The Middle East has found its own version of Baba Vanga, the blind Bulgarian mystic whose apocalyptic predictions continue making headlines three decades after her death. Mohammed Ali al-Husseini, secretary of the Arab Islamic Council in Lebanon, has become a rising star on Israeli social media with his prophecies about the deaths of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. This week, he added two more predictions: the imminent elimination of Sheikh Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's new secretary general, and an upcoming Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites. Unlike Baba Vanga, al-Husseini remains sharp and sardonic, though predicting Qassem's fate hardly requires mystical powers.

What al-Husseini didn't foresee was this week's leaked reports detailing breakthrough progress in Israel-Lebanon negotiations, led by US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein. These leaks, attributed to "a source familiar with the details" – reportedly the Israeli prime minister's spokesperson Omer Dostri's new code name – revealed that Israel had approached Washington last week requesting Hochstein's visit following his talks in Beirut. The Americans responded that Hochstein would only come "when both sides demonstrate seriousness" – an understandable position from someone who's spent a year navigating diplomatic ups and downs during wartime, reluctant to risk embarrassment just days before the US presidential election. Yet here they come – both Hochstein and Brett McGurk, the US President's Middle East envoy.

Is this optimism overshadowing professional judgment, or is genuine progress being made? Likely both. Evidence comes not only from the extensively leaked details about the emerging agreement but also from Tuesday's limited cabinet discussion convened by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address Lebanese developments.

The pace has undeniably accelerated. After a year of stalemate, there's no denying the catalyst: the IDF's dramatic operational advances in Lebanon. Ten days ago, before Hochstein's Beirut visit, the Prime Minister's Office sent the White House a framework for ending hostilities with Hezbollah and enabling displaced residents on both sides to return home. Its cornerstone provision would allow the IDF to actively enforce compliance, ensuring Hezbollah doesn't rearm or rebuild military infrastructure. This week's organized leak provided comprehensive details of the proposal.

The proposed Israeli-Lebanese agreement, backed by the US and other nations, rests on three pillars:

1. Expanded implementation of UN Resolution 1701, barring armed Hezbollah presence south of the Litani River. The Lebanese army would deploy along the border, while an enhanced UNIFIL force would include French, British, and German battalions – though Hezbollah has already rejected German participation, citing Germany's alliance with Israel.
2. A robust international monitoring and enforcement mechanism. If Hezbollah violations aren't addressed promptly by Lebanese forces and UNIFIL, Israel would retain the right to act independently against threats – similar to the Multinational Force and Observers' (MFO) role in Sinai.
3. Comprehensive prevention of Hezbollah's rearming through air, sea, and land routes. This makes any Israel-Lebanon arrangement far more complex than previous agreements, requiring regional cooperation for long-term success. No bilateral deal can survive if Hezbollah continues receiving weapons through porous Syrian borders.

Hezbollah's primary funding streams – drug trafficking and Iranian oil smuggling through Syrian ports – highlight why any border agreement must include parallel enforcement along the Lebanese-Syrian frontier. Only Russia has meaningful influence over Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime and Iranian presence in Syria. While Moscow hasn't yet entered the equation, its eventual involvement seems inevitable. Worth noting: any modifications to Resolution 1701 require Russian and Chinese approval as Security Council members. Initial stages may need mechanisms to work around this constraint.

Strategic interests survive diplomatic chill

Current Israel-Russia relations bear little resemblance to the era when Prime Minister Netanyahu boasted of his special relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Gone are the days of "special partnership" and warm birthday wishes for their October birthdays. Putin's antisemitic remarks early in the war still sting. Yet shared interests, particularly regarding Russian presence in Syria, maintain a minimal diplomatic pulse.

A few notable moments have punctuated this otherwise flat relationship. Military Secretary Roman Gofman's 24-hour Moscow visit in early September came to light during the prime minister's condolence call to the parents of Alex Lubnov, a hostage killed in Hamas captivity. The revelation of Gofman's hostage-deal mission surprised many, given strengthened Russia-Iran ties and Moscow's anger over Israel's pro-Ukraine stance.

Another significant moment occurred ten days ago when a Tu214SR aircraft – known as the Kremlin's intelligence-equipped VIP transport – landed at Ben-Gurion International Airport. Its arrival sparked speculation about senior officials discussing two Russian-citizen hostages, Alexander Tropanov and Maxim Herkin. That same day, Hamas Political Bureau Deputy Chief Mousa Abu Marzouk met Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov in Moscow to discuss hostage negotiations, highlighting the Russian captives' priority status.

Beyond hostage discussions, analysts believe Russia seeks a mediating role between Israel and Iran, concerned about their direct confrontations. Moscow worries that escalating Israeli-Iranian tensions could disrupt its supply of Iranian missiles and drones for the Ukraine conflict. However, Russia's greater concern follows Israel's recent strike on Iran, which foreign reports say neutralized Russian-made air defenses, including the S-300 and advanced S-400 systems – the pride of Russian military technology.

A Telegram channel known for high-level Russian sources, reports serious concern about the strike's impact on Russian defense systems' reputation. Intelligence sources describe Iranian officials expressing strong dissatisfaction with the systems' performance, particularly the S-400, during talks with Russian Security Council head Sergei Shoigu. Rather than commit to providing new systems, Russia offered to send experts to improve Iranian operators' capabilities.

An Israeli strategic advisor familiar with Russian air defense systems suggests an even more troubling scenario. "Besides Iran's known S-400 battery, the region's only other active system guards Russia's Hmeimim air base in Syria. It should detect any significant air activity within its extensive range, certainly a wave of over 100 aircraft. If such a force passed through Israeli, Syrian, and Iraqi airspace toward Iran," he explained, "either it went undetected, or Russia chose not to alert Iran. They'd surely have warned Tehran if they'd known."

This situation unnerves not just Iran but likely Putin too, unaccustomed to technological embarrassment. These circumstances give Russia a strong incentive to help resolve the Israel-Lebanon conflict. While the Biden administration may resist Russian involvement, another administration might prove more amenable. Regardless, such complex arrangements rarely conclude in a single agreement. The regional dimension remains inescapable.

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The IDF launched precision strikes on Sunday targeting dozens of Hezbollah command centers and financial facilities across Beirut and southern Lebanon. These sites were used to store and manage funds that financed terrorist operations against Israel. The primary targets were branches of the Al-Qard Al-Hasan Association, commonly known as "Hezbollah's Bank." The operation also included strikes near Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport where, according to foreign sources, Hezbollah maintains facilities for financial operations and weapons smuggling.

This assault on Al-Qard Al-Hasan's infrastructure signals a new phase in the IDF's hybrid warfare strategy against Hezbollah, combining tactical military strikes with efforts to dismantle the organization's financial network.

Breaking with standard protocol, the IDF spokesperson issued a detailed explanation alongside the routine civilian warning in Arabic: "Substantial portions of Hezbollah's terrorist activities are funded from Iran's state budget; these funds finance terrorist operations, including military buildup, weapons storage facilities, launch positions, and personnel salaries. These funds flow through Al-Qard Al-Hasan branches, which serve as the official front for the organization's terrorist assets. Given the association's role in financing Hezbollah's terrorist actions against Israel, therefore the IDF has decided to strike these terrorist infrastructures."

Founded in 1982, Al-Qard Al-Hasan began as a charitable organization offering interest-free loans to Lebanon's Shiite community. It has since grown into a financial network with 32 branches across Lebanon and the Middle East, operating a full banking service including deposits and loans – all without official Lebanese banking licenses. The institution gained particular traction among working-class Lebanese by accepting gold jewelry as loan collateral.

As Lebanon's economy crumbled, Al-Qard Al-Hasan's influence grew significantly. Research by Dr Emmanuel Ottolenghi, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), shows the bank's lending surged from $76 million in 2007 to nearly half a billion dollars by 2019. All this while the Lebanese pound was in free fall, the local banking system was collapsing, and Lebanon's population was sinking into depths of poverty and hardship.

This financial crisis catalyzed Hezbollah's rise to unprecedented political and social influence. The organization leveraged its unique position – a terrorist group with its own banking system, steady Iranian funding, and revenue from both legal and illegal global operations including drug trafficking, diamond trade, and used car sales. With stable reserves in gold and foreign currency, this enabled Hezbollah to finance not only terrorist operations but also to pay its operatives regularly and maintain a social network of hospitals, clinics, schools, and kindergartens serving the Shiite community. This strategy secured both popular support and territorial control across Lebanon.

A cyber breach four years ago exposed Al-Qard Al-Hasan's Iranian connections and revealed account details of 10,000 Hezbollah military operatives and 18,000 civilian members in various Lebanese banks.

The current strikes serve a dual purpose: beyond disrupting Hezbollah's financing and destabilizing its military operations, they aim to break the financial dependence of Lebanese citizens on the organization. It sends a message that Hezbollah is no longer the solution to their hardships – rather, those who tie their fate to Hezbollah's bank are risking their money's loss.

The timing of these strikes, coinciding with Special Envoy Amos Hochstein's visit to Lebanon, may create diplomatic opportunities. Hochstein is scheduled to meet with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and Lebanese Army Commander General Michel Aoun. Lebanese media reports indicate he brings a revised framework for implementing Resolution 1701, including new enforcement mechanisms.

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When General Michael Kurilla arrives in Israel, it's clear to everyone that the situation is far from simple. But with him comes a sigh of relief. The head of CENTCOM, commander of the US Central Command, General Michael Erik Kurilla , has proven himself a true friend and vital asset to Israel over the past year. He was among the first to arrive and understand the broader strategic implications of the Oct. 7 massacre. In those crucial hours, when it seemed that Israel's future hung in the balance, he recommended US President Joe Biden to deploy aircraft carriers and strike units, which spread a regional defense network around Israel during its darkest hour.

He was also here for the preparations and coordination in building the regional coalition ahead of Iran's on April 14, when for the first time in the history of the conflict, Iran fired hundreds of missiles and drones toward Israel. Over the last two months, he has visited no less than four times. Two visits in the first week of August, immediately after the elimination of Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil, and then another assessment visit, in preparation for what in hindsight turned out to be the IDF's preparations for entering Lebanon. General Kurilla then met with IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and visited the Northern Command's operations center, where Major General Ori Gordin presented the IDF's operational plans for Lebanon.

At the beginning of the week, the American general arrived here again, against the backdrop of tense anticipation for Israel's response to Iran's latest ballistic missile attack. The IDF, as usual, was laconic in describing the purpose of the visit. The IDF Spokesperson used the standard wording, saying that "General Michael Erik Kurilla conducted a situation assessment with the Chief of Staff," and reported that "the General's visit dealt with the security issues on the agenda, with emphasis on Iran and the northern front," and that "the IDF will continue to deepen its connection with the US military out of commitment to strengthening regional stability and coordination between the armies."

But this concise report hides a great drama behind it. Kurilla arrived in Israel to coordinate the response to the Iranian attack, which included nearly 200 ballistic missiles and caused greater damage compared to the April 14 attack. This time, according to foreign sources, there was a significant increase in the level of accuracy, with missiles landing near sensitive sites.

General Kurilla's mission was even more sensitive and complex than previous rounds of consultations. Throughout the past year, the American position has been to do everything possible to prevent the expansion of the war in Gaza. This has caused severe friction with the administration surrounding a series of vital actions in Gaza, from population evacuation, through demands for massive humanitarian aid, to the fierce debates over entering Rafah and later entering Lebanon. This is despite the vital need to clear the villages of southern Lebanon of Hezbollah forces, to allow the Israeli residents of the north to safely return to their homes.

Today, Israel is also operating in Lebanon and is determined to respond forcefully to the ballistic missile attack. The White House agrees that a response must come, but strongly opposes hitting Iran's nuclear or oil facilities. A senior State Department official told CNN this week that Israel has not promised the Biden administration that striking Iranian nuclear facilities is off the table, adding that "we hope and expect to see some wisdom in addition to strength, but there are no guarantees." According to the senior official, "The US has been working for almost a year to prevent the conflict from turning into a larger war. So far it has done so, but now we are on the edge."

In terms of the possible implications of attacking Iranian oil facilities, the Americans really don't like this idea. The fear of a global economic crisis and a spike in oil prices a month before the presidential elections is the White House's number one nightmare these days. Biden addressed the issue this week, saying, "Israel hasn't decided what to do about the attack yet." According to him, "We are in contact with them, and in their place, I would think about an alternative to attacking oil facilities. Israel will not make a decision immediately. The main thing right now is to avoid a full-scale war, and to mobilize allies to stop this."

This is now the main role of General Kurilla, who has already proven himself as a first-rate soldier and diplomat, in mobilizing a regional and international coalition to halt the Iranian attack in April. Saudi Arabia and Jordan then worked together with countries like Britain and France to intercept the missile attack on Israel. In many ways, he is reminiscent of General Norman Schwarzkopf, fondly remembered from the First Gulf War; he too headed the US Central Command, and thanks to his diplomatic skills, he was successful in commanding the international coalition forces during the war against Iraq in 1991.

People, partners, innovation

So who is General Kurilla, and like General Schwarzkopf before him, is this the peak of his career, the mission that will induct him into the hall of fame of American commanders who influenced history? Michael Erik Kurilla, 58, was born in Minnesota. By education, he is an aeronautical engineer, and a graduate of West Point, the famous US military academy. During his military career, he served in various roles in Haiti, South Korea, and Italy. He participated in the American invasion of Panama in the First Gulf War and also spent time in Bosnia and Afghanistan.

His first acquaintance with the Middle East was during the First Gulf War. In 2004, he came to serve in Mosul, which was then an al-Qaida stronghold. Michael Yon, a combat correspondent who accompanied Kurilla and his team in Mosul, described him in an in-depth article as a revered commander with high military and human standards, beloved by his subordinates. Kurilla, Yon recounted, also knew how to create a good atmosphere and good relations with the Iraqi authorities. Despite the obvious danger, he used to wander around the city, talk to merchants and shop owners, and drink tea in their company, not only to feel the pulse but also to build relationships. In 2004, during a tour in the narrow alleys of Mosul, his force encountered a car with three al-Qaida terrorists. During the ensuing firefight, Kurilla was shot in both legs and his arm, but continued to manage the battle and shout orders while lying in the alley. For his performance in this battle, he received the highest combat award, the Purple Heart.

Kurilla was evacuated by reinforcements that arrived on the scene and transferred to the hospital. Not far from him laid the wounded terrorist who had shot him, who just two weeks earlier had been released from Abu Ghraib prison in what's known as the revolving door method. But Kurilla didn't say a word. What mainly concerned him was that the command might call his wife Paige and alarm her unnecessarily. So he asked for a mobile phone to tell her himself that it was just a superficial wound, and that he was fine. If any of this reminds you of a familiar reality in another country where General Kurilla has been spending extra hours in the past year, it's not a coincidence. This combat experience, in which Kurilla learned first-hand about the Middle Eastern reality, certainly helps him understand the challenges facing his current interlocutors in the Kirya (IDF headquarters).

Mosul may have helped Kurilla understand what Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Chief of Staff Halevi, and the commanders in the field are facing. But this was not enough to bridge the policy gaps between Jerusalem and Washington regarding humanitarian aid in Gaza, the Americans' distrust of the IDF's ability to produce an orderly evacuation of the Gaza population, or the battle on Rafah.

However, the war in Gaza has led Israel in recent months to deal with much more complex scenarios with strategic implications far beyond its borders. These are scenarios that the Americans wanted to avoid from the outset, come what may. They include opening a wide northern front and uncontrolled deterioration into a regional war, one that requires a revered commander who will deal with much more than the micro-management of a field encounter. And General Kurilla has certainly proven that he has what it takes. Since 2004, he has grown in CENTCOM and reached the position of Chief of Staff. In 2022, with the retirement of General Kenneth F. McKenzie who then headed CENTCOM, he was chosen by President Biden to take his place. As part of his role, he is responsible for 21 countries in an area stretching from Israel to Pakistan including 600 million people. He spends about half his time at the command headquarters in Tampa, Florida. The rest of the time he moves from country to country in his command area.

In a congressional hearing ahead of his appointment to the position, Kurilla warned that Iran's military capabilities "are expanding rapidly," in ways that threaten US military bases in the region, its allies, and international trade. The Islamic Republic with its "malign behavior," he said, is the number one destabilizing factor in the Middle East. He warned that Iran and its militia network "exploit instability across the region," and that Iran's goal is to remove American forces from the region. Although Tehran has refrained from escalating to a large conflict, the risk of miscalculation "remains high," the senior general clarified.

Despite his clear positions regarding Iran, Kurilla expressed implicit support for renewing the nuclear deal during the hearing. "I support any enforceable agreement that will limit Tehran's ability to obtain a nuclear weapon," he said. But at the same time, he acknowledged that Tehran might use the funds released to it as a result of the sanctions relief to support its proxy forces and produce terrorism beyond its borders.

In March 2023, Kurilla returned for another congressional hearing, where he said that Iran remains the main destabilizing factor in the region. "Over time, we identify rapid progress in Iranian military capability," he said, noting that Iran of 2023 has exponential military capability compared to its capabilities five years ago.

In that hearing, Kurilla listed five main points: Iran holds the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, with thousands of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles; it also holds the largest and strongest UAV force in the region; Iran's huge proxy forces, with deep resources, spread instability throughout the region and threaten our regional partners; Iran continues to enrich and stockpile uranium far above what is needed for commercial use, and it can enrich uranium much faster than it could even two years ago; and a nuclear-armed Iran would change the Middle East overnight, and forever.

In this context, the general added an important point, distinguishing the US from other powers. "Our partners are our nation's comparative advantage over competitors like China and Russia," he said. "While we nurture deep and ongoing partnerships that can serve as a defense against threats in the region while deterring Iran from its most destructive behavior, China sees its partners only as customers." He concluded: "Deterring Iran, opposing violent extremist organizations, and competing strategically is what we do. People, partners, innovation – that's our way."

A magnificent concert

If in Mosul Kurilla proved his capabilities as an operative, in his role as CENTCOM commander he took his education as an aeronautical engineer and his personal and interpersonal skills as a manager of large systems and as a diplomat, to weave the quiet regional alliance created under his command between Israel and Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. Some of these quiet moves were revealed during Knesset Member Benny Gantz's visit to Bahrain during his tenure as Defense Minister. Much of this work was kept under wraps, but one can certainly be impressed by the good and close relationships that have developed between him and the security leadership of Israel, through observing the abundance of photographs even in the era of the previous Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi, and later under the command of Herzi Halevi. In these photographs, including from the last briefing in the Northern Command's operations center, one cannot help but notice the seriousness but also the ease and friendship reflected in the body language of Kurilla and the IDF's top brass.

From Israel's perspective, the main contribution of the senior American general to its security is what is called in professional ranks "Kurilla's umbrella," which Israeli citizens were exposed to its enormous advantages first in April, and now during Iran's ballistic missiles attack on the eve of Rosh Hashanah. Kurilla's main contribution as head of CENTCOM is in harnessing technologies and operational capabilities to build a command that maximizes the most sophisticated tools available to it.

Leading this technological effort is a young and brilliant woman that Kurilla insisted on bringing to CENTCOM. Skylar Moore serves as CENTCOM's Chief Technology Officer (CTO). In 2013, Moore taught at a women's boarding school in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan. Not the most conventional job. From there she made a meteoric journey. In her previous role, Moore was a senior advisor to the Senate Armed Services Committee, where she dealt with issues such as technology legislation, funding and adoption of 5G technology, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and biotechnology. In 2021, she made it to Forbes magazine's 30 Under 30 list. This is the talented individual that Kurilla insisted on bringing to CENTCOM, and succeeded.

The result is the magnificent collaboration of the coalition formed under his command, which includes the most advanced US systems with satellite assistance, and which together with European powers and countries in the region joined twice in a magnificent concert of action to defend the territory of Israel. Now the third time is approaching when Israel may need CENTCOM's capabilities to give Iran a decisive response to its latest attack. The US fully supports Israel, but this week it made it clear that its part will only be in defense, and that it opposes attacking Iranian nuclear or oil facilities.

This war game holds enormous risks for both Israel and Iran. Israel must succeed in the attack on Iran. Anything less than surprising, not to say brilliant, could be considered a failed attack that could accelerate the Iranian nuclear program, or retroactively create a reality that would lead to some kind of economic agreement between the US and Iran in exchange for "Iranian technological restraint."

The current administration has made its position very clear. General Michael Erik Kurilla is their man on the ground. In a month, presidential elections will be held in the US. In this time frame, anything can happen, and nothing is over until it's over.

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