossad not to carry out its part in the attack and transferred it to Shin Bet. He didn't force Barnea to do it, despite being able to do so. Barnea opposed decisively, and Netanyahu went along with him. Whoever works with Qatar in its capacity as mediator is Mossad, and it might have been easier for Netanyahu to let Mossad relinquish its involvement in the attack and transfer its role to Shin Bet, so the Qataris would continue working with it. But this is just my speculation."

How much influence does Barnea have on decisions made in the cabinet?

"He has influence, especially in cases of disagreement within the system. He brings a more hawkish approach, certainly compared to Ronen Bar and Herzi Halevi. There were also junctions where Netanyahu leaned on his position to establish his opinion."

M. describes a different picture, where Barnea shows weakness toward the political echelon and doesn't know how to stand his ground. He also claims that "counterparts" (the code name in Mossad for international intelligence organizations it works with) aren't impressed by Barnea. In this context, Melman is actually impressed that Barnea managed to improve relations with the CIA, American intelligence agency, "despite work relations being good on a regular basis," he clarifies.

Government Secretary Yossi Fox, who by virtue of his position works directly with the Mossad chief, says: "David Barnea is the best Mossad chief Israel has ever had. Brave, creative, modest, doesn't belong to conceptualization, and understands the importance of trust and full coordination with the prime minister, especially in a period where he led strategic change in the Middle East." A political source I spoke with conveyed similar sentiments: "The Mossad chief is determined and offensive. In Operation 'Rising Lion,' we saw how his boldness and planning come to expression in the field."

In days when Mossad operates at an almost non-stop pace – from eliminating seniors in Iran, through thwarting arms smuggling in Syria and Lebanon, destroying economic infrastructure in Yemen, and building quiet alliances with Arab countries – David Barnea remains a generally beloved figure, but not free from criticism. His critics claim he avoids pushing the political echelon toward long-term strategy and settles for the status of execution contractor. On the other hand, some view an advantage in distancing the Mossad from the political sphere and limiting its involvement to a professional level only.

Since October 2023, Barnea has carried on his shoulders not only Mossad's missions but also public trust in the security establishment. In many ways, restoring Israelis' sense of security is the most difficult test. Barnea is currently in his fifth and perhaps final year in office, and Mossad, under his leadership, continues recording achievements. Alongside these achievements, his future legacy will also be determined by whether he succeeds in shaping a flexible, innovative, and resilient Mossad for the long term, and whether he will leave for those coming after him an infrastructure similar to what his predecessors left him.

The post 'Works like a machine': The man who led Mossad to unprecedented success appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

Al-Julani seeks to rebuild the Syrian army with Turkish support

omrif — Thu, 10 Apr 2025 08:45:00 +0000

In recent days, the IDF operated in Syria. Troops from the IDF's 474th Brigade targeted terrorist infrastructure near the town of Tasil in southern Syria, while the Israeli Air Force struck the Tadmur and T4 airfields to thwart Turkey's growing entrenchment in the country. Turkey has been relentlessly working to strengthen its influence in Syria under the new regime. But beyond boosting its own presence, Ankara is also actively involved in efforts to establish a new Syrian army.

In early February, just days after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Syrian ruler Ahmad al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al-Julani), Turkish security sources revealed Ankara's secret plan to rebuild Syria's military, as reported by the Turkish news outlet YetkinReport. The site, known for its credibility and managed by veteran journalist Murat Yetkin, often takes a critical stance toward Erdogan.

According to these sources, the joint Turkish-Syrian plan aims to establish control by the "Second Syrian Transitional Government" (SSTG) – the new governing body led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and al-Sharaa – over Syria's military and civilian institutions, restoring their functionality. During this phase, Turkey has reportedly pledged extensive logistical and political support to assist the new regime in carrying out this task.

Simultaneously, Syria is expected to assess its defense needs and relay them to Turkey. The same sources told YetkinReport that Ankara is willing to meet all Syrian requests, ranging from military training and advisory services to the establishment of facilities and weapons provision.

Turkish forces near the border with Syria AFP

Al-Julani's challenges

One of the key challenges facing HTS rule in northern Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime is unifying and managing the myriad armed factions operating in the region. Efforts toward centralized governance have focused on two main areas: the Interior Ministry – which functions relatively cohesively – and the Defense Ministry, which faces significant difficulties in bringing all armed factions under a single chain of command.

The lack of full control over the armed forces has led not only to widespread violations by these groups but also to operational complications for the Interior Ministry, which lacks legal authority over military units nominally subordinated to the Defense Ministry.

Despite attempts to build a unified military structure, international sanctions on Syria have prevented significant investment or external resource inflows to the Defense Ministry, which remains in dire financial straits. Without the means to pay regular salaries, the central regime lacks effective levers of influence over the independent armed groups and cannot offer incentives for them to surrender their autonomy – apart from threats of military action.

While no single faction is powerful enough to directly challenge HTS rule, the mere existence of autonomous armed forces severely undermines the central authority. In practice, al-Sharaa's regime does not control large swaths of the country. Some of these forces have recently been involved in sectarian violence against Alawites, particularly along Syria's coastal region, while others use their military strength to pressure Sunni communities and other minorities in areas under their control.

The new Syrian military in the Latakia region. Photo: Reuters

Few soldiers, many units

The emerging new Syrian army comprises a mix of long-standing HTS units, restructured NLF factions, Syrian National Army (SNA) units, and new brigades formed under the Defense Ministry. While some of these frameworks are largely declarative, others are already engaged in operations, signaling a real organizational structure. The force distribution primarily follows geographical criteria, resembling the pre-2011 Syrian Army model.

The most prominent example of a unit formally under al-Julani's regime but operating independently is the SNA, established under the auspices of the Turkish Defense Ministry. The SNA includes no fewer than 41 groups. It enjoys Turkish backing and also benefits from revenue generated through illicit trade in northern Syria and adjacent Turkish border areas, making it financially independent from Syrian funds. While Turkey supports the establishment of a new army, the militia coalition representing its interests maintains autonomy.

This powerful coalition is formally subordinated to al-Sharaa's Defense Ministry but wields enough clout to dictate its terms. Its independence is especially evident in the context of human rights abuses. When the new regime's internal security units attempt to restrain such activities, they are often met with defiance: "We are not under your authority." The ministry has so far failed to enforce its directives.

Fighters of the new regime in Syria. Photo: AFP

The National Liberation Front (NLF), which unites former Free Syrian Army (FSA) factions and Islamist groups, presents a different model of cooperation. These groups submitted to HTS control in 2018-2019 after rounds of internal fighting in Idlib. In exchange for giving up political aspirations, they were allowed to retain limited military autonomy and integrated into HTS operational and training frameworks, as well as into the Defense Ministry. As a result, NLF factions display higher trust in HTS. Many of these factions were absorbed into the regime forces under new names, now operating within the Defense Ministry and alongside Interior Ministry units.

Interior Ministry units include the HTS police and the regime's security apparatus. Locally, these units report to the "district governor" (mudir manatiq), a position traditionally held by senior figures from the police or administration in Idlib. Their proximity to the leadership has enabled the Interior Ministry to maintain relatively effective control over its forces, which show a higher degree of professionalism compared to the military units.

Mohammad al-Julani, the new leader of Syria. Photo: Aref TAMMAWI / AFP

At the end of January, the new Defense Ministry, headed by HTS Gen. Marhaf Abu-Qasra, issued a call for all armed factions to disarm and merge into a unified military force that would form the foundation of the new Syrian army. Around a dozen factions – including HTS itself – declared their disbandment, though in most cases this move was merely symbolic. The internal command structures of these factions remained largely intact, masked by a new chain of command that ostensibly placed them under the ministry. In practice, most armed groups have avoided formally joining the Defense Ministry and certainly have not dismantled their original organizational frameworks.

Currently, the regime maintains significant forces primarily in western Syria – from north to south – including Aleppo, Idlib, Latakia, Hama, Tartus, Homs, Damascus, and Daraa. In addition, divisions under al-Sharaa's control operate in eastern Syria and the vast Syrian Desert, which stretches across central and southeastern parts of the country.

Syria's new security architecture continues to evolve amid ongoing negotiations between various factions and the Defense Ministry. So far, HTS has succeeded in integrating some factions into the unified structure, but several powerful groups remain independent and continue to challenge its authority – most notably the Kurds, the Druze, and other factions. In the coming months, it will become clear whether the Defense Ministry can establish an effective central command or whether Syria will persist as a patchwork of semi-autonomous armed forces, posing a lasting challenge to stability within the country and beyond.

The post Al-Julani seeks to rebuild the Syrian army with Turkish support appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

Billion-dollar budget: Iran's plan for control in Iraq

miriw — Sun, 23 Mar 2025 07:00:43 +0000

The Swords of Iron War has exposed extensive parts of the Iranian "Axis of Resistance" that had been operating far from the Israeli public's eye. Among the forces that have entered our radar are the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. This article examines who these militias are, the moves Iran is advancing to strengthen its power in the neighboring country with the aim of turning it into a partner in the "Unity of Fronts" plan, and the latest developments in the arena.

When discussing pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, the reference is primarily to al-Hashd al-Shaabi ("Popular Mobilization Forces" or PMF), an organization that brings together more than 60 militias – the vast majority Shiite and pro-Iranian, with a few Sunni, Yazidi, and even Christian ones – allegedly comprising nearly a quarter-million active members.

Among the dozens of militias under the "al-Hashd al-Shaabi" umbrella, one can find the Imam Hussein Brigade established by the Iranian Quds Force, the Kata'ib Imam Ali militia, the Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq organization that fought alongside Hezbollah against Israel in the Second Lebanon War, the Hezbollah al-Nujaba Movement supported by Hezbollah in Lebanon, Kata'ib Hezbollah established to expel US forces from Iraq, Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya, Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, and others.

Shiites break their fast during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan in the Imam Ali shrine in Najaf, Iraq, Friday, March 21, 2025 (Photo: AP /Anmar Khalil) AP

Since the October 7 massacre, the various factions have been involved in firing more than one hundred missiles and UAVs into Israeli territory, particularly at ports and airports, more than two hundred attacks against American forces in Iraq and Syria, operations against the Kurds in Syria, and additional forces associated with the pro-American axis.

For years, Iraq served as the main artery through which ammunition was transferred from Iran to Hezbollah and other pro-Iranian militias in Lebanon and Syria, particularly through the al-Bukamal border crossing between Iraq and Syria, whose western side is currently under Kurdish forces' control. Meanwhile, the PMF has been receiving military equipment and government funding since 2016, but significant changes have occurred in this aspect. To understand them, we need to go back a bit.

The first significant expression of Iranian involvement in Iraq could be seen during the Second Gulf War. Since the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Iranian Quds Force has led Shiite militias in Iraq, primarily Jaish al-Mahdi, which fought against the Americans and later – after Saddam's fall – against Iraq's armed forces, which were rebuilt with American assistance. Several years of brutal civil war and military operations by the new Iraqi government with American support against the organization led its leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, to declare the cessation of most of its military activity.

People attend a mass funeral of Hezbollah terrorists who died during fights with the Israeli army before the ceasefire, in Kfar Kila village, southern Lebanon, 09 March, 2025 (Photo: EPA/Wael Hamzeh) EPA

Then came ISIS

In June 2014, the Islamic State organization captured Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city. The appearance of this new and threatening player in the arena prompted al-Sadr to quickly reestablish the military wing of the organization, this time with a more peaceful name, Saraya al-Salam ("Peace Brigades"). The new-old organization merged into al-Hashd al-Shaabi, and facing the common enemy in the form of ISIS, the militias began cooperating with the Iraqi army, a scenario that seemed completely imaginary just a few months earlier.

In 2018, after Islamic State forces in Iraq were defeated, al-Sadr called on Shiite militias to disarm and return power to the Iraqi government. The vast majority of Saraya al-Salam operatives complied, and the organization – riding on the bravery it showed in the war against ISIS and the statesmanship it displayed by choosing to disarm – won most of the votes in the elections, and its members integrated into the Iraqi political system and security forces. The organization's members who fought shoulder to shoulder with PMF members and even belong to the same religious stream with most of them – became a powerful political factor.

Since the formation of the current Iraqi government in October 2022, the status of the militias has strengthened, with the support of Saraya al-Salam people and PMF supporters. If in 2022 the organization's budget stood at about $2.2 billion, in 2023 the amount rose to $2.6 billion, and last year it soared to a record of more than $3.4 billion. In addition, the organization received control of several military bases belonging to the Iraqi army, and its manpower increased from 122,000 soldiers to 238,000, although it is likely that some are fictitious and designed to justify the high budget.

Iraqi PMF terrorists on June 20, 2017 on the Iraq-Syria border in Nineveh, Iraq (Photo: Martyn Aim/Getty Images) Getty Images

Fearing Israel and the US

With Donald Trump's return to the White House and the events of the past year, which included severe blows to the Iranian Axis of Resistance by Israel and the United States, PMF fears attacks on its senior officials. And they have good reason for this.

Since its establishment in 2014, al-Hashd al-Shaabi has repeatedly attacked American forces and collaborators with the American axis, coupled with the fact that it is an Iranian proxy, controlled by the Revolutionary Guards. Initially, the Americans somewhat tolerated PMF aggression due to the shared interest in the war against ISIS, but as time passed, Washington began to classify more and more groups within it as terrorist organizations, the latest in June 2024.

Moreover, the current PMF chairman, Faleh al-Fayad, has had sanctions imposed on him by the Americans due to severe human rights violations, and the head of the organization's operations division, Abdul Aziz al-Muhammadawi (known as "Abu Fadak"), is a senior member of Kata'ib Hezbollah, which last January attacked American bases, causing the deaths of three soldiers and injuries to 47 others. In response, the US Air Force attacked 85 targets of pro-Iranian elements in Iraq and Syria; almost all facilities were destroyed or disabled, and dozens of operatives from terrorist militias and the Revolutionary Guards were eliminated.

Recently, a bill with the innocent name "PMF Service and Retirement Law" was raised in the Iraqi parliament. The bill raised in the Iraqi parliament was ostensibly intended to deter the US and Israel from attacking PMF forces by replacing militant commanders with those perceived as more moderate, but supporters of the old guard in al-Hashd al-Shaabi claimed that it was actually a political move driven by those who pretended to replace them. The most discussed section included retirement at age 60, which would push out the current chairman, Faleh al-Fayad, who will celebrate his 69th birthday this week, and about 180 other senior officials in the PMF. According to reports in Iraq, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is acting in accordance with the interests of the veteran leaders.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani meets with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, in Baghdad, Iraq, March 14, 2025 (Photo: Iraqi Prime Minister Media Office/ Reuters) via REUTERS

Eventually, after the bill stirred echoes in Iraq, it was ultimately withdrawn and will not be put to a vote. It can be assumed that other proposals dealing with the structure of the militias and their future will arise in the near future in the local parliament.

The worst scenario for the American axis in general and Israel in particular is the continued creeping empowerment of the militias until one bright day Iraq becomes another link in the "Unity of Fronts" scenario in the regional conflict, and not just a transit station or logistical rear between Iran, Syria, and Lebanon. Replacing Faleh al-Fayad and the old guard, which strives to adopt more and more power at the expense of the Iraqi government, with new leaders who will be committed to the country's sovereignty, alongside changing the definition of PMF's authority in Iraq by law, so that the militias lose their power – is a Western interest.

Much is discussed about the application of maximum American pressure on Iran and its possible effects on the ayatollah regime and the nuclear project it is racing toward. Intensifying sanctions on Iran's proxies will also make it difficult for them to play their part in the Iranian destruction machine. In the context of the militias in Iraq, sanctions can be imposed on the entire economic wing of the PMF and groups under it, including personal sanctions on entities involved in the field.

The post Billion-dollar budget: Iran's plan for control in Iraq appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

Silent enabler: US-backed country helping Houthis

miriw — Wed, 12 Mar 2025 07:00:26 +0000

Nearly two weeks ago, phase one of the deal between Israel and Hamas concluded, with Israel halting humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip several days after its completion. In response, on Friday, the Houthi leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, announced a "return to maritime operations against Israeli vessels" if aid is not allowed into Gaza within four days – meaning by Tuesday, March 11.

Since the completion of the first phase of the deal, intensive negotiations have been ongoing between the parties, with attempts to bridge the gaps between them, but at this stage it appears highly likely that fighting on the southern front is expected to resume. The latest Houthi threat refers to "only" maritime actions, but as the Houthis have declared in the past, if Israel resumes fighting in Gaza – they will resume attacking Israel. As a result, the Houthi threat to the country, which includes launching ballistic missiles, UAVs, and more – is back on the table.

Iranian Army soldiers in action during joint military drills between Iran, Russia, and China in the Gulf of Oman, issued 12 March 2025 (Photo: EPA/Iranian Army) EPA

Since the beginning of the war, there has been a new awareness in Israel and worldwide regarding the major terrorism financiers in the world, Qatar and Iran, but there is also one entity that manages to stay under the radar despite its support for the Houthis – Oman.

The Qatari game

In recent years, there has been a certain warming in relations between Oman and Israel.

In 2018, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made an official diplomatic visit to Oman, the first since 1996, where he met with then-Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said. This followed prolonged contact between the countries that began about 40 years earlier, mostly under the table.

In February 2023, Oman approved Israeli airlines to fly through its airspace, but canceled this approval with the outbreak of the current war. A few months before October 7, Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi referenced the possibility of his country establishing relations with Israel, saying it was open to this but conditioned it on the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Alongside the rapprochement with Israel, Oman maintains good and continuous relations with the Americans, with both countries maintaining security and intelligence cooperation. In 2022, US arms sales to Oman totaled about $3.5 billion (about 12.4 billion shekels).

The current Sultan of Oman, Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, is considered a legitimate figure in the West and has even received official honors in Britain and Belgium (also in Austria and another honor in Britain, but these were before he was crowned Sultan).

Financial aid, weapons transfers, and connections with Iran

Parallel to its relations with the West, Oman plays a double game.

Since 2015, Oman has been providing the Houthis with a smuggling route for weapons and access to the international financial system. In 2017 and 2018, Burkan 2 ballistic missiles and UAVs were transferred to the Houthis through Oman, and in 2023, advanced military equipment was seized at the Oman-Yemen border, including support systems for UAVs and radar jamming devices, equipment that was reportedly intended for attacking ships in the Red Sea.

Economically, senior Houthi officials transfer funds, including US dollars, through banks in Oman, which have access to the international financial system.

Iranian Army soldiers in action during joint military drills between Iran, Russia, and China in the Gulf of Oman, issued 12 March 2025 (Photo: EPA/Iranian Army) EPA

Additionally, Oman provides a safe haven for senior Houthi officials, including Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdul Salam. These officials operate openly and unhindered from Oman. The Grand Mufti of Oman, Ahmed al-Khalili, even praised the Houthis, called Iran's missile attack on Israel in April last year "brave" and "a joyous matter," and expressed support for Hamas actions against Israel.

The connections between Oman and Iran highlight another problem, as official representatives of the ayatollah regime regularly visit Oman to meet with Houthi representatives. According to estimates, these meetings involve operational coordination between the Iranian octopus and one of its central arms, including the transfer of intelligence, targets, and more.

After the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Israel saw Oman as a partner in the fight against the "Shiite Crescent" and Iran's nuclear program. However, Israel faced some disappointment on this front, and according to documents leaked and published on WikiLeaks, former head of the Middle East Division, Yacov Hadas-Handelsman, described Oman as the most problematic country among Gulf states in its attitude toward Iran.

Iranian Army soldiers in action during military drills in the Gulf of Oman on December 31, 2022 (Photo: EPA/Iranian Army) AFP

Alongside its relations with the Americans, Oman has economic interests with Iran. The latter is much stronger than Oman, and the two have shared economic interests, as they jointly control the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 40% of global oil passes. In May 2023, Sultan Haitham visited Tehran, two days after Oman mediated a prisoner exchange deal between Iran and Belgium. Last April, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian visited the Omani capital, Muscat.

The Sultanate claims that they play an important role in American policy toward Tehran, including hosting the talks that led to the nuclear agreement during the Obama administration and mediating between the Biden administration and Iran in 2023. Since October 7, Muscat has served as a mediator maintaining contact with both sides and passing messages between them.

The Omanis are playing the Qatari game, just with a lower profile.

It is time to pick a side

For years, the White House has treated Oman with infuriating leniency and accepted its narrative that it hosts Houthi leaders to promote a solution to the civil war in Yemen.

Houthi terrorists carry weapons during a protest against Israel's blockade of Gaza aid in Sana'a, Yemen, March 11, 2025 EPA/Yahya Arhab EPA

Additionally, Houthi aggression in the Red Sea has severely damaged trade in the region for an extended period and has cost the Americans a significant amount of money, both directly and indirectly, including dedicating considerable military expenditures to deal with the threat.

Oman also allows Russian tankers to unload oil at its ports to sell cheaply to India, despite American sanctions on the Russians following the invasion of Ukraine.

The reintroduction of the Houthis to the list of terrorist organizations by the Trump administration may raise hopes for marking a more aggressive line against Omani slipperiness and expelling their leaders from its territory, but it should be remembered that even during his first term, the Houthis were defined as such and security cooperation with Oman continued as usual. Moreover, in 2022, the American president engaged with the Sultanate of Oman in a real estate deal worth about $4 billion (about 14.2 billion shekels).

The post Silent enabler: US-backed country helping Houthis appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

A killer secret: Putin's alleged mother hails from Georgia

miriw — Sun, 09 Mar 2025 07:00:32 +0000

"Anyone who's had a fight with their mother thinks they can mediate with Iran," said a former US State Department Persian language spokesperson this week, responding to Russia's offer to mediate between the US and Iran. What does he actually mean? A glimpse into the past that Vladimir Putin is apparently trying to hide.

On August 9, 1999, then-Russian President Boris Yeltsin fired Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin and appointed the Federal Security Service chief as prime minister – Vladimir Putin. This marked the security veteran's first entry into state politics, where he has remained ever since. Shortly before taking office, his father died, and about a year earlier his mother had passed away – both from cancer. At least that's what Putin himself claimed. But in a small village in eastern Georgia lived a woman who firmly insisted she was the Russian president's biological mother. The story of Vera Putina, a woman who died in 2023 and who, even after her death, remained the great secret of one of the world's most powerful men.

Young Vladimir Putin (Screenshot: Youtube)

In 2003, Dutch filmmaker Inge Smits released a film about Putina. According to Putin's alleged mother, the Russian president's father was a Russian mechanic named Platon Privalov. He got her pregnant while married to another woman, hiding this fact from her. When Putina discovered Privalov's wife, she left him. According to her, she gave birth on October 7, 1950 – exactly two years before Putin's official birth date – and named the child Vova, a common nickname for Vladimir.

In 1952, Putina married a Georgian soldier and moved with him and her son Vova to the village of Metekhi in Georgia, located about 12 miles from the city of Gori, where Josef Stalin was born. In December 1960, under pressure from her husband, she gave Vova to his grandparents in St. Petersburg, Russia (then Leningrad), Putin's official birthplace. Putina believed that those whom Putin refers to as his parents adopted her son from his grandparents.

Vera Putina, Vladimir Putin's alleged mother (Screenshot: Youtube)

In 2008, the British Telegraph spoke with a former elementary school teacher in Metekhi. That woman claimed she taught Putin between 1958-1960. She described him as "a most brilliant child who loved Russian fairy tales and Russian was his favorite subject. He also loved fishing and wrestling. He was the shortest child in the class but he always wanted to win at everything."

Last year, Israel Hayom interviewed Polish writer Krystyna Kurczab-Redlich, who lived in Russia where she worked as a journalist, published two non-fiction books about Russia, and is currently working on a Putin biography. In the interview, Kurczab-Redlich said that in 2000, while speaking with hospital patients who had been shot by Russian forces, a foreign journalist approached her and told her there was a group of journalists going to meet Putin's mother. According to her, "It wasn't a secret at all."

Kurczab-Redlich added that during that period, a man came to the Chechen embassy in Tbilisi and tried to convince the Chechens to kidnap a woman named Vera from the village of Metekhi for half a million dollars, claiming she was Putin's mother. The Chechens didn't believe him, so the man played them recordings of her neighbors telling stories about Vera and Vova who lived in the village during his childhood. "The next day, when we set out for Georgia, they wouldn't let us in. That's when I understood there's no smoke without fire."

In the past, many questions have arisen about Putin's family history. The Russian president's background is shrouded in mystery, and the details provided in his autobiography about the first decade of his life are very scarce compared to those of other world leaders. According to Putin's official line, his parents were in their forties when he was born, leaving a gap of more than a decade since his two older brothers died in infancy until Putin's birth.

"Imagine that in Leningrad, before Vova's arrival, no one saw Maria pregnant or with a baby carriage," Kurczab-Redlich told Israel Hayom (David Baron). "Vladimir and Maria's two children died. One during the Nazi siege of Leningrad, and the other before that. Children who grew up in the same block said that Aunt Masha brought the new child in her arms, said he was her son, Vova, and asked them not to insult him. Something along those lines."

Vladimir Putin as a baby, according to Vera Putina (Screenshot: Youtube)

"He needed to start first grade and learn everything from scratch," she said, "so they issued him a new birth certificate stating he was born in 1952. That's how Vova's real biography began, but in his official biography, to this day, the woman listed as his mother is not his mother, his father is not his father, his birthplace is not the real place, and even the date is off by two years."

According to Putina, she had not seen her son since 1960, but in 1999 suddenly spotted him on television. When asked by Smits how she recognized her son after not seeing him for nearly 40 years, she replied: "No matter how much time has passed, do you think a mother wouldn't recognize her own son?" Putina had a black-and-white photograph of Vova. Photography experts who examined it weren't convinced whether the photo matched the Russian president.

In an interview with the Telegraph, she declared she was no longer willing to speak with journalists on the matter, but challenged Putin to disprove her story. "I'm ready to take a DNA test." Putina also claimed that nurses had visited her and taken blood samples, supposedly for DNA tests, but the results were never published.

Putina's claim also presents an intriguing detail in light of the conflict between Russia and Georgia, giving it a more personal dimension. Moscow has previously claimed that Putina's assertions were nothing but Georgian propaganda. "I used to be proud that my son became the president of Russia, since the war (with Georgia) I've been ashamed," she said in that Telegraph interview.

For those inclined toward conspiracy theories that might strengthen speculation about Putin's mother, some claim that Russian journalist and tycoon Artyom Borovik was on his way to publish the full story about Vera Putina when his private plane crashed. Italian journalist Antonio Russo sent photographs of Putina to Italy in preparation for an article about her shortly before he was shot dead near Tbilisi. No connection has been proven between these deaths and Putina.

The post A killer secret: Putin's alleged mother hails from Georgia appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

Iran's energy crisis is worse than reported

omrif — Tue, 25 Feb 2025 07:00:25 +0000

At the beginning of the month, Iranian Energy Minister Mohsen Pakanjad stated that Iran would need an astronomical investment of approximately $45 billion to resolve the country's energy shortages during the winter. However, an intelligence source told us that the crisis is even worse than officially acknowledged.

The situation continues to deteriorate. As of Monday, public services in 22 of Iran's 31 provinces have been completely shut down, including government offices, courts, banks, and educational institutions. These closures, caused by severe gas shortages and power outages, have effectively reduced Iran's workweek to just two or three days in recent weeks. According to the intelligence source, blackouts in Iran's major cities have reached unprecedented levels, and the situation is even worse in smaller cities and rural areas, where the majority of the Iranian population resides.

Recent harsh weather conditions, including snow, rain, and plummeting temperatures, have further strained Iran's fragile energy infrastructure. Officials in several provinces have announced service shutdowns in major regions, including Tehran and Isfahan, two of the three most populous provinces in Iran. Authorities in Greater Tehran have ordered the shutdown of all heating systems to conserve fuel.

For years, Iran's workweek has been out of sync with the global economy, with the weekend falling on Thursday and Friday instead of Saturday and Sunday. The frequent shutdowns have made it increasingly difficult for Iranians to conduct business with the outside world, sometimes for half the month or even longer. The workweek reduction comes at a particularly inconvenient time, just before Nowruz, the Persian New Year, which is traditionally celebrated on March 20. This period is usually a peak season for businesses, with retailers relying on a seasonal boost in sales. However, this year, sales are at a record low.

Refineries in Bushehr, Iran. Photo: Shutterstock

While the ayatollah regime attributes the frequent shutdowns to weather conditions, Iran's meteorological services have not reported unusual seasonal temperatures or heavy snowfall in many of the affected provinces. The Persian-language London-based channel Iran International suggested that the extreme weather may have worsened the situation but is not the primary cause of the shutdowns, which it claims are politically motivated. "The government is announcing these closures to conceal its failure in managing energy infrastructure. They know that if they don't shut things down, people will protest the lack of heating and electricity," the outlet reported.

The closure of the public sector has become a recurring phenomenon in Iran. In recent months, schools and offices have been repeatedly shut down due to air pollution, dust storms, cold weather, and fuel shortages.

Many Iranians have taken to social media to complain that school closures in certain provinces have been announced without any provision for online learning. Others argue that virtual education is ineffective anyway, as power outages disrupt internet access. Iran's outdated telecommunications infrastructure also lacks sufficient battery backup systems, further compromising connectivity.

Adding to the economic woes, the Iranian rial continues to weaken against the US dollar amid mounting financial pressures from American sanctions. The currency's decline has further reduced purchasing power, leaving many consumers unable to afford even discounted goods.

As early as December, Iran was forced to shut down offices and schools in multiple provinces due to energy shortages. By September, reports indicated that the crisis had reached such severity that the Islamic Republic had to import gas from Russia to meet domestic demand, even during non-peak hours when planned blackouts were not in effect. However, the shutdowns are now expanding to more provinces and becoming increasingly frequent.

A gas station in Isfahan, Iran. Photo: Shutterstock

A capitalist solution?

Amid the worsening energy crisis and Iran's deepening economic woes, alongside the government's plan to significantly increase the military budget, Iranian Chief of Staff General Mohammad Bagheri proposed a surprising solution: privatization. "The way to save the country is to turn to the people. If we want to solve the economic crisis, the answer is to involve the private sector and entrust the work to the people," he suggested on Monday.

It is worth noting that Iran effectively operates two parallel military forces: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) led by General Hossein Salami, and the Iranian Army, often referred to as "the Shah's army," headed by Bagheri.

While Bagheri's call for a capitalist reform of the energy sector may seem unexpected, it aligns with a long-standing trend of Iran's armed forces, particularly the IRGC, benefiting from previous waves of privatization. The proposed 2025-2026 budget, submitted by the Iranian government and expected to be approved by March 20, seeks to double military spending, including a significant increase in the IRGC's budget.

Iranian Chief of Staff, general Mohammad Bagheri.

Iran's parliament, the Majles, is planning to allocate approximately half of the government's oil and gas revenues, currently around €24 billion, to the armed forces. A 2024 Reuters report found that the IRGC already controls up to half of Iran's oil exports, using the proceeds to fund its military operations and regional allies.

Contrary to Bagheri's privatization proposal, some in Iran fear that the real trend is actually toward resource nationalization. The new state budget allows the Oil Ministry to contract third parties to manage oil and gas fields as a means of covering debts. This has raised concerns that such contracts will ultimately end up in the hands of entities that appear private or semi-private but are, in reality, controlled by the regime or its affiliates, such as religious foundations or IRGC-owned corporations.

Rather than benefiting genuine private businesses, this strategy could enable the government to maintain and even expand its grip on the country's resources. Recent data from Iran's central bank indicates a significant decline in private sector involvement in foreign trade, with government-affiliated entities receiving the majority of foreign currency. Customs data also suggests that in several key markets, state-controlled entities are actually increasing their dominance over Iran's total exports.

The post Iran's energy crisis is worse than reported appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

Trump effect? China dramatically curtails Iranian oil exports

omrif — Tue, 18 Feb 2025 23:00:51 +0000

Last month, the Chinese government banned oil tankers subject to US sanctions from entering ports in Shandong, the key province for China-Iran trade, through which about 90% of Iranian oil flows. As a result, China's imports of Iranian oil plummeted by more than half. According to data from the French analytics firm Kpler, Iran's oil shipments to China fell below 850,000 barrels per day in January, compared to over 1.8 million barrels per day in October 2023. In 2024, Shandong alone received approximately 1.74 million barrels per day from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela - accounting for about 17% of China's total imports. However, last month, these figures dropped to less than half.

Iran's oil export revenues had already been suffering due to US sanctions. Following Iran's missile attack in October, the Biden administration imposed sanctions on dozens of tankers carrying Iranian oil, leading to a slight decline in China-Iran trade. However, the most significant blow came last month, with some speculating that Beijing's tougher stance on Iran stems from fears that US President Donald Trump would impose sanctions on China.

Most Iranian oil tankers are now anchored in waters off Singapore and Malaysia, while Tehran scrambles to find non-sanctioned vessels to transport shipments to Shandong.

$2 billion in losses

Despite the gradual decline in Iran's oil shipments to China in late 2024 and their sharp plunge in January, Iranian customs data suggests that the country's oil revenues had already started to fall drastically in October 2023. Between March and September 2024, Iranian customs and government agencies consistently reported monthly oil revenue figures. However, since October, they have refrained from publishing data.

The last official figures released by Iran's customs authority indicated that the country exported $23 billion worth of oil during the first six months of the current fiscal year (March 21–September 21). Recently, Iranian Economy Minister Abdolnaser Hemmati claimed on X that oil revenues had reached $30 billion over the past ten months. This suggests that Iran's monthly oil export revenues have plummeted from $3.83 billion in the first half of the fiscal year to just $1.75 billion over the past four months, a staggering 55% decline.

Tankers at Qingdao Port in Shandong province, China, this week. Photo: AFP

Beyond the sharp drop in exports to China, Iran has also faced minor setbacks in oil sales to Syria, which ceased entirely in recent months following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime. However, this only accounted for around 60,000 barrels per day.

At the end of Biden's term, Washington imposed sanctions on more than 180 tankers carrying Russian oil. According to Reuters, this led to a 3.5-fold increase in the cost of renting non-sanctioned vessels for transporting Russian oil to China. As a result, some tankers that had previously been used for smuggling Iranian oil shifted to serving Russia, further complicating Iran's ability to find legal tankers for transporting oil to Chinese ports.

In this context, international analytics firm TankerTrackers, which monitors global maritime traffic and energy data, reported over the weekend that a large tanker previously used for smuggling Iranian oil is now en route to China with 1.9 million barrels of Russian oil. Similarly, Kpler confirmed that several large tankers that once serviced Iran are now being used by Russia.

Domestic turmoil

In recent months, Iran has been grappling with an unprecedented energy crisis, exacerbating the Islamic Republic's severe economic woes, which the regime has been unable to resolve. Since September, the Iranian rial has lost half its value against the US dollar, a sharp decline expected to further worsen Iran's already high inflation by increasing the costs of domestic production and imports.

Amid repeated calls by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for unity within the government and his criticism of the lack of coordination between the president and parliament, Iranian lawmakers held a closed-door session yesterday (Tuesday) to update President Masoud Pezeshkian on the currency collapse. As the economic crisis deepens, members of Iran's parliament, the Majles, have initiated impeachment proceedings against Economy Minister Hemmati and Energy Minister Ali Akbari over their failure to address the energy crisis. Additionally, lawmakers are pressuring Pezeshkian to dismiss Central Bank Governor Alireza Farzin.

The Iranian and Chinese foreign ministers at their meeting in December. Photo: EPA

Under Iranian law, a minister (or president) can be impeached by the Majles through a multi-step process that requires significant parliamentary support. However, only ten signatures are needed to launch proceedings, and so far, 89 Majles members have signed the motion.

"The Majles has committed to expediting Hemmati's impeachment unless he and Pezeshkian convince parliament that they are taking effective measures to address the crisis and improve living standards," Iranian media quoted parliamentary sources as saying. Pezeshkian has faced repeated criticism in the press for reappointing officials from former President Ebrahim Raisi's administration, including Akbari and Farzin. Given this, he may support their removal to deflect criticism against himself.

However, before celebrating signs of a no-confidence vote against the Iranian government, it's important to put things into perspective. Impeachment proceedings are not uncommon in Iran. In 2012, the Majles launched impeachment proceedings against then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, bringing him before parliament for questioning. In 2020, 120 lawmakers supported summoning then-President Hassan Rouhani for a hearing, and in 2023, former Industry Minister Reza Fatemi Amin was ousted, just six months after surviving an impeachment vote.

Iranian media suggest that Trump's return to the White House and the revival of his "maximum pressure" policy have exacerbated Iran's economic crisis, contributing to the rial's depreciation and the surge in gold prices in the Iranian market. However, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told local media on Monday, "Maximum pressure and international decisions have never been effective against Iran… We will not negotiate under threat."

The post Trump effect? China dramatically curtails Iranian oil exports appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

China on track to becoming the world's leading superpower

omrif — Tue, 04 Feb 2025 04:25:16 +0000

-October 2013, St. Petersburg-

The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) held an unusual press conference, an uncommon move for the secretive agency. Before the cameras, Russian intelligence officials showcased what appeared to be ordinary household appliances, such as irons and kettles, bearing the logo of the French cookware manufacturer "Tefal." However, upon closer inspection, subtle discrepancies in the logo were detected.

FSB officials proceeded to dismantle the appliances, revealing hidden microphones and wireless internet connectivity. Once plugged in, these devices automatically connected to local Wi-Fi networks and functioned as remote espionage tools, transmitting intercepted data directly to China.

Following last week's groundbreaking developments with China's DeepSeek AI model, we take a deeper look at China's master plan to ascend as the world's foremost superpower through technology and artificial intelligence, the deep-seated national humiliation that fuels this ambition, and the staggering economic milestones it has already reached.

4,000 years of civilization

China is the world's oldest continuous civilization, boasting a history spanning between 3,500 and 4,000 years. As the cradle of East Asian culture, China historically viewed itself as the strongest and most advanced nation on Earth. The country's name in Chinese translates to "the Middle Kingdom," reflecting its traditional self-perception as the world's central power.

A famous quote by Israeli leader Yigal Allon states, "A people who do not know their past have a meager present and an uncertain future." The Chinese embrace this philosophy wholeheartedly. They regard their history as the most influential and pivotal force in human progress, believing that membership in the Chinese nation is the pinnacle of human experience.

Their confidence is not without merit. China's contributions to human civilization are vast, including some of history's most transformative inventions: paper, printing, the compass, and gunpowder. It is home to the Great Wall, the largest structure ever built, and Sun Tzu's The Art of War, considered the strategic bible of warfare.

Then came the 19th century.

The largest structure in human history: The Great Wall of China. Photo: Shutterstock

Humiliated, weakened, and ravaged by drugs

In 1839, Western powers, chief among them Britain, France, and Japan, sought to trade opium with Chinese merchants. The Chinese government opposed the trade, sparking conflict. The British Navy, leveraging its technological superiority, attacked Chinese port cities, delivering a crushing defeat. China was subsequently forced to sign a humiliating treaty, granting foreign powers significant control over its territory and trade, including ceding Hong Kong and several islands to British rule.

These conflicts, later known as the Opium Wars, did not end there. A few years later, British and French forces invaded China again, capturing Beijing, burning down the imperial palace, and imposing yet another surrender treaty.

By the end of the 19th century (1894–1895), China suffered another devastating blow in the First Sino-Japanese War, losing Taiwan to Japan. In 1911, the Qing Dynasty, the last imperial dynasty, collapsed - throwing China into political chaos and further diminishing its power. In 1937, the Second Sino-Japanese War erupted. Japan brutally overpowered China, killing an estimated 18 million Chinese, mostly civilians, while committing acts of unimaginable cruelty.

By the end of World War II in 1945, China emerged from a century of humiliation, weakened, bloodied, and anxious. As the world moved forward, China stepped back. While global powers embraced modernization, China stagnated, allowing the very European nations it once regarded as inferior barbarians to dominate it. While China played a minimal role in the first three waves of the Industrial Revolution, it was determined to lead in the fourth, the era of the Smart Industry.

A Chinese poster featuring Mao's Image. Photo: Getty Images

"The greatest economic achievement in human history"

Before discussing China's technological advancements, one must first recognize its remarkable industrial and economic revolution.

Amidst its "century of humiliation," a civil war broke out in 1927 between Chinese nationalists and communists, led by Mao Zedong. The conflict was temporarily paused during the Sino-Japanese War but resumed afterward, ultimately culminating in a communist victory and the establishment of the People's Republic of China under Mao, one of history's most destructive rulers.

Mao's most infamous policy was the "Great Leap Forward" in the late 1950s, a disastrous economic reform that resulted in mass starvation, killing tens of millions. However, in the 1980s, Chinese leadership realized that a strong nation could not be built on an impoverished agrarian society. As a result, they began liberalizing markets, strengthening the industrial sector, and setting the stage for an economic revolution. China's real turning point came in 2001 when it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO).

By opening its markets to global trade, China became the world's manufacturing hub, earning the title "the world's factory." The results were extraordinary: nearly eradicating famine and extreme poverty. Before its WTO accession, nearly half of China's population lived under the United Nations' definition of extreme poverty. However, according to economist Eran Nissan in The Next 100 Years of War (Matar Publishing), which examines the intensifying US-China rivalry, that number plummeted over the following decades.

In 2019, the Chinese government reported that only 5.5 million people, 0.4% of its officially recognized 1.4 billion citizens, remained in extreme poverty. Nissan describes China's fight against poverty as "perhaps the greatest economic achievement in human history."

Photo: Shutterstock

The Chinese Dream

A well-known cliché in the intelligence world states that "every country spies on every other country." Does this explain why China allegedly planted espionage devices in Russian appliances?

When people think of espionage, especially between nations, they typically envision security, diplomacy, and intelligence operations. However, reports suggest that China's use of these electronic devices was primarily for industrial espionage. A report by the US National Counterintelligence and Security Center concluded that "China is the world's most active player in economic espionage." For years, the global industrial sector has been aware of China's theft of sensitive economic data to develop low-cost replicas of Western products.

In The Hundred-Year Marathon, Michael Pillsbury (Sela Meir Publishing, translated by Yemima Avron and Elhanan Speiser) writes: "China's expansion into international markets follows one undeniable rule: It does not play by the rules." Indeed, China has long been seen as a nation that copies Western innovations and produces them cheaply. While it was once known for its ability to implement existing technology efficiently, China now leads the world in cutting-edge research and development.

China learned firsthand the price of technological inferiority when it was bombarded by British cannons in the 19th century. Today, "the ambition of China's leaders, led by Xi Jinping, dictates that China will not rest until it becomes the world's top innovator," writes Nissan in The Next 100 Years of War.

Shortly after Xi Jinping was appointed General Secretary of the Communist Party (before becoming president), he delivered a speech outlining his vision for China. "Zhōngguó Mèng," he declared, the "Dream of a Strong Nation.", known as the Chinese Dream. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, he identified 2049, the centennial of the Communist Party's founding, as the year when this dream will be fully realized.

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger famously said, "Who controls money control the world." By 2040, China is projected to surpass the US as the world's largest economy. According to the purchasing power parity (PPP) metric, it already did so in 2014. "No serious financial institution still believes that China's economy will remain smaller than America's for much longer," writes Pillsbury.

A decade ago, China launched the Made in China 2025 initiative, aimed at positioning the country as a global leader in technological innovation by 2025. Last week, the world discovered that China had not only met its goal, but exceeded it. By 2030, it expects to lead the global technology sector outright.

How did China bridge the technological gap with the US so rapidly? How is it advancing AI with minimal investment? And what is the extent of China's influence on Israel? These questions will be explored in the next installment of our series on the great power struggle.

The post China on track to becoming the world's leading superpower appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

'The Hague Group': The countries imposing sanctions on Israel

omrif — Mon, 03 Feb 2025 07:06:19 +0000

Last week, representatives from nine countries gathered in The Hague, Netherlands, to announce the establishment of the "Hague Group," an initiative aimed at challenging Israel diplomatically. In a joint statement, the participating nations, Bolivia, Belize, South Africa, Honduras, Malaysia, Namibia, Senegal, Cuba, and Colombia, outlined their primary objectives: pressuring for the implementation of arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and possibly other senior officials; enforcing decisions of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) regarding the war in Gaza and the situation in the West Bank. Additionally, they declared economic sanctions against Israel, but what do these entail, and how significant are they?

The event was attended by representatives of the participating countries, their aides, UN officials, Palestinian public figures, and several politicians who came to express support for the initiative, including former UK Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, Sinn Féin leader Declan Kearney from Northern Ireland, and former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis. The announcement received limited media coverage, with only a handful of international news agencies and European journalists present, while English-language media was notably absent. However, the group called on additional nations to join the initiative, hoping it would lead to a significant shift in global attitudes toward Israel.

Alongside their commitment to enforcing the ICC and ICJ decisions, the Hague Group members declared economic sanctions against Israel. The nine countries will ban arms exports to Israel and prohibit ships carrying weapons and military-use fuel destined for Israel from docking at their ports. While this policy might seem damaging, as it renders much of southern Africa's coastline inaccessible for Israeli trade, the actual impact of these sanctions, if enforced at all, is expected to be minimal.

The International Criminal Court in The Hague. Photo: Reuters

Most goods imported into Israel do not pass through the ports of these countries but instead travel via major maritime routes, such as the Suez Canal, which connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. Additionally, the vast majority of military procurement for the Israel Defense Forces comes from the United States and Europe, making the sanctions practically insignificant.

The only potential economic impact relates to trade with the Hague Group member states themselves, particularly South Africa, the only country among them with some economic weight. South Africa is a member of the G-20, the forum of the world's leading economies, though it is the weakest economy in the group, often described as "a tail among lions." Israeli trade with South Africa primarily flows through the ports of Durban and Cape Town and consists mainly of agricultural exports, diamonds, metals, and other goods. However, even if South Africa were to escalate its stance and cut off trade with Israel entirely, the economic damage would be minimal. According to Ashra, Israel's government-owned foreign trade risk insurance company, Israeli exports to South Africa amount to approximately $200 million annually, while imports total around $150 million per year. Trade with the other countries on the list is even more limited.

Bottom line: The potential economic impact on Israel is negligible, and these countries lack geopolitical influence. Unless additional nations join the initiative, the damage caused by the Hague Group is expected to be marginal to nonexistent.

The post 'The Hague Group': The countries imposing sanctions on Israel appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.

From Iran to European nations: What does the world expect from Trump?

adin — Fri, 24 Jan 2025 07:00:31 +0000

On Monday, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th president of the US and began his second term. Iran and its proxies, other Arab nations like Syria and Iraq, America's Western allies, and international organizations are all closely watching to see what his administration will bring.

Iran and its proxies

Last week Bloomberg reported that Trump's advisers recommended returning to the maximum pressure strategy on Iran – which significantly curtailed Iranian oil exports during his first term – beginning with a comprehensive sanctions package targeting key players in the oil industry. These sanctions could be implemented as early as February, according to sources close to the 47th president. On the sanctions front, Iranian officials warned their European counterparts that if the "snap back" mechanism is activated – significant sanctions that can be imposed when Iran approaches nuclear weapons capability – they will immediately withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Al Arabiya reported last weekend that Israel has decided to strike Iran's nuclear facilities in the coming months. A senior European diplomat told the newspaper that it remains unclear whether the US will participate in the operation. Meanwhile, Iran has spent the last two weeks conducting drills to defend against aerial attacks on its nuclear facilities in Natanz and Fordow. The Ayatollah regime claims to have repaired damage from previous Israeli strikes on air defense systems and added new defensive capabilities.

An Iranian flag in Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, during an official ceremony to kick-start works on a second reactor at the facility on November 10, 2019. Photo credit: Atta Kenare/AFP Atta Kenare/AFP

The head of international relations for Hamas, Mousa Abu Marzouk, declared his organization's readiness to engage with the US and reach understandings "on all issues." Whether these statements represent Hamas's official position remains unclear. In an interview with The New York Times, Abu Marzouk characterized Donald Trump as a serious president, stating: "Trump needs to take credit for ending the war" and welcomed new US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff's decision to visit Gaza. "Witkoff can come see the people and try to understand their feelings and desires so American policy will reflect all sides' interests, not just one perspective," he explained.

Aidarus al-Zoubaidi, vice president of Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council – which opposes the Houthis and holds UN recognition – recently argued that airstrikes alone are insufficient against the Houthis and ground operations are necessary. Yesterday he welcomed Trump's White House return, telling Reuters that Trump's strong leadership and willingness to use military force contrasts sharply with the Biden administration's approach, which he claims allowed the Houthis to consolidate power and expand beyond Yemen's borders.

"We admire and support Trump's policy," al-Zoubaidi declared at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, adding "he knows what he wants" and expressing optimism about early talks with the new administration. Al-Zoubaidi emphasized the need for a coordinated international, regional, and local strategy under US leadership to weaken the Houthis and end their attacks on Red Sea shipping.

The Houthis have already reduced their attacks and today announced they will target only Israeli vessels, significantly diminishing Trump's motivation to strike them. The terror organization controlling western Yemen stated that if the Israel-Hamas ceasefire becomes permanent, they will cease attacks on Israeli ships as well.

Israel has expressed concern that the Lebanese Army's deployment in the Litani area – meant to prevent Hezbollah's return and control as Lebanon promised in the ceasefire agreement – is proceeding too slowly, necessitating an Israeli presence beyond the agreed 60 days. Trump's circle is pressing both sides to honor the arrangement and disapproves of Israel's stated intentions. Biden administration envoy Amos Hochstein assured new Lebanese President Joseph Aoun that Israel will comply with the terms. Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem declared earlier this week: "The resistance in Lebanon will remain immune to the American-Israeli project, maintaining its strength, readiness, and loyalty to the martyrs' blood for liberating the land and Palestine." Some in Lebanon hope Trump will take a hawkish stance toward Hezbollah.

Arab nations

American involvement in Syria across the three administrations before Trump's second term reflected a broader pattern of declining US engagement in the Middle East, characterized by limited military intervention. In Trump's second term, following Assad's removal, substantial American intervention in Syria appears unlikely, as evidenced by the new president's own words: "This is not our fight," alongside his praise for Turkish President Erdogan's handling of Syria. Trump's inner circle has expressed dissatisfaction with the Biden administration's plans to remove Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebel organization controlling Syria, from terror organization listings.

Israel maintains a clear strategic interest in continued American presence in Syria, and Trump is unlikely to take actions that would undermine this position. Moreover, even if Trump pursues an isolationist approach and seeks to withdraw all American forces from Syria, he may face resistance from both the Pentagon and Congress – similar to his first term, when domestic pressure led him to maintain an American presence in northern Syria.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) chief Abu Mohammad al-Julani in the village of Besnaya in Syria's northwestern Idlib province at the border with Turkey, on February 7, 2023. Photo credit: Omar Haj Kadour/AFP

Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has expressed interest in expanding partnership with the United States, stating: "We are committed to strategic relations with America and seek to strengthen security and economic coordination with Washington." Trump's team has recently engaged with Iraqi officials, warning that continued launches toward Israel or ongoing energy deals, smuggling, and money laundering with Iran will trigger sanctions. Recent assessments suggest the Iraqi government has grown more cautious due to Trump-related concerns, though secret coordination with Iran continues.

The Communist bloc

Earlier today, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a 90-minute video conference, discussing the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine, potential ceasefire arrangements, and relations with incoming President Trump. Following the call, officials from both nations indicated their readiness to develop ties with the US under Trump's leadership.

Throughout his campaign, Trump consistently emphasized his desire for a swift end to the Ukraine conflict, reportedly encouraging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Russian ceasefire proposals in exchange for ceding conquered territories. While Trump initially seemed aligned with the Republican Party's isolationist wing regarding Ukraine, suggesting an end to weapons shipments, recent weeks indicate security support may continue until a ceasefire is reached. Simultaneously, the Trump administration is considering lifting Russian sanctions as part of war-ending preparations. Putin congratulated Trump yesterday on his White House return, expressing readiness to discuss both Ukraine and nuclear weapons.

China's 2019 sanctions on incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio remain under review, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, responding to questions about the potential lifting of these measures.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attending a meeting held at the construction site of a shallow sea aquaculture facility in Sinpo in South Hamgyong Province, July 15, 2024. Photo credit: KCNA via KNS/AFP

Trump recently characterized North Korea as a "nuclear power" and anticipated Kim Jong Un's pleasure at his White House return. He views favorably the strong leadership demonstrated by the leaders of China, Russia, and North Korea. "I was very friendly with him," Trump recalled of Kim, "he liked me. I liked him. We got along very well. Some thought it was a terrible threat," he told reporters while signing executive orders. However, prospects for renewed US-North Korea nuclear diplomacy remain uncertain, as Pyongyang's interest in Washington's engagement may have diminished given its increasing reliance on Russia for essentials and its military support in Ukraine.

Troubled relations with neighbors

Among Trump's first post-victory announcements was a plan to impose 25% tariffs on both Canada and Mexico, expected to take effect in early February. Mexico presents particular challenges, with southern border migration averaging 2 million annually during Biden's term, alongside synthetic drug trafficking fueling a devastating opioid epidemic in American cities. If Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum fails to effectively combat the cartels – which Trump has designated as terror organizations – the returning president may adopt an even tougher stance toward his southern neighbor.

Additional countries

Trump has threatened European nations with tariffs and expressed interest in acquiring Greenland. His first-term relations with several European Union countries were notably strained. British officials have criticized world's richest man and Trump administration figure Elon Musk's involvement in local politics and promotion of "far-right conspiracies" regarding "grooming gangs."

Musk faced similar criticism in Germany over his connections with the far-right AfD party. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reached out to Trump, suggesting: "We can work together to create a decisive movement for freedom, peace, security, prosperity and economic development across the Atlantic." However, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck criticized Trump's institutional disrespect as an inappropriate model for Europe, warning that Trump's tariffs would exacerbate inflation and global geopolitical division. Habeck, architect of Germany's plan for 80% renewable electricity by 2030, called Trump's Paris Agreement withdrawal disastrous.

Reports indicate India's willingness to cooperate with Trump in repatriating approximately 18,000 illegal Indian immigrants from America.

International organizations

Trump has pressured NATO members on financial commitments while advocating for increased minimum defense spending to 5% of GDP for all alliance members.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, addressing Trump's Paris Agreement withdrawal, maintained the treaty remains "humanity's best hope," adding: "Our first priority will be swift engagement with the Trump administration, discussing shared interests and preparing for negotiations. We'll maintain pragmatism while upholding our principles." Trump has expressed interest in addressing the US-EU trade deficit through tariffs or increased energy exports.

WHO (World Health Organization) spokesperson Tariq Jasarevic expressed regret over Trump's withdrawal decision, hoping for reconsideration. German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach characterized the WHO withdrawal as severely damaging to global health crisis response capabilities.

The post From Iran to European nations: What does the world expect from Trump? appeared first on www.israelhayom.com.