The road to the White House goes through Florida. Everyone already knows the mantra that is repeated in every presidential election: Florida, Florida, Florida.
Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama – they all won in Florida when they were running for a second term. Trump is hoping that he won't break that streak. The numbers give him reason to believe that Florida won't break with tradition: the Republicans have built an enormous system of voter registry, and have a strategic advantage because of the support of state's important Cuban-American community. However, the year of COVID is upsetting everything.
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The American president finds himself on the defensive in every state he wants to win, even when they're supposed to be in his pocket. He isn't letting up, and is attacking the media, which he claims has enlisted to push him out and is ignoring alleged corruption by the Biden family – all because of how he handled the COVID crisis as president.
But on Thursday, out of the clear blue sky, very positive data about the American economy was published: the rate of growth reached 33% in the last quarter, despite the pandemic. If there's anything that can save the president, it's a flourishing economy, and especially the sense that America is headed in the right direction. The "right direction index" is an important one, and Trump is expected to bring up these numbers over and over until Nov. 3 in order to make that index a positive on in the minds of the voters.
Florida, this exciting state, is a microcosm of America, with all the political drive and every variety of tribalism based on generation, class, ideology, and race you could find. This is why Trump and Joe Biden took their campaigns there yesterday: they both held rallies in Tampa on the west coast of the Sunshine State.
On Thursday, the president held a huge rally, while the other guy held a drive-by rally that night. The person who introduced Trump was his wife, Melania, who generally doesn't speak at events like these. When Trump approached the podium, they exchanged a long hug and kiss. She reminded the audience, "We didn't just talk about it, we moved our embassy to Jerusalem."
Biden is predicting a win
Trump praised the economic success of his presidency. "Now it's very much bigger than any GDP we've ever had. You have to go back to the 1950s," he said, proud of the economic data that came out on Thursday. "They won't even talk about it. This is the biggest event in business in 50 years."
His opponent, Joe Biden, held his own rally in the town of Coconut Creek prior to arriving in Tampa early in the morning, Israel time. He made predictions to the people who came to his drive-by in their cars that "If Florida goes blue, it's over." Later, after the paper went to press, Biden was supposed to hold another election event in the state, also in Tampa – hours after Trump was there.
This year, the campaigns upgraded the mantra "Florida, Florida, Florida" to "Florida, Pennsylvania, Florida." It looks like no one knows which state is more important: the first, which gives 29 electoral votes to the winner and where early voting is a well-oiled machine that was put in place long before we knew what COVID was; or the second, which gives the winner 20 electoral votes, and was a blue state for 30 years until Trump "stole" it in 2016.
Focusing on Pennsylvania could lead to a victory in states in the critical Midwest, like Michigan and Wisconsin, but on the other hand, it's easier to campaign in Florida. It's a tough dilemma. Some 80 million people have already cast ballots in early voting, including 8 million in Florida. Based on a breakdown of voting districts, as of Thursday the Democrats seemed to have an advantage in early voting of some 200,000 votes.
This is no surprise, because the GOP tends to vote closer to Election Day and on the day itself.
We need to remember that Florida is very diverse, and the regular voter demographics don't always apply. For example, in the Latino community, the Cubans are dominant and they tend toward the Republicans. So the Democrats are putting their faith in other Latino sectors to balance them out, particularly Puerto Ricans who live in Florida.
'People are sick of it'
Biden also has a problem with young Black males when it comes to how excited they are about him, so his vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris, whose father is Black, will arrive this weekend to initiate a campaign and is also expected to bring in Indian Americans.
Biden is in trouble with Hispanics, but he might be able to take comfort in the fact that polls show that retirees are no longer in Trump's pocket like they were four years ago, because of COVID. Like in every election, it is likely that voters will "return home" in the next few days. Of course, we mustn't forget the Jews. Although the vast majority of them are expected to vote for Biden, older Jewish voters should be flocking to the polls and they are considered supporters of Trump because of what he has done for Israel.
An article in The Palm Beach Post said it was possible that polls aren't paying attention to the older Jewish Democrats who have switched sides in the last four years because the progressive wing is taking over their party.
It quoted one Jewish senior named Andre Fladell, a Democratic power broker in the community, who said, "The Jewish senior population has watched, over the past six years, a deterioration in Democratic support of Israel," Fladell said. "Trump has been extraordinarily strong for Israel … The voters are disgusted with both parties."
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If either side has a significant lead on the eve of the election in Florida, we will be able to call its electoral votes by 9 a.m. EST. But neither side really thinks this will happen, given the early voting records set this year. The polling average in the state isn't consistent, but in almost all of them the leader is meaningless, because the advantage lies in the margin of error.
So this year, too, "Florida, Florida, Florida" is mostly a big question mark, times three.
