As millions of Americans prepare to head to the polls, major election forecasting models have updated their final predictions, offering Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign a cautiously optimistic outlook, though the race remains extraordinarily close.
Leading polling analyst Nate Silver, who had consistently favored former President Donald Trump's electoral prospects in recent weeks, released his final forecast this morning, giving the Democratic candidate a razor-thin advantage for the first time in months.
The margin, however, is virtually imperceptible: Silver's model gives Harris a 50.015% probability of securing the Electoral College, while the Republican candidate stands at 49.985%.
The 538 forecast has also adjusted its outlook, now showing Trump at 50% and Harris at 49%. Simultaneously, The Economist, which had previously leaned toward Trump, now projects an even 50-50 split. Their model indicates Trump has been losing momentum over the past week, shedding five percentage points that shifted to Harris' column.
The JHK forecast detected similar movement. While yesterday's projection gave Trump a 52% chance of victory, this morning's update reversed course, suggesting a 51% win probability for the vice president.
This Democratic uptick may have been catalyzed by AtlasIntel's latest survey, a polling organization that had consistently shown strong numbers for Trump throughout the campaign and is widely incorporated into forecasting models. Their final poll, conducted over the weekend, showed Trump leading by just one percentage point.
The Hill's forecast stands alone in maintaining its previous prediction, continuing to give the Republican candidate a 54% chance of victory.
Meanwhile, betting markets, which have reemerged as a significant indicator in this election cycle, show increasing confidence in the Republican candidate: Kalshi's platform indicates a 57% probability of his victory, while Polymarket places his chances near 60%.
