Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman pinned his decision Wednesday to resign as defense minister on what he called the government's anemic policy on Palestinian terrorism in the Gaza Strip. He was not entirely wrong. Israel's latest moves in Gaza were weak and dangerous, and the prime minister and his cabinet are as responsible for that as the heads of the defense establishment, who, for some reason championed capitulating to Hamas.
But Lieberman's assertions that, from day one, his was the only dissenting voice opposing this policy of capitulation, or that he was the only one pushing to deliver a painful blow to Hamas, is far from true.
Overall, the real reason for his resignation has less to do with the residents of Israel's Gaza-vicinity communities or the parents of the soldiers whose bodies are being held in Gaza, and more to do with his chances of successfully weathering the 2019 elections.
The government's decision to opt for yet another cease-fire with Hamas in the wake of this week's flare-up in Gaza, the fiercest since 2014, has been widely criticized by the public.
Lieberman sensed this, leading him to conclude that staying in office would subject him to scathing criticism from other right-wing lawmakers, undoubtedly led by Habayit Hayehudi Chairman Naftali Bennett. Had he stayed in office, he would have spent months being raked over the coals. The last thing he planned to do was to take it lying down, especially in an election year.
Lieberman's decision to pre-emptively resign was to be expected, if only because this is his usual modus operandi. Lieberman is a serial quitter and going into elections from the benches of the opposition is a familiar strategic move on his part.
In 2008, he resigned as of strategic affairs minister in Ehud Olmert's government to do just that. In the run-up to the 2015 elections, he dissolved his partnership with Likud – over Gaza – and launched an adversarial election campaign. Now that the smell of elections is in the air, Lieberman is doing what he always does: exiting the coalition to run from the position of the preacher at the gate, on a hawkish platform that out-rights the Right.
At the press conference he convened Wednesday, Lieberman presented a series of substantive disagreements between him and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on security issues. In fact, he listed almost every bitter pill that right-wing voters have been struggling to swallow in relation to the government's policy in Gaza and declared that he had tried to prevent every one at all cost.
But this is not an entirely accurate description. At most, Lieberman disapproved of government moves for the record, but he certainly didn't vehemently oppose anything. If anything, for months he has been explaining the shift in his position, going from pledging to eliminate Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and toppling Hamas rule in Gaza to supporting a vague plan meant to bring about an even more ambiguous change in the coastal enclave.
The big question now is whether Lieberman remains a part of the nationalist camp or not. Netanyahu is counting on a majority of MKs to support him as prime minister after the elections, but whether or not he can count Lieberman among them has come under question. Forging an alliance with Bennett seems like the safest option for Netanyahu, despite the overt personal animosity between the two.
Officials in the Prime Minister's Office stressed Wednesday that Netanyahu would rather avoid elections at this time. Still, he needs Bennett and Kulanu leader Moshe Kahlon's support to stall and fend off Lieberman at the polls.
Bennett is not keen on early elections either. The price he is seeking from Netanyahu – to be named defense minister in Lieberman's place – is high, but not impossible. He may agree to compromise and accept the foreign affairs portfolio, which Netanyahu also holds.
Kahlon's position is more of an enigma. He has no over-the-top expectations and has made no outrageous demands in exchange for his coalition support, as the only thing guiding his decision whether or not to remain in the coalition is his own interests.
Kulanu is likely to face serious challenges in the next elections, but if Kahlon decides that's what is best for him politically, there is nothing Netanyahu could offer him as an alternative.
Still, it is not elections that have Netanyahu worried – it is the makeup of the next coalition. At this time, the coalition remains standing even without Yisrael Beytenu, as it still numbers 61 MKs, but there is no way of knowing how strong a future Likud-led coalition will be.
A coalition without Yisrael Beytenu, numbering 60 or even 59 MKs, could collapse before it is even established, as Lieberman would not hesitate to support anyone else – including Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid or Zionist Union leader Avi Gabbay – to block Netanyahu and head the next government instead. The result may cost the Right its hold on power.
This means Netanyahu needs Bennett, as this type of alliance could push Lieberman toward the Left during the election campaign, thus minimizing any electoral damage he could do to Netanyahu.
As far as the political base of both Habayit Hayehudi and Likud is concerned, joining forces is a natural move, one that should have been pursued from the get-go and has been sidelined so far only because of the personal difference between Netanyahu and Bennett. Such a move has its risks for both sides, but the potential benefits far outweigh them.
Netanyahu will not find it easy to entrust the defense portfolio to his biggest political rival (after Lieberman). Such a move might see voters migrate from Likud to Habayit Hayehudi, crushing Netanyahu's dream of winning 40 Knesset seats. Then again, doing so would ensure that, barring extreme cases like the eviction of Judea and Samaria settlements, Habayit Hayehudi will never have an interest in toppling the government.
And then there is the second option – naming Construction and Housing Minister Yoav Gallant, a former GOC Southern Command and a Kulanu lawmaker, as defense minister.
This seems politically far-fetched, but if there is any minister who Netanyahu wants to promote, it is Gallant. The latter has been a steadfast supporter of Netanyahu's policy in Gaza and it remains to be seen if the prime minister is grateful enough to reward him with such a senior appointment.
