David Baron – www.israelhayom.com https://www.israelhayom.com israelhayom english website Fri, 26 Sep 2025 20:14:39 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.2 https://www.israelhayom.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/cropped-G_rTskDu_400x400-32x32.jpg David Baron – www.israelhayom.com https://www.israelhayom.com 32 32 What is Putin looking for in Europe's skies?  https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/09/26/what-is-putin-looking-for-in-europes-skies/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/09/26/what-is-putin-looking-for-in-europes-skies/#respond Fri, 26 Sep 2025 19:40:48 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=1091423 The recent incidents involving unidentified drones over Scandinavia, the latest of which took place just last night, have left NATO states on edge. Even if not all members openly admit it, it is clear in Europe that these are part of Russia's ongoing provocations, which have escalated in recent weeks with drones penetrating Polish and […]

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The recent incidents involving unidentified drones over Scandinavia, the latest of which took place just last night, have left NATO states on edge. Even if not all members openly admit it, it is clear in Europe that these are part of Russia's ongoing provocations, which have escalated in recent weeks with drones penetrating Polish and Romanian airspace and Russian fighter jets violating Estonian sovereignty.

Assuming, with little serious doubt, that this is Russia's doing, what is the Kremlin trying to achieve? Several interlinked goals. First, at the most basic level, it is testing NATO's cohesion: how will different member states respond to aggression that stays below the threshold of war? Who will act aggressively, and who will hold back? These responses serve as coordinates for future pressure points.

אתר פגיעת כטב"מ רוסי בפולין , AP
Site of a Russian drone strike in Poland. Photo: AP

Second, the provocations double as military intelligence gathering. How will the targeted countries defend themselves in these gray-zone scenarios? What does it take to shoot down a drone? Are there electronic defenses near sensitive sites, and if so, how effective are they?

Third, the difficulty, lack of will or inability to intercept these incursions, Poland required fighter jets to scramble against drones, a drone over Romania wandered for an hour unchallenged, and Estonia had to call in Italian jets stationed inside its territory to escort Russian planes out because it lacks the capability itself, serves a dual purpose. It portrays NATO as inept, creating both a psychological effect on the public and a political boost to parties less hostile to Russia, while also fueling calls to invest in Europe's own defense systems. That in turn diverts resources away from Ukraine.

פוטין. לתחזק הרתעה כללית ביבשת , AP
Putin. Maintaining overall deterrence in Europe. Photo: AP

Frightening Europe is not just about reallocating funds away from Kyiv. It also helps maintain Russia's deterrence across the continent. Fear has plenty of customers, those willing to placate Moscow in the hope that the war in Ukraine has not changed the global order and that things can somehow return to 2021. This is the most passive and apolitical category of potential collaborators. Meanwhile, the threat of war further undermines European unity at a time when, under the current US administration, the continent finds itself without a reliable ally to uphold a rules-based order and protect liberal democracy.

There is also the factor of normalization: in the absence of asymmetrical responses, Putin will continue escalating his hybrid warfare, confident that Western leaders have much more to lose.

Finally, these confrontations, even if they remain in the realm of covert conflict, with Moscow denying responsibility or downplaying incidents such as claiming a few seconds of airspace violation in Estonia, are designed not just to create pressure points but to convert them into future bargaining chips.

זלנסקי. המדינות הקרובות לאוקראינה חוטפות ראשונות , AFP
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The countries closest to Ukraine are the first to be hit. Photo: AFP

The logic in Moscow is simple: when Russian pressure is dispersed across multiple fronts, such as drones disrupting Copenhagen Airport without causing actual military damage, it becomes easier to secure concessions on a front that really matter. For example, Russia could demand limits on the size of Ukraine's military. It is far more difficult to reject such a demand when it is one item on a list of five, but when it is buried among 50 demands, many of them invented solely for negotiation purposes, Moscow can present itself as "flexible" by conceding on 40 of them.

Still, things may not play out for Putin as they once did with Ukraine. Much has changed since 2022: intelligence sharing, Europe's defense industry and public awareness of the true nature of the Russian regime. European politicians also risk their own careers by delaying or offering ineffective responses, as the future of both NATO and Europe itself is at stake. Russian fighter jets entering Norwegian airspace three times this year, for instance, make the threat feel more immediate than headlines from the war in Ukraine.

It is no coincidence that Russia's provocations target Estonia, Poland, Denmark, Norway and Romania. Geography plays a role, but the real common denominator is their firm support for Ukraine. Estonia contributes one of the highest shares of GDP, Romania and Poland are major transit routes for Western arms, and the Scandinavian states have been heavily investing in Ukraine's defense industry through joint ventures that will also benefit their own militaries.

בתי יהודים שסומנו ברובע ה-14 בפריז. המלחמה ההיברדית הרוסית תימשך , ארגון הסטודנטים היהודים בצרפת
Jewish homes marked in Paris' 14th arrondissement. Russia's hybrid war is set to continue. Photo: Union of Jewish Students of France

In any case, further provocations are likely, on land through acts of sabotage, via antisemitic provocations such as Star of David graffiti in France, and of course through cyberattacks. For now, Moscow has no reason to stop. As long as it can maintain plausible deniability, avoid unforeseen mistakes and face no asymmetric retaliation, like Turkey's 2015 downing of a Russian jet over Syria, it will continue to ratchet up the pressure on its neighbors, just as it did in Georgia before 2021, in Moldova, occasionally in Kazakhstan and Armenia, and of course in Ukraine. It is essentially the same game, played on different scales and in new boards.

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Major foreign policy win for Trump as Armenia and Azerbaijan sign peace deal at White House https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/08/09/major-foreign-policy-win-for-trump-as-armenia-and-azerbaijan-sign-peace-deal-at-white-house/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/08/09/major-foreign-policy-win-for-trump-as-armenia-and-azerbaijan-sign-peace-deal-at-white-house/#respond Fri, 08 Aug 2025 21:40:43 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=1079103 Armenia and Azerbaijan have signed a historic peace agreement at the White House, bringing an end to nearly four decades of territorial conflict. The deal, brokered by US President Donald Trump, gives Washington a strategic foothold in a critical region bordering Iran and deep within the former Soviet sphere. Trump hosted Armenian Prime Minister Nikol […]

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Armenia and Azerbaijan have signed a historic peace agreement at the White House, bringing an end to nearly four decades of territorial conflict. The deal, brokered by US President Donald Trump, gives Washington a strategic foothold in a critical region bordering Iran and deep within the former Soviet sphere.

Trump hosted Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for what he called a "historic peace summit" in Washington. "Many Leaders have tried to end the War, with no success, until now, thanks to 'TRUMP'," he wrote on his social media platform.

מנהיגי ארמניה ואזרבייג'ן לוחצים ידיים באבו דאבי , איי.אף.פי
The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan shake hands in Abu Dhabi. Photo: AFP

In a joint gesture, Aliyev announced that he and Pashinyan would submit a joint letter nominating Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two countries, Shiite majority but secular Azerbaijan, a close Israeli ally, and Christian Armenia, had been locked in a bloody dispute over borders and ethnic enclaves since the collapse of the Soviet Union, most notably over Nagorno-Karabakh. That region, under Armenian control since the 1990s, was recaptured by Azerbaijan in 2023, leading to the exodus of more than 100,000 Armenians.

Ultimately, it was Trump's resolution of the core territorial dispute that paved the way for the breakthrough agreement.

פליטים נמלטים מנגורנו קרבאך בארמניה , EPA
Refugees fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia. Photo: EPA

Although the two sides had reached terms back in March, the signing was delayed due to Baku's demand that Armenia amend its constitution to remove any language suggesting territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Pashinyan, weakened politically at home, had initially refused, fearing electoral defeat.

At the heart of the agreement is a provision granting the US exclusive rights to build a strategic transportation corridor through the South Caucasus. The corridor will connect mainland Azerbaijan with its autonomous Nakhchivan exclave via the Zangezur corridor, which runs through Armenian territory.

The corridor had long been a major sticking point. Baku had sought an extraterritorial route allowing goods to pass from Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and Turkey without Armenian border checks, while Yerevan feared it would undermine its sovereignty and open the door to future territorial demands.

The American-brokered compromise allows for a middle path: the route will be built and operated by a newly established US corporation but will remain under Armenian law within Armenia's Syunik Province. The corridor is set to be named the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity", or TRIPP.

The agreement represents a stinging diplomatic defeat for the Kremlin, which has long viewed the South Caucasus as its backyard. Moscow, bogged down in Ukraine, has been unable to dedicate resources to the region.

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Eight tough questions about Trump's Gaza takeover plan https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/02/05/eight-tough-questions-about-trumps-gaza-takeover-plan/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/02/05/eight-tough-questions-about-trumps-gaza-takeover-plan/#respond Wed, 05 Feb 2025 09:11:10 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=1032551 President Donald Trump's proposal to take control of the Gaza Strip, or in his words, "own" it, and relocate 1.8 million residents to neighboring Arab countries has shocked the world, and for good reason. It is difficult to recall a proposal so far-reaching to resolve the Gaza problem. In a sense, one cannot help but […]

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President Donald Trump's proposal to take control of the Gaza Strip, or in his words, "own" it, and relocate 1.8 million residents to neighboring Arab countries has shocked the world, and for good reason. It is difficult to recall a proposal so far-reaching to resolve the Gaza problem.

In a sense, one cannot help but be impressed by the boldness of this vision, which almost seems inevitable given the complexity of the Gaza problem, its protracted nature, and its broader historical, geographic, and political context. However, at this stage, it is reasonable and necessary to ask whether this is, at least for now, nothing more than a shiny package with very little substance, if at all.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the idea of "owning the Gaza Strip" only began circulating in Trump's inner circle in recent days, and only a handful of close associates were even aware of its existence. If the proposal is serious, it will likely be further developed in the near future, and Trump and his team will have to address some key questions.

First. No Arab country has agreed to accept Palestinians from Gaza. Jordan, with its 2.39 million registered refugees, has no need or incentive to further burden itself with this historical headache (see: Black September). Egypt, for its part, neither wants nor likely has the ability to create a refugee crisis in Sinai, which could become a breeding ground for extremism and pose a threat to Israel across the border, and to the peace treaty itself.

Second. Even if Arab states were to agree, what about the Gazans themselves? Trump talks about relocating 1.8 million people as if they were 1.8 million pieces of furniture to be moved. But what if the Gazans refuse to leave? And to places that do not even want them? Like it or not, human beings have rights and, indeed, their own will. It would also be unwise to underestimate the historical and emotional connection that Gazans have to their land and homes, even if those homes have been reduced to rubble due to wars caused by Hamas.

Third. International law prohibits forcibly transferring a population unless there is a clear military necessity for a limited period (see: the IDF's evacuation of northern Gaza). It also prohibits changing the ethnic, religious, or racial composition of a population. Trump's plan envisions a permanent transfer. Even if there is a humanitarian aspect to the proposal, such as clearing unexploded ordnance and rebuilding infrastructure, it is doubtful whether the end goal, a permanent exodus that would turn Gaza into an international zone, justifies the means.

Tens of thousands of Gazans head to northern Gaza. Photo: Reuters

Fourth. Speaking of international law, under what mandate would the US operate in Gaza? What authority would allow it to remove the local population and assume control? Interestingly, Trump referred to "owning" Gaza and developing it, language that aligns with his real estate background, where he has infused business terminology into politics.However, Gaza is not the Moon (though parts of it may look like it), where one can simply land and start developing as they please. Even the Moon is subject to international agreements. Does Trump's plan assume the approval of the UN Security Council? A bilateral deal with China or Russia, countries that have little interest in boosting Trump's geopolitical standing? Would Gulf states partner with the US on this, which would still require international legitimacy?

Fifth. Let's assume Arab states agree, but Gazans, or at least some of them, refuse. How would the evacuation be carried out? By force? Would Trump be willing to deploy US troops to Gaza, putting American soldiers at risk?

Sixth. Trump's entire election campaign was centered on "America First" and focusing inward, prioritizing domestic American issues. How does sending US troops and engaging in unprecedented involvement in the Middle East's oldest conflict align with that message? Trump himself has repeatedly spoken about the need for the US to withdraw from the Middle East ("only blood and sand," he once described it). Surely, he would not deploy American forces into one of the most volatile areas in the region, entangling the US for years to come. According to real estate developer Steve Witkoff, rebuilding Gaza would take 10 to 15 years. Trump has spoken about ending wars worldwide, yet a US military landing in Gaza would do anything but that.Even Trump's strongest allies were stunned by his Gaza vision, including Republican Senator Lindsey Graham. "The proposal is highly problematic," said Graham, a staunch supporter of Israel in the Senate. "I don't think voters in South Carolina will be enthusiastic about sending American troops to govern Gaza. We'll see how the Arab world reacts, but the plan has major issues on multiple levels."

Donald Trump. Photo: Reuters

Seventh. On a related note, direct military involvement in Gaza would cost American taxpayers a fortune. Does the US currently have hundreds of billions of dollars available for this project? Has its economy suddenly become strong enough to withstand such an expense? This, after all, is the same economic vulnerability that helped propel Trump into the White House just three months ago.

Eighth. How would this be perceived worldwide, not just in the Muslim world? Would an American plan to take over Gaza and relocate its population not ignite additional conflicts, precisely when Trump has promised to be a peacemaker and campaigned (in part) on that promise? One could argue, and hope, that his proposal is genuinely aimed at bringing peace to this troubled land by transforming Gaza into a Mediterranean Riviera. However, given what is currently known about the plan, and more importantly, what remains unknown. it would be rational, at the very least, to doubt whether it would bring the long-awaited peace.

Many questions remain about the highly surprising vision that emerged from the White House overnight. One can only hope that its architects have thoroughly considered every detail and all possible consequences. and that they are not merely selling empty rhetoric in fancy packaging. Unless, of course, this "vision" is nothing more than a trial balloon or a pressure tactic designed to reshuffle the deck.

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Did Israeli-seized arms make their way to Ukraine on US aircraft? https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/01/26/did-israeli-seized-arms-make-their-way-to-ukraine-on-us-aircraft/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/01/26/did-israeli-seized-arms-make-their-way-to-ukraine-on-us-aircraft/#respond Sun, 26 Jan 2025 13:53:50 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=1030031 Russian weaponry, captured by the IDF from Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon and Syria, may be starting to make its way to Ukraine, according to recent speculation. Western analysts have identified a series of American cargo aircraft movements from NATO's Ramstein base in Germany to Hatzerim base, and subsequently to the military airport in Rzeszow, Poland […]

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Russian weaponry, captured by the IDF from Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon and Syria, may be starting to make its way to Ukraine, according to recent speculation. Western analysts have identified a series of American cargo aircraft movements from NATO's Ramstein base in Germany to Hatzerim base, and subsequently to the military airport in Rzeszow, Poland – the primary logistics hub for Western military aid to Ukraine.

A Ukrainian marine serviceman runs to take a position through the residential blocks in the frontline city of Vuhledar, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 25, 2023 (Evgeniy Maloletka)

A well-respected military analyst operating on the X social network under the name OSINT-Defender has documented specific flights of US Air Force C-17s to Hatzerim. The analyst mentioned earlier media reports indicating Israel was weighing the possibility of transferring Soviet-era weapons and equipment to Kyiv, including antitank missiles and other munitions. Additionally, the analyst cited previous American media coverage discussing the potential transfer of decommissioned Patriot air defense systems from Israel to Ukraine.

IDF reveals weapons cache seized during operations in villages and bunkers in southern Lebanon (Yossi Zeliger)

When contacted by Israel Hayom for comment, Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel Yevgen Korniychuk said, "I do not comment on rumors." It's important to note that any decision regarding Patriot system transfers would ultimately rest with the United States, as these systems remain US property. As for the Soviet weapons, if such a transfer has occurred, analysts suggest it could have been executed either through direct delivery to Ukraine or via an arrangement involving a third country. Sources in Kyiv indicate they have not received confirmation of any final decision on this matter.

Recently, Ambassador Korniychuk met with Deputy Minister Sharren Haskel, expressing gratitude for her previous initiative as a Knesset member to transfer captured Russian military equipment from Israel's northern front to Ukraine.

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These will be Trump's first actions in the White House https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/01/20/these-will-be-trumps-first-actions-in-the-white-house/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/01/20/these-will-be-trumps-first-actions-in-the-white-house/#respond Mon, 20 Jan 2025 16:00:23 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=1028925 "Within hours of taking office, I will sign dozens of executive orders—close to 100, to be exact. With a stroke of my pen I will revoke dozens of destructive and radical executive orders and actions of the Biden administration," President-elect Trump recently declared. Trump is expected to focus on the US-Mexico border and immigration policies. […]

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"Within hours of taking office, I will sign dozens of executive orders—close to 100, to be exact. With a stroke of my pen I will revoke dozens of destructive and radical executive orders and actions of the Biden administration," President-elect Trump recently declared.

Trump is expected to focus on the US-Mexico border and immigration policies. One executive order will declare an emergency at the border, allowing resources to be redirected from the Department of Defense to border security efforts. Additionally, the "Remain in Mexico" policy will be reinstated, requiring asylum seekers to stay in northern Mexico while their cases are adjudicated in US courts.

Trump also plans to designate international drug cartels, many of which operate in and out of Mexico, as "international terrorist organizations."

The US-Mexico border. Photo: Reuters

Another set of executive orders will address cultural issues in the US. The new administration will recognize only two biological sexes, male and female. This policy will effectively strip transgenders of certain rights in the US military and public schools, prohibit public funding for gender-transition surgeries, and mandate that biological sex be recorded in official documents. Additionally, the administration will overturn Biden-era orders aimed at promoting affirmative action policies (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion – DEI).

According to senior officials in Trump's transition team, these measures are part of an agenda to "restore sanity." One official described the order recognizing only two sexes as a means of "protecting women from the extremism of gender ideology" and "bringing biological truth back to the federal government." The executive order mandates the exclusive use of the term "sex" instead of "gender" in all official documents.

Other orders will revoke restrictions on drilling within and beyond US borders. They will also reinstate protections for certain federal employees and suspend the federal ban on TikTok, granting the Chinese-owned app additional time to secure a US-based buyer.

Among Trump's plans is the renaming of federal landmarks. The Gulf of Mexico will reportedly be renamed "America's Gulf" in federal documents. Additionally, the name of Alaska's Mount Denali - North America's tallest peak - will revert to "Mount McKinley," honoring former President William McKinley. President Barack Obama had changed the name to Denali in 2015, aligning with its historical name used by Indigenous peoples in the area.

These measures, Trump believes, will mark a significant step toward reversing what he views as detrimental changes implemented by the previous administration.

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'Dark son of a b****': Trump shares video blaming Netanyahu for Middle East conflicts https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/01/08/dark-son-of-a-b-trump-shares-video-blaming-netanyahu-for-middle-east-conflicts/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/01/08/dark-son-of-a-b-trump-shares-video-blaming-netanyahu-for-middle-east-conflicts/#respond Wed, 08 Jan 2025 06:30:30 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=1026051   Donald Trump shared a provocative video last night containing severe criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The video, posted by the president-elect on his Truth Social platform, features Professor Jeffrey David Sachs, a Columbia University economist, who attributes responsibility for the Syrian crisis to both the US and Israel. According to Sachs, "the […]

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Donald Trump shared a provocative video last night containing severe criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The video, posted by the president-elect on his Truth Social platform, features Professor Jeffrey David Sachs, a Columbia University economist, who attributes responsibility for the Syrian crisis to both the US and Israel. According to Sachs, "the Obama [administration] tasked the CIA to overthrow the Syrian government before Russia intervened." He further claims that the US sought war in Iraq and conducted focus groups to determine the most effective way to market the conflict. Sachs concluded by posing a pointed question: "Where did this war come from? It's quite surprising. That war came from Netanyahu actually."

"Netanyahu had, from 1995 onward, the theory that the only way we're going to get rid of Hamas and Hezbollah is by toppling the governments who support them, that's Iraq, Syria, and Iran. The guy is nothing if not obsessive, and he is still trying to get us to fight Iran this day, this week. He's a deep dark son of a b******, sorry to tell you."

This latest criticism from Professor Sachs follows a pattern of similar statements against Israel. Two weeks prior, during an interview on former judge and current commentator Andrew Peter Napolitano's YouTube channel, Sachs claimed Syria's collapse is "part of Netanyahu's strategy to expand Israel's territory, incorporating not only Palestine but portions of Syria, Lebanon, and even Egypt." In an Al Jazeera interview nine months earlier, he accused Israel of genocide and portrayed the US as complicit.

In 2018, Sachs advocated for US withdrawal from Syria (during its campaign against ISIS), questioned the application of the term genocide to China's treatment of the Uyghurs, and opposed Western support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. He gained prominence on Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov's program after suggesting US involvement in the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage in 2022.

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Ukraine lost 0.6% of its territory in 2024 https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/01/05/ukraine-lost-0-6-of-its-territory-in-2024/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/01/05/ukraine-lost-0-6-of-its-territory-in-2024/#respond Sat, 04 Jan 2025 23:28:18 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=1025279   In August 2024, Ukraine stunned the world—and Russia in particular—by launching a surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region, capturing more than 1,000 square kilometers. However, Ukraine's hold on the Russian Oblast has since shrunk by over half. Overall, Kyiv lost significantly more territory in 2024 than it captured in regards to Russian territory. An […]

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In August 2024, Ukraine stunned the world—and Russia in particular—by launching a surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region, capturing more than 1,000 square kilometers. However, Ukraine's hold on the Russian Oblast has since shrunk by over half. Overall, Kyiv lost significantly more territory in 2024 than it captured in regards to Russian territory.

An analysis by the Ukrainian military portal "Militarnyi" revealed that during 2024, Ukraine's security forces lost control of up to 3,600 square kilometers (about 1,390 square miles). For comparison, in 2023, Kyiv lost 540 square kilometers but managed to reclaim 430 square kilometers, mainly as part of a summer counteroffensive that ultimately ended in failure.

According to "Militarnyi," Russia's advantage in certain front-lines, with manpower ratios reaching as high as 8:1, played a pivotal role. Additionally, shifts in Russian tactics proved effective. Although Russian forces reportedly lose up to 1,000 soldiers daily (including killed and wounded), the cumulative toll has not halted their territorial gains. These advances account for the loss of 0.6% of Ukraine's total land area.

Ukrainian soldiers operate a field Gun in the Donetsk region. Photo: Reuters

During the fall and early winter, Russian advances accelerated. In June, they captured approximately 100 square kilometers at a pace of 3.4 square kilometers per day. By November, Russian flags were raised over 610 square kilometers, with a daily advance of 20.3 square kilometers.

The majority of Russian territorial gains occurred in the Donetsk region, securing about 2,740 square kilometers. "Militarnyi" predicts that Russia will continue to focus its efforts on capturing the cities of Kurakhove, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar in Donetsk. They are also expected to pursue full control of the Donetsk region.

Ukrainian forces near the border with Russia. Photo: Reuters

In the Luhansk region, Russia is likely to pressure Ukrainian forces to abandon the eastern bank of the Oskil River and establish a foothold on its western bank. Additionally, Russia may attempt to deploy forces on the western bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region, from which they were expelled in the fall of 2022. With the support of North Korean troops, Russia will likely continue its efforts to dismantle Ukraine's foothold in the Kursk region.

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Ukraine ceasefire imminent? Leading Kyiv journalist says fighting to stop soon https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/12/30/ukraine-ceasefire-imminent-leading-kyiv-journalist-says-fighting-to-stop-soon/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/12/30/ukraine-ceasefire-imminent-leading-kyiv-journalist-says-fighting-to-stop-soon/#respond Mon, 30 Dec 2024 06:10:16 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=1024055   Prominent Ukrainian journalist Dmitro Gordon has claimed that the hot phase of the Russia-Ukraine war could end within the next 24 hours, citing the recent pause in Russian attacks and hinting at a crucial diplomatic breakthrough. Speaking from Washington, Gordon's declaration has rapidly become the dominant topic of discussion across Russian and Ukrainian social […]

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Prominent Ukrainian journalist Dmitro Gordon has claimed that the hot phase of the Russia-Ukraine war could end within the next 24 hours, citing the recent pause in Russian attacks and hinting at a crucial diplomatic breakthrough.

Speaking from Washington, Gordon's declaration has rapidly become the dominant topic of discussion across Russian and Ukrainian social media platforms. He states that a "historic meeting" scheduled for Monday will be decisive in this matter, adding that "if everything proceeds according to plan – and everything should proceed according to plan."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy looks on as he meets soldiers at the site of the heaviest battles with the Russian invaders in Bakhmut, Ukraine, Dec. 20, 2022 (Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP) Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP

To support his forecast, Gordon highlights that Ukraine has experienced no air raid sirens, missile launches, or drone attacks from Russia over the past four days. He attributes this pause to "an explicit request from Washington." Gordon places the likelihood of his scenario unfolding at 90-95%, asserting, "I haven't lost my grip on reality."

While Gordon offered no additional details, social media users have expressed considerable skepticism about the prediction, particularly given his reputation for making sensational claims. Nevertheless, the significance of the subject matter and his position as the country's most followed media personality (measured by subscription numbers and viewership across various platforms) have made this forecast impossible to dismiss.

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Report: Russia launches production of mobile nuclear shelters https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/11/19/report-russia-launches-production-of-mobile-nuclear-shelters/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/11/19/report-russia-launches-production-of-mobile-nuclear-shelters/#respond Tue, 19 Nov 2024 14:00:18 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=1012755   Russian media sources reported Tuesday the start of serial production of mobile shelters engineered to protect against multiple threats, including blast waves and radiation from nuclear detonations. The Russian Emergency Ministry's research institute revealed that the shelter, resembling a reinforced protective unit, designated as "KUB-M," is designed to sustain occupants for up to 48 […]

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Russian media sources reported Tuesday the start of serial production of mobile shelters engineered to protect against multiple threats, including blast waves and radiation from nuclear detonations. The Russian Emergency Ministry's research institute revealed that the shelter, resembling a reinforced protective unit, designated as "KUB-M," is designed to sustain occupants for up to 48 hours.

The developers explain that the "KUB" comprises two distinct modules: a main shelter accommodating 54 civilians and a technical facility. The unit can be enhanced with water desalination systems, diesel-powered generators, and additional equipment.

A view of the water nuclear reactor at Arak, Iran (Reuters) Reuters

"The mobile shelter serves as a multipurpose protective structure against various threats, from natural disasters to man-made catastrophes," developers stated, characterizing it as "a crucial advancement in civilian protection measures."

The announcement follows the Biden administration's decision to permit Ukraine to deploy long-range US missiles within Russian territory - a move the Kremlin condemned as reckless, warning it would trigger a Moscow response.

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Trump or Harris? Forecasting models give Democrats sliver of hope https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/11/05/trump-or-harris-forecasting-models-give-democrats-sliver-of-hope/ https://www.israelhayom.com/2024/11/05/trump-or-harris-forecasting-models-give-democrats-sliver-of-hope/#respond Mon, 04 Nov 2024 23:20:15 +0000 https://www.israelhayom.com/?p=1009605   As millions of Americans prepare to head to the polls, major election forecasting models have updated their final predictions, offering Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign a cautiously optimistic outlook, though the race remains extraordinarily close. Leading polling analyst Nate Silver, who had consistently favored former President Donald Trump's electoral prospects in recent weeks, released […]

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As millions of Americans prepare to head to the polls, major election forecasting models have updated their final predictions, offering Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign a cautiously optimistic outlook, though the race remains extraordinarily close.

Leading polling analyst Nate Silver, who had consistently favored former President Donald Trump's electoral prospects in recent weeks, released his final forecast this morning, giving the Democratic candidate a razor-thin advantage for the first time in months.

The crowd reacts as US Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris addresses supporters at a campaign event in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA, Nov. 4, 2024. Photo credit: EPA/David Muse EPA

The margin, however, is virtually imperceptible: Silver's model gives Harris a 50.015% probability of securing the Electoral College, while the Republican candidate stands at 49.985%.

The 538 forecast has also adjusted its outlook, now showing Trump at 50% and Harris at 49%. Simultaneously, The Economist, which had previously leaned toward Trump, now projects an even 50-50 split. Their model indicates Trump has been losing momentum over the past week, shedding five percentage points that shifted to Harris' column.

The JHK forecast detected similar movement. While yesterday's projection gave Trump a 52% chance of victory, this morning's update reversed course, suggesting a 51% win probability for the vice president.

Republican presidential candidate and former US President Donald Trump arrives at a campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, USA, Nov. 4, 2024. Photo credit: EPA/CJ Gunther EPA

This Democratic uptick may have been catalyzed by AtlasIntel's latest survey, a polling organization that had consistently shown strong numbers for Trump throughout the campaign and is widely incorporated into forecasting models. Their final poll, conducted over the weekend, showed Trump leading by just one percentage point.

The Hill's forecast stands alone in maintaining its previous prediction, continuing to give the Republican candidate a 54% chance of victory.

Meanwhile, betting markets, which have reemerged as a significant indicator in this election cycle, show increasing confidence in the Republican candidate: Kalshi's platform indicates a 57% probability of his victory, while Polymarket places his chances near 60%.

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