The Gulf's concerns, Iran's conflicting messages, and the preparations of pro-Iranian militias in Iraq: a possible Israeli attack on Iran is stoking fears across the Middle East about a wider regional conflict.
According to Arab reports, Syria's Fourth Division, part of Bashar al-Assad's regime, has taken new measures to avoid Israeli strikes. The division, commanded by Maher al-Assad, the brother of the Syrian dictator, has ordered a halt to the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah or the hosting of Hezbollah operatives and pro-Iranian militias in its bases and headquarters. Another directive prohibits pro-Iranian elements or those affiliated with Hezbollah from approaching the Golan Heights border.
Simultaneously, sources in Sana'a informed the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, which is close to Hezbollah, that the Houthis are preparing militarily for a direct maritime confrontation with Israel as part of a "new phase of escalation." According to the report, the Houthis are targeting American naval forces and the Israeli navy. Additionally, Hezbollah and Iraqi militias are expected to participate in such attacks. The Houthis view the preparations by Israel and the US for a strike on Iran as a "new escalation" and are readying themselves for a response.
Similar threats are emerging from Iraq. An Iraqi military expert confirmed to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that Shia militias in the country have displayed various types of drones launched from Iraqi territory toward Israel. According to the expert, these militias are now employing larger drones carrying more explosives. Arab sources indicate that the main militias behind the "Islamic Resistance in Iraq," which has claimed responsibility for the drone launches, include Kata'ib Hezbollah in Iraq, Sayyid al-Shuhada Brigades, Imam Ali Brigades, the al-Nujaba Movement, and Ansar Allah Brigades. Some of these groups have threatened to attack U.S. bases if Israel strikes Iran.
Today, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Iraq, stating that the purpose of the trip was to consult and coordinate positions with Iraq. He claimed the coordination was aimed at "curbing Israel and its attempts to escalate tensions in the region. We do not wish to expand the war, but we are prepared for any scenario." Araghchi added that "Iran will have no red lines when it comes to defending its citizens." In contrast, diplomatic sources reported an Iranian message indicating that Tehran would respond to a limited Israeli attack.
Meanwhile, Gulf states are applying pressure on the US to prevent Israeli strikes on Iran's oil facilities. In Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf nations, there are concerns that their oil installations could become targets if tensions escalate. According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are refusing to allow Israeli aircraft to fly over their airspace for any potential strikes on Iran. These messages have been relayed to the Biden administration.
