Like the Six-Day War 68 years ago, everyone knew that war with Iran was imminent. First among them were Iran's leaders, who promised they were prepared to advance an attack on Israel and deliver a crushing response that would lead to Israel's destruction – which has been and remains the primary goal of the ayatollah regime since it seized power in Iran more than 40 years ago.
Yet Israel managed to surprise, delivering a preemptive strike that severely damaged Iran's capabilities and eliminated many senior commanders in the army and Revolutionary Guards who had been involved up to their necks in attacks on Israel over the past two years. Through this, Israel gained an unprecedented opening advantage in the confrontation awaiting us with Iran in the coming days – exactly like Operation Focus, which opened the Six-Day War and during which Israel destroyed all the air forces of Arab states, thereby securing air superiority and victory in battle.
On October 7, Iran incited its proxies throughout the region against us, starting with Hamas in Gaza, through Hezbollah and ending with the Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq, in an attempt to bring down Israel. But the Iranian attempt failed miserably. Its proxies were defeated in Gaza and Lebanon, and Iran was even expelled from Syria. In direct confrontation rounds between Tehran and Israel, the Iranians had the upper hand, and only Israeli restraint prevented the delivery of painful knockout blows to Iran itself.
So Iran enters the war with Israel when it is weaker and more vulnerable than ever – but it's still too early to assess whether the Iranian tiger is a paper tiger, as turned out to be the case with Hezbollah in hindsight. After all, Iran is a large country with tens of millions of inhabitants, which for four decades has built an arsenal of missiles and drones without interference, so the confrontation with it could be prolonged and difficult.
Arab states issued polite condemnations of the Israeli attack, but one cannot help but notice the open joy, and especially the schadenfreude – at Iran's misfortune – in reports on Arab television channels. These covered the scenes of destruction in Iran with great delight, while emphasizing the Israeli surprise, and especially how much the attack proves that Iran is a vulnerable, weak country penetrated by Israeli intelligence, which cannot defend itself or its senior officials.
The Israeli move demonstrates that the US has not yet abandoned the region – after all, it was carried out with Washington's approval and support. It also restores hope for establishing a regional defense alliance – today it's clearer than ever to Gulf states whom they can rely on in times of trouble.
The Iranian regime faces difficult days ahead. Iran finds itself in a position of military weakness, and also in regional and international isolation. One can assume that in the short term we will witness mobilization of the Iranian street behind the ayatollahs in Tehran, but in the long term – this is undoubtedly another nail in the coffin of the bloody regime ruling the country, which has been revealed as unable to defend Iran and as bringing disaster after disaster upon it through its policies.
In the past quarter-century, Iran has dragged the entire region into a bloodbath of terror and violence, through aggressive moves and building a network of proxies throughout the Middle East, which tried to harm Israel – but also undermined stability throughout the Arab world, in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Gulf states.
The blow suffered by Iran's proxies restored stability to Lebanon and Syria – but this is not enough, of course. This is a test for Israel and regional states, but it is primarily a test for the US. The blow that Israel delivered alone could have been a death blow to the Iranian regime if the US had joined us, but Iran's responses might force the US to join the campaign. And the goal of such a campaign, which has been imposed on the region and the world by Iran, must be clear – not just preventing enrichment or eliminating the nuclear project – but eliminating the regime in Iran, as the only way to ensure peace and stability in the region.
