A fundamental condition for ending the lockdown is a significant decrease in the morbidity rate. Unfortunately, that is not the case at the moment. We will know whether this lockdown is just as effective as the previous ones if over the next few days we see a 10% decrease in the number of daily new cases.
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Morbidity rates significantly differ from city to city. In many cities, morbidity rates are high, but vaccination rates are low. Unfortunately, the ultra-Orthodox community is lagging behind in the rate of inoculation compared to the secular sector. In terms of morbidity rates, the situation is the exact opposite, as ultra-Orthodox cities rank highest in the number of people infected. The fact that Haredi leaders have started calling on the community to get vaccinated and adhere to lockdown rules is a good sign.
At the same time, no significant vaccine effects have been observed yet in the general public, but this is evident from the surveys of the medical staff that were vaccinated at the end of December. According to our models, a significant impact is expected to be seen starting this weekend, around January21, in the form of a decrease in the number of critical patients that arrive at the hospital each day.
The vaccination campaign is crucial for preventing another outbreak. A gradual exit from the lockdown alone will not be efficient, as we know that the relatively controlled exit of the second lockdown did not prevent another outbreak.
The vaccination campaign will bring about the opening of industries, especially the education system. That is why the inoculation of the teaching staff is so important, and the vaccination of 10-12 graders can be prioritized in order for them to finish their studies properly and succeed in their matriculation tests.
The education system could be one of the first ones to open, as it has demonstrated excellent ability in detecting the virus and halting infection chains, and the chances of infection in classrooms are very low.
Still, there are some uncertainties about the vaccine. The main question is whether someone who has been inoculated can infect others. We need to exit the current lockdown in a controlled and gradual manner, even with the success of the vaccination campaign.
Lastly, another piece of good news is the strict guidelines for visitors entering the country via the airport, through testing and quarantining those who arrive. It is very difficult to determine the effects on non-compliance of those who enter the country on the spread of the virus. Still, we can pinpoint critical moments at which Ben Gurion airport had a negative impact.
The first wave of infections came from Europe, then the United States, and led to significant changes in infections. The disregard was also a catalyst for the wave of infections in October when Israelis returned from Turkey.
It is clear that extreme caution is required at Ben Gurion airport, as all governments that have controlled flight entries with tests and quarantines succeeded in preventing the virus from entering their countries.
Every country that wants to take control of the virus must do this.
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