Next year will see a major shift in Israel's intelligence community, as the head of military intelligence, as well as the directors of the Israel Security Agency, more commonly known as the Shin Bet, and the Mossad intelligence agency will end their term in office.
ISA Director Nadav Argaman is expected to end his term in office in May 2021, with "expected" being the key word.
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Israel's General Security Service Law, passed in 2002 with the aim of regulating the Shin Bet's operations, states that the agency's director will be named for a five-year term. Sources close to Argaman said he would like nothing but to retire on time, but this might not be the case: the law allows the government to extend the ISA director's tenure by one year and there is a substantial chance Argaman would be asked to do so.
This is no obvious reason for that to happen – the law allows for said extension under "unusual circumstances" and these are not in place. Argaman himself speaks of the need to invigorate the agency's top echelon, to bring in "new blood." Asked who he thinks should be his successor, he always says the same thing – to be the Shin Bet's director you must first be the agency's deputy director.
This statement can be taken at face value: the deputy director knows the organization inside and out and his performance as No. 2, which often includes clashing with politicians, is telling of his potential aptitude to head Israel's domestic security service.
This, by the way, is why any candidate for the position of the IDF's chief of staff must first serve as the deputy chief of staff.
Argaman has had two deputies, both "Rs": the first R. was the head of the ISA's southern desk and later the ISA's bureau chief, and the second R. was head of the agency's operational directorate and later its bureau chief.
Both officers are very experienced and highly qualified; each choice has its pros and cons, and both are natural candidates to follow in Argaman's footspets.
However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – Argaman's direct superior – may have other plans and he may name National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat, one of his closest confidants, to the role.
Ben-Shabbat is a graduate of the Shin Bet, having served as head of its counterterrorism division, head of the cyber division, and head of its southern desk. But he was never the deputy director.
This may not matter to Netanyahu, who unsuccessfully tried to promote his former military secretary, Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir, to the post of IDF chief of staff despite the fact Zamir had not served as deputy chief of staff.
The move met considerable pushback from the defense establishment and resulted in IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi's appointment, with Zamir as his deputy.
Kochavi's term as chief of staff will end in 2022, and Zamir will be able to throw his hat in the ring as the natural candidate – with Netanyahu's support, assuming he is still in office).
Kan 11 News reported this week that a string of top Shin Bet officers have warned that if Ben-Shabbat is tapped for the role they will resign. Argaman's two deputies will surely do so, but the threat reflects something else, as it has less to do with criticism over whether Ben-Shabbat is right for the role and more to do with the fact that he is Netanyahu's confidant, who in the past has done the prime minister's political bidding.
Behind closed doors, Ben-Shabbat claims that he is not interested in being appointed director of the Shin Bet. That assertion should be taken with a grain of salt – anyone who serves in a high-profile organization naturally aspires to lead it.
It is more likely that he knows that any comment on the subject could increase the criticism leveled at him. He also knows that Netanyahu, who makes it a point to work only with people he absolutely trusts, may ask everyone to let things stand for now, meaning leave Argaman and Ben-Shabbat in their current roles and postpone the decision for another year.
In any case, as long as the current government is in office, any decision will require the consent of prime minister-designate Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, and will undoubtedly want to influence the selection of the next ISA chief and national security adviser. This, too, could potentially postpone the decision for the time being.
Even under this scenario, the issue of personal loyalty will continue hovering over the process, which is bad for everyone – especially for the public.
In these positions – IDF chief of staff, military intelligence chief, police commissioner and the directors of the Mossad and the Shin Bet, as well as the attorney general and the state attorney - loyalty must be to the kingdom, not to the king.
These people must all be able to look directly at the prime minister – any prime minister – and tell him their professional truth, even if it does not coincide with his political positions or interests.
Over at the Mossad, Director Yossi Cohen's five-year term has already been extended by six months. Vying for the role are his two deputies – A. and D. – but Netanyahu may name an outside candidate.
This will not be taken kidney by the agency, which is seeing one of its best operational times in years. "This will be a slap in the face," a high-ranking Mossad officer said this week. "You can understand naming an external candidate in a time of crisis when a change is warranted or you need to shake things up. That is not the case."
The Military Intelligence Directorate is also facing a change at the helm.
Maj. Gen. Tamir Hayman will retire from the post next year, and in the running for the role are Head of the IDF Operations Directorate Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliwa, Head of C4I Maj. Gen. Lior Carmeli, and Netanyahu's former military secretary and former Gaza Division Commander Brig. Gen. Eliezer Toledano.
There have been several MI chiefs for whom this was the first role in the General Staff, including Kochavi and GOC Southern Command Maj. Gen. Herzl Halevi, but this highly sensitive role has always benefited from having a more experienced officer manning it.
A changing of the guards across all three intelligence bodies simultaneously is less than desirable. It takes time to grow into these roles, to develop the discretion and instincts necessary for them, and to earn the respect and the trust of their other members.
An entirely new senior intelligence-operational echelon that is essentially inexperienced spells a bumpy ride, which could also exact a price.
The best approach is gradual – seeing the chance through one agency at a time, all while improving the working relationship between the heads of the three organizations.
It is no secret that there is no love lost between Argaman, Cohen and Hayman. The three's relationship has had its up and downs – insiders say mostly downs – and they have been rife with criticism, some warranted and some not. Their replacements will have to rise above that, as well as rise above any pressure from the political echelon, and put one thing above all else – national security.
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