Israel's political parties seem somehow unfazed by the fact that the March 23 elections are a mere month away. Pandemic aside, election campaigns have been partially dormant: there are no posters hanging from bridges, barely any activity on the ground, and even the mud-slinging is minimal this time around.
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While much can happen in a month – a small eternity in political terms – it is likely that any partisan ammunition is being held back until the final stretch. The parties simply do not want to waste time, energy and resources on moves that will fade from electoral memory before they have a chance to make any actual impact.
The elections' agenda is also rigid as anything non-coronavirus-related is not a priority.
Another reason may have to do with the battle waged by the smaller parties, where every vote can determine whether they cross the four-seat electoral threshold and the general fight over undecided votes a
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for instance, is accustomed to launching an aggressive last-minute campaign that grabs votes away from the smaller right-wing parties, essentially making them stick to the bloc to ensure their survival.
That doesn't always end well, however. That overly aggressive strategy left Naftali Bennett's New Right party out of parliament in the April 2019 elections and was eventually Netanyahu's downfall as those missing mandates prevented him from forming a government.
This time around, Netanyahu has to worry about the Religious Zionist Party, whose performance in the polls has been erratic and is currently teetering on the brink of the electoral threshold.
Over on the Left, voters have to decide whether Labor and Meretz, which have become virtually identical parties, should ascend to parliament separately.
Early polls predicted Labor's demise in the coming elections while giving Meretz an average of five seats. But the situation changed after Merav Michaeli was elected Labor leader. She has been able to revive the party, now projected to win six or seven mandates, but that clearly came at Meretz's expense, as the party has begun faltering in the polls.
Most see it scraping by the electoral threshold, winning just four seats.
This could hamper the Center-Left bloc's attempts to unseat Netanyahu. Yesh Atid is not exactly breathing down Likud's neck but while party leader Yair Lapid would love nothing more than to increase his power but he knows that taking away too many votes from the smaller parties in the bloc would backfire.
Both Labor and Meretz now face the unprecedented situation of vying for the same votes. It is not inconceivable that once the dust settles, Israeli political will be unable to accommodate two parties with near-identical platforms.
And then there is Blue and White. Party leader Benny Gantz refuses to bow out of the race, despite the growing calls to do so, and no party seems to want to merge with him over the fact that he opted to join Netanyahu's government after the September elections in what was essentially a breach of his primary campaign promise.
If Gantz doesn't quit the race, his party's votes could be lost and that poses a serious challenge for Lapid, who needs them to cement his lead as the next potential prime minister.
The question remains: will the heads of the major parties keep the campaign on a slow simmer so as not to undermine their chances, or risk taking political shots that may backfire.
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