In August 2024, Ukraine stunned the world—and Russia in particular—by launching a surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region, capturing more than 1,000 square kilometers. However, Ukraine's hold on the Russian Oblast has since shrunk by over half. Overall, Kyiv lost significantly more territory in 2024 than it captured in regards to Russian territory.
An analysis by the Ukrainian military portal "Militarnyi" revealed that during 2024, Ukraine's security forces lost control of up to 3,600 square kilometers (about 1,390 square miles). For comparison, in 2023, Kyiv lost 540 square kilometers but managed to reclaim 430 square kilometers, mainly as part of a summer counteroffensive that ultimately ended in failure.
According to "Militarnyi," Russia's advantage in certain front-lines, with manpower ratios reaching as high as 8:1, played a pivotal role. Additionally, shifts in Russian tactics proved effective. Although Russian forces reportedly lose up to 1,000 soldiers daily (including killed and wounded), the cumulative toll has not halted their territorial gains. These advances account for the loss of 0.6% of Ukraine's total land area.
During the fall and early winter, Russian advances accelerated. In June, they captured approximately 100 square kilometers at a pace of 3.4 square kilometers per day. By November, Russian flags were raised over 610 square kilometers, with a daily advance of 20.3 square kilometers.
The majority of Russian territorial gains occurred in the Donetsk region, securing about 2,740 square kilometers. "Militarnyi" predicts that Russia will continue to focus its efforts on capturing the cities of Kurakhove, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar in Donetsk. They are also expected to pursue full control of the Donetsk region.
In the Luhansk region, Russia is likely to pressure Ukrainian forces to abandon the eastern bank of the Oskil River and establish a foothold on its western bank. Additionally, Russia may attempt to deploy forces on the western bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region, from which they were expelled in the fall of 2022. With the support of North Korean troops, Russia will likely continue its efforts to dismantle Ukraine's foothold in the Kursk region.
