The debut speech this week by former IDF chief and founder of the Israel Resilience party Benny Gantz shook up the political scene, and pollsters scrambled to see how it would influence potential voters.
According to a poll commissioned by Israel Hayom and i24NEWS, if the Knesset election were held today, the Likud would win 28 seats, and Gantz's party would win 19.
The Israel Hayom-i24NEWS poll showed the worst results yet for Labor, which was predicted to win a mere five seats. Yesh Atid lost ground as Gantz gained, dropping to nine seats.
The poll surveyed a representative sample of 510 respondents and had a margin of error of +/- 4.3%.
Recent splits on both the Right and Left have created a large number of small parties – some of which might still merge ahead of the election – that are currently hovering near the minimum electoral threshold of 3.25%, or four seats.
MK Orly Levy-Abekasis's Gesher party was predicted to win four seats, as were the Shas and Meretz, while Habayit Hayehudi-National Union would win three seats. Three seats were also projected for the Arab party Ta'al, formerly part of the Joint Arab List and Yisrael Beytenu.
On Thursday, Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid denied a report in Israel Hayom that senior officials in his party were threatening to "take out" Gantz politically if he did not join forces with Yesh Atid.
Lapid hinted that his party and Gantz were in negotiations to form a joint ticket. The Israel Hayom-i24NEWS poll asked respondents about a scenario in which Gantz and Lapid would run as a single ticket along with former IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi. The result: together, Israel Resilience and Yesh Atid would win 32 seats, surpassing Likud (30 seats) and leaving Labor below the minimum threshold with only three seats.
According to the poll, if Lapid and Gantz form a joint front against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, none of the following parties would pass the minimum threshold: Labor, Gesher, Hatnuah, Habayit Hayehudi-National Union, Yisrael Beytenu, Shas, and Ta'al.
The poll also tried to pin down respondents' perception of Gantz's political leanings. One-quarter said they did not know how to define him. If that 25% is dropped, 52% of respondents see Gantz as a centrist candidate, 19% see him as a right-winger, and 29% see him as left-wing.
When asked which candidate they saw as most qualified to be prime minister, 38% picked Netanyahu, compared to 22% who favored Gantz.
