The Knesset has yet to vote on its dissolution, but polls are already showing that the decision by MK Gideon Sa'ar to leave Likud and form his own party with hopes of challenging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rattled the political system.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
A poll commissioned by Israel Hayom Thursday showed that the decision would see the right-wing parties duke it out for the public's support, while support for the Left continues to decline.
The survey was conducted by the Maagar Mochot polling institute among 525 respondents comprising a representative sample of Israelis 18 and over. The statistical margin of error is 4.3 percentage points.
Were the election held at this time, the poll found that Likud would win 28 Knesset seats, while Sa'ar party, which has yet to be named, would secure 20 mandates, making it the second-largest faction in parliament.
The Joint Arab List would win 13 seats, followed by Yesh Atid (12), Yamina (12), ultra-Orthodox Sephardi party Shas (9), Blue and White (7), Ashkenazi Haredi party United Torah Judaism (7), Yisrael Beytenu (6), and Meretz, with six seats.
As previous polls have shown, the Labor, Gesher, Habayit Hayehudi, Derech Eretz, and the far-Right Otzma Yehudit parties are not expected to pass the prerequisite four-Knesset-seat electoral threshold.
These results make it possible for Netanyahu to form a coalition with the Haredi parties and Bennett, but political insiders said such a combination would be unstable at best, adding that a future alliance with Blue and White was highly unlikely.
Still, even if projections prove true with regard to the performance of Sa'ar's party in the polls, he will find it difficult to form a coalition without Likud.
His party, joined by Yamina, Yesh Atid, Blue and White and Yisrael Beytenu still only reaches 57 Knesset seats – four short of the 61 mandates needed to form a government. To secure them Sa'ar would have to reach out to Meretz and the chances of such a complex alliance to prosper depends only on how motivated its members are to unseat Netanyahu.
The survey further delved into the impact a potential bid by popular Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Huldai would have on national politics.
Huldai has been rumored to mull a Knesset run potentially forming a party to which Telem chair Moshe Ya'alon and former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot would join.
Such a party could gnaw at the Right, as with it in play, Likud would win 26 seats, Sa'ar 16, and Huldai's party would win nine Knesset seats.
Should Eizenkot join forces with Sa'ar, the latter's party is projected to win 22 mandates to Likud's 26.
Should Yesh Atid and Blue and White reunite, the party would win 18 seats – one less than if they vied for parliament separately.
The poll further found that 46% of the public favors holding elections despite it being the fourth time in two years the public would be going to the polls.
Thirty-seven percent oppose elections and 17% said they had no opinion on the matter.
Asked who they believed is most suited for the role of the prime minister, 38% of the respondents named Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Sa'ar garnered the support of 18% of the respondents, followed by Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid (15%), Yamina leader Naftali Bennett (13%), Blue and White leader Benny Gantz (8%), Huldai (6%), and Eizenkot (2%).
On the question of who is best suited to confront the Iranian threat, 47% named Netanyahu, 12% chose Gantz, another 12% selected Eizenkot, 10% named Bennett, 9% - Sa'ar, 7% chose Lapid, and 3% selected Huldai.
Asked who they believed could best tackle the coronavirus crisis, Netanyahu garnered the support of 30% of the respondents, followed by Bennett (24%), Lapid (14%), Sa'ar (14%), Gantz (8%), Huldai (7%), and Eizenkot (3%).
As for which leader would best represent Israel vis-à-vis the administration of US President-elect Joe Biden, 42% of those polled named Netanyahu, 17% chose Lapid, 15% favored Sa'ar, 9% selected Bennett, 8% opted for Gantz, 6% named Huldai, and 3% named Eizenkot.
The survey also examined whether the public would view a Center-Left government with an external support of the Joint Arab List as legitimate: 39% of respondents said yes, while 49% said no, and 12% said they had no opinion on the matter.
However, with respect to a right-wing government backed by Ra'am head MK Mansour Abbas, only 33% believed such a government would be legitimate, 49% said it would not be legitimate, and 19% gave various other answers.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
