A fundamental condition for ending the lockdown is a significant decrease in the morbidity rate. Unfortunately, that is not the case at the moment. We will know whether this lockdown is just as effective as the previous ones if over the next few days we see a 10% decrease in the number of daily new cases. 

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Morbidity rates significantly differ from city to city. In many cities, morbidity rates are high, but vaccination rates are low. Unfortunately, the ultra-Orthodox community is lagging behind in the rate of inoculation compared to the secular sector. In terms of morbidity rates, the situation is the exact opposite, as ultra-Orthodox cities rank highest in the number of people infected. The fact that Haredi leaders have started calling on the community to get vaccinated and adhere to lockdown rules is a good sign. 

At the same time, no significant vaccine effects have been observed yet in the general public, but this is evident from the surveys of the medical staff that were vaccinated at the end of December. According to our models, a significant impact is expected to be seen starting this weekend, around January21, in the form of a decrease in the number of critical patients that arrive at the hospital each day. 

The vaccination campaign is crucial for preventing another outbreak. A gradual exit from the lockdown alone will not be efficient, as we know that the relatively controlled exit of the second lockdown did not prevent another outbreak. 

The vaccination campaign will bring about the opening of industries, especially the education system. That is why the inoculation of the teaching staff is so important, and the vaccination of 10-12 graders can be prioritized in order for them to finish their studies properly and succeed in their matriculation tests. 

The education system could be one of the first ones to open, as it has demonstrated excellent ability in detecting the virus and halting infection chains, and the chances of infection in classrooms are very low. 

Still, there are some uncertainties about the vaccine. The main question is whether someone who has been inoculated can infect others. We need to exit the current lockdown in a controlled and gradual manner, even with the success of the vaccination campaign.

Lastly, another piece of good news is the strict guidelines for visitors entering the country via the airport, through testing and quarantining those who arrive. It is very difficult to determine the effects on non-compliance of those who enter the country on the spread of the virus. Still, we can pinpoint critical moments at which Ben Gurion airport had a negative impact. 

The first wave of infections came from Europe, then the United States, and led to significant changes in infections. The disregard was also a catalyst for the wave of infections in October when Israelis returned from Turkey. 

It is clear that extreme caution is required at Ben Gurion airport, as all governments that have controlled flight entries with tests and quarantines succeeded in preventing the virus from entering their countries. 

Every country that wants to take control of the virus must do this. 

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The coronavirus morbidity rate in Israel is on the rise, so much so that immediate action must be taken.

But that doesn't mean we have to enter a lockdown just yet.

Although Israel has seen a 5% increase in new cases each day, and the number of people hospitalized with the virus has also increased at the same rate as the increase in daily diagnosed infections, the situation is not as dire as it was when the government announced it would impose a second lockdown in September.

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At this point, infections appear to be happening at a local level. There are only 40 communities with populations of around 500,000 where the average morbidity rate this week was higher than five new cases for every 10,000 residents. In Jerusalem, the community with the highest infection rate in the country, the average was two new cases for every 10,000 residents last week, compared to the Druze village of Majdal Shams, where an average of 18 new cases was diagnosed for every 10,000 this week.

But the situation in Jerusalem is deceiving because the infection rate is very high in some neighborhoods that are situated right alongside neighborhoods where the morbidity rate is low. An evaluation of the city two weeks ago indicates what we are seeing is a spillover effect, meaning the situation in Jerusalem, in general, is deteriorating. This phenomenon is characteristic of the entire country in recent weeks. It seems the move to isolate centers of morbidity has proved unsuccessful. In the Haifa, Beer Sheva, and Nazareth areas, authorities have seen a "wandering" of morbidity of sorts among cities with day-to-day trade or labor ties.

The deteriorating morbidity rate and the failed attempts to get a hold of centers of morbidity are the reasons action must be taken now. The range of options is not particularly wide, but the nature of this local spread calls for the focused treatment of these localities through local closures and mass testing of residents. Mass testing in particular has been shown to reduce morbidity rates in many countries around the world.

Another option for bringing down morbidity rates is to examine how different cities in Switzerland are operating during the pandemic. While the education system remains open in both Geneva, where the rate of reproduction is 0.5, and Zurich, where it is 0.9, in Geneva, employees have been encouraged to work from home, and nonessential commerce is forbidden. In Israel, we must also consider limiting commerce to places of residence to ensure reduced connectivity in commerce and reduced congestion, as well as encouraging people to work from home.

Above all else, we must emphasize that the steps an individual must take to avoid infection are incredibly simple: avoid large, crowded gatherings, in particular in small spaces; wear a mask; and as soon as you develop any symptoms, get tested and stay home. The actions we take to protect ourselves from infection have the potential to significantly decrease the spread of the virus at this frustrating time when just as vaccines are set to arrive, morbidity rates are on the rise.

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