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Home Special Coverage 2021 Election Election Insight

Leading in polls might not bode well for Netanyahu

When you lead the election polls by a two-digit gap it can be challenging to convince your supporters that every vote counts.

by  Mati Tuchfeld
Published on  02-09-2021 11:06
Last modified: 02-09-2021 11:06
Once a close Netanyahu ally, Sa'ar emerges as his top challengerGideon Markowicz

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu | File photo: Gideon Markowicz

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For months, the opposition has been claiming that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could not possibly appear in court in the morning and conduct state affairs the same evening. However, on Monday, the prime minister did just that.

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Those claims, like many others in politics, had nothing to do with reality. Contrary to expectations, the person who dealt with the opening of the trial on Monday and the day before was Netanyahu himself. Moreover, those who barely touched on the subject were his political rivals, the very people who were supposed to jump at this long-coveted opportunity. 

As long as there is no development in the trial, such as a new prosecution witness who can shed more light on Netanyahu's alleged actions, the chances that Likud or other party members will join the opposition are slim. 

That is most likely why Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, New Hope head Gideon Sa'ar and Labor chief Merav Michaeli did not attack on Monday. 

The person who stands to gain the most from the legal situation is Netanyahu himself. After parties have submitted their lists for the 24th Knesset, the prime minister has no worthy opponent. 

Netanyahu needs an opponent like that in order to create the necessary tension, which will lead his supporters to the voting booths on election day. Otherwise, when he leads the election polls by a two-digit margin, it will be very difficult for him to convince his supporters that every vote counts.

And indeed, the upcoming election can be decided by a single vote. When it comes to numbers, it is difficult to make the public understand that even with thirty seats in the Knesset, the government might nevertheless be formed by the second person in line, whose party has 15 seats. 

The Likud staff released a video ahead of the hearing that included two central motifs: the justice system and how it is haunting Netanyahu for being "a strong leader of the Right" and Yair Lapid, the only politician Netanyahu mentions explicitly. 

Netanyahu would prefer to turn Lapid into his primary opponent, but he knows that the opposition leader can also disappoint. Lapid has the same glass ceiling that will leave Netanyahu far at the top and him in danger of losing the election due to voter indifference. 

That is the reason why Netanyahu is creating the desired tension with the justice system as well. Since the beginning of the election campaign, he has been careful to remain relatively dignified. Let his rivals attack him, while he will speak of nothing but the peace agreements and the vaccines. Speaking out against the justice system is a detour from the path he wanted to take, but he might have no choice. There have been signs of such a detour already this week. 

Netanyahu is going to present the justice system, the lawyers, and the judges, as those who came together to remove him from a position of power by making up indictments. The Likud will take advantage of this throughout its entire campaign.

They will exaggerate the opponent's shortcomings, just like it is done in every election campaign, sprinkling a dash of truth here and there. After her colleagues claimed that there was no flaw in the process of opening an investigation against the prime minister, in Monday's hearing Liat Ben-Ari, the lead attorney in criminal cases against Netanyahu, already sounded a little different.

How fortunate is Netanyahu that the prosecution is helping him build a case against itself, undoubtedly better than he would have done on his own. 

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