Leaders from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar will beat a path to U.S. President Donald Trump's door for back-to-back visits in the next few weeks, but the talks are unlikely to resolve the long-running dispute among the U.S.'s Persian Gulf allies.
Washington is keen to end the standoff between Qatar and several other Arab nations, which has divided the Gulf Cooperation Council group of nations and has hurt U.S.-led efforts to maintain a strong front against Iran.
The United States was hoping to host a U.S.-GCC summit later this year, but the prospects of that happening appear slim, given that the rival leaders are still at odds.
"They [the sides in the dispute] don't see eye to eye. They're not ready to solve this crisis," a senior administration official said.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt cut off travel and trade ties with Qatar last June, accusing it of backing their archrival Iran and supporting terrorism. Qatar denies the charges and says the boycott is an attempt to impinge on its sovereignty and rein in its support for reform.
The U.S. has strong alliances with the rival sides. Qatar hosts the largest U.S. airbase in the region, which has been crucial to its military campaign against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.
At the same time, the Trump administration has forged even closer ties with Qatar's rivals, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will meet with Trump in Washington on Tuesday. The Qatar dispute is unlikely to be at the forefront of issues the young leader will want to discuss, diplomats say.
Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani is scheduled to meet Trump in the White House on April 10.
And, keen to have the last word with Trump, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed has asked to meet with Trump after the president's meeting with the Qatari emir, the senior administration official said. The prince was originally due to meet with Trump on March 27.
"Mohammed bin Zayed, in fact, had asked Trump to be last," the official said. No date has yet been set for that meeting.
The leaders are likely to speak with Trump about countering Iran, combating Islamist extremism, and deepening economic and military partnerships.
"There appears to be little to gain – and a bit to lose – in Gulf partners agreeing to another U.S.-GCC summit of leaders hosted by President Trump at Camp David," said a former senior U.S. official who worked on regional issues.
"They have more to gain prosecuting their independent agendas in the bilateral visits to Washington already scheduled."
The boycott of Qatar has disrupted its imports and triggered the withdrawal of billions of dollars from Qatari banks by customers from the four Arab states.
Qatar, the world's top exporter of liquefied natural gas, developed new trade routes and moved tens of billions of dollars from its massive sovereign wealth fund to protect its banks.
The UAE in particular bristles at alleged Qatari support for Islamists throughout the region.
The Trump administration is worried that the split among the Sunni Muslim U.S. allies may benefit Iran in the tussle for influence in the Middle East.
Neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE feels that its demands to resolve the dispute have been met. At the start of the crisis, the four countries sent Qatar a list of 13 demands, including closing the state-funded Al Jazeera television station and reducing ties to Iran.
While Qatar has increased its lobbying efforts in Washington, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi see the dispute as a "minor irritant, not an urgent problem. It's one that they can live with for a very long time, that it's not affecting U.S. interests," said Rob Malley, head of the International Crisis Group think tank, who met recently with Saudi officials.
"They want to treat it as part of the furniture and not as something that requires immediate attention," Malley said.
An apparently contradictory approach from the White House is also complicating U.S. efforts to mediate in the dispute.
Trump at first swung decisively behind the Saudis and Emiratis, calling Qatar "a funder for terrorism."
But under pressure from recently fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, he has since moderated his stance, calling for Gulf unity.
Qatar had grown more confident in support from Washington, which recently hosted joint high-level talks.
A senior U.S. official with knowledge of the U.S. mediation effort said there was still some willingness among the Gulf allies to begin a dialogue.
"They're beginning to realize that this only plays into the hands of the Iranians, Syrians and Russians and it's time to figure out how to resolve these issues," the official said.
"Intellectually they know this has to be resolved, and it will only get worse and affect things. ... Viscerally they would love to continue it in some way because the feelings are so strong."
