Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid is highly unlikely to be able to form a coalition even though all polls project his party will become the second-largest in the Knesset in the wake of next month's elections.
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Chances were plausible until partner-turned-rival Yamina leader Naftali Bennett announced Tuesday that he will neither back Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following the March 23 elections nor will he join the Center-Left bloc.
Still, not all hope is lost because Lapid has New Hope leader Gideon Sa'ar in his corner. Sa'ar – once an ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and now a rival determined to unseat him – is expected to leader parliament's third-largest faction, and as the election campaign marches on, the extent of the collaboration between the two is becoming more evident, and make no mistake – they are hell-bent on ousting the prime minister.
New Hope is in a precarious position. While the newest player on the political playground has so far proven to be very popular, an in-depth analysis of the internal polls shows that 70% of the votes Sa'ar is expected to win could just as easily go to Lapid. These are anti-Netanyahu voters who will not support any party they think could even consider joining a Likud-led government following the March 23 vote.
Lapid, however, has deviated from the familiar script of premiership hopefuls and has not faced off with Netanyahu. This tactic has usually been employed in an effort to shore up votes and be as-close-as-possible second to Likud, something that automatically makes who heads said party a candidate for the position of prime minister.
Despite what is currently a 10-seat disparity between Likud and Yesh Atid, Lapid's campaign is not trying to court votes away from Sa'ar – or from any other Center-Left party. This way, he hopes to cement his position as the bloc's natural candidate for PM.
Many attribute this camping strategy to a secret deal between the two party leaders – something both have denied. Lapid and Sa'ar have described their collaboration as an incidental convergence of political interests, not a planned maneuver.
Some, however, believe this is anything but a coincidence, saying the two communicate directly and personally, having eliminated the use of advisers or go-between to coordinate their moves.
One has to remember that Lapid isn't going after Sa'ar because the latter serves his purpose. Since entering politics ahead of the 2013 elections, Lapid – formally a high-profile journalist and TV personality-turned-aggressive politician – has been undermined by his own image.
His pre-political celebrity has been getting in his way, which is something his former political partners – Telem leader Moshe Ya'alon and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz – have said in real-time.
Joining forces in any way with Sa'ar could help Lapid soften his image for voters who are averse to him. While it is unclear who of the two will be prime minister if they end up striking a rotation agreement following the elections, but Lapid has already said it should be the one leading the bigger party, and if it is Sa'ar, so be it.
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