US President Donald Trump's coronavirus infection raises two issues: How will Trump fare health-wise as the virus progresses and how will Trump's contraction of coronavirus impact the presidential race?
With regard to the former, the President is 74 years old and overweight. This elevates his risk factors and make his physicians' decision to aggressively treat his virus with multiple protocols seems wise. Moreover, given his risk factors, the "abundance of caution" that led his doctors to hospitalize him at Walter Reed Army Medical Center is entirely justified. The President of the United States by rights ought to be monitored around the clock to ensure his swift and full return to health, especially when he is 74.
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As far as politics are concerned, as is the case in Israel, in the US people's perception of the virus and the threat it poses to public health is significantly influenced by where they stand politically. But there are important differences.
In Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the political Right take the virus very seriously and support policies involving lockdowns to cut infection rates. In contrast, Israel's media and political Left have adopted a much more cavalier attitude towards the virus. The mass media outlets have given prominent and sympathetic coverage to "experts" who downplay the threat the virus poses to public health. The Left and the media provide wall-to-wall support to the increasingly anarchist protests against Netanyahu even as those protests undermine public discipline, which is necessary to lower infection rates and enable the country can reopen.
In the US the picture is turned on its head. Democrats and progressives along with the mass media have played up the threat the virus poses to public health. With the glaring exception of their across-the-board support for protesters and rioters from Antifa and BlackLivesMatter, the Democrats and the media insist the country should be shut down, masks should be mandatory and everyone who fails to wear a mask should be harangued as a sociopath who endangers public health.
Facing them, Trump and the Republicans have taken a more relaxed position on the virus. Trump has emphasized social distancing more than mask wearing and is careful to note that there is no unanimity among scientists regarding the necessity of wearing masks in all circumstances. Republicans have advocated hard on behalf of opening the economy for business including schools. Republican-run states are much more likely to have schools and businesses open than Democrat-run states.
Another parallel between Israeli and US politics is that in both countries, swing voters that move between the two warring political camps on the Left and Right have all but dried up. Whereas, historically some 20 percent of American voters were undecided at this point in presidential elections, today, a mere ten percent of voters have yet to decide who they intend to vote for. Moreover, it is hard to assess how many of still undecided voters intend to vote.
As a consequence, perhaps uniquely neither the Democrat nor the Republican campaigns in 2020 have been geared towards swing voters. Instead, both Trump and Democrat nominee former vice president Joe Biden have both focused on mobilizing their bases to get out and vote.
In Biden's case, mobilizing his party's base has required him to kowtow to the party's progressive – and deeply radical – grassroots at the expense of independent and undecided voters. To this end, he chose Senator Kamala Harris as is running-mate. Harris has the most left- wing voting record in the Senate.
Since swing voters are a lesser concern for the campaigns and given that Americans view the coronavirus through the partisan lens, the main question is whether Trump's contraction of the coronavirus will impact his base's enthusiasm.
It is possible that on the margins, some of his supporters will agree with the Democrats and the media that claim that he is reaping what he sowed. On the other hand, many of his voters will view his infection as further proof of his humanity and it will reinforce his image as a man of the people for them.
Whatever the case may be, all in all, assuming Trump makes a full and speedy recovery, it is unlikely that his coronavirus infection will have a decisive impact on the election.
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