Let's assume you happen to be in a small town in Pennsylvania or Michigan, or in the fields of Wisconsin and Iowa, and you see a group of locals. If you ask them what they think of presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, they will have a hard time answering.
Even if they eventually say something, it would not be definitive, and you are likely to get a very boring answer. In fact, whatever they think about Biden, they will say it without passion.
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Biden, for better or for worse, does not generate great antagonism or an outpouring of affection. For the vast majority of Americans, despite serving as vice president for eight years, he is still an unknown entity.
This is both his strength and his weakness as he prepares to challenge President Donald Trump, on whom everyone has an opinion.
The fact that voters can't quite size him up gives him a particular boost when it comes to swing voters and all others who refuse to affiliate with any particular party. These constituents include many who are disappointed with the 45th president and are willing to take their chances with someone else.
Biden comes off as someone with whom you would gladly grab a beer, and that is a very important metric. But when you are up against an incumbent president who has a movement behind him and a base of diehard loyal supporters who rile against the establishment, you are at a disadvantage right from the get-go, even if the polls show that you are ahead.
Unlike the polls, which look at the overall sentiment toward and support of candidates, focus groups show a much more interesting picture. Last week, CNN reported that according to focus groups in swing states – i.e. the purple states that can go either way –Trump has a clear advantage.
It doesn't mean that these states are a shoo-in for his reelection, but it does mean that he can relate to the voters there more easily than Biden and will have an easier time winning their vote.
Many of the voters there voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008 but then sided with Trump in 2016, and still think they made the right choice. They want 2020 to be a validation of their choice, and are eager to find a good rationale to vote for Trump again. It won't be easy for Trump to do that, especially because 2016 boiled down to about 70,000 votes in three states, mostly in the suburbs. If those numbers shift even slightly, he will become a one-term president.
"They think a businessman is best suited to turn the country around economically. They feel COVID-19 was not Trump's fault, and he's doing the best he can to contain it. They conflate the Black Lives Matter protesters with the rioters attacking federal buildings and retail shops. They don't want historic monuments torn down. And they dismiss defunding the police as ridiculous," CNN reported.
This is exactly the sentiment Trump seeks to capitalize on. He knows that the undecided voters in the middle class like Biden, but they like the values Trump has been championing even more: stability, law and order, and pride in America. Trump will try to run on these themes, and Biden will have to find a way to distance himself from the radical Left.
Too careful of a campaign
While Trump continues to hold support among the blue-collar voters without a college degree, this is not the case among educated suburban voters (who supported him with a razor-slim margin in 2016). The latter group has been turned off by his perceived failure to tackle the coronavirus pandemic.
This is the opening Biden can exploit by splitting the coalition of voters that propelled Trump to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and "bring home" the suburban voters who went with the maverick in 2016 mainly because of their dislike of Hillary Clinton. These voters are very intrigued by what Biden has to offer and want to channel their disappointment with the president through his rival.
Biden's only hope of winning in November is by taking votes from the coalition Trump built-in 2016, splitting the working class in the coal-mining towns and factories from the white-collar voters in the suburbs. On the other hand, Trump's only path to winning is if he drives up enthusiasm among his core supporters in his base to offset any defections.
Over the past several months, Biden has managed to gain momentum because voters perceive him as the alternative to Trump. Whereas the president has been inconsistent in his coronavirus response, and with the pandemic ever-intensifying, a Biden presidency has become particularly appealing to voters who seek a solution, even if there is a long way to go before Biden can take the oath of office.
In fact, Biden now appears to have adopted Hillary Clinton's failed strategy from 2016: to run as the anti-Trump. Apparently encouraged by his rise in the polls, including in battleground states that will decided the election, Biden is doing everything he can not to rock the boat. He is pursuing a cautious, even too cautious campaign, and this has had a price: Trump has been able to steal his thunder and grab the limelight time and again.
Indirect smear ads
The second half of August will be critical for Biden. For the first time, the US media will dedicate hours upon hours of primetime coverage for Biden, who will become the official party nominee at the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee.
When he accepts the nomination, he will also get a chance to introduce himself to the American people, along with his yet-to-be-announced female vice presidential pick. Together, the two will have to show that they are willing to fight for every vote; that they are taking voters seriously.
Biden is not Clinton, whom Republicans successfully pigeonholed as an elitist liberal. Biden, who grew up in the working-class town of Scranton, PA, is still considered to be a man of the people (even though he has been part of the Washington establishment for the past 40 odd years).
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The GOP won't be able to paint Biden as another Clinton, but Trump will do his utmost to remind people that he was Barack Obama's right-hand man as well as conjure up other memories from the previous administration, hoping this would turn away voters from the new face on the ballot.
Trump has realized the emerging threat posed by Biden. The fact that the Trump campaign decided pull ads off the air for several days in battleground states underscores this concern. When the ads came back, they no longer attacked the Democratic candidate, but his surrogates, casting him as an extremist by association.
Campaign 2020 is like 2016 all over again, with a twist. Like in 2016, the statistical models and the conventional wisdom cannot be applied because voters' mindset cannot be truly understood, be it because of the coronavirus, because of Trump, or because everything has changed over the past 4 years.
But there is one thing Trump has to change fast lest it be too late. He has to offer people hope. Voters may not blame him for the coronavirus pandemic or for the recession, but they believe he is responsible to chart a path forward. The electorate almost always votes for the person who provides an optimistic vision and a good reason to get up in the morning.
