Until former Likud minister Gideon Sa'ar threw his hat into the ring, Yamina leader Naftali Bennett and his people were resting easy near the top of the polls, which were predicting they would win the second-largest number of seat, making Bennett a viable candidate for prime minister. Sa'ar's entrance has cost Yamina, seeing the party drop to 12-13 projected seats and slowing its momentum.
Despite the drop, Yamina appeared to be encouraged, mostly because it sees its base increasing.
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"Until not too long ago, our base was six seats, and now it's double that, 12 seats. That's good, important stability," party sources said.
Bennett has avoiding making any public declarations about his intention of taking over as prime minister from Benjamin Netanyahu until it was certain that Israel would indeed be holding another election. Now that has happened, with the Knesset dissolving itself at midnight Tuesday, Bennett is expected to lay his cards on the table within a ew days.
The upcoming election, scheduled for March 23, 2021, will be characterized by two camps: "Only Bibi" (the Likud and the Haredi parties) and "Anyone but Bibi" (Sa'ar, Avigdor Lieberman, Yair Lapid, and others). Yamina is planning to be a third bloc and announce that Bennett intends to take over from Netanyahu, but not refuse to join a Netanyahu government if the numbers don't go their way. Party sources are saying, "What will happen if Gideon Sa'ar decides things? Will he join a government supported by [Arab party] Balad? Take us to another election? The fact that he is saying 'Anyone but Bibi' could cause trouble for him. With us, all the options are open."
Yamina thinks that thus far, its voters have been made up of two groups: religious Zionists, right-wing, and Likud voters who do not want to see Netanyahu stay in power, and center and even left-wing voters who are protesting the government's handling of the COVID crisis and want to see Netanyahu out. Yamina thinks that a third group has "defected" to support Gideon Sa'ar.
Yamina does not intend to present a list of "celebrities" as it has in the past, but will compile a list of candidates with proven records of work in the private and public sector, including candidates from the periphery.
Until the deadline to submit party lists for the March 2021 election (Feb. 3 or 4), Yamina will attempt to negotiate with MK Bezalel Smotrich, who plans to assemble a list for his own National Union party. If they want to run on a joint ticket, Bennett and Smotrich will have to reach agreements about the list, as well as major issues.
Israel Hayom recently quoted officials in Yamina saying that "If on the day the party lists are submitted, Bennett and Smotrich wind up running together, it will be with the understanding that no government will be formed that includes Lieberman and Lapid."
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