According to the official, Tehran faces only difficult choices because it risks a harsh Israeli counterattack and simply cannot absorb more military losses like those sustained during the 12-Day War. The official noted that despite this restraint, some voices within Iran still believe a response to Israel's actions is necessary, perhaps executed by the Houthis or through a terrorist attack targeting Jewish or Israeli interests in Europe or Latin America.

This cautious assessment stands in contrast to the combative statements coming from Tehran, even before the death of Hezbollah Chief of Staff Haytham 'Ali Tabataba'i, and earlier reports that Iran had largely replenished the surface-to-surface missile stockpile lost during Operation Rising Lion. For example, a report in The New York Times disclosed that Iran is enhancing its air defense network and planning for a massive launch capability of up to 2,000 simultaneous missiles should another conflict erupt. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps previously published a statement declaring, "The Axis of Resistance and Hezbollah have the right to respond at the appropriate time, and it will be a painful blow".

Esmaeil Baghaei, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, stated that Israel's behavior is worsening regional security and will result in serious consequences. Though Iran is working to rebuild its air defense capabilities – which were nearly destroyed in the war – and reportedly received aid from China, Israeli estimates suggest this will not significantly challenge Israel's absolute control of Iranian airspace.

The critical decision regarding a Hezbollah response rests with the ayatollahs in Tehran, not Beirut. Hezbollah's standing has suffered significantly following the losses incurred during the pager operation and the elimination of its leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah, who ranks second only to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran's hesitation is driven by multiple factors : First, since Israel delivered severe blows to Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran itself, another conflict of that magnitude is unacceptable. Second, the international environment, marked by full US support and partial European support for Israel, eliminates the possibility of helpful diplomatic maneuvers. Third, Iran is experiencing a particularly dire economic and infrastructural crisis, characterized by rampant inflation, currency collapse, a severe fuel shortage, frequent power outages, and a water crisis. In fact, the severity of the water crisis led President Masoud Pezeshkian to propose evacuating Tehran and relocating to a temporary capital.

Tehran is currently in its sixth consecutive drought year and recorded its driest autumn of the century, reporting "zero drops of rain". After the first 55 days of the current water year, water reserves had hit a 60-year low.

Contacted via social media, S., a Tehran resident, described having running water for only a few hours each day, dangerously poor water quality causing widespread diseases and infections, and mineral water sold at exorbitant prices in stores and markets. The resident added that while authorities have discussed bringing in water tankers from the north, no substantial action has been taken.

Northern Iran is simultaneously battling a major ecological catastrophe – a fire that has been burning for weeks in the Hyrcanian Forests, a "World Heritage Site" and the world's oldest living ecosystem. Iranian forestry experts are placing blame on the government, alleging negligence and intentional, malicious damage to the forest lands. The fire has resulted in large clouds of smoke, ash, and soot, which are causing severe air pollution.

This compounding crisis has given rise to the idea of Iran's "quiet disintegration" as a functional state. Sogand Fakheri, an Iran Desk analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, said that "quiet disintegration" is a concept frequently discussed in Iranian domestic media.

"However, it seems the disintegration is not quiet, the government is not functioning, and the repeated focus on war propaganda and the 12-Day War either ignores or at least belittles the situation in the country," she elaborated, adding, "The fires and the funds being wasted in the wrong places also hurt the citizens' standard of living and even put them in real danger." As economic, social, and environmental hardships continue to mount, internal reports of local distress and protests surface from Iran, but these are often suppressed from the wider public due to media censorship and restrictions. This raises the question of whether the institutional and social decay is happening "quietly" because it is not being fully expressed – or because parts of the system are struggling to recognize it in real-time.

Sagiv Asulin, a senior researcher at the JCFA and an Iran expert, accounted for the contrast between the aggressive rhetoric and Iran's domestic paralysis : "The Iranians are the world champions in word games, negotiation, and haggling in the Middle Eastern and global bazaar, so there is a big difference between what they say and what will materialize. They are willing to warm the atmosphere with belligerent statements, but in their current condition, they might play a game on the edge, but nothing beyond that, and therefore the answer to the question of whether they will initiate an actual attack – is almost certainly no".

Asulin confirmed that Iran is working hard to rebuild its air defense and missile stockpiles because missiles are the most effective weapons they have, especially since the nuclear project was severely damaged. The researcher added that Iran recognizes this as Israel's soft underbelly and plans to reinforce it for the next conflict.

Ultimately, both Asulin and the senior official agree that Iran intends to delay the next conflict for as long as possible to allow itself time to recover, wait for more favorable conditions, and improve its readiness.

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Yet Israel managed to surprise, delivering a preemptive strike that severely damaged Iran's capabilities and eliminated many senior commanders in the army and Revolutionary Guards who had been involved up to their necks in attacks on Israel over the past two years. Through this, Israel gained an unprecedented opening advantage in the confrontation awaiting us with Iran in the coming days – exactly like Operation Focus, which opened the Six-Day War and during which Israel destroyed all the air forces of Arab states, thereby securing air superiority and victory in battle.

On October 7, Iran incited its proxies throughout the region against us, starting with Hamas in Gaza, through Hezbollah and ending with the Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq, in an attempt to bring down Israel. But the Iranian attempt failed miserably. Its proxies were defeated in Gaza and Lebanon, and Iran was even expelled from Syria. In direct confrontation rounds between Tehran and Israel, the Iranians had the upper hand, and only Israeli restraint prevented the delivery of painful knockout blows to Iran itself.

So Iran enters the war with Israel when it is weaker and more vulnerable than ever – but it's still too early to assess whether the Iranian tiger is a paper tiger, as turned out to be the case with Hezbollah in hindsight. After all, Iran is a large country with tens of millions of inhabitants, which for four decades has built an arsenal of missiles and drones without interference, so the confrontation with it could be prolonged and difficult.

Arab states issued polite condemnations of the Israeli attack, but one cannot help but notice the open joy, and especially the schadenfreude – at Iran's misfortune – in reports on Arab television channels. These covered the scenes of destruction in Iran with great delight, while emphasizing the Israeli surprise, and especially how much the attack proves that Iran is a vulnerable, weak country penetrated by Israeli intelligence, which cannot defend itself or its senior officials.

The Israeli move demonstrates that the US has not yet abandoned the region – after all, it was carried out with Washington's approval and support. It also restores hope for establishing a regional defense alliance – today it's clearer than ever to Gulf states whom they can rely on in times of trouble.

The Iranian regime faces difficult days ahead. Iran finds itself in a position of military weakness, and also in regional and international isolation. One can assume that in the short term we will witness mobilization of the Iranian street behind the ayatollahs in Tehran, but in the long term – this is undoubtedly another nail in the coffin of the bloody regime ruling the country, which has been revealed as unable to defend Iran and as bringing disaster after disaster upon it through its policies.

In the past quarter-century, Iran has dragged the entire region into a bloodbath of terror and violence, through aggressive moves and building a network of proxies throughout the Middle East, which tried to harm Israel – but also undermined stability throughout the Arab world, in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Gulf states.

The blow suffered by Iran's proxies restored stability to Lebanon and Syria – but this is not enough, of course. This is a test for Israel and regional states, but it is primarily a test for the US. The blow that Israel delivered alone could have been a death blow to the Iranian regime if the US had joined us, but Iran's responses might force the US to join the campaign. And the goal of such a campaign, which has been imposed on the region and the world by Iran, must be clear – not just preventing enrichment or eliminating the nuclear project – but eliminating the regime in Iran, as the only way to ensure peace and stability in the region.

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The Trump administration is deploying an unprecedented amount of US military might to bases in the Middle East, near Iran and Yemen. The military buildup is backed by "maximum sanctions" against Iran and an explicit US deadline of two months for a "deal" to end Iran's nuclear bomb and ballistic missile programs.

Without a deal, President Donald Trump has said, "There will be bombing." US National Security Advisor Mike Walz has specified that Iran must "hand over and give up" all elements of its nuclear program, including missiles, weaponization, and uranium enrichment.

Iran is clearly nervous, which is a good thing, but also defiant, which was to be expected. "Supreme Leader" Ayatollah Khamenei said last month that Tehran would not be bullied into talks with the US by "excessive demands and threats," and he rejected direct negotiations. He threatened a "harsh blow" if the US attacked Iran.

The commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard air force this week made the Iranian threat more explicit: "The US has 10 bases and 50,000 troops in the region… If you live in a glass house, you shouldn't throw stones," he warned. Khamenei's adviser and former parliament speaker Ali Larijani emphasized that if the US bombs Iran's nuclear facilities, Iranian "public opinion" will pressure the government to "change its policy" and pursue nuclear weapons.

But of course, Iran is already rapidly approaching full nuclear military status, with uranium enrichment and bomb-assembly facilities buried in underground bunkers – irrespective of Trump's threats. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has enriched uranium to almost-bomb-ready levels (60% and 84%, which are very close to the 90% level necessary for a nuclear weapon), with its stock of refined uranium hexafluoride growing by 92.5 kilograms in the past quarter alone, to 274.8 kilograms. By IAEA standards, this is sufficient for an estimated six nuclear weapons, with the final sprint achievable within months.

No country in the world has enriched uranium to 60%, as Iran has, without building nuclear weapons – so Iran's intentions are clear. Getting Iran to abandon this path (as well as its massive ballistic missile array) will be difficult, if not impossible. I am doubtful that even the emerging credible threat of US (and Israeli) military action will do the trick. Ultimately, Washington will have to act on its threat, and this will have to be soon.

To this end, the US has deployed fighter squadrons, stealth bombers, munitions, and Patriot and THAAD air defense batteries to the region along with two aircraft carrier strike groups. US military cargo flights into the region rose by 50% last month, with at least 140 heavy transport aircraft landing in Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan. An A-10 ground-attack squadron was deployed to Jordan; stealth F-35s were sent to Saudi Arabia, and at least six B-2 stealth bombers have been stationed on the Indian Ocean island base of Diego Garcia – which is roughly a third of the US Air Force's B-2 fleet. (Diego Garcia was previously used as a launch point for bombing missions in Afghanistan and Iraq. The island lies about 4,000 kilometers from Iran and Yemen – close enough to support a large-scale strike on either, while remaining beyond the reach of their drones and ballistic missiles.)

And US Central Command chief Gen. Michael Kurilla was in Israel this week once again for meetings with senior Israeli military officials.

There is more to be done. Richard Goldberg of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies in Washington has published a manifesto for "maximum pressure" on Iran that goes far beyond "maximum sanctions." This includes an end to all sorts of waivers and licenses that facilitate Iranian world trade, rigorous sanctions enforcement (mainly targeting Iran's oil trade with China), multilateral sanctions on third-party countries (including European countries) that facilitate Iranian banking and Iranian-backed radical Islamist NGOs, and more.

Barak Seener of the Henry Jackson Society in the UK argues for active "destabilization" of the Iranian regime. This includes cyberattacks on Iran's critical infrastructure, as well as targeting Iran's oil infrastructure, including refining and processing facilities and domestic distribution pipelines and terminals. He also advocates the targeting of IRGC bases and personnel on Iranian or foreign soil.

Gregg Roman of the Middle East Forum has published a comprehensive strategy for democratic transition in Iran, which needs to be put in place even before a strike on Iran. This involves an aggressive information campaign, amplifying internal pressures backing opposition ethnic groups, leveraging regional cooperation networks, dismantling Iran's regional proxy network (something that Israel already is tackling), and transition planning with post-regime scenarios.

These efforts should include exposing the regime's repression and human rights abuses and carrying out political warfare against the regime: Constant criticism of its economic failings and brutality, support for Iran's neighbors if Iran threatens them, and aid (overt and covert) for efforts by Iranians to protest a regime most of them clearly loathe.

In a recent, thoughtful Foreign Affairs essay, Elliott Abrams reminds us of the overall purpose of all this over Trump's four-year second presidency: To create a Middle East where Washington's friends are far stronger and its enemies far weaker than ever before. Israel's recent successful actions against Hamas and Hezbollah (Iran's proxies) and its crushing blows on Iran's air defenses create an opportunity for Washington in this regard.

"The United States now has a chance to keep Iran and its allies off balance. Because the only true solution to the problem of the Islamic Republic is its demise, the United States and allies should mount a pressure campaign on behalf of the Iranian people –who wish for the regime's end more fervently than any foreigner," Elliott Abrams wrote. Even if Trump decides to negotiate a bit with Iran before moving to military action, Abrams asserts that it is possible to engage in practical negotiations with an enemy state without losing the sharp edge of ideological combat.

Recall US President Ronald Reagan's relations with the Soviet Union. "An American president can talk to an authoritarian adversary without sacrificing moral clarity and without dropping support for people yearning to be free of a repressive regime and often demonstrating in the streets, despite the risks."

Abrams continues: "The United States should always view such negotiations as a tactic in the long struggle for a peaceful Middle East – a goal that cannot be reached until the Islamic Republic is replaced by a government that is legitimate in the eyes of the Iranian people and that abandons its terrorist proxies, its hatred of the United States and of Israel, and its desire to dominate other countries in the region. Until that day, the military presence of the United States must not diminish..."

To which I add that Trump's plans for "winning" in the global struggle against China and his hopes for a reset in relations with Russia depend to a great extent on proving his mettle in confrontation with Iran.

If Trump's bluster against Iran ends up in another Obama-style soft deal that just kicks the Iranian nuclear can down the road – then Trump's presidency is finished, at least in international affairs. He will never be the "transformational" president with "historic" achievements that he so explicitly wants to be.

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Iran's presidential election has ended in a runoff, with voter turnout plummeting to a record-low 40%, signaling growing disillusionment with the Islamic Republic's political system. As the country prepares for a second round of voting, Western hopes for a reformist victory appear increasingly illusory while the regime continues to consolidate power both domestically and regionally.

The inconclusive first round marks another blow to the regime's legitimacy. Voter participation fell to just 40%, down from 48% in 2021 and 73% in 2017. No candidate secured a majority, forcing a runoff.

The Iranian public's disenchantment is palpable. All candidates answer to the de facto ruler, with three hailing from the reform-averse conservative faction. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's political theater, which truly dictates foreign and security policies, has lost its veneer of authenticity. Social media even joked that Khamenei cast his vote for his son Mojtaba, his presumed successor.

Yet despite waning enthusiasm, the turnout suggests that while the republic's internal legitimacy falters, the government's grip remains firm. A significant base still accepts the status quo. This is bolstered by the Revolutionary Guards, 150,000 to 200,000 strong, alongside the Basij, a civilian auxiliary force millions strong, tasked with quashing dissent.

Western powers, however, cling to electoral hopes. Many policymakers root for reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian, seen as potentially amenable to a new nuclear deal. The US and EU persist in seeking "peace in our time" with a regime known for its brutality and corruption. Western diplomats might tout a postponed nuclear threat as a victory, even as Tehran advances its conventional military capabilities.

Pezeshkian could play the perfect role in an Iranian charm offensive. The physician-turned-politician advocates for Western engagement to boost Iran's economy – music to Washington and Brussels' ears. For Khamenei, presenting a palatable political figure is strategically convenient, especially after April's brazen attack on Israel. A veneer of moderation could soothe both international tensions and domestic unrest.

This development underscores the election's limited impact. The July 5 runoff won't determine Iran's true leader. In reality, the victor will simply become Khamenei's highest-ranking official, as the Supreme Leader retains ultimate control.

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Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's representative in the country's Southern Khorasan Province called the Jews humanity's greatest problem in a public address earlier this year.

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"Consider the most difficult problem for Islam and humanity as a whole. This is corroborated by documents. The most difficult problem has been the Jews. … They are more evil than Satan," said Ayatollah Alireza Ebadi.

In a public address aired on Iran's Khorasan Jonoobi TV on May 7, Ebadi said that the Jews' ultimate goal was to pillage the entire world.

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"They [the Jews] have taken control of the world in a technical way. They give particular attention to military warfare, propaganda warfare, and psychological warfare. They spread doubt and [wage] cultural warfare. This is how they can achieve their main goal of pillaging the world," he said.

Ebadi went on to claim "the Zionists" controlled France and appointed the US president.

Featured on JNS.org, this article was first published by MEMRI.org.

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Haniyeh reportedly ended the letter with a wish for the realization of Khamenei's call for the "liberation of Palestine and the victory of the Palestinians over their enemies," according to Iran's Fars News Agency.

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In July, deputy head of Hamas's political branch, Saleh al-Arouri, visited Khamenei in Tehran and delivered another letter from Haniyeh to the Iranian leader.

Meanwhile, Iran said that Hezbollah's missile attack on IDF forces on the northern border was a retaliatory move and that its aim was to safeguard Lebanon's interests, Reuters reported.

"Hezbollah enjoys significant popular support in Lebanon … the Zionist regime's [Israel] punishment by Hezbollah was a reciprocal measure that displayed the resistance front's determination to counter threats," said Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, according to Iran state news agency IRNA.

Reprinted with permission from JNS.org.

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The Swedish operator of a British-flagged oil tanker seized by Iran in the Gulf last week said it had been able to speak to crew members and all 23 of them were safe.

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"We had direct contact with the crew on board the vessel last night by telephone and they're all okay and in good health and they're getting good cooperation with the Iranians on board," Stena Bulk spokesman Pat Adamson said.

The company said it had no evidence that the ship had been involved in a collision, one of the reasons Iran has cited for sending commandos to capture it last Friday.

Video: Reuters

The tough remarks by Khamenei's aide, Hossein Dehghan, a senior commander of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards whose views are seen as reflecting those of Khamenei, appeared to take a firm line in response to Western proposals to beef up security in the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the seizure of the ship.

Dehghan said Iran would take action if the status of the strait were altered, and that no country would be allowed to ship oil through it unless all countries can.

His remarks were reported by Al Jazeera television which did not supply direct quotes of an interview with him. He singled out the United Arab Emirates for criticism, saying it had become a base for attacks on Iran, and repeated earlier Iranian threats to attack all US targets in the region in the event of war.

Dehghan's remarks appear to shift the Iranian position on talks with the United States. In the past Tehran has said talks are possible although Washington must lift all sanctions first and return to the nuclear deal it abandoned last year.

The Trump administration says the purpose of its sanctions is to force Iran to the negotiating table, and it is open to talks, but Iran must make the first move.

Earlier on Wednesday, Iran's pragmatist president, Hassan Rouhani, who has drawn fire from hardline clerical leaders for reaching the nuclear pact with world powers in 2015, said Iran was ready for "just negotiations" but not if they mean surrender.

Britain has called for a European-led naval mission to ensure safe shipping through the world's most important oil artery after Iran seized the Stena Impero last week. The United States is trying to rally support for a global coalition to secure Gulf waters, although allies have been reluctant to join a US-led mission for fear of escalating confrontation.

France, Italy and Denmark gave initial support to the British plan. A German Foreign Ministry spokesman said Berlin was talking to Britain and France about the idea.

The Trump administration abandoned the nuclear deal last year arguing that it was too weak because it did not cover non-nuclear issues such as Iran's missile program and its regional behavior. Dehghan repeated Iranian assertions that its missile program is non-negotiable.

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British Royal Marines seized the supertanker Grace 1 on Thursday for trying to take oil to Syria in violation of EU sanctions, a dramatic step that drew Tehran's fury and could escalate its confrontation with the West.

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"If Britain does not release the Iranian oil tanker, it is the authorities' duty to seize a British oil tanker," said  Maj. Gen. Mohsen Rezai, who is also secretary of Iran's Expediency Council, a powerful state body.

"Islamic Iran in its 40-year history has never initiated hostilities in any battles but has also never hesitated in responding to bullies," Rezai said on his Twitter account.

While the European Union has banned oil shipments to war-torn Syria, a close ally of Iran, since 2011, it had never seized a tanker at sea. Unlike the United States, Europe does not have broad sanctions against Iran.

On Thursday, meanwhile, Iran said that "active resistance" was an antidote to US President Donald Trump's warning over Tehran's commitments to the 2015 nuclear deal, state TV reported.

"By exiting the nuclear deal, Trump has wounded the path of diplomacy. … The best antidote to all threats is active resistance," said spokesman of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Keyvan Khosravi.

"Iran is determined to go ahead with its plan to further scale back its nuclear commitments under the deal."

Trump warned Iran on Wednesday to "be careful with the threats. … They can come back to bite you like nobody has been."

Also Thursday, Iran's intelligence minister said Tehran and Washington could hold talks only if the US ended its sanctions and Iran's top authority, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, gave his approval, state news agency IRNA reported.

"Holding talks with America can be reviewed by Iran only if Trump lifts the sanctions and our supreme leader gives permission to hold such talks," Mahmoud Alavi said.

"Americans were scared of Iran's military power; that is the reason behind their decision to abort the decision to attack Iran," Alavi said, referring to an incident last month in which Trump said he aborted a military strike to retaliate for Iran's downing of an unmanned US drone over the Strait of Hormuz. The US president said he called off the attack because it could have killed 150 people.

Tehran said the surveillance drone had been shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile in Iranian airspace, while Washington said it had been in international airspace.

The EU has urged Iran to stick to the terms of the nuclear deal, but Tehran has said its commitment will gradually decrease until Britain, France, and Germany can ensure that it benefits financially from the accord – Iran's main incentive for signing it.

Since May, Washington has ordered all countries to stop purchasing Iranian oil or be banished from the global financial system. It has also dispatched extra troops to the region to counter Iranian threats.

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