The dust is beginning to settle the morning after Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's dismissal. While the severe breakdown in trust between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his defense minister may have made separation inevitable, the timing raises serious questions about the underlying motives.
If, as Netanyahu claims, Gallant was removed to advance the war effort, the decision could be defensible. However, if the dismissal was engineered solely to facilitate the passage of the bill exempting ultra-Orthodox men from mandatory military service, it represents a grave miscalculation that could prove costly for the right wing.
The coming days should reveal the true motivation behind the move. Netanyahu has already requested temporary withdrawal of the daycare subsidy bill from the Knesset agenda, citing widespread opposition within his coalition. If he now pivots to aggressively pushing forward the Haredi military service bill, it would clearly indicate that Gallant's dismissal was primarily about passing that law rather than serving military objectives.
One thing is already certain – we won't see a repeat of last March's major protest that followed Gallant's previous near-dismissal. Whether due to the US election season, protest fatigue, or the ongoing war, the Israeli public's response has been more muted this time. While opposition to the government's actions has intensified, it's taking different forms than street demonstrations.
At this crucial juncture, those advocating for ultra-Orthodox military service should consider two important points:
First, Gallant's dismissal is now a fait accompli, unlike the reversible situation last March. The military service exemption bill, however, has not yet passed. Several coalition members still oppose it. Strengthening their resolve could prevent the bill's passage. We must stay focused on this primary objective rather than the already-settled matter of Gallant's removal.
Second, a significant portion of Israel's religious-Zionist public, including both community members and some of the Knesset representatives from the Religious Zionism party, strongly opposes turning the ultra-Orthodox enlistment issue into a broader campaign against the government. They oppose the protests, road blockades, and calls for economic shutdowns. If the fight against the exemption bill morphs into a general protest movement, we'll lose these crucial allies. Success in blocking the exemption law depends on maintaining support from opponents within the right-wing camp. Their participation is indispensable.
