Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and MK Gideon Sa'ar's short yet intense primary campaigns came to an end on Wednesday, as the ruling party's 116,048 registered members were asked to decide who will be their next leader – and who will navigate the 2020 election campaign.
Likud has set up 106 voting stations nationwide, which will open at 7 a.m. and close at 11 p.m. The final results will be announced tomorrow morning. Internal polls have shown Netanyahu is likely to win, but Sa'ar is expected to prove a substantial rival.
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The stormy weather has dampened hopes for high voter turnout and Likud officials in both camps have been sparing no effort to urge the party's registered members to brave the wind and rain and cast their ballots in an internal election that many believe will determine the Likud's standing going into the next general election
The March 2 vote will be the first time in Israel's history that the public will vote in a third election in the same year. They were called after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to form a government following the April 9 election, and after neither Netanyahu nor challenger Blue and White leader Benny Gantz were able to do so following the Sept. 17 vote.
Sa'ar is expected to draw at least 30% of the votes. Sources in his camp said that anything under that number will be considered a failure. Should he secure 30%-40% of the votes, his position in the party will grow stronger, and anything over 40% will pose a serious challenge for Netanyahu.
Likud insiders said that regardless of the results, the primaries have woken up the party's wary constituency, something that will likely be reflected in the polls come March.
For Netanyahu, the primary represents the first serious challenge to his leadership of the party in 14 years. After failing to form governments in two successive elections this year, and with criminal indictments looming over him for alleged breach of trust and bribery, many longtime Likud members are questioning whether he can still deliver a Likud-led government.
While challenger Sa'ar does not have Netanyahu's leadership experience, he has served in several ministerial posts. However, his strongest advantage is that Blue and White would not be averse to joining a Likud government under his leadership, nor will it shay away from inviting him to join a national unity government should Gantz win the next election.
Still, the majority of Likud's ministers and senior MKs, including Foreign Ministry Israel Katz, Tourism Minister Yariv Levin and Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan, have endorsed Netanyahu in the primaries. Sa'ar, for his part, has been endorsed by MKs Yoav Kisch, Yehuda Glick, and Sharren Haskel.
Netanyahu: I've dedicated my life to Likud
Appealing to voters in a special message in Israel Hayom, Netanyahu noted his national and international achievements on Israel's behalf.
"Under my leadership, we have marked tremendous achievements for Israel. The economy is booming. Employment, GDP per capita, average wages, minimum wages, exports, tourism, investments – are all at an all-time high, while unemployment is at an all-time low.
"We brought American recognition of our sovereignty in the Golan, in Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and the legality of Jewish settlement in Judea and Samaria. We have turned Israel into a superpower. I am proud to have led the free economy, security buildup, and political boom of all time. I did it on your behalf, with great national pride."
Netanyahu further said that his "fight against a nuclear Iran stopped it in every arena. Had it not been for these efforts, Iran would have had nuclear weapons years ago. We are preventing it from basing itself in Syria and we are bringing closer Arab states that are already openly talking about normalization and peace with Israel.
"I am proud that you have entrusted me with the privilege to secure all these great achievements and I ask you for the mandate to bring more great achievements our way. I have dedicate my life to the Likud and now I ask for your confidence. Go vote despite the stormy weather. Vote for me, for you, for our movement and our country," Netanyahu wrote.
Sa'ar: We are at risk of losing the leadership
Sa'ar, for his part, stressed that the Likud was in a crucial need for a leadership change.
"My brothers and sisters in the Likud – today's primaries today are fateful, for both the Likud and the state. There is a public majority that supports our way. But after losing the majority in the Knesset for the first time in a decade and failing to form a government twice change is necessary. If we fail to change Likud's leadership today, we run the very real risk of losing to our rival come the March 2 elections," he wrote.
"The polls consistently prove that only I can bolster the right-wing bloc and form a strong Likud government. Only I can bring home voters who left us, and only I can bring in new voters. I am the only one who can unite the public, and that is something we need today, more than ever."
"We have to free the country from the ongoing torture of endless election campaigns and finally address the challenges it faces and the issues on the public agenda: Education, health, periphery, law reform and the Gaza problem," he concluded.
JNS.org contributed to this report.
