In a moment of mischievous humor last Saturday night, Avigdor Liberman suggested to opposition leaders that their next meeting be held at his home in the Nokdim settlement. "I actually spent a lot of time there during my army service," Yair Golan noted in response.

Either way, wherever it takes place, it's doubtful a photo will emerge from it, and it's fair to assume that this will be Naftali Bennett's condition for the meeting he is expected to attend next week. For Bennett, a photo with the left-wing Yair Golan is like Benjamin Netanyahu being photographed with Itamar Ben Gvir before the last elections: a political partner, yes; a partner for a single photo? Absolutely not.

But the odd man out at this meeting will actually be Benny Gantz. His statement last week could turn out to be a pivotal moment in the elections. First, on the personal level, until now he was the lame son of the "change bloc," the one failing to pass the electoral threshold and therefore likely to be forced to drop out.

But now he has detached himself from the bloc and its pressures. He has a different audience, and no obligation to crown Bennett or Gadi Eisenkot as prime minister. And he has all the time in the world — perhaps even a year — to scrape together the fraction of a percent he needs to cross the threshold. According to estimates, the "unity government" camp, made up of both the anti-Bibi crowd and those opposed to the "Just Not Bibi" pack, counts for about 20 of the Knesset's 120 seats. Indeed, it's not far-fetched to think that Gantz could pick up the one extra mandate he's missing.

On the strategic level, this declaration is no less important. Netanyahu cannot run on a platform of breaking away from the ultra-Orthodox or Ben Gvir. Liberman, Golan and Yair Lapid have long locked themselves in with vows and bans against joining Netanyahu (though they've yet to match the level of former Labor leader Amir Peretz, who, like in an ancient shamanic ritual, shaved his mustache while taking the oath).

That leaves Bennett and Eisenkot. Bennett, in an interview in June, answered with a single "correct" when asked if he'd refuse to sit under Netanyahu, but observers paid more attention to the three minutes of evasiveness that preceded it. He doesn't want to say more, so as not to anger voters on the right or lose voters on the left. Eisenkot, meanwhile, has yet to state his position outright, but it can be assumed he'll sharpen his stance once he decides who to ally with.

Another issue looms: many polls suggest no decisive outcome. In that case, many voters may ask whether a unity government is preferable to an endless caretaker government of Ben Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich, and the ultra-Orthodox. As has happened time and again in recent years, we are presented with an upside-down world: voters are far more moderate and unity-minded than most of their leaders.

Party judgment

Two men have launched legal proceedings in the past year against former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. The first is International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan. The second is Likud activist Rami Ben-Yehuda, known for his tirades.

The party's internal tribunal will discuss next week a petition to expel Gallant from Likud. The reasons: his warning about the security risks of continuing the judicial reform, which led to his first dismissal; his "oppositional politics toward the prime minister" due to his support for returning the Palestinian Authority to Gaza; and his call for a broader draft law for the ultra-Orthodox.

Gallant has no intention of backing down without a fight. Unlike in the past, he's unlikely to run in the next primaries. But contrary to rumors, he doesn't plan to leave Likud. He will likely try to run for party leadership in the post-Netanyahu era, when Likud will have to decide if it's more nationalist than liberal, or more liberal than nationalist.

Gallant isn't expected to apologize for his stances on the hostages and the ultra-Orthodox, either. He will likely repeat what he has already said in faction meetings: that Likud is heir to Menachem Begin's politics, not Ben Gvir's.

An unexpected boost for the former defense minister came last week in a letter sent to the tribunal's presiding judge by former MK Uriel Lynn, a longtime party man. "Anyone holding a state office must not act with blind obedience," he wrote. "He bears personal responsibility for his organization's actions, and is supposed to serve the entire country, not just the party. Differences of opinion with the prime minister are entirely legitimate."

Lynn also added a historical reminder: "In the past, Likud knew how to handle a decision not to obey the party central committe. The center voted 70 percent against direct-election reform, claiming it endangered Likud. But when I brought that bill to the Knesset plenum, MK Benjamin Netanyahu was the only member of the party who stuck to his support and voted for it. The party accepted this with understanding, and that spirit should apply again this time."

Indeed, Likud did not expel Tally Gotliv, who defied the faction in the judicial appointments committee vote and helped elect the opposition's representative. Neither did it expel those who voted for the Gaza disengagement, against the outcome of the party referendum. Nothing will happen if it leaves Gallant's political future in the hands of party members as well.

The Chinese Wall

"China and Israel are nations with thousands of years of history," Netanyahu boasted a few years ago at China's National Day ceremony in the ambassador's residence. In that sense, it seems only a moment has passed since that unprecedented high point in relations.

Two years ago, at the peak of the Biden administration's boycott of him, Netanyahu announced he would make an official visit to Beijing. Officially, he said this was coordinated with the Americans and would not harm ties with Washington. In practice, it was a clear signal: if you keep undermining us, we have other strategic anchors. When China's vice president visited Israel, Netanyahu proudly noted that Israel was one of the few countries whose leader attended both the American and Chinese independence celebrations.

Well, not anymore. It wasn't a slip of the tongue last week when Netanyahu named China and Qatar as two of the world's greatest producers of antisemitism and anti-Israel sentiment. He said it once at the Finance Ministry, and repeated it that evening at the Foreign Ministry: "Israel is under a media siege from the West, funded by vast sums of money from Qatar, and from countries like China."

Everyone knows about the money Qatar invests. But what about China? The reference is to TikTok and its algorithm. Officially, the app is privately owned, but in China such a thing doesn't really exist. In Israel, TikTok's algorithm alone is blamed for damage on par with two foreign armies. It has trapped Western youth into a worldview where Israel is the villain and Hamas the hero. I tried a short experiment this week: I opened a video on Gaza — three minutes later, my whole feed had turned genocidal.

Not everyone at the top liked this new front. "Do we really need another battlefield in this war — to take on China too?" a senior diplomatic official asked this week. He noted that if TikTok is such a problem, it could be raised in the ongoing talks between Israel's and China's foreign ministers. After all, on the front marked most important, there have been gains: the Iranians feel completely abandoned by Beijing during and after Operation Rising Lion, with weapons supplies and oil imports far less than the ayatollahs expected.

Perhaps this is a gift to President Trump. In a divided Washington, where each party has its own weather forecast, the only bipartisan consensus is hatred of China. Israel has nearly halted the infrastructure deals with China that were so common here a decade ago, and the Shin Bet has already warned Israelis against trading sensitive security information with Beijing. Perhaps this is Israel's way of signaling to Trump: you're with us, and we're with you.

Sudden longing

It took unusual stamina to sit through the long ceremony in the Supreme Court last Thursday. For more than two hours, farewell speeches were delivered for Justice Yosef Elron, retiring at age 70. And yet, not a bird chirped as one speaker after another repeated the same points, recalled the same rulings, and offered the same praise. Only one, former Justice Minister Moshe Nissim, protested loudly when Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara's speech neared the half-hour mark without any sign of ending.

Still, it was a fascinating event. Usually, such teary eulogies are saved for funerals, when the deceased cannot complain about hypocrisy. Here, Elron had to exercise almost superhuman restraint not to interrupt. Even Supreme Court President Yitzhak Amit, Elron's sworn enemy, offered him praise, asserting that "Justice Elron's unique voice was clearly evident in his rulings, enriching his judicial writing and adding depth to his decisions."

Indeed, Amit's praise was almost grand enough to forget that it was precisely his personal hatred for Elron that saw him drag the entire Supreme Court into a months-long battle to block his appointment, in favor of the other candidate, Ron Sokol. In the end, only the insistence of ministers Moshe Kahlon and Ayelet Shaked — both of whom also attended the ceremony — secured Elron's seat.

And therein lies the court's problem: whenever criticized for lacking diversity and intellectual variety, they point to names like Noam Sohlberg, Yosef Elron, David Mintz, and others. But if it had been up to the justices alone, as it was before the law changed in 2007, those justices would have only seen the Supreme Court as petitioners or on guided tours. The court is not a family; it's a crucial arena of power struggles and passions. Elron, one of only two Mizrahi justices on the bench, made a huge contribution to its diversity.

When he was appointed, newspapers were filled with anonymous smears about his political ties and his lack of fitness for the role. Now, they already miss him. My sense is that when the next round of appointments comes, they'll miss him even more.

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The dust is beginning to settle the morning after Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's dismissal. While the severe breakdown in trust between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his defense minister may have made separation inevitable, the timing raises serious questions about the underlying motives.

If, as Netanyahu claims, Gallant was removed to advance the war effort, the decision could be defensible. However, if the dismissal was engineered solely to facilitate the passage of the bill exempting ultra-Orthodox men from mandatory military service, it represents a grave miscalculation that could prove costly for the right wing.

The coming days should reveal the true motivation behind the move. Netanyahu has already requested temporary withdrawal of the daycare subsidy bill from the Knesset agenda, citing widespread opposition within his coalition. If he now pivots to aggressively pushing forward the Haredi military service bill, it would clearly indicate that Gallant's dismissal was primarily about passing that law rather than serving military objectives.

One thing is already certain – we won't see a repeat of last March's major protest that followed Gallant's previous near-dismissal. Whether due to the US election season, protest fatigue, or the ongoing war, the Israeli public's response has been more muted this time. While opposition to the government's actions has intensified, it's taking different forms than street demonstrations.

At this crucial juncture, those advocating for ultra-Orthodox military service should consider two important points:

First, Gallant's dismissal is now a fait accompli, unlike the reversible situation last March. The military service exemption bill, however, has not yet passed. Several coalition members still oppose it. Strengthening their resolve could prevent the bill's passage. We must stay focused on this primary objective rather than the already-settled matter of Gallant's removal.

Second, a significant portion of Israel's religious-Zionist public, including both community members and some of the Knesset representatives from the Religious Zionism party, strongly opposes turning the ultra-Orthodox enlistment issue into a broader campaign against the government. They oppose the protests, road blockades, and calls for economic shutdowns. If the fight against the exemption bill morphs into a general protest movement, we'll lose these crucial allies. Success in blocking the exemption law depends on maintaining support from opponents within the right-wing camp. Their participation is indispensable.

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, marking a major shift in Israel's wartime leadership, according to Israeli media reports.

"My highest commitment as prime minister is to ensure Israel's security and lead us to complete victory," Netanyahu said in a videotaped address.

"During wartime, the trust between a prime minister and a defense minister must be absolute. While we had that trust and worked productively together in the early months of this campaign, that relationship has deteriorated significantly in recent months," he explained.

Netanyahu revealed that he and Gallant developed serious differences over the management of the war effort, with Gallant taking positions that contradicted both government and cabinet decisions.

"I made numerous attempts to bridge our differences, but the divide only grew wider. These disagreements became public in ways they shouldn't have, and worse still, became known to our enemies – who took great satisfaction and advantage of the situation," Netanyahu added.

Responding to his dismissal, Gallant tweeted: "Israel's security was and will always remain my life's mission."

ביטחון מדינת ישראל היה ותמיד יישאר משימת חיי

— יואב גלנט - Yoav Gallant (@yoavgallant) November 5, 2024

This isn't the first clash between the two leaders. Their relationship has been strained for some time, coming to a head during the "Gallant Night" protests in March 2023, when thousands demonstrated against Netanyahu's previous attempt to dismiss Gallant.

Netanyahu announced that Israel Katz will take over as defense minister, citing Katz's experience as minister of foreign affairs, minister of finance, and his five-year tenure as minister of intelligence, as well as his long-standing membership in the Security Cabinet.

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The timing, more than the message itself, emerges as the crucial element in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's dismissal of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Tuesday evening. Netanyahu had been planning this move for an extended period, possibly since that pivotal evening when he reversed his previous attempt to dismiss the minister amid widespread street protests.

With the US elections reaching their peak, warfare on two fronts – Gaza and Lebanon – settling into a sustained pattern, and Iran yet to push Israel into another spiral of escalation (not to mention the internal Israeli political calculations), conditions aligned perfectly for this long-planned move. The significance of this November 5, 2024 timing cannot be overstated.

Netanyahu chose his moment while the US and particularly the White House remain absorbed in a tight election race, when attention to Israeli politics runs at its lowest ebb, and no dramatic intervention is likely as American politicians carefully navigate voter sensitivities.

As Donald Trump and Kamala Harris make their appearances at polling stations, and less than 12 hours after Secretary of State Antony Blinken's conversation with Gallant, Netanyahu executed his dismissal plan. While Gallant received no advance warning, Israel Katz spent an extensive day in close consultations with Netanyahu. This development reveals that the Defense Ministry shake-up serves dual purposes: removing the confrontational Gallant while simultaneously installing Netanyahu's confidant Katz instead of the next potential challenger, Gideon Sa'ar, who will become foreign minister rather than get the defense portfolio he covets.

The White House timing carries double significance: preventing immediate US pushback while presenting the next president and administration with an established fact at the Defense Ministry. Netanyahu positions Katz even before overseas vote counting concludes, anticipating Harris's potential victory.

As protesters block the Ayalon Highway South, the Democratic establishment may disapprove of Israel's new defense minister, but intervention becomes problematic once the signage outside the Defense Ministry headquarters in the Kirya changes. Even involvement in a friendly nation's internal politics observes certain boundaries.

What could have become Gallant's triumph – a successful management of two fronts and potentially earning Netanyahu's warm embrace – has now transformed into a double-edged sword. Between impending ceasefire agreements in Lebanon and hostage negotiations in Gaza, Netanyahu moves to neutralize someone who, in his view and according to tonight's statement, became a liability due to trust issues. Behind closed doors, their tensions centered primarily on managing the campaign against American pressure.

"The widening trust crisis between me and the defense minister has become public knowledge, and this crisis prevents proper management of the campaign," Netanyahu addressed the numerous headlines documenting their rift – hardly classified information requiring careful disclosure. He now positions Israel Katz beside him, a figure who has grown increasingly close during recent years, particularly throughout the current war.

Despite incorporating Sa'ar into his government and the Foreign Ministry, Netanyahu appears unwilling to risk another loyalty test in the defense minister position, preferring someone he expects to fully support his decisions.

The story concludes with a revealing detail – before the last elections, Netanyahu sought to place Gallant in the Defense Ministry to secure an ally against the defense establishment when the time came to strike Iran. However, experience showed that Gallant's primary loyalty lay with his ministry rather than the prime minister.

Iran remains the ultimate objective, and this time Netanyahu positions beside him someone he believes will execute when the moment arrives.

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Hezbollah's governing Shura Council confirmed Tuesday the appointment of Naim Qassem as the terror organization's new Secretary-General, elevating the group's longtime deputy to its top position following last month's killing of Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike. The 71-year-old Qassem takes control of the organization during a period of heightened conflict along the Israel-Lebanon frontier. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant wrote on social media: "Temporary appointment. Not for long."

Temporary appointment.
Not for long. pic.twitter.com/ONu0GveApi

— יואב גלנט - Yoav Gallant (@yoavgallant) October 29, 2024

 In recent weeks, Qassem has emerged as the organization's public face, delivering several addresses to convey Hezbollah's positions, though appearing notably uncomfortable in his initial public appearances. His statements have hinted at a possible willingness to decouple the Lebanese front from the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

The appointment comes despite earlier speculation in Lebanese media that Qassem might decline the position, given his longtime role as deputy and apparent reluctance to assume leadership. His elevation follows the killing of Hashem Safieddine, Hezbollah's Executive Council chief, in an Israeli strike earlier this month. Safieddine had been widely viewed as the natural successor to Nasrallah. Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyed, who heads the group's Political Council, was also considered a potential candidate for the top position.

A founding member of Hezbollah, Qassem serves as one of the terror group's religious arbiters. The son of a Beirut taxi driver, he was born in the southern Lebanese village of Fila. Now a father of six sons, he has authored 26 books and, in recent years, represented the organization at official ceremonies in Iran, including the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian.

The organization's official announcement stated: "In adherence to our principles and objectives, and in accordance with the mechanism for selecting the Secretary-General, the Shura Council has agreed to elect Sheikh Naim Qassem as Secretary-General, who carries the blessed banner on this path. We pledge before Allah and the spirit of the martyr Hassan Nasrallah to work together to achieve Hezbollah's principles and path objectives and to maintain the flame of resistance and its banner until victory is achieved."

Speaking three weeks ago, Qassem asserted that the organization's command and control capabilities remained intact, claiming they had "overcome the strikes against them." He noted that each eliminated senior official had been succeeded by their deputy.

Addressing international efforts to broker a joint ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, Qassem stated, "Hezbollah and the Amal movement are united in good times and bad. We support the diplomatic action led by Nabih Berri (Parliament Speaker and Amal movement leader), whose basic headline is a ceasefire. Before a ceasefire, there is no room for any other discussion."

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The current events unfolding in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip mark a crucial turning point in shaping the rules of the new world order. The Middle East, a key area of conflict and influence, extends beyond the immediate terror actors like Hamas and Hezbollah. These organizations are essentially puppets controlled by regional powers aiming to change the game's rules and establish the "axis of resistance" as a major player in the region.

While it is challenging to predict the exact outcomes in southern Lebanon and Gaza, the situation is not solely about military conflicts. It is intrinsically linked to ongoing negotiations, both public and private. What is certain is that a new strategic reality is emerging in the Middle East. This shift must be understood within a broader geostrategic and geopolitical framework, including other regional hotspots like Sudan, Libya, Yemen, and the Horn of Africa.

One potential scenario is Israel successfully neutralizing threats from Hezbollah. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said, "The tentacles of that octopus are severely wounded – now's the time to aim for the head." Israel has made significant progress, notably eliminating key Hezbollah leaders. This will inevitably impact the organization's effectiveness and decision-making capabilities, requiring considerable time to restructure and fill the leadership void. Despite ongoing fierce fighting in southern Lebanon, Hezbollah's combat infrastructure remains largely functional, making its complete elimination through leadership targeting alone unlikely.

By limiting Hezbollah's threat and neutralizing the Houthis, Israel may proceed to the next strategic phase: dismantling Iran's nuclear infrastructure to fully eliminate the threats facing Israel. Netanyahu's government might view the current climate as ideal for this move, considering both combat dynamics and the curbed response capabilities of Iran's proxies.

Additionally, unwavering American support, driven by US presidential election calculations, may embolden Israel as the Biden administration seeks to demonstrate resolute backing ahead of the November vote.

From Israel's cost-benefit perspective, there's a temptation to target Iranian nuclear facilities. However, Israel may not rush until conditions are fully prepared. A key prerequisite would be provoking Iran into significant attacks against Israel, providing legitimacy for a proportionate response to address perceived threats.

Israel has effectively leveraged Hamas' October 7 terror attack to pursue broader, more comprehensive goals beyond the narrow concept of victory sought by terrorist militias. This reflects the disparity between Israel's deep strategic thinking and the short-term, media-oriented victories pursued by militant groups.

The likely outcome is a new Middle Eastern landscape that Israel did not necessarily seek but successfully shaped and expedited by exploiting the conditions created by Iranian-backed terror militias in Yemen, Gaza, Lebanon, and Iraq.

The emerging rules in the Middle East may, for the first time in decades, exclude non-state actors, with Iranian proxy organizations potentially facing obsolescence. However, this outcome depends on regional and international efforts to complement Israel's military actions with political and diplomatic initiatives. These conflicts will ultimately be resolved through negotiations, presenting a rare opportunity to address the regional chaos caused by terrorist militias that not only threaten Israel but also undermine the sovereignty of countries like Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.

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In the shadow of American reservations and the looming US elections, Israel's intense deliberations on how to respond to Iran persist. The fact that the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet has yet to convene to empower the prime minister and defense minister on this matter suggests that a final decision remains elusive. Concurrently, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's planned trip to the US remains unscheduled.

Insider information reveals that the ongoing discussions and consultations have factored in the US stance while exploring various scenarios for striking Iranian military installations. The goal is to inflict significant damage without provoking Iran into further escalation.

Israeli sources assess that the probability of targeting Iran's nuclear facilities is relatively low compared to other military and infrastructure options. They argue that a limited strike on nuclear sites would fall short of its primary objective: eradicating Iran's accumulated capabilities and knowledge. Sources close to the matter warn of a genuine risk that an Israeli attack leading to escalation could plunge the nation into a war of attrition characterized by repeated barrages targeting Israeli territory.

Unlike the familiar conflict cycles witnessed in Gaza in recent years, such a protracted engagement could significantly drain Israeli resources, exhausting both the military and civilian population far beyond any damage inflicted upon Iran.

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In what could be a significant blow to Hezbollah, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that Hashem Safieddine, widely expected to succeed slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, has been "eliminated," CBC reports.

Safieddine, a cousin of Nasrallah and top Hezbollah official, has not been heard from publicly since an Israeli airstrike late last week. "We eliminated Nasrallah himself, Nasrallah's successor, and the successor of Nasrallah's successor," Netanyahu said in a press release video.

Earlier, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told officers at the Israeli military's northern command center, "Hezbollah is an organization without a head. Nasrallah was eliminated; his replacement was probably also eliminated."

IDF has eliminated Sayed Hashem Safieddine, a cousin of Hassan Nasrallah and the new leader of Hezbollah's Executive Council.

He was reportedly the target of tonight's Israeli Airstrikes on the Dahieh Suburb of Southern Beirut, eliminated using bunker buster bombs. pic.twitter.com/f6GbMDf6Nr

— Menachem Begin (@lalish1415) October 3, 2024

The Israeli military claims to have killed another senior Hezbollah commander, Suhail Husseini, in a strike on Beirut. Husseini was reportedly responsible for overseeing the group's logistics, budget, and management. Hezbollah has not yet commented on either claim.

In a televised speech, Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem stated that the group supports efforts to reach a ceasefire in Lebanon. Notably, Qassem omitted any mention of a Gaza truce deal as a precondition to halting attacks on Israel, a departure from previous statements. "We support the political activity being led by Berri under the title of a ceasefire," Qassem said, referring to attempts by Lebanese Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, to secure a halt.

Israel's military announced it had begun ground operations in southwest Lebanon, expanding its incursions to a new zone a year after exchanges of fire began with Hezbollah.

Iran warned Israel on Tuesday against any attacks on the Islamic Republic, a week after Tehran fired a barrage of missiles at Israel. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that any attack on Iran's infrastructure would be met with retaliation.

UN officials stated that their repeated appeals for restraint had "gone unheeded" in the year since the exchanges of fire began between Hezbollah and Israel. "Today, one year later, the near-daily exchanges of fire have escalated into a relentless military campaign whose humanitarian impact is nothing short of catastrophic," they said in a joint statement.

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Likud party insiders reported Monday that negotiations with New Hope — The National Right party leader Gideon Sa'ar have made substantial headway. They suggest that the primary hurdle to forming a government with Sa'ar hinges on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision regarding Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's future – a decision yet to be finalized despite the strained relationship between the two.

Likud sources hint at a possible rotation agreement for the defense portfolio between Sa'ar and Foreign Minister Israel Katz, with Katz becoming defense minister and Sa'ar becoming foreign minister, until a later point in which they would swap. Sa'ar's office has remained tight-lipped, stating simply: "There is nothing new." Political observers speculate that New Hope MK Zeev Elkin might be tapped for the health minister position.

Netanyahu's office swiftly dismissed the reports saying, "The claims regarding negotiations with Gideon Sa'ar are inaccurate." The Shas Haredi party echoed this sentiment. However, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum reacted with fury, "Appointing Gideon Sa'ar as defense minister would be tantamount to the prime minister admitting he has abandoned the hostages for good," they said.

Netanyahu appears to be in no rush to oust Gallant and opposes the idea of moving Israel Katz from the Foreign Ministry to accommodate Sa'ar. Sources close to the prime minister argue it's illogical to sideline Katz, a party loyalist, while rewarding Gallant, who has taken opposing stances to Netanyahu. Gallant's office has yet to comment, though insiders suggest there might be some truth to the reports.

The government and Likud are keen to bring Sa'ar back into the fold to broaden the Coalition, hoping Gallant's potential exit might resolve conscription disputes with ultra-Orthodox parties. The question remains whether Sa'ar would be amenable to compromises on conscription – compromises Gallant rejected, leading to the current impasse. Government officials believe Sa'ar's security stance aligns more closely with the majority of the cabinet than Gallant's does.

In a candid interview with Israel Hayom just before his March resignation, Sa'ar stated: "Had I pledged support for the conscription law, I'd be sitting in the War Cabinet today. Naturally, I declined. Our principles and values are not up for negotiation."

He elaborated: "Various offers were on the table. Some fell short of an adequate alternative to the War Cabinet, while others came with strings attached that I couldn't accept. I believe my demand was reasonable – after all, in this administration, all party leaders either hold portfolios or sit on the War Cabinet."

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In a move that could reshape Israel's military conscription landscape, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has greenlit the issuance of initial draft notices to Haredi men as early as next month. This decision, announced Tuesday, marks a potential turning point in the long-standing exemption of the Haredi community from mandatory military service, intensifying the national debate on equality in civic duties and the integration of this sector into broader Israeli society.

BREAKING: Israel to send out draft orders to around 3,000 Haredim/ultra orthodox in the next month...if you thought things couldn't get more EXPLOSIVE in this wild country!

— Yonah Jeremy Bob (@jeremybob1) July 9, 2024

Gallant approved on Tuesday the sending of initial draft notices for assessment and classification processes to potential recruits from the Haredi sector in August. The notices are expected to be sent to Haredi individuals who are not studying in yeshivas, following verification of their non-student status. It was also decided that over the next month, a dedicated information campaign would be launched for the Haredi public, making the service tracks adapted for Haredi more accessible.

Gallant and IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi agreed under the principle of "effective enlistment" – a strategy aimed at ensuring meaningful service opportunities for Haredi recruits and boosting overall enlistment numbers from this sector. After not appearing during the two previous discussions, the Head of the IDF's Manpower Directorate, Major General Yaniv Asur, arrived at the discussion on the draft law in the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.

Committee Chairman MK Yuli Edelstein demanded clear answers regarding the number of forces needed to be recruited and how many notices would be issued. "I expect to hear clear answers today with targets, capabilities, and details about the thought process behind the numbers." Asur's response was that he "cannot estimate." During the discussion, the Head of the Manpower Directorate said that over the next two years, in addition to the 1,700 already recruited this year to complete the 3,000 recruits per year, an additional 3,000 recruits would be needed. "A total of about ten thousand soldiers."

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